• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull distribution analysis

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An Application of the Probability Plotting Positions for the Ln­least Method for Estimating the Parameters of Weibull Wind Speed Distribution (와이블 풍속 분포 파라미터 추정을 위한 Ln­least 방법의 확률도시위치 적용)

  • Kang, Dong-Bum;Ko, Kyung-Nam
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.11-25
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    • 2018
  • The Ln-least method is commonly used to estimate the Weibull parameters from the observed wind speed data. In previous studies, the bin method has been used to calculate the cumulative frequency distribution for the Ln-least method. The purpose of this study is to obtain better performance in the Ln-least method by applying probability plotting position(PPP) instead of the bin method. Two types of the wind speed data were used for the analysis. One was the observed wind speed data taken from three sites with different topographical conditions. The other was the virtual wind speed data which were statistically generated by a random variable with known Weibull parameters. Also, ten types of PPP formulas were applied which were Hazen, California, Weibull, Blom, Gringorten, Chegodayev, Cunnane, Tukey, Beard and Median. In addition, in order to suggest the most suitable PPP formula for estimating Weibull parameters, two accuracy tests, the root mean square error(RMSE) and $R^2$ tests, were performed. As a result, all of PPPs showed better performances than the bin method and the best PPP was the Hazen formula. In the RMSE test, compared with the bin method, the Hazen formula increased estimation performance by 38.2% for the observed wind speed data and by 37.0% for the virtual wind speed data. For the $R^2$ test, the Hazen formula improved the performance by 1.2% and 2.7%, respectively. In addition, the performance of the PPP depended on the frequency of low wind speeds and wind speed variability.

Probabilistic Analysis on the Fatigue-Life of the Strengthened Bridge Decks (성능향상된 교량 바닥판에서의 피로수명에 대한 확률론적 해석)

  • 심종성;오홍섭;류승무;박성재
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.393-398
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    • 2002
  • This study shows the fatigue test results of experiment on the strengthened slabs, the probability analysis of the fatigue behavior is also presented. Static und fatigue tests were performed on bridge decks strengthened with fiber plastics(Carbon Fiber Sheet, Glass Fiber Sheet, Grid Type Carbon Fiber). In this study, to analyze the probabilistic distribution of the fatigue life, the Weibull distribution was adopted. The Weibull distribution coefficient is inferred from the S-N diagram and the number of repeated load. As the result analysis, as the stress level is higher, the fatigue limit of the strengthened bridge deck are similarly discovered but in the range of the fatigue limit, CG specimen that was strengthened with Grid Type Carbon was proved most effective of reinforcement.

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A Study on Statistical Distribution of Muzzle Velocity of 155mm Propelling Charge (155mm 추진장약 포구속도의 확률분포 특성 연구)

  • Park, Sung-Ho;Park, No-Seok;Choi, Beong-Doo;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2009.11a
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    • pp.339-343
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    • 2009
  • The aim of the study was to investigate the statistical distribution of muzzle velocity of 155mm propelling charge K676 which is for the use of K9, a korean 155mm self-propelled artillery. A plenty of muzzle velocity data were collected from lot assessment test of propelling charge. The muzzle velocity of each test round is compensated by reference round. In the present work, the detailed statistical analysis of the muzzle velocity data is carried out using probability models including normal, Weibull 2-parameter and Weibull 3-parameter distributions. The results of goodness of fit test showed that the normal distribution described more appropriately the experimentally measured muzzle velocity data and the Weibull distribution is also applicable. The coefficient of variation showed that the mass production capability of each propelling charge lot has been maintained.

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Statistical Analysis using Weibull Distribution on the Dielectric Breakdown Strength of High Density Polyethylene Films (HDPE필름 절연파괴강도의 Weibull분포에 의한 통계적 해석)

  • Kang, Moo-Sung;Kang, Dae-Yong;Park, Dae-Hee
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1997.07e
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    • pp.1702-1704
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    • 1997
  • 본 논문은 HDPE 필름의 절연성능을 평가하기 위하여 절연파괴강도의 결과를 Weibull분에 적용하였다. 각 절연파괴강도의 Weibull분포로부터 형의 모수를 구하였다. 또한 Weibull분포의 활용은 2개 및 3개의 모수법을 각각 적용시켜 절연파괴강도의 평가를 하였다. HDPE 필름을 열화시켜, 형의 모수변화를 비교하였다. 이와같은 Weibull분포의 활용은 절연성능과 수명의 평가를 통계적으로 평가코져 한다.

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Statistical Distribution of Fatigue Life of Composite Materials for Small Wind-Turbine Blades (소형풍력발전 블레이드용 복합재료의 피로수명 분포에 대한 확률론적 평가)

  • Kang, Ki-Weon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.35 no.10
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    • pp.1281-1289
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    • 2011
  • This paper deals with several statistical distribution functions for the analysis of fatigue life data of composite laminates for small wind-turbine blades. A series of tensile tests was performed on triaxial glass/epoxy laminates for loading directions of $0^{\circ}$, $45^{\circ}$, and $90^{\circ}$. Then, fatigue tests were carried out to determine the fatigue life at the aforementioned loading directions and the fatigue stresses at four levels. Two-parameter Weibull, three-parameter Weibull, normal, and log-normal distributions were used to fit the fatigue life data of the triaxial composite laminates. The three-parameter Weibull distribution most accurately described the fatigue life data measured experimentally for all the cases considered. Furthermore, the variation of fatigue life was simultaneously affected by the loading direction and fatigue stress level.

Study on Localized Corrosion Cracking of Alloy 600 using EN-DCPD Technique (EN-DCPD 방법을 이용한 Alloy 600 재료의 국부부식균열 연구)

  • Lee, Yeon-Ju;Kim, Sung-Woo;Kim, Hong-Pyo;Hwang, Seong-Sik
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2013
  • The object of this work is to establish an electrochemical noise(EN) measurement technique combined with a direct current potential drop(DCPD) method for monitoring of localized corrosion cracking of nickel-based alloy, and to analyze its mechanism. The electrochemical current and potential noises were measured under various conditions of applied stress to a compact tension specimen in a simulated primary water chemistry of a pressurized water reactor. The amplitude and frequency of the EN signals were evaluated in both time and frequency domains based on a shot noise theory, and then quantitatively analyzed using statistical Weibull distribution function. From the spectral analysis, the effect of the current application in DCPD was found to be effectively excluded from the EN signals generated from the localized corrosion cracking. With the aid of a microstructural analysis, the relationship between EN signals and the localized corrosion cracking mechanism was investigated by comparing the shape parameter of Weibull distribution of a mean time-to-failure.

A Method for Reliability Analysis of Process Facilities under Changing Operating Conditions (운전조건이 변화하는 공정설비의 신뢰도 분석기법)

  • Choi Soo Hyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.7 no.4 s.21
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    • pp.20-23
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    • 2003
  • The analysis of reliabilities of process facilities often uses models based on the Weibull distribution. The parameters in these models are functions of operating conditions, and determined by experiments. Using these values, we calculate the reliability, mean time to failure, and standard deviation. The conventional method assumes that the operating condition is constant, and thus treats the model parameters as constants. In this paper, a reliability function is proposed which is applicable when the scale parameter is a function of time, and an analysis method based on this is also presented. A case study on a cooling fan resulted in a big difference from the conventional method to which the average operating conditions were applied. The proposed method is also applicable to other process facilities, and expected to effectively take into account the effects of changes in the operating conditions on the reliabilities of the facilities.

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Weibull Statistical Analysis on Mechanical Properties in ZrO2 with SiC Additive (SiC 첨가한 ZrO2의 기계적 특성에 대한 와이블 통계 해석)

  • Nam, Ki Woo;Kim, Seon Jin;Kim, Dae Sik
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.9
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    • pp.901-907
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    • 2015
  • The Vickers hardness test is a common method used to characterize the hardness of ceramic materials. However, the hardness is not a deterministic value, but is a random variable. The objective of this paper is to investigate the statistical properties of the bending strength and a set of Vickers hardness values in single $ZrO_2$ and composite $ZrO_2/SiC$ with a SiC additive. In this work, we compare the characteristic value and variation with the results based on Weibull statistical analysis. The probability distributions of the bending strength and Vickers hardness agreed relatively well with the Weibull distribution. We evaluate the scale parameter and shape parameter in asreceived $ZrO_2$ and $ZrO_2/SiC$ composite ceramics, as well as in their heat treated ceramics.

Analysis of Extreme Wave Conditions for Long-Term Wave Observation Data Considering Directionality (방향성을 고려한 장기 파랑관측자료의 극치파랑조건 분석)

  • Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.700-711
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    • 2022
  • In this study, deepwater design waves were estimated for 16 wave directions and various return periods based on statistical analysis of extreme waves observed for more than 20 years at three stations (Chilbal-do, Geomun-do, Donghae). These values were compared with design waves estimated based on the omni-directional wave data. The Weibull distribution was used as the probability distribution function whose parameters were determined by the least square method. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied for the goodness of fit test. Notably, the directional design waves were smaller than the omni-directional design wave for every wave direction. The maximum 50-year wave heights for directional sectors were 7.46 m (NNE), 12.05 m (S), and 9,59 m (SSW) at Chilbal-do, Geomun-do and Donghae whereas those for uni-directional wave data were 7.91 m, 13.82 m and 10.38 m, respectively. This implied possible under-estimation of the deepwater design waves for 16 wave directions being currently used in the design of offshore and coastal structures.

Prediction of Laminate Composite Strength Using Probabilistic Approach (확률분포를 이용한 복합재료의 강도예측)

  • 조영준;강태진;이경우
    • Composites Research
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.33-39
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    • 2000
  • A numerical approach for predicting the ultimate strength of laminate composites has been studied using the Weibull distribution of the strengths of lamina plies. The probabilistic initial failure strengths of laminates were calculated using Tsai-Hill failure criterion. The ultimate strength of the laminate composites has been predicted using progressive failure analysis. The experimental results show that the strength prediction based on the Weibull distribution of ply strength reasonably agrees well with the experimentals better than equal strength assumption.

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