• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull distribution analysis

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Temperature-dependent Development Model of Hawaiian Beet Webworm Spoladea recurvalis Fabricius (Lepidoptera: Pyraustinae) (흰띠명나방의 온도발육 모형)

  • Lee, Sang-Ku;Kim, Ju;Cheong, Seong-Soo;Kim, Yeon-Kook;Lee, Sang-Guei;Hwang, Chang-Yeon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2013
  • The Hawaiian beet webworm (Spoladea recurvalis) is one of the serious insect pests found on red beet (Beta vulgaris var. conditiva) in Korea. The study was conducted to investigate the development period of S. recurvalis at various constant temperatures, 15.0, 17.5, 20.0, 22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5 and $35.0^{\circ}C$, with $65{\pm}5%$ RH and a photoperiod of 16L:8D. The developmental period from egg to pre-adult was 51.0 days at $17.5^{\circ}C$ and 14.6 days at $35.0^{\circ}C$. The developmental period of S. recurvalis was decreased with increasing temperature. The relationship between the developmental rate and temperature was fitted well by linear regression analysis ($R^2{\geq}0.87$). The lower developmental threshold and effective accumulative temperature of the total immature stage were $10.4^{\circ}C$ and 384.7 degree days, respectively. The nonlinear relationship between the temperature and developmental rate was well described by the Lactin model. The relationship between the cumulative frequency and normalized distributions of the developmental period for each life stage were fitted to the Weibull function with $R^2=0.63{\sim}0.87$.

Scientific rationale and applicability of dose-response models for environmental carcinogens (환경성 발암물질의 용량-반응모델의 이론적 근거와 응용에 관한 연구 - 음용수 중 chloroform을 중심으로)

  • Shin, Dong-Chun;Chung, Yong;Kim, Jong-Man;Lee, Seong-Im;Hwang, Man-Sik
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.29 no.1 s.52
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    • pp.27-41
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    • 1996
  • This study described methods to predict human health risk associated with exposure to environmental carcinogens using animal bioassay data. Also, biological assumption for various dose-response models were reviewed. To illustrate the process of risk estimate using relevant dose-response models such as Log-normal, Mantel-Bryan, Weibull and Multistage model, we used four animal carcinogenesis bioassy data of chloroform and chloroform concentrations of tap water measured in large cities of Korea from 1987 to 1995. As a result, in the case of using average concentration in exposure data and 95% upper boud unit risk of Multistge model, excess cancer risk(RISK I) was about $1.9\times10^{-6}$, in the case of using probability distribution of cumulative exposure data and unit risks, those risks(RISK II) which were simulated by Monte-Carlo analysis were about $2.4\times10^{-6}\;and\;7.9\times10^{-5}$ at 50 and 95 percentile, respectively. Therefore risk estimated by Monte-Carlo analysis using probability distribution of input variables may be more conservative.

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Reliability Assessment Criteria of Module for the LED traffic signal (LED 교통신호등용 모듈의 신뢰성평가기준)

  • Kim, Jin-Sheon;Park, Chang-Kyu;Kim, Dae-Kyung;Jeong, Hai-Sung
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.265-278
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    • 2010
  • Module of the LED traffic signal is the core component for the care of driver and walker. Also it is important one to control the traffic. If it is against the criteria of brightness, it is the source of the people's death and traffic congestion. Therefore, it is a list of articles desired the security of stability. However, there is not the analysis of failure and not preserve the uniformity of quality. Therefore, it is necessary to establish the criteria of appreciation for the module of the LED traffic signal to analysis the data of failure. In this paper, we investigate the performance test, environment field test and test of reliability appreciation to improve the reliability. We also set up the criteria of success decision using the real measurement data.

A Study on Efficient Work Force Supply-Demand According to the Employment Permit System for Foreigners (외국인 고용허가제 도입에 따른 효율적 노동인력 수급에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Heung-Jae;Park, Jae-Hyun;Kang, Kyung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 2007
  • The employment permit system for foreigners, which stresses introduction of foreign work force in a legal manner rather than in the position of being trainees, is anticipated to efficiently improve introduction and the overall management system of foreign work force and related difficulties such as illegal alien problems, absurdity on sending laborers overseas. In this paper, a prospective model of supply and demand of work force has been developed basing on various categories of industries and patterns about nationally practical foreign employees to look over efficient supply and demand of work force suiting employment of foreigner among foreign work force policies. To propose the prospective model, we have derived industry- and pattern-related matrixes of foreign laborers basing on Inter-Industry Analysis Method put forth by Professor Leontiyef in 1930, and through the derived matrix assessed repercussions concerning overall domestic industries and foreigner types and decided yearly weight; the capacity of supply and demand of foreign laborers can be compared through proposed statistical estimation and government estimation by combining the determined weight with yearly incomes of foreign laborers. This paper has thoroughly considered the particularity of our employment permit system for foreigners and applied the Weibull distribution and incorporated the dependence of foreign laborers during the limited period of 3 years to the industry relation analysis, ultimately proposing an efficient supply and demand method about domestic foreign work force.

A Study on the Real Condition and Life Time of the RCD (누전차단기 실태조사 및 교체주기에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Chong-Min;Choi, Myeong-Il;Kim, Young-Seok;Bang, Sun-Bae;Shong, Kil-Mok;Seo, Jung-Youl
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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    • v.59 no.4
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    • pp.467-472
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    • 2010
  • In this study, an analysis of the used RCD's condition is conducted to assess the effect on environment of installation area, terms of use, corrosion, contamination etc. According to KS C 4613, the used RCDs were tested to get date which is the RCD's life time. And then, the date is analysed using Minitab which is a statistical program for reliability analysis. As a result, The RCD's MTTF for the all samples is $12.7{\pm}0.23$ years. and the MTTF of RCDs which are used indoor area is $12.9{\pm}0.34$ years, the MTTF of RCDs which are used outdoor area is $11.9{\pm}0.30$ years. Futhermore, the MTTF of RCDs which are used in dry area is a $13.1{\pm}0.26$ years, the MTTF of RCDs which are used in dust area is $13.0{\pm}0.57$ years, the MTTF of RCDs which are used in moisture area is $8.4{\pm}0.77$ years.

Estimation of Accident Probability for Dynamic Risk Assessment (동적 위험 분석을 위한 사고확률 추정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Byeong-Cheol Park;Chae-Og Lim;In-Hyuk Nam;Sung-Chul Shin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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    • v.26 no.2_2
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    • pp.315-325
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    • 2023
  • Recently, various dynamic risk analysis methods have been suggested for estimating the risk index by predicting the possibility of accidents and damage. It is necessary to maintain and support the safety system for responding to accidents by continuously updating the probability of accidents and the results of accidents, which are quantitative standards of ship risk. In this study, when a LNG leakage that may occur in the LN G Fuel Gas Supply System (FGSS) room during LN G bunkering operation, a reliability physical model was prepared by the change in monitoring data as physical parameters to estimate the accident probability. The scenario in which LNG leakage occur were configured with FT (Fault Tree), and the coefficient of the covariate model and Weibull distribution was estimated based on the monitoring data. The possibility of an LNG leakage, which is the top event of FT, was confirmed by changes in time and monitoring data. A method for estimating the LNG leakage based on the reliability physical analysis is proposed, which supports fast decision-making by identifying the potential LNG leakage at the accident.

Building TRMS S/W based on Reliability Centered Maintenance (신뢰성 기반의 유지보수를 위한 TRMS S/W개발)

  • Ahn, E.J.;Lee, K.S.;Lee, K.S.;Kim, S.O.;Yoo, D.Y.;Kim, C.H.;Yoon, H.S.;Lee, I.H.;Oh, S.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.159-165
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    • 2010
  • In this paper the TRMS (Tilting Rolling-stock Maintenance System) that applies the concept of RAM (Reliability, Availability, and Maintainability) and RCM (Reliability Centered Maintenance) to Preventive and Corrective Maintenance Policy for TTX (Tilting Train Express) will be discussed. We will briefly introduce the RCM concepts and discus show these concepts and procedures are implemented in the TRMS S/W. In the TRMS S/W there are four modules, System and Operations Information Module, FMECA(Failure Modes, Effects, and Criticality Analysis)module, RAM Information Module, and RCM Analysis Module. The System and Operations Information Module provides the user interface for collection of systems and operations related data and the FMECA module provides a groundwork for the RCM analysis. The algorithms to calculate the reliability and failure rate for Weibull distribution and formulae to calculate the task intervals and task costs are proposed in the RAM and RCM Analysis Module respectively. There is a good possibility of applying RCM to other rolling stock maintenance systems if the benefit that RCM can brings to the maintenance world is fully recognized.

Analysis of Confidence Interval of Design Wave Height Estimated Using a Finite Number of Data (한정된 자료로 추정한 설계파고의 신뢰구간 분석)

  • Jeong, Weon-Mu;Cho, Hong-Yeon;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.191-199
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    • 2013
  • It is estimated and analyzed that the design wave height and the confidence interval (hereafter CI) according to the return period using the fourteen-year wave data obtained at Pusan New Port. The functions used in the extreme value analysis are the Gumbel function, the Weibull function, and the Kernel function. The CI of the estimated wave heights was predicted using one of the Monte-Carlo simulation methods, the Bootstrap method. The analysis results of the estimated CI of the design wave height indicate that over 150 years of data is necessary in order to satisfy an approximately ${\pm}$10% CI. Also, estimating the number of practically possible data to be around 25~50, the allowable error was found to be approximately ${\pm}$16~22% for Type I PDF and ${\pm}$18~24% for Type III PDF. Whereas, the Kernel distribution method, a typical non-parametric method, shows that the CI of the method is below 40% in comparison with the CI of the other methods and the estimated design wave height is 1.2~1.6 m lower than that of the other methods.

Fitting Cure Rate Model to Breast Cancer Data of Cancer Research Center

  • Baghestani, Ahmad Reza;Zayeri, Farid;Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil;Shojaee, Leyla;Khadembashi, Naghmeh;Shahmirzalou, Parviz
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.17
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    • pp.7923-7927
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    • 2015
  • Background: The Cox PH model is one of the most significant statistical models in studying survival of patients. But, in the case of patients with long-term survival, it may not be the most appropriate. In such cases, a cure rate model seems more suitable. The purpose of this study was to determine clinical factors associated with cure rate of patients with breast cancer. Materials and Methods: In order to find factors affecting cure rate (response), a non-mixed cure rate model with negative binomial distribution for latent variable was used. Variables selected were recurrence cancer, status for HER2, estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR), size of tumor, grade of cancer, stage of cancer, type of surgery, age at the diagnosis time and number of removed positive lymph nodes. All analyses were performed using PROC MCMC processes in the SAS 9.2 program. Results: The mean (SD) age of patients was equal to 48.9 (11.1) months. For these patients, 1, 5 and 10-year survival rates were 95, 79 and 50 percent respectively. All of the mentioned variables were effective in cure fraction. Kaplan-Meier curve showed cure model's use competence. Conclusions: Unlike other variables, existence of ER and PR positivity will increase probability of cure in patients. In the present study, Weibull distribution was used for the purpose of analysing survival times. Model fitness with other distributions such as log-N and log-logistic and other distributions for latent variable is recommended.

Life and Performance Degradation Characteristics for Small-Sized Plug-In Type Pneumatic Manifold Valves (플러그인형 소형 공기압 매니폴드 밸브의 수명 및 성능열화특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Bo-Sik;Lee, Choong-Sung;Kim, Hyoung-Eui
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.35 no.11
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    • pp.1445-1451
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    • 2011
  • Pneumatic valves are widely used parts that have the ability to control the air supplied to automation systems. However, if failure occurs in a pneumatic valve, it may affect the entire system and could lead to huge losses, depending on the characteristics of the system at the time of failure. Because of this significant risk and the level of consumer demand for reliability, there has been much study on ensuring the reliability of products by predicting valve lifetime distributions and degradation characteristics. In this paper, in order to determine the main factors useful for predicting the lifetime of a pneumatic valve, the scale parameter and $B_{10}$ life time value of the widely used plug-in-type pneumatic manifold valves were measured using complete observational data on the valve lifetimes. And also the property of life distribution has been distribution-suitabilityreviewed by correlation coefficients, the degradation characteristics of valve has been presented by the result of analysis through dynamic response time test and leakage test.