• 대기
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.153-176
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• 2024

At 0843 UTC 30 May 2021, a commercial aircraft encountered severe turbulence at z = 11.5 km associated with the rapid development of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) in the Gyeonggi Bay of Korea. To investigate the generation mechanisms of Near-Cloud Turbulence (NCT) near the MCS, Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to reproduce key features at multiple-scales with four nested domains (the finest ∆x = 0.2 km) and 112 hybrid vertical layers. Simulated subgrid-scale turbulent kinetic energy (SGS TKE) was located in three different regions of the MCS. First, the simulated NCT with non-zero SGS TKE at z = 11.5 km at 0835 UTC was collocated with the reported NCT. Cloud-induced flow deformation and entrainment process on the downstream of the overshooting top triggered convective instability and subsequent SGS TKE. Second, at z = 16.5 km at 0820 UTC, the localized SGS TKE was found 4 km above the overshooting cloud top. It was attributed to breaking down of vertically propagating convectively-induced gravity wave at background critical level. Lastly, SGS TKE was simulated at z = 11.5 km at 0930 UTC during the dissipating stage of MCS. Upper-level anticyclonic outflow of MCS intensified the environmental westerlies, developing strong vertical wind shear on the northeastern quadrant of the dissipating MCS. Three different generation mechanisms suggest the avoidance guidance for the possible NCT events near the entire period of the MCS in the heavy air traffic area around Incheon International Airport in Korea.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.573-584
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• 2017

In order to simulate a typhoon precisely, the satellite observation data has been assimilated using WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. The observation data used in 3DVAR was GPS Radio Occultation (GPS-RO) data which is loaded on Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite. The refractivity of Earth is deduced by temperature, pressure, and water vapor. GPS-RO data can be obtained with this refractivity when the satellite passes the limb position with respect to its original orbit. In this paper, two typhoon cases were simulated to examine the characteristics of data assimilation. One had been occurred in the Western Pacific from 16 to 25 October, 2015, and the other had affected Korean Peninsula from 22 to 29 August, 2012. In the simulation results, the typhoon track between background (BGR) and assimilation (3DV) run were significantly different when the track appeared to be rapidly change. The surface wind speed showed large difference for the long forecasting time because the GPS-RO data contained much information in the upper level, and it took a time to impact on the surface wind. Along with the modified typhoon track, the differences in the horizontal distribution of accumulated rain rate was remarkable with the range of -600~500 mm. During 7 days, we estimated the characteristics between daily assimilated simulation (3DV) and initial time assimilation (3DV_7). Because 3DV_7 demonstrated the accurate track of typhoon and its meteorological variables, the differences in two experiments have found to be insignificant. Using observed rain rate data at 79 surface observatories, the statistical analysis has been carried on for the evaluation of quantitative improvement. Although all experiments showed underestimated rain amount because of low model resolution (27 km), the reduced Mean Bias and Root-Mean-Square Error were found to be 2.92 mm and 4.53 mm, respectively.

• 대기
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.693-706
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• 2015

A shift of first fowering date (FFD) of spring blossoms (cherry, peach and pear) over the northest Asia under global warming is investiaged using dynamically downscaled daily temperature data with 12.5 km resolution. For the study, we obatained gridded daily data with Historical (1981~2010), and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (2021~2100) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios which were produced by WRFv3.4 in conjunction with HadGEM2-AO. A change on FFDs in 21st century is estimated by applying daily outputs of WRFv3.4 to DTS phonological model. Prior to projection on future climate, the performances of both WRFv3.4 and DTS models are evaluated using spatial distribution of climatology and SCR diagram (Normalized standard deviation-Pattern correlation coefficient-Root mean square difference). According to the result, WRFv3.4 and DTS models well simulated a feature of the terrain following characteristics and a general pattern of observation with a marigin of $1.4^{\circ}C$ and 5~6 days. The analysis reveals a projected advance in FFDs of cherry, peach and pear over the northeast Asia by 2100 of 15.4 days (9.4 days). 16.9 days (10.4 days) and 15.2 days (9.5 days), respectively, compared to the Historical simulation due to a increasing early spring (Februrary to April) temperature of about $4.9^{\circ}C$ ($2.9^{\circ}C$) under the RCP 8.5 (RCP 4.5) scenarios. This indicates that the current flowering of the cherry, peach and pear over analysis area in middle or end of April is expected to start blooming in early or middle of April, at the end of this century. The present study shows the dynamically downscaled daily data with high-resolution is helpeful in offering various useful information to end-users as well as in understanding regional climate change.