• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.47-71
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• 2012

The purpose of this research is the examination of validity of data as well as simulation model, i.e. to simulate the real data in the SD model with the least error using the adjustments for the faithful reflection of real data to the simulation. In general, SD programs (e.g. VENSIM) utilize the Euler or Runge-Kutta method as an algorithm. It is possible to reflect the trend of real data via these two estimation methods however can cause the validity problem in case of the simulation requiring the accuracy as they have endogenous errors. In this article, the future population estimated by the Korea National Statistical Office (KNSO) to 2050 is simulated by the aging chain model, dividing the population into three cohorts, 0-14, 15-64, 65 and over cohorts by age and offering the adjustments to them. Adjustments are calculated by optimization with three different methods, optimization in EXCEL, manual optimization with iterative calculation, and optimization in VENSIM DSS, the results are compared, and at last the optimal adjustment set with the least error are found among them. The simulation results with the pre-determined optimal adjustment set are validated by methods proposed by Barlas (1996) and other alternative methods. It is concluded that the result of simulation model in this research has no significant difference from the real data and reflects the real trend faithfully.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 1999년도 창립학술대회발표논문집
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• pp.59-86
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• 1999

조직행동론의 제 분야들 중에서 가장 다양한 이론들이 제시되고 있는 영역은 개인의 성취동기와 관련된 분야이다. 개인의 성취동기와 관련된 현상을 이해하고 설명하며 예측을 시도하려는 노력으로 다양한 이론들 내지는 개념적 모형들이 제시되어 왔다. 그러나 이론들을 일관성 있는 체계로서 통합하기란 상당히 어렵다. 이는 다양한 이론들을 통해 일관성 있게 정의된 구성개념이 없어 이론이나 모형들 간의 분명한 비교와 평가가 어렵기 때문이다. 또한 만족과 같은 주요 변수들에 대한 명확한 정의가 부족하기 때문이다 (Schwab ＆ Cummings, 1970)(중략)

• 한국건축시공학회지
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.221-228
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 아파트 개발 사업의 타당성 분석을 위한 시스템다이내믹스 모델을 개발하고 사례연구를 수행하고자 하였다. 연구에서는 기존의 아파트개발 사업 사례와 연구 프로젝트 자료들을 근거로 현금흐름 구성요소들을 도출하였고, 시스템사고 방법과 시스템다이내믹스 모델을 사용하여 이들 요소의 상호 영향관계를 찾고자 노력하였다. 연구에서는 모델을 정의하고 분석하기 위해 Vensim이라는 시스이내믹스 소프트웨어를 사용하였다. 이렇게 도출된 모델을 검증하기 위해 사례 연구를 진행하였으며, 사례연구 결과 연구에서 개발한 모델이 실제 프로젝트에 적용이 가능할 것으로 판단되었다. 연구에서 도출된 모델은 아파트 개발사업자들이 프로젝트의 초기단계에 프로젝트 파이낸싱과 관련한 의사결정에 도움이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.220-220
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• 2015

Water, energy, and food security already became a risk that threatens people around the world. Increasing of resources demand, rapid urbanization, decreasing of natural resources and climate change are four major problems inducing resources' scarcity. Indeed, water, energy, and food are interconnected each other thus cannot be analyzed separately. That is, for simple example, energy needs water as source for hydropower plant, water needs energy for distribution, and food needs water and energy for production, which is defined as W-E-F nexus. Due to their complicated linkage, it needs a computer model to simulate and analyze the nexus. Development of a computer simulation model using system dynamics approach makes this linkage possible to be visualized and quantified. System dynamics can be defined as an approach to learn the feedback connections of all elements in a complex system, which mean, every element's interaction is simulated simultaneously. Present W-E-F nexus models do not calculate and simulate the element's interaction simultaneously. Existing models only calculate the amount of water and energy resources that needed to provide food, water, or energy without any interaction from the product to resources. The new proposed model tries to cope these lacks by adding the interactions, climate change effect, and government policy to optimize the best options to maintain the resources sustainability. On this first phase of development, the model is developed only to learn and analyze the interaction between elements based on scenario of fulfilling the increasing of resources demand, due to population growth. The model is developed using the Vensim, well-known system dynamics model software. The results are amount of total water, energy, and food demand and production for a certain time period and it is evaluated to determine the sustainability of resources.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.77-88
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• 2021

중국에서의 빅데이터의 발전 과정은 비교적 짧아 10년 정도에 불과하다. 따라서 실제 생활에서의 구체적인 활용도는 높지 않으나, 공급망분야에서는 일부 성과를 보이고 있다. 공급망이 실제로 작동하는 과정에서 발생하는 각종 데이터를 효과적으로 분류·활용할 수 있다면, 공급망 운영 과정에서 발생하는 '채찍효과' 또한 개선될 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구의 목적은 빅데이터를 활용한 공급망 협업 재고 관리 모델과 응용 프레임워크의 개발이다. 본 연구에서는 "채찍효과"가 가장 뚜렷한 소비 업종인 중국의 맥주 업계 공급 체인을 분석하였으며, 시뮬레이션 및 민감도분석을 위해 Vensim을 사용하였다. 본 연구의 모델을 적용한 결과 맥주 업계 공급 체인의 각 참여 주체의 재고변화가 적어지는 의미 있는 결과를 발견하였다. 또한 이러한 연구가 더 큰 데이터를 갖는 공급망 협업 재고관리모델에도 적용될 수 있는 가능성을 제사하고, 공급망 협업 재고관리모델에서 발생할 수 있는 문제점 및 대응방안을 제시하였다.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.26-44
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• 2003

This study Is to forecast the damage of smallpox as a biological weapon and to measure the effect of potential responses (quarantine, vaccination and cure) to the spread of smallpox infection when a smallpox bioterrorism attack occurs. We designed the smallpox spreading simulation model through the literature study on a basis of some existing infectious disease models such as SIR, SEIR model by using Vensim program. In order to evaluate the performance of responses to smallpox, we measure the total infection population, infection sustaining duration, average infection rate and the infection spreading behavior of the smallpox. This study can help those who are related to the bioterrorism forecast the present and possible demage, and take more effective actions for minimizing the damage by smallpox bioterrorism.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2004년도 하계 학술대회 발표논문집
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• pp.109-128
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• 2004

The complexity of information and communication policy has been increasing due to its rapid changes and its expansions toward various fields. I used the2001, 2002 and 2003 White Papers on MIC(Ministry of Information and Communication Republic of Korea) as a reference and the Vensim PLE program to create a causal map. According to my analysis, no major feedback loop was found among the information and communication policies. Thus, it was impossible to conduct a causal map analysis on these policies. The causal map analysis is usually employed to understand a complex mechanism of entire policies by finding feedback loops among them. A lack of feedback loops makes it impossible to conduct the causal map analysis and means that the mechanism of such policies is even more complex to understand. The most important conclusion is that to consider feedback thought among the policies based on the systems thinking before making the policies.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.5-35
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• 2013

The study examines the play theory based internet rumor process by using simulating tools, Vensim, which offer a new theoretical basis from which to explore complex adaptive social system. Internet rumor is not a simple linear diffusion process, but a complex interaction behavior between the actors of production and diffusion. Rumor actors consist of two type of diffusion, which is rumor mongers and playful mongers. These two type of mongers make the internet rumor as collective system. Playful mongers play strategically to maximize playfulness. Internet rumor as play is consequence of collective framing constituted by dynamic interaction and playfulness. The networking space spreading internet rumor function as a playground which mobilize play rule, ignoring fact based framing. Rumor as paly, even though it turns out to be a false and loses the public attentions rumor sustains the game play function which makes the rumor without natural extinction. The study proves that playful mongers is a main actors in rumor play ground.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.61-71
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• 2003

Recently, a matter of the highest priority that the company must do for the satisfaction of customer service is that the company ensure the competitive power throughout the strategic cooperation in the market environment changing rapidly In this situation, one of allied strategies is the supply chain management and the outsourcing is one of the supply chain management strategies. In this paper, the inventory sharing system is introduced as the method to solve two inconsistency problem such as inventory and customer service. This paper also suggests how to increase customer service and to decrease inventory throughout construction of the inventory sharing system among outsourcing companies. For this, we experimented the effect of the inventory sharing system on the supply chain dynamics by using the simulation modeling and analyzed the validity about construction of the inventory sharing system presented in this study. The simulation is designed by Vensim(Process simulation package) and has some feedback loops.

• 한국국방경영분석학회지
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.1-19
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• 2002

This study shows the effect of inventory policy change from supplier-based to customer-based. We focus on the service level, cost, and information distortion of the Military Supply Chain(MSC) with System Dynamics. We design MSC model according to field practician interviews by using Vensim. The simulation makes a comparison between supply-based inventory policy performances and order-based inventory policy performances. In order to evaluate the MSC performances, we measure the accumulation of backlog(service level), supply chain cost, and order percentage overshoot(information distortion). The results show that 1) changing inventory policy from supplier-based to end customer order-based gets a good customer service, reduces MSC cost, and prevents information distortion, 2) changing inventory policy from supplier-based to immediate customer order-based reduces a small amount of MSC cost and deteriorates customer service, and 3) supply level is main factor for MSC performances improvement. This study implicates the policy change makes a improvement of MSC performance without introducing information system.