• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.25-39
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• 2023

As the scope of supply chains expands globally, unpredictable risks continue to arise. The occurrence of these supply chain risks affects port cargo throughput and hinders port operation. In order to examine the impact of global supply chain risks on port container throughput, this study conducted an empirical analysis on the impact of variables such as the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI), Industrial Production Index, and Retail Sales Index on port traffic using the vector autoregressive(VAR) model. As a result of the analysis, the rise in GSCPI causes a short-term decrease in the throughput of Busan Port, but after a certain point, it acts as a factor increasing the throughput and affects it in the form of a wave. In addition, the industrial production index and the retail sales index were found to have no statistically significant effect on the throughput of Busan Port. In the case of SCFI, the effect was almost similar to that of GSCPI. The results of this study reveal how risks affect port cargo throughput in a situation where supply chain risks are gradually increasing, providing many implications for establishing port operation policies for future supply chain risks.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.1-22
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• 2016

We analyzed the international comovements and structural changes in the quarterly real GDP by the Markov-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR) from 1971(1) to 2016(1). The main results of this study were as follows. First, the business cycle phenomenon that occurs in the models or individual time series in real GDP has been grasped through the MS-VAR models. Unlike previous studies, this study showed the significant comovements, asymmetry and structural changes in the MS-VAR model using a real GDP across countries. Second, even if there was a partial difference, there were remarkable structural changes in the economy contraction regime(recession), such as 1988(2) ending the global oil shock crisis and 2007(3) starting the global financial crisis by the MS-VAR model. Third, large-scale structural changes were generated in the economic expansion and/or contraction regime simultaneously among countries. We found that the second world oil shocks that occurred after the first global oil shocks of 1973 and 1974 were the main reasons that caused the large-scale comovements of the international real GDP among countries. In addition, the spillover between Korea and 5 countries has been weak during the Asian currency crisis from 1997 to 1999, but there was strong transmission between Korea and 5 countries at the end of 2007 including the period of the global financial crisis. Fourth, it showed characteristics that simultaneous correlation appeared to be high due to the country-specific shocks generated for each country with the regime switching using real GDP since 1973. Thus, we confirmed that conclusions were consistent with a number of theoretical and empirical evidence available, and the macro-economic changes were mainly caused by the global shocks for the past 30 years. This study found that the global business cycles were due to large-scale asymmetric shocks in addition to the general changes, and then showed the main international comovements and/or structural changes through country-specific shocks.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.107-133
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• 2011

This paper aims to analyze the causal relationships between agricultural exports and economic growth in the U.S. economy by 50 states. Using the annual data from 1973 to 2007, the theoretical methodologies based on the export-led growth (ELG) model under the static model, the impulse response function (IRF) and forecast error variation decomposition (FEVD) under the vector autoregressive (VAR) model, and the Granger causality test. The results show the causal relationship between agricultural exports and economic growth at the states' level. Especially, the ELG hypothesis is strongly supported in the case of 16 states (HI, ID, KS, MD, MI, MN, NJ, NC, ND, OK, OR, RI, SD, TX, WA, and WI) and is also weakly supported in the case of 31 states. Therefore, the agricultural exports are important factor of developing in the U.S. economy, and furthermore some states (located in coastal area and breadbasket) indicate the strong evidence for agricultural exports-led growth.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.1-17
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• 2020

Purpose - Since China has been South Korea's biggest export destination, uncertainty shocks originating from it would influence South Korea's exports. This paper evaluates the effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to explore the transmission channels. Design/methodology - Incorporating endogeneities and nonlinearities, this study employs a quarterly time-varying parameters vector autoregressive model to investigate the relationships between China's economic policy uncertainty and Korea's exports, where the overparameterization due to time-varying specifications is overcome by a novel stochastic model specification search framework. According to previous theoretical studies, this paper assesses two channels, demand shock channel and exchange rate channel, through which foreign uncertainty affects Korea's exports. This paper identifies the primary drivers of Korea's aggregate exports and analyzes the rationales for the time-variant impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China. Findings - Our empirical results reveal that Korea's aggregate exports are less responsive to China's economic policy uncertainty shocks and significantly move together with global demand. In contrast, its bilateral exports to China are highly responsive in a negative and time-variant way. Moreover, Chinese investment is an important channel through which China's economic policy uncertainty affects Korea's exports to China after 2010. Further, the time-variant effects of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports to China are related to changes in China's foreign trade policies, global economic conditions, and China's degree of economic freedom. Originality/value - Few previous studies touch the effects of external uncertainty shocks on South Korea's exports. This paper attempts to fill this gap and explicitly investigate the impacts of China's economic policy uncertainty on Korea's exports from a time-varying perspective. As Korea is an export-oriented economy, this study provides insights for the Korean government to understand the transmissions of external uncertainty better.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.189-212
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• 2005

This study examines the interactions between KTB spot and futures markets using the daily prices from March 4, 2002 to January 31, 2005. We use Granger causality test, impulse Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition through vector autoregressive analysis (VAR). However, considering the long-term relationships between the level variables of KTB spot and futures, we introduced Vector Error Correction Model. The main results are as follows. According to the results of Granger-causality test and impulse response analysis, we find that the yields of KTB forward have a great influence on the change of KTB spot but not vice versa. In terms of volatility analysis, there is no inter-dependence between KTB forward and spot markets. In the variance decomposition analysis we find that the short-term KTB forward has much more impact on the KTB spot market than the long-term KTB forward does. We think these results are meaningful for bond investors who are in charge of capital asset pricing valuation, risk management and international portfolio management.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.73-89
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• 2021

The handysize bulk carriers are capable of transporting a variety of cargo that cannot be transported by mid-large size ship, and the spot chartering market is active, and it is a market that is independent of mid-large size market, and is more risky due to market conditions and charterage variability. In this study, Granger causality test, the Impulse Response Function(IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition(FEVD) were performed using monthly time series data. As a result of Granger causality test, coal price for coke making, Japan steel plate commodity price, hot rolled steel sheet price, fleet volume and bunker price have causality to Baltic Handysize Index(BHSI) and charterage. After confirming the appropriate lag and stability of the Vector Autoregressive model(VAR), IRF and FEVD were analyzed. As a result of IRF, the three variables of coal price for coke making, hot rolled steel sheet price and bunker price were found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. Among them, the impulse of hot rolled steel sheet price was found to have the most significant effect. As a result of FEVD, the explanatory power that affects BHSI and charterage is the same in the order of hot rolled steel sheet price, coal price for coke making, bunker price, Japan steel plate price, and fleet volume. It was found that it gradually increased, affecting BHSI by 30% and charterage by 26%. In order to differentiate from previous studies and to find out the effect of short term lag, analysis was performed using monthly price data of major cargoes for Handysize bulk carriers, and meaningful results were derived that can predict monthly market conditions. This study can be helpful in predicting the short term market conditions for shipping companies that operate Handysize bulk carriers and concerned parties in the handysize chartering market.