• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.805-814
• /
• 2001

The problem of 'outliers', observations which look suspicious in some way, has long been one of the most concern in the statistical structure to experimenters and data analysts. We propose a model for outliers problem and also analyze it in linear regression model using a Bayesian approach with the variance-inflation model. We will use Geweke's(1996) ideas which is based on the data augmentation method for detecting outliers in linear regression model. The advantage of the proposed method is to find a subset of data which is most suspicious in the given model by the posterior probability The sampling based approach can be used to allow the complicated Bayesian computation. Finally, our proposed methodology is applied to a simulated and a real data.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.6 no.4
• /
• pp.139-145
• /
• 2019

This study examines the dynamic linkages between food price inflation and its volatility in the context of Sri Lanka. The empirical evidence derived from the monthly data for the period from 2003M1 to 2017M12 for Sri Lanka. The relationship between inflation rate and inflation volatility has attracted more attention by theoretical and empirical macroeconomists. Empirical studies on the relationship between food inflation and food inflation variability is scarce in the literature. Food price inflation is defined as log difference of food price series. The volatility of a food price inflation is measured by conditional variance generated by the FIGARCH model. Preliminary analysis showed that food inflation is stationary series. Granger causality test reveals that food inflation seems to exert positive impact on inflation variability. We find no evidence for inflation uncertainty affecting food inflation rates. Hence, the findings of the study supports the Friedman-Ball hypothesis in both cases of consumer food price inflation and wholesale food price inflation. This implies that past information on food inflation can help improve the one-step-ahead prediction of food inflation variability but not vice versa. Our results have some important policy implications for the design of monetary policy, food policy thereby promoting macroeconomic stability.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.9
• /
• pp.219-228
• /
• 2020

The study investigates the impact of inflation rate on economic growth to find the best-fit model for economic growth in Vietnam. The study applied Vector Autoregressive (VAR), cointegration models, and unit root test for the time-series data from 1996 to 2018 to test the inflation impact on the economic growth in the short and long term. The study showed that the two variables are stationary at lag first difference I(1) with 1%, 5% and 10%; trace test indicates two cointegrating equations at the 0.05 level, the INF does not granger cause GDP, the optimal lag I(1) and the variables are closely related as R2 is 72%. It finds that the VAR model's results are the basis to perform economic growth; besides, the inflation rate is positively related to economic growth. The results support the monetary policy. This study identifies issues for Government to consider: have a comprehensive solution among macroeconomic policies, monetary policy, fiscal policy and other policies to control and maintain the inflation and stimulate growth; set a priority goal for sustainable economic growth; not pursue economic growth by maintaining the inflation rate in the long term, but take appropriate measures to stabilize the inflation at the best-fitted VAR forecast model.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.37-46
• /
• 2020

Recurrent event data frequently occur in clinical studies, demography, engineering reliability and so on (Cook and Lawless, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events, Springer, 2007). Sometimes, two or more different but related type of recurrent events may occur simultaneously. In this study, our interest is to estimate the covariate effect on bivariate recurrent event times with zero inflations. Such zero inflation can be related with susceptibility. In the context of bivariate recurrent event data, furthermore, such susceptibilities may be different according to the type of event. We propose a joint model including both two intensity functions and two cure rate functions. Bivariate frailty effects are adopted to model the correlation between recurrent events. Parameter estimates are obtained by maximizing the likelihood derived under a piecewise constant hazard assumption. According to simulation results, the proposed method brings unbiased estimates while the model ignoring cure rate models gives underestimated covariate effects and overestimated variance estimates. We apply the proposed method to a set of bivariate recurrent infection data in a study of child patients with leukemia.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.23 no.4
• /
• pp.409-427
• /
• 2019

This paper sets up a new Keynesian model with external habit to explore the role of each shock over business cycles in Korea. The estimated model via maximum likelihood shows that the productivity shock plays a pivotal role in explaining the output variations before and after the financial crisis since mid-1970s. It also shows that the model with external habit is more successful in explaining the business cycles in Korea after the Asian financial crisis than the model without habit. The monetary policy shock which dominates by accounting for more than 70 percent of the unconditional variance of the inflation rate before the financial crisis is less important in the inflation rate fluctuations after the financial crisis. This partly reflects the regime change of the monetary policy to the inflation targeting rule after the financial crisis.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.301-335
• /
• 2014

In this paper, we consider a small open economy under the New Keynesian model with unemployment of Gal$\acute{i}$ (2011a, b) to discuss the design of the monetary policy. Our findings can be summarized in three parts. First, even with the existence of unemployment, the optimal policy is to minimize variance of domestic price inflation, wage inflation, and the output gap when both domestic price and wage are sticky. Second, stabilizing unemployment rate is important in reducing the welfare loss incurred by both technology and labor supply shocks. Therefore, introducing the unemployment rate as an another argument into the Taylor-rule type interest rate rule will be welfare-enhancing. Lastly, controlling CPI inflation is the best option when the policy is not allowed to respond to unemployment rate. Once the unemployment rate is controlled, however, stabilizing power of CPI inflation-based Taylor rule is diminished.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.23 no.5
• /
• pp.433-444
• /
• 2016

When we observe binary responses in a cluster (such as rat lab-subjects), they are usually correlated to each other. In clustered binomial counts, the independence assumption is violated and we encounter an extra-variation. In the presence of extra-variation, the ordinary statistical analyses of binomial data are inappropriate to apply. In testing the homogeneity of proportions between several treatment groups, the classical Pearson chi-squared test has a severe flaw in the control of Type I error rates. We focus on modifying the chi-squared statistic by incorporating variance inflation factors. We suggest a method to adjust data in terms of dispersion estimate based on a quasi-likelihood model. We explain the testing procedure via an illustrative example as well as compare the performance of a modified chi-squared test with competitive statistics through a Monte Carlo study.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
• /
• v.11 no.4
• /
• pp.441-444
• /
• 1998

The negative direct-maternal genetic correlation $(r_{dm})$ for weaning weight is inflated when data are analyzed with model ignoring sire-by-year interactions (SY). An analytical study investigating the consequences of ignoring SY was undertaken. The inflation of negative correlation could be due to a functional relationship of design matrices for additive direct and maternal genetic effects to that for sire effects within which SY effects were nested. It was proven that the maternal genetic variance was inflated by the amount of reduction for sire variance; the direct genetic variance was inflated by four times the change for maternal genetic variance; and the direct-maternal genetic covariance was deflated by twice the change for maternal genetic variance. The findings were agreed to the results in previous studies.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.41 no.4
• /
• pp.181-188
• /
• 2017

In the existing ship sales market, prices determined based on the prices of similar ship types that recently traded. ince the 2008 financial crisis, ship prices have fluctuated, and ship price criteria have become ever more necessary to the imminent value of the ship. Therefore, this research used the hedonic price model to estimate imminent values of ships. In this study, the influence on ship prices was analyzed by the value of each characteristic and an estimated functional formula was. Out of the four models suggested by the hedonic price model, an optimal model was selected with variance inflation factors and a stepwise selection. For this, the influence of determinants of ship prices was analyzed based on actually traded ships and characteristic data. The selected model s the Log-Line model; as a result of regression analysis, eight variables, including DWT, Age, Market Value, Short-Term Charter, Long-Term Charter, Enbloc, Special Survey Due and Builder were to affect the ship price model. This model is expected to be useful for objective and balanced ship price evaluation.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.37-47
• /
• 2022

This study uses monthly data from January 2009 to December 2020 to examine the effectiveness of foreign currency intervention and its influence on monetary policy in Vietnam using a Hierarchical Bayesian VAR model. The findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention has little influence on the exchange rate level or exports, but it can significantly minimize exchange rate volatility. As a result, we can demonstrate that the claim that Vietnam is a currency manipulator is false. As well, the forecast error variance decomposition results reveal that interest rate differentials mainly determine the exchange rate level instead of foreign exchange intervention. Moreover, the findings suggest that foreign exchange intervention is not effectively sterilized in Vietnam. Inflation is caused by an increase in international reserves, which leads to an expansion of the money supply and a decrease in interest rates. Although the impact of foreign exchange intervention grows in tandem with the growth of international reserves, if the sterilizing capacity does not improve, rising foreign exchange intervention will instead result in inflation. Finally, we use a rolling window approach to examine the time-varying effect of foreign exchange intervention.