• Title/Summary/Keyword: Variable Lead Time

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Development of Real-Time River Flow Forecasting Model with Data Assimilation Technique (자료동화 기법을 연계한 실시간 하천유량 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Byong-Ju;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.199-208
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study is to develop real-time river flow forecast model by linking continuous rainfall-runoff model with ensemble Kalman filter technique. Andong dam basin is selected as study area and the model performance is evaluated for two periods, 2006. 7.1~8.18 and 2007. 8.1~9.30. The model state variables for data assimilation are defined as soil water content, basin storage and channel storage. This model is designed so as to be updated the state variables using measured inflow data at Andong dam. The analysing result from the behavior of the state variables, predicted state variable as simulated discharge is updated 74% toward measured one. Under the condition of assuming that the forecasted rainfall is equal to the measured one, the model accuracy with and without data assimilation is analyzed. The model performance of the former is better than that of the latter as much as 49.6% and 33.1% for 1 h-lead time during the evaluation period, 2006 and 2007. The real-time river flow forecast model using rainfall-runoff model linking with data assimilation process can show better forecasting result than the existing methods using rainfall-runoff model only in view of the results so far achieved.

Reliability-based Structural Design Optimization Considering Probability Model Uncertainties - Part 1: Design Method (확률모델 불확실성을 고려한 구조물의 신뢰도 기반 최적설계 - 제1편: 설계 방법)

  • Ok, Seung-Yong;Park, Wonsuk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.148-157
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    • 2012
  • Reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problem is usually formulated as an optimization problem to minimize an objective function subjected to probabilistic constraint functions which may include deterministic design variables as well as random variables. The challenging task is that, because the probability models of the random variables are often assumed based on limited data, there exists a possibility of selecting inappropriate distribution models and/or model parameters for the random variables, which can often lead to disastrous consequences. In order to select the most appropriate distribution model from the limited observation data as well as model parameters, this study takes into account a set of possible candidate models for the random variables. The suitability of each model is then investigated by employing performance and risk functions. In this regard, this study enables structural design optimization and fitness assessment of the distribution models of the random variables at the same time. As the first paper of a two-part series, this paper describes a new design method considering probability model uncertainties. The robust performance of the proposed method is presented in Part 2. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, an example of ten-bar truss structure is considered. The numerical results show that the proposed method can provide the optimal design variables while guaranteeing the most desirable distribution models for the random variables even in case the limited data are only available.

Buckling behavior of smart MEE-FG porous plate with various boundary conditions based on refined theory

  • Ebrahimi, Farzad;Jafari, Ali
    • Advances in materials Research
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.279-298
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    • 2016
  • Present disquisition proposes an analytical solution method for exploring the buckling characteristics of porous magneto-electro-elastic functionally graded (MEE-FG) plates with various boundary conditions for the first time. Magneto electro mechanical properties of FGM plate are supposed to change through the thickness direction of plate. The rule of power-law is modified to consider influence of porosity according to two types of distribution namely even and uneven. Pores possibly occur inside FGMs due the result of technical problems that lead to creation of micro-voids in these materials. The variation of pores along the thickness direction influences the mechanical and physical properties. Four-variable tangential-exponential refined theory is employed to derive the governing equations and boundary conditions of porous FGM plate under magneto-electrical field via Hamilton's principle. An analytical solution procedure is exploited to achieve the non-dimensional buckling load of porous FG plate exposed to magneto-electrical field with various boundary condition. A parametric study is led to assess the efficacy of material graduation exponent, coefficient of porosity, porosity distribution, magnetic potential, electric voltage, boundary conditions, aspect ratio and side-to-thickness ratio on the non-dimensional buckling load of the plate made of magneto electro elastic FG materials with porosities. It is concluded that these parameters play remarkable roles on the dynamic behavior of porous MEE-FG plates. The results for simpler states are confirmed with known data in the literature. Presented numerical results can serve as benchmarks for future analyses of MEE-FG plates with porosity phases.

The Impact of Disclosure Quality on Crash Risk: Focusing on Unfaithful Disclosure Firms (공시품질이 주가급락에 미치는 영향: 불성실공시 지정기업을 대상으로)

  • RYU, Hae-Young
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - Prior studies reported that the opacity of information caused stock price crash. If managers fail to disclose unfavorable information about the firm over a long period of time, the stock price is overvalued compared to its original value. If the accumulated information reaches a critical point and spreads quickly to the market, the stock price plunges. Information management by management's disclosure policy can cause information uncertainty, which will lead to a plunge in stock prices in the future. Thus, this study aims at examining the impact of disclosure quality on crash risk by focusing on the unfaithful disclosure firms. Research design, data, and methodology - This study covers firms listed on KOSPI and KOSDAQ from 2004 to 2013. Firms excluded from the sample are non-December firms, capital-eroding firms, and financial firms. The financial data used in the research was extracted from the KIS-Value and TS2000 database. Unfaithful disclosure firm designation data was collected from the Korea Exchange's electronic disclosure system (kind.krx.co.kr). Stock crash is measured as a dummy variable that equals one if a firm experiences at least one crash week over the fiscal year, and zero otherwise. Results - Empirical results as to the relation between unfaithful disclosure corporation designation and stock price crashes are as follows: There was a significant positive association between unfaithful disclosure corporation designation and stock price crash. This result supports the hypothesis that firms that have previously exhibited unfaithful disclosure behavior are more likely to suffer stock price plunges due to information asymmetry. Second, stock price crashes due to unfaithful disclosures are more likely to occur in Chaebol firms. Conclusions - While previous studies used estimates as a proxy for information opacity, this study used an objective measure such as unfaithful disclosure corporation designation. The designation by Korea Exchange is an objective evidence that the firm attempted to conceal and distort information in the previous year. The results of this study suggest that capital market investors need to investigate firms' disclosure behaviors.

The Partial Transformation of Clothing Construction in Modern Fashion (현대 패션에 나타난 의복구성의 부분 변형)

  • Kim, Young-Ran
    • Journal of the Korea Fashion and Costume Design Association
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.103-122
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    • 2007
  • Fashion have been expressed by a face through various a period, social change, and various culture changing. Human expresses as "Transformation" by applying these needs of changing to the fashion. A origin tribe expressed its own self by using direct body transformation and extreme decorations in the past. However, human express creative and esthetic desire based on shape, material, and transformation method in the present time characteristics of the body. Exceptional transformation breaking a existing fixed idea appeared frequently due to dissolution through transformation which is positive expression method in the fashion from 20th century. As a results, followings are obtained in this study. First, human body transforms by using a tool or intermediation in investigation of aesthetic meaning for human body. The object, Transformation, is stably transformed by disintegration, distortion, exaggeration and simplification reduction, as design's sensitivity. Second, transformation from relation of clothing composition is expressed by extension, reduction, simplification, and dissolution. In transformation from original tribe's sensitivity, past decorative desire lead to transformation of human body. To give variable change from past to present fashion, external formative will is introduced. Then, extreme expression is made by direct transformation of clothing type. It seems to be accomplished that human body's expression method is continuously changed into extension, exaggeration, reduction, and dissolution from transformation method as described before. Transformation of modem fashion is expression method by creative supervision. Extreme transformation substituted body's each part is based on immanent play and representative satisfaction. Through these transformation, it is judged that variety of creative type is achieved.

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Modified parity space averaging approaches for online cross-calibration of redundant sensors in nuclear reactors

  • Kassim, Moath;Heo, Gyunyoung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.589-598
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    • 2018
  • To maintain safety and reliability of reactors, redundant sensors are usually used to measure critical variables and estimate their averaged time-dependency. Nonhealthy sensors can badly influence the estimation result of the process variable. Since online condition monitoring was introduced, the online cross-calibration method has been widely used to detect any anomaly of sensor readings among the redundant group. The cross-calibration method has four main averaging techniques: simple averaging, band averaging, weighted averaging, and parity space averaging (PSA). PSA is used to weigh redundant signals based on their error bounds and their band consistency. Using the consistency weighting factor (C), PSA assigns more weight to consistent signals that have shared bands, based on how many bands they share, and gives inconsistent signals of very low weight. In this article, three approaches are introduced for improving the PSA technique: the first is to add another consistency factor, so called trend consistency (TC), to include a consideration of the preserving of any characteristic edge that reflects the behavior of equipment/component measured by the process parameter; the second approach proposes replacing the error bound/accuracy based weighting factor ($W^a$) with a weighting factor based on the Euclidean distance ($W^d$), and the third approach proposes applying $W^d$, TC, and C, all together. Cold neutron source data sets of four redundant hydrogen pressure transmitters from a research reactor were used to perform the validation and verification. Results showed that the second and third modified approaches lead to reasonable improvement of the PSA technique. All approaches implemented in this study were similar in that they have the capability to (1) identify and isolate a drifted sensor that should undergo calibration, (2) identify a faulty sensor/s due to long and continuous missing data range, and (3) identify a healthy sensor.

Analysis of an M/M/1 Queue with an Attached Continuous-type (s,S)-inventory ((s,S)-정책하의 연속형 내부재고를 갖는 M/M/1 대기행렬모형 분석)

  • Park, Jinsoo;Lee, Hyeon Geun;Kim, Jong Hyeon;Yun, Eun Hyeuk;Baek, Jung Woo
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2018
  • This study focuses on an M/M/1 queue with an attached continuous-type inventory. The customers arrive into the system according to the Poisson process, and are served in their arrival order; i.e., first-come-first-served. The service times are assumed to be independent and identically distributed exponential random variable. At a service completion epoch, the customer consumes a random amount of inventory. The inventory is controlled by the traditional (s, S)-inventory policy with a generally distributed lead time. A customer that arrives during a stock-out period assumed to be lost. For the number of customers and the inventory size, we derive a product-form stationary joint probability distribution and provide some numerical examples. Besides, an operational strategy for the inventory that minimizes the long-term cost will also be discussed.

Measurement of Group Average for the Evaluation of Attention Improvement for a Tangible Game (체감형 게임에서 주의력 측정 변인에 대한 집단 평균 측정)

  • Roh, Chang Hyun;Lee, Wan Bok
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.11
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    • pp.717-723
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    • 2013
  • It has been reported that more than 10 percent of Korean elementary students are classified into ADHD (Attention Deficit / Hyperactivity Disorder). Major treatment of ADHD is medication. However, medication brings various kinds of side effects. Therefore, we need a way to improve attention leve, and lead children to voluntarily participate in it. With this purpose, we tried to develop a 3D tangible game to improve the children's attention level. To measure the level of attention enhancement, firstly we measured both the group average and the standard deviation of the measurement variables from the raw data gathered during the game play time. The measured value can be effectively used to measure the level of attention improvement of the children who might need treatment.

Harmonic Reduction of Electric Propulsion Ship by Multipulse Drive (다중펄스 드라이브에 의한 전기추진선박의 고조파 저감)

  • Kim, Jong-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.425-431
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    • 2011
  • The harmonic distortion level may be significant in electric propulsion systems, as the main loads usually are variable speed propulsion/thruster drives. Distortion of currents and supply voltage waveforms may lead to: Increased power dissipation(losses) in equipment connected to the network, such as generators, motors, transformers, cables, etc., from the harmonic currents, may cause overheating and deterioration of the insulation, and reduced life time of the equipment. In this paper introduced the canceling method of harmonic currents by a multipulse drive with phase shifting transformer. The simulation results indicated a good speed response to the middle speed range of electric propulsion motor. And also, THD(total harmonic distortion) and torque ripple could be reduced in comparing the 12-pulse drive with 6-pulse drive.

Adaptive Weight Control for Improvement of Catastropic Forgetting in LwF (LwF에서 망각현상 개선을 위한 적응적 가중치 제어 방법)

  • Park, Seong-Hyeon;Kang, Seok-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.15-23
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    • 2022
  • Among the learning methods for Continuous Learning environments, "Learning without Forgetting" has fixed regularization strengths, which can lead to poor performance in environments where various data are received. We suggest a way to set weights variable by identifying the features of the data we want to learn. We applied weights adaptively using correlation and complexity. Scenarios with various data are used for evaluation and experiments showed accuracy increases by up to 5% in the new task and up to 11% in the previous task. In addition, it was found that the adaptive weight value obtained by the algorithm proposed in this paper, approached the optimal weight value calculated manually by repeated experiments for each experimental scenario. The correlation coefficient value is 0.739, and overall average task accuracy increased. It can be seen that the method of this paper sets an appropriate lambda value every time a new task is learned, and derives the optimal result value in various scenarios.