• Title/Summary/Keyword: Var Model

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Evolution of China's Economy and Monetary Policy: An Empirical Evaluation Using a TVP-VAR Model

  • Kim, Seewon
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.73-97
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    • 2021
  • China has experienced many structural changes in the process of economic development over the past three decades. Using a time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility and mixture innovations, this study investigates whether such structural changes in, especially tools and operational aims of monetary policy, affect the monetary transmission mechanism. We find that impulse responses of output growth and inflation to monetary shocks have substantially increased and then reversed to decrease around 2005-2006. This time variation is mainly caused by changes in the monetary transmission mechanism, i.e., the manner in which main macroeconomic variables respond to policy shocks, rather than by changes in volatilities of exogenous shocks. The result implies that aggressive monetary policy to facilitate economic growth in the developing economies may be legitimized, unless it causes inflation seriously.

Analysis of the relationship between garlic and onion acreage response

  • Lee, Eulkyeong;Hong, Seungjee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.136-143
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    • 2016
  • Garlic and onion are staple agricultural products to Koreans and also are important with regard to agricultural producers' income. These products' acreage responses are highly correlated with each other. Therefore, it is necessary to test whether there is a cointegration relationship between garlic acreage and onion acreage when one tries to estimate the acreage response's function. Based upon the test result of cointegration, it is confirmed that there is no statistically significant cointegration relationship between garlic acreage and onion acreage. In this case, vector autoregressive model is preferred to vector error correction model. This study investigated the dynamic relationship between garlic and onion acreage responses using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The estimated results of VAR acreage response models show that there is a statistically significant relationship between current and lagged acreage of more than one lag. Therefore, it is recommended that government should consider the long-run period's relationship of each product's acreage when it plans a policy for stabilizing the supply and demand of garlic and onion. For the price variables, garlic price only affects garlic acreage response while onion price affects not only onion acreage response but also garlic acreage response. This implies that the stabilizing policy for onion price could have bigger effects than that for garlic price stabilization.

Comparison of the forecasting models with real estate price index (주택가격지수 모형의 비교연구)

  • Lim, Seong Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.1573-1583
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    • 2016
  • It is necessary to check mutual correlations between related variables because housing prices are influenced by a lot of variables of the economy both internally and externally. In this paper, employing the Granger causality test, we have validated interrelated relationship between the variables. In addition, there is cointegration associations in the results of the cointegration test between the variables. Therefore, an analysis using a vector error correction model including an error correction term has been attempted. As a result of the empirical comparative analysis of the forecasting performance with ARIMA and VAR models, it is confirmed that the forecasting performance by vector error correction model is superior to those of the former two models.

Effect of Citrus aurantium var amara on weight change in mice

  • Sarker, Satyajit Dey;Habibi, Bohlol;Sharifi, Tohid;Asnaashari, Solmaz;Nahar, Lutfun;Delazar, AndAbbas
    • Advances in Traditional Medicine
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.222-227
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    • 2008
  • Citrus aurantium var. amara L., commonly known as 'bitter orange' or 'sour orange', of the family Rutaceae, has traditionally been used in the treatment of various ailments, and it possesses different types of pharmacological properties. As a part of our on-going studies on the plantsfrom the Iranian flora, the extract of C. aurantium var. amara has been studied for its weight lossproperties using the mice model. While the Sep-Pak fraction, 20% methanol (MeOH) in water, of the hydro-methanolic extract of the peels of C. aurantium var. amara fruits, when injectedintraperitoneal (i.p.) at a dose of 10 mg/kg, significantly decreased the level of weight gain of the mice in comparison with control the group (P < 0.01), the Sep-Pak fraction 80% MeOH in water decreased the initial weight of mice by 0.44% in six weeks. The administration of the total extract(10 and 20 mg/kg, i.p.), and the Sep-Pak fractions, 40% and 60% MeOH in water (10 mg/kg, i.p.)did not show any significant change of weight of the test mice. Of the two active fractions, the80% MeOH in water fraction did not show any noticeable adverse effects on mice, and was therefore analysed by reversed-phase preparative high performance liquid chromatography resulting in the isolation and identification of four major components, two coumarins, meranzin hydrate (1) and bergamottin (2), and two flavonoids, xanthomicrol 5,4'-di-methyl ether (tangeritin, 3) and hymenoxin 5,7-di-methyl ether (nobiletin, 4).

Effect of Artemisia messes-schmidiana var viridis on lipid and histopathology for 1-naphthylisothiocyanate-induced intrahepatic cholestasis in rat (1-naphthylisothiocyanate에 기인된 랫드의 간내성 담즙분비 정지에 대한 인진호(Artemisia messes-schmidiana var viridis)의 지질 및 조직병리학적 영향)

  • Kim, Kil-soo;Jeong, Young-gil;Kim, Moo-kang
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.489-496
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    • 1995
  • Artemisia messes-schmidiana var viridis(Compositae) has been used for jaundice, hepatitis, diuretic and liver cirrhosis etc. 1-naphthylisothiocyanate(ANIT) has been used as a model compound to study mechanisms of intrahepatic cholestasis in laboratory animals as rat and mouse. The purposes of present study are to examine pharmacological effects of Artemisia messes-schmidiana var viridis water extract(AMWE) on alterations of triacylglycerol, cholesterol, protein, albumin and A/G ratio levels in serum, of histopathological appearances of liver, and that of hepatic microsomal cytochrome P-450 contents. Increased serum triacylglycerol levels by ANIT were significantly decreased with AMWE. However, AMWE posttreatment aggravated ANIT-induced cholesterol increase. Serum total protein and albumin contents, and A/G ratio were decreased in all ANIT-treated groups, and there were increased compared with control by AMWE posttreatment. Hepatic microsomal cytochrome P-450 contents were decreased in either AMWE and ANIT treatment, which greatly increased with AMWE pretreatment. On the other hand, in histological findings, our results shown that ANIT induced increase of lipid droplets and widening of sinusoidal capillary and these phenomena were disappeared with AMWE treatment. In conclusion, AMWE have choleresis effect. Also, AMWE improved lipid metabolism, protection and regeneration of hepatocytes in ANIT-induced cholestasis.

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Pharmacological effects of Artemisia messes-schmidiana var viridis on 1-naphthylisothiocyanate-induced intrahepatic cholestasis in rat (1-naphthylisothiocyanate에 기인된 랫드의 간내성 담즙분비 정지에 대한 인진호(Artemisia messes-schmidiana var viridis)의 약리학적 효과)

  • Kim, Kil-soo;Lee, Byeong-noh;Park, Joon-hyoung
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.481-488
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    • 1995
  • In oriental folk medicine, Artemisia messes-schmidiana var viridis(Compositae) has been used for jaundice, hepatitis, diuretic and liver cirrhosis etc. 1-naphthylisothiocyanate(ANIT) has been used for more than 20 years as a model compound to study mechanisms of intrahepatic cholestasis in laboratory animals as rat and mouse. Various biochemical and morphological changes including biliary epithelial and parenchymal cell necrosis occur in the liver of animals treated with ANIT. The purposes of present study are to examine pharmacological effects of Artemisia messes-schmidiana var viridis water extract(AMWE) on alterations of secretion volume and total bile acids level in bile juice, and that of serum AST, ALT, ALP, bilirubin, and glucose levels in rat. AMWE stimulated bile secretion and recovered ANIT-induced cholestasis. Bile acid concentrations increased to more than 60% compared with normal by ANIT, which were returned toward normal value with AMWE treatment. Serum AST and ALT activities were increased by ANIT and yet which were significantly decreased with AMWE treatment. In addition, this effect was apparent in AMWE pretreatment group. Serum glucose levels were increased with AMWE and ANIT, while were decreased compared with control in AMWE posttreatment group. Increased serum total bilirubin contents and ALP activities by ANIT were significantly decreased with AMWE posttreatment. In conclusion, AMWE exerted bile acid-independent choleresis effect and then improved to normal conditions ANIT-induced cholestatic syndromes. Also, AMWE have protective and regenerative effect of hepatocytes in rat.

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Using a Dynamic Approach to Analyze the Relationship between Forest Household Income and Income Inequality (동태적 접근을 통한 임가의 소득과 소득불평등 간의 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Eui-Gyeong;Kim, Dae-Hyun;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.109 no.1
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2020
  • Although the relationship between income and income inequality has previously been discussed, the present study applies a dynamic approach to analyze the specific relationship between forest household income and income inequality. For this analysis, a unit root test and a cointegration test were conducted to characterize the nature of income time-series data. After converting unstable time-series data into stable time-series data, a VAR model was estimated. Based on this model, an impulse-response was generated and variance-decomposition analysis was performed. These analyses showed that the effect of forest household income was relatively larger than that of the Gini coefficient, and that the impact of forest household income not only caused income to increase but also caused the Gini coefficient to decrease. In addition, the impact of the Gini coefficient had an impact on reducing forest household income and further increasing income inequality. We conclude that, with the aim of alleviating the inequality of forest household income, an income growth policy would be more effective than an income distribution policy.

Growth Characteristic Models of Collected Artemisia Resources (수집 쑥속 자원의 생육특성 모형)

  • You Ju-Han;Cho Heung-Won;Lee Cheol-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.367-373
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    • 2005
  • The purposes of this dissertation were to examine relativity between growth characteristics factors and develop the model of growth characteristics. In the result of statistical summaries of the factors in growth characteristic, the highest level of correlation was in plant height, plant width, petiole and chlorophyll in the case of Artemisia iwayomogi; leaf length, in the case of A. stolonifera;, leaf width, of A. princeps var. orientalis;, diameter, of A. feddei;, leaf thickness, of A. iwayomogi, A. princeps var. orientalis, A. montana, A. stolonifera, A. sylnatica; leaf length and leaf width of the other species. In the case of correlation analysis, leaf width and diameter were most correlative in A. capillaris;, plant height and plant width, in A. montana; plant height and leaf width, in A. stolonifera; leaf length and leaf width, in other species. The results of model analysis of growth characteristics were as follows. A. capillaris proved to be about $79.4\%$ effective ; A. princeps var. orientalis, about $91.7\%$ ; A. montana, about $70.3\%$ ; A. iwayomogi, about $49.0\%$ ; A. stolonifera, about $72.5\%$; A. sylnatica, about $75.0\%$;, A. feddei about $60.4\%$ ; A. rubripes about $54.0\%$.

Exports of SMEs against Risk? Theory and Evidence from Foreign Exchange Risk Insurance Schemes in Korea

  • Lee, Seo-Young
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.87-101
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - This paper examines the effectiveness of the foreign exchange risk insurance system in the promotion of SME exports in Korea. The purpose of this study is to analyze the short-term and long-term responses of SME exports to foreign exchange risk insurance support policies. Based on these empirical studies, we would like to present some operational improvements to the operation of the foreign exchange risk insurance system. Design/methodology - In order to analyze the effect of exchange risk insurance on the exports of SMEs, a VAR model consisting of foreign exchange risk insurance underwriting values, export relative price, and domestic demand pressure, including export volume, was established. The study began with tests of the stationarity of time series data. The unit root tests showed that all concerned variables were non-stationary. Accordingly, the results of the cointegration test showed that the tested variables are not cointegrated. Finally, an impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis were conducted to analyze the impulse of foreign exchange risk insurance on exports of SMEs. Findings - As a result of estimating the VAR (1) model, foreign exchange risk insurance was found to be significant at a 1% significance level for SME' export promotion. In the impulse response analysis, SMEs' export response to the impulse of foreign exchange risk insurance showed that exports gradually increased until the third quarter, and then slowed down. However, the impulse did not disappear, and appeared continuously. Originality/value - This study analyzed the effect of foreign exchange insurance on exports of SMEs by applying the VAR model. In particular, this study is the first to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of foreign exchange risk insurance on exports of SMEs. The empirical evidence in the current study have a policy implication for the policy authority to support and promote the foreign exchange risk insurance in the effect of exchange rate volatility on Korea' export SMEs.

An Empirical Study on the Effects of Regulation in Online Gaming Industry via Vector Autoregression Model (벡터자기회귀(VAR) 모형을 활용한 온라인 게임 규제 영향에 대한 실증적 연구: 웹보드 게임을 중심으로)

  • Moonkyoung Jang;Seongmin Jeon;Byungjoon Yoo
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.123-145
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    • 2017
  • This study empirically examines the effects of regulation on online gaming. Going beyond ad hoc heuristic approaches on individual behavior, we investigate the effects of regulation on dynamic changes of games or service providers. In particular, we propose three theoretical perspectives: social influence to investigate the regulation effect, the role of prior experience to determine the difference in the regulation effect size through users' prior experience, and network externalities to discover the difference in the regulation effect size according to the number of users on an online gaming platform. We use the vector autoregression methodology to model patterns of the co-movement of online games and to forecast game usage. We find that online gamers are heterogeneous. Therefore, policy makers should make suitable regulations for each heterogeneous group to effectively avoid generating gaming addicts without interrupting the economic growth of the online gaming industry.