• Title/Summary/Keyword: Value of Forecast

Search Result 355, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

A Model to Estimate Software Development Effort Based on COSMIC-FFP Using System Complexity (시스템 복잡도를 적용한 COSMIC-FFP 기반 소프트웨어 개발노력 추정 모델)

  • Park, Sang-Ki;Park, Man-Gon
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
    • /
    • v.13 no.11
    • /
    • pp.1575-1585
    • /
    • 2010
  • It is very important to forecast a back resource of a software development effort at the early stage of development life cycle for successful project processing, and it is carried out through software size estimation. The recent trend of software size estimation method is focused on the user's value such as FPA. We measure the actual development effort through case study and calculate CFP directly according to the cosmic-ffp manual V.3.0. in this paper. We also propose the software development effort estimation model by using the produced data. COSMIC-FFP does not use weights of necessary function elements, and so it has disadvantage in estimating sizes. This paper proposes the estimation model to estimate the precision software size by using system complexity as weight.

A Ship-Valuation Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션방법을 이용한 선박가치 평가)

  • Choi, Jung-Suk;Lee, Ki-Hwan;Nam, Jong-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
    • /
    • v.31 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1-14
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study utilizes Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the time charter rate of vessels, the three-month Libor interest rate, and the ship demolition price, to mitigate future uncertainties involving these factors. The simulation was performed 10,000 times to obtain an exact result. For the empirical analysis - based on considerations in ordering ships in 2010-a comparison between the Monte Carlo simulation-based stochastic discounted cash flow (DCF) method and traditional DCF methods was made. The analysis revealed that the net present value obtained through Monte Carlo simulation was lower than that obtained via regular DCF methods, alerting the owners to risks and preventing them from placing injudicious orders for ships. This research has implications in reducing the uncertainties that future shipping markets face, through the use of a stochastic DCF approach with relevant variables and probability methods.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.18 no.3
    • /
    • pp.79-96
    • /
    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

Variation and Correlation of Shearing Force with Feed Nutritional Characteristics of Wheat Straw

  • Cui, X.M.;Yang, Z.B.;Yang, W.R.;Jiang, S.Z.;Zhang, G.G.;Liu, L.;Wu, B.R.;Wang, Z.F.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
    • /
    • v.26 no.10
    • /
    • pp.1466-1473
    • /
    • 2013
  • This experiment was conducted to study the variation laws and correlations of shearing force and feed characteristics including morphological characteristic, chemical composition and in situ degradability of wheat straw. Feasibility of evaluating the nutritional value of wheat straws with shearing force values was analyzed in this study. Six hundred wheat straw plants (Jimai 22) were randomly selected and placed in a cool and ventilated place. Samples were collected in the 1st, 15th, 30th, 45th, 60th d after harvest to measure shearing force, morphological characteristic, nutritional composition. Rumen degradation of dry matter (DM), neutral detergent fiber (NDF) and acid detergent fiber (ADF) of wheat straws were determined by the nylon bags method. The results demonstrated that linear and quadratic effects of storage time on all the tested morphological characteristics were significantly correlative (p<0.01). As storage time goes on, all the tested nutrients and their rumen degradations of wheat straw was linearly (p<0.01) and quadratic (p<0.01) correlative except ADF content and rumen degradation of ADF. Significant correlations were determined in linear effect of shearing force on morphological characteristics (p<0.01), and linear density and diameter were a more sensitive predictor than stem thickness for shearing force. There were strong correlations between storage time and all the measured physical characteristics (shearing force, morphological characteristics and shearing force standardized by morphological characteristics) (p<0.01). Nutrition compositions were linearly correlative with shearing force and standardized shearing force (p<0.01). The linear correlation between rumen degradation of DM and NDF and shearing force and standardized shearing force were evident (p<0.01). In conclusion, shearing force, nutrition compositions and their rumen degradation of wheat straw were still dynamic with storage time after harvest. Correlation could be found between shearing force and nutritional characteristics of wheat straw. Nutrient content, morphological index and rumen degradation of DM and NDF could be predicted by changes in shearing force. Shearing force should be applied according to a standardized storage time when it is used to forecast the feed value of wheat straws.

Prediction of Temperature and Heat Wave Occurrence for Summer Season Using Machine Learning (기계학습을 활용한 하절기 기온 및 폭염발생여부 예측)

  • Kim, Young In;Kim, DongHyun;Lee, Seung Oh
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
    • /
    • v.13 no.2
    • /
    • pp.27-38
    • /
    • 2020
  • Climate variations have become worse and diversified recently, which caused catastrophic disasters for our communities and ecosystem including economic property damages in Korea. Heat wave of summer season is one of causes for such damages of which outbreak tends to increase recently. Related short-term forecasting information has been provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration based on results from numerical forecasting model. As the study area, the ◯◯ province was selected because of the highest mortality rate in Korea for the past 15 years (1998~2012). When comparing the forecasted temperatures with field measurements, it showed RMSE of 1.57℃ and RMSE of 1.96℃ was calculated when only comparing the data corresponding to the observed value of 33℃ or higher. The forecasting process would take at least about 3~4 hours to provide the 4 hours advanced forecasting information. Therefore, this study proposes a methodology for temperature prediction using LSTM considering the short prediction time and the adequate accuracy. As a result of 4 hour temperature prediction using this approach, RMSE of 1.71℃ was occurred. When comparing only the observed value of 33℃ or higher, RMSE of 1.39℃ was obtained. Even the numerical prediction model of the whole range of errors is relatively smaller, but the accuracy of prediction of the machine learning model is higher for above 33℃. In addition, it took an average of 9 minutes and 26 seconds to provide temperature information using this approach. It would be necessary to study for wider spatial range or different province with proper data set in near future.

A Study on the Statistical Continuity of Electrical Construction Cost Index Applied Chain Method (전기공사비지수의 산정방식 변경에 따른 통계연속성 실증분석 연구)

  • Park, Houng-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.16 no.2
    • /
    • pp.46-53
    • /
    • 2015
  • Electrical construction cost index is composed of the cost of albor and material. The producer price index is used to the cost of material. The Bank of Korea restructured the formation method and the basic period of the producer price index in 2013. Because fixed-weighted method can't faithfully reflect industrial structure changes. The weighted value and price index of fixed-weighted method is fixed on the basicp eriod. Electrical construction cost index is changed from fixed-weighted method to chain-weighted method in september 2014, because of these on the need. But the change of organization in formation method changes the weighted value. So there is the need of analysis about the statistical continuity of electrical construction cost index. This study is focused on the time series analysis between fixed-weighted and chain-weighted electrical construction cost index. We uses unit root test, cointegration test, regression analysis of long and short term equation, fitness for the estimation of static forecast as time series analysis. We verify that chain-weighted electrical construction cost index can be replaced to fixed-weighted construction cost index accounting analyses result. So users of it recognize that chain-weighted electrical construction cost index has statistical continuity.

Prediction of Wind Damage Risk based on Estimation of Probability Distribution of Daily Maximum Wind Speed (일 최대풍속의 추정확률분포에 의한 농작물 강풍 피해 위험도 판정 방법)

  • Kim, Soo-ock
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.19 no.3
    • /
    • pp.130-139
    • /
    • 2017
  • The crop damage caused by strong wind was predicted using the wind speed data available from Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). Wind speed data measured at 19 automatic weather stations in 2012 were compared with wind data available from the KMA's digital forecast. Linear regression equations were derived using the maximum value of wind speed measurements for the three-hour period prior to a given hour and the digital forecasts at the three-hour interval. Estimates of daily maximum wind speed were obtained from the regression equation finding the greatest value among the maximum wind speed at the three-hour interval. The estimation error for the daily maximum wind speed was expressed using normal distribution and Weibull distribution probability density function. The daily maximum wind speed was compared with the critical wind speed that could cause crop damage to determine the level of stages for wind damage, e.g., "watch" or "warning." Spatial interpolation of the regression coefficient for the maximum wind speed, the standard deviation of the estimation error at the automated weather stations, the parameters of Weibull distribution was performed. These interpolated values at the four synoptic weather stations including Suncheon, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu were used to estimate the daily maximum wind speed in 2012. The wind damage risk was determined using the critical wind speed of 10m/s under the assumption that the fruit of a pear variety Mansamgil would begin to drop at 10 m/s. The results indicated that the Weibull distribution was more effective than the normal distribution for the estimation error probability distribution for assessing wind damage risk.

A Non-annotated Recurrent Neural Network Ensemble-based Model for Near-real Time Detection of Erroneous Sea Level Anomaly in Coastal Tide Gauge Observation (비주석 재귀신경망 앙상블 모델을 기반으로 한 조위관측소 해수위의 준실시간 이상값 탐지)

  • LEE, EUN-JOO;KIM, YOUNG-TAEG;KIM, SONG-HAK;JU, HO-JEONG;PARK, JAE-HUN
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.307-326
    • /
    • 2021
  • Real-time sea level observations from tide gauges include missing and erroneous values. Classification as abnormal values can be done for the latter by the quality control procedure. Although the 3𝜎 (three standard deviations) rule has been applied in general to eliminate them, it is difficult to apply it to the sea-level data where extreme values can exist due to weather events, etc., or where erroneous values can exist even within the 3𝜎 range. An artificial intelligence model set designed in this study consists of non-annotated recurrent neural networks and ensemble techniques that do not require pre-labeling of the abnormal values. The developed model can identify an erroneous value less than 20 minutes of tide gauge recording an abnormal sea level. The validated model well separates normal and abnormal values during normal times and weather events. It was also confirmed that abnormal values can be detected even in the period of years when the sea level data have not been used for training. The artificial neural network algorithm utilized in this study is not limited to the coastal sea level, and hence it can be extended to the detection model of erroneous values in various oceanic and atmospheric data.

Building a Traffic Accident Frequency Prediction Model at Unsignalized Intersections in Urban Areas by Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (적응 뉴로-퍼지를 이용한 도시부 비신호교차로 교통사고예측모형 구축)

  • Kim, Kyung Whan;Kang, Jung Hyun;Kang, Jong Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.32 no.2D
    • /
    • pp.137-145
    • /
    • 2012
  • According to the National Police Agency, the total number of traffic accidents which occurred in 2010 was 226,878. Intersection accidents accounts for 44.8%, the largest portion of the entire traffic accidents. An research on the signalized intersection is constantly made, while an research on the unsignalized intersection is yet insufficient. This study selected traffic volume, road width, and sight distance as the input variables which affect unsignalized intersection accidents, and number of accidents as the output variable to build a model using ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System). The forecast performance of this model is evaluated by comparing the actual measurement value with the forecasted value. The compatibility is evaluated by R2, the coefficient of determination, along with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE), the indicators which represent the degree of error and distribution. The result shows that the $R^2$ is 0.9817, while MAE and MSE are 0.4773 and 0.3037 respectively, which means that the explanatory power of the model is quite decent. This study is expected to provide the basic data for establishment of safety measure for unsignalized intersection and the improvement of traffic accidents.

A Review about the Need for Modelling Toll Road with Different Value of Travel Time (유료도로의 교통수요분석에 있어서 통행시간가치 차등화 필요성 검토)

  • Kim, Jae-Yeong;Son, Ui-Yeong;Jeong, Chang-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.31-40
    • /
    • 2009
  • Some road charges toll to finance the cost or to manage traffic congestion. With a growth of PPI projects, toll roads would be increase continuously. Tolls have a considerable influence on user's route choice, and sometimes can affect to the departure time and even to mode choice. For modelling toll roads, user's WTP or VOT has an important role and it is general that VOT is equivalent to the wages of workers. The current way of modelling technique yields various toll price elasticity from low to high. When there exist few alternative routes, unrealistic result that all traffic assigned to some shortest path may occur. The toll price elasticity can be influenced by alternative route and congestion level, but some result shows nearly unrealistic patterns. The model to forecast more realistic toll road demand is very essential for estimating toll revenue, choice of optimal toll level & collecting location and establishing toll charge strategy. This paper reviewed some literatures about toll road modelling and tested case study about the assignment technique with different VOT. The case study shows that using different VOT yields more realistic result than the use of single VOT.