• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.189-212
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• 2005

This study examines the interactions between KTB spot and futures markets using the daily prices from March 4, 2002 to January 31, 2005. We use Granger causality test, impulse Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition through vector autoregressive analysis (VAR). However, considering the long-term relationships between the level variables of KTB spot and futures, we introduced Vector Error Correction Model. The main results are as follows. According to the results of Granger-causality test and impulse response analysis, we find that the yields of KTB forward have a great influence on the change of KTB spot but not vice versa. In terms of volatility analysis, there is no inter-dependence between KTB forward and spot markets. In the variance decomposition analysis we find that the short-term KTB forward has much more impact on the KTB spot market than the long-term KTB forward does. We think these results are meaningful for bond investors who are in charge of capital asset pricing valuation, risk management and international portfolio management.