• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.351-361
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• 2024

Satellite imagery contains various elements such as clouds, cloud shadows, and terrain shadows. Accurately identifying and eliminating these factors that complicate satellite image analysis is essential for maintaining the reliability of remote sensing imagery. For this reason, satellites such as Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, and Compact Advanced Satellite 500-1 (CAS500-1) provide Usable Data Masks(UDMs)with images as part of their Analysis Ready Data (ARD) product. Precise detection of clouds and their shadows is crucial for the accurate construction of these UDMs. Existing cloud and their shadow detection methods are categorized into threshold-based methods and Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based methods. Recently, AI-based methods, particularly deep learning networks, have been preferred due to their advantage in handling large datasets. This study aims to analyze the applicability of constructing UDMs for high-resolution satellite images through deep learning-based cloud and their shadow detection using open-source datasets. To validate the performance of the deep learning network, we compared the detection results generated by the network with pre-existing UDMs from Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, and CAS500-1 satellite images. The results demonstrated that high accuracy in the detection outcomes produced by the deep learning network. Additionally, we applied the network to detect cloud and their shadow in KOMPSAT-3/3A images, which do not provide UDMs. The experiment confirmed that the deep learning network effectively detected cloud and their shadow in high-resolution satellite images. Through this, we could demonstrate the applicability that UDM data for high-resolution satellite imagery can be constructed using the deep learning network.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.47-67
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• 2017

Steel plate faults is one of important factors to affect the quality and price of the steel plates. So far many steelmakers generally have used visual inspection method that could be based on an inspector's intuition or experience. Specifically, the inspector checks the steel plate faults by looking the surface of the steel plates. However, the accuracy of this method is critically low that it can cause errors above 30% in judgment. Therefore, accurate steel plate faults diagnosis system has been continuously required in the industry. In order to meet the needs, this study proposed a new steel plate faults diagnosis system using Simultaneous MTS (S-MTS), which is an advanced Mahalanobis Taguchi System (MTS) algorithm, to classify various surface defects of the steel plates. MTS has generally been used to solve binary classification problems in various fields, but MTS was not used for multiclass classification due to its low accuracy. The reason is that only one mahalanobis space is established in the MTS. In contrast, S-MTS is suitable for multi-class classification. That is, S-MTS establishes individual mahalanobis space for each class. 'Simultaneous' implies comparing mahalanobis distances at the same time. The proposed steel plate faults diagnosis system was developed in four main stages. In the first stage, after various reference groups and related variables are defined, data of the steel plate faults is collected and used to establish the individual mahalanobis space per the reference groups and construct the full measurement scale. In the second stage, the mahalanobis distances of test groups is calculated based on the established mahalanobis spaces of the reference groups. Then, appropriateness of the spaces is verified by examining the separability of the mahalanobis diatances. In the third stage, orthogonal arrays and Signal-to-Noise (SN) ratio of dynamic type are applied for variable optimization. Also, Overall SN ratio gain is derived from the SN ratio and SN ratio gain. If the derived overall SN ratio gain is negative, it means that the variable should be removed. However, the variable with the positive gain may be considered as worth keeping. Finally, in the fourth stage, the measurement scale that is composed of selected useful variables is reconstructed. Next, an experimental test should be implemented to verify the ability of multi-class classification and thus the accuracy of the classification is acquired. If the accuracy is acceptable, this diagnosis system can be used for future applications. Also, this study compared the accuracy of the proposed steel plate faults diagnosis system with that of other popular classification algorithms including Decision Tree, Multi Perception Neural Network (MLPNN), Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Tree Bagger Random Forest, Grid Search (GS), Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The steel plates faults dataset used in the study is taken from the University of California at Irvine (UCI) machine learning repository. As a result, the proposed steel plate faults diagnosis system based on S-MTS shows 90.79% of classification accuracy. The accuracy of the proposed diagnosis system is 6-27% higher than MLPNN, LR, GS, GA and PSO. Based on the fact that the accuracy of commercial systems is only about 75-80%, it means that the proposed system has enough classification performance to be applied in the industry. In addition, the proposed system can reduce the number of measurement sensors that are installed in the fields because of variable optimization process. These results show that the proposed system not only can have a good ability on the steel plate faults diagnosis but also reduce operation and maintenance cost. For our future work, it will be applied in the fields to validate actual effectiveness of the proposed system and plan to improve the accuracy based on the results.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.17-35
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• 2015

Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.31-59
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• 2007

We frequently use search engines to find relevant information in the Web but still end up with too much information. In order to solve this problem of information overload, ranking algorithms have been applied to various domains. As more information will be available in the future, effectively and efficiently ranking search results will become more critical. In this paper, we propose a ranking algorithm for the Semantic Web resources, specifically RDF resources. Traditionally, the importance of a particular Web page is estimated based on the number of key words found in the page, which is subject to manipulation. In contrast, link analysis methods such as Google's PageRank capitalize on the information which is inherent in the link structure of the Web graph. PageRank considers a certain page highly important if it is referred to by many other pages. The degree of the importance also increases if the importance of the referring pages is high. Kleinberg's algorithm is another link-structure based ranking algorithm for Web pages. Unlike PageRank, Kleinberg's algorithm utilizes two kinds of scores: the authority score and the hub score. If a page has a high authority score, it is an authority on a given topic and many pages refer to it. A page with a high hub score links to many authoritative pages. As mentioned above, the link-structure based ranking method has been playing an essential role in World Wide Web(WWW), and nowadays, many people recognize the effectiveness and efficiency of it. On the other hand, as Resource Description Framework(RDF) data model forms the foundation of the Semantic Web, any information in the Semantic Web can be expressed with RDF graph, making the ranking algorithm for RDF knowledge bases greatly important. The RDF graph consists of nodes and directional links similar to the Web graph. As a result, the link-structure based ranking method seems to be highly applicable to ranking the Semantic Web resources. However, the information space of the Semantic Web is more complex than that of WWW. For instance, WWW can be considered as one huge class, i.e., a collection of Web pages, which has only a recursive property, i.e., a 'refers to' property corresponding to the hyperlinks. However, the Semantic Web encompasses various kinds of classes and properties, and consequently, ranking methods used in WWW should be modified to reflect the complexity of the information space in the Semantic Web. Previous research addressed the ranking problem of query results retrieved from RDF knowledge bases. Mukherjea and Bamba modified Kleinberg's algorithm in order to apply their algorithm to rank the Semantic Web resources. They defined the objectivity score and the subjectivity score of a resource, which correspond to the authority score and the hub score of Kleinberg's, respectively. They concentrated on the diversity of properties and introduced property weights to control the influence of a resource on another resource depending on the characteristic of the property linking the two resources. A node with a high objectivity score becomes the object of many RDF triples, and a node with a high subjectivity score becomes the subject of many RDF triples. They developed several kinds of Semantic Web systems in order to validate their technique and showed some experimental results verifying the applicability of their method to the Semantic Web. Despite their efforts, however, there remained some limitations which they reported in their paper. First, their algorithm is useful only when a Semantic Web system represents most of the knowledge pertaining to a certain domain. In other words, the ratio of links to nodes should be high, or overall resources should be described in detail, to a certain degree for their algorithm to properly work. Second, a Tightly-Knit Community(TKC) effect, the phenomenon that pages which are less important but yet densely connected have higher scores than the ones that are more important but sparsely connected, remains as problematic. Third, a resource may have a high score, not because it is actually important, but simply because it is very common and as a consequence it has many links pointing to it. In this paper, we examine such ranking problems from a novel perspective and propose a new algorithm which can solve the problems under the previous studies. Our proposed method is based on a class-oriented approach. In contrast to the predicate-oriented approach entertained by the previous research, a user, under our approach, determines the weights of a property by comparing its relative significance to the other properties when evaluating the importance of resources in a specific class. This approach stems from the idea that most queries are supposed to find resources belonging to the same class in the Semantic Web, which consists of many heterogeneous classes in RDF Schema. This approach closely reflects the way that people, in the real world, evaluate something, and will turn out to be superior to the predicate-oriented approach for the Semantic Web. Our proposed algorithm can resolve the TKC(Tightly Knit Community) effect, and further can shed lights on other limitations posed by the previous research. In addition, we propose two ways to incorporate data-type properties which have not been employed even in the case when they have some significance on the resource importance. We designed an experiment to show the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm and the validity of ranking results, which was not tried ever in previous research. We also conducted a comprehensive mathematical analysis, which was overlooked in previous research. The mathematical analysis enabled us to simplify the calculation procedure. Finally, we summarize our experimental results and discuss further research issues.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.55-80
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• 2012

I. Introduction Developing the relationships between companies is very important issue to ensure a competitive advantage in today's business environment (Bleeke & Ernst 1991; Mohr & Spekman 1994; Powell 1990). Partnerships between companies are based on having same goals, pursuing mutual understanding, and having a professional level of interdependence. By having such a partnerships and cooperative efforts between companies, they will achieve efficiency and effectiveness of their business (Mohr and Spekman, 1994). However, it is difficult to expect these ideal results only in the B2B corporate transaction. According to agency theory which is the well-accepted theory in various fields of business strategy, organization, and marketing, the two independent companies have fundamentally different corporate purposes. Also there is a higher chance of developing opportunism and conflict due to natures of human(organization), such as self-interest, bounded rationality, risk aversion, and environment factor as imbalance of information (Eisenhardt 1989). That is, especially partnerships between principal(or buyer) and agent(or supplier) of companies within supply chain, the business contract itself will not provide competitive advantage. But managing partnership between companies is the key to success. Therefore, managing partnership between manufacturer and supplier, and finding causes of conflict are essential to improve B2B performance. In conclusion, based on prior researches and Agency theory, this study will clarify how business hazards cause conflicts on supply chain and then identify how developed conflicts have been managed by two control mechanisms. II. Research model III. Method In order to validate our research model, this study gathered questionnaires from small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs). In Korea, SMEs mean the firms whose employee is under 300 and capital is under 8 billion won(about 7.2 million dollar). We asked the manufacturer's perception about the relationship with the biggest supplier, and our key informants are denied to a person responsible for buying(ex)CEO, executives, managers of purchasing department, and so on). In detail, we contact by telephone to our initial sample(about 1,200 firms) and introduce our research motivation and send our questionnaires by e-mail, mail, and direct survey. Finally we received 361 data and eliminate 32 inappropriate questionnaires. We use 329 manufactures' data on analysis. The purpose of this study is to identify the anticipant role of business hazard (environmental dynamism, asset specificity) and investigate the moderating effect of control mechanism(formal control, social control) on conflict-performance relationship. To find out moderating effect of control methods, we need to compare the regression weight between low versus. high group(about level of exercised control methods). Therefore we choose the structural equation modeling method that is proper to do multi-group analysis. The data analysis is performed by AMOS 17.0 software, and model fits are good statically (CMIN/DF=1.982, p<.000, CFI=.936, IFI=.937, RMSEA=.056). IV. Result V. Discussion Results show that the higher environmental dynamism and asset specificity(on particular supplier) buyer(manufacturer) has, the more B2B conflict exists. And this conflict affect relationship quality and financial outcomes negatively. In addition, social control and formal control could weaken the negative effect of conflict on relationship quality significantly. However, unlikely to assure conflict resolution effect of control mechanisms on relationship quality, financial outcomes are changed by neither social control nor formal control. We could explain this results with the characteristics of our sample, SMEs(Small and Medium sized Enterprises). Financial outcomes of these SMEs(manufacturer or principal) are affected by their customer(usually major company) more easily than their supplier(or agent). And, in recent few years, most of companies have suffered from financial problems because of global economic recession. It means that it is hard to evaluate the contribution of supplier(agent). Therefore we also support the suggestion of Gladstein(1984), Poppo & Zenger(2002) that relational performance variable can capture the focal outcomes of relationship(exchange) better than financial performance variable. This study has some implications that it tests the sources of conflict and investigates the effect of resolution methods of B2B conflict empirically. And, especially, it finds out the significant moderating effect of formal control which past B2B management studies have ignored in Korea.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.1-32
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• 2011

I. Introduction: In Chinese electronics industry, the local wholesalers are still dominant but power is rapidly swifting from wholesalers to retailers because in recent foreign big retailers and local mass merchandisers are growing fast. During such transient period, conflicts among channel members emerge important issues. For example, when wholesalers who have more power exercise influence strategies to maintain status, conflicts among manufacturer, wholesaler, and retailer will be intensified. Korean electronics companies in China need differentiated channel strategies by dealing with wholesalers and retailers simultaneously to sell more Korean products in competition with foreign firms. For example, Korean electronics firms should utilize 'guanxi' or relational quality to form long-term relationships with whloesalers instead of power and conflict issues. The major purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of conflict, dependency, and influence strategies between local Korean-products-selling retailers and wholesalers on performance in Chinese electronics distribution channels. In particular, this paper proposes effective distribution strategies for Korean electronics companies in China by analyzing moderating effects of 'Guanxi'. II. Literature Review and Hypotheses: The specific purposes of this study are as follows. First, causes of conflicts between local Korean-products-selling retailers and wholesalers are examined from the perspectives of goal incongruence and role ambiguity and then effects of these causes are found out on perceived conflicts of local retailers. Second, the effects of dependency of local retailers upon wholesalers are investigated on local retailers' perceived conflicts. Third, the effects of non-coercive influence strategies such as information exchange and recommendation and coercive strategies such as threats and legalistic pleas exercised by wholesalers are explored on perceived conflicts by local retailers. Fourth, the effects of level of conflicts perceived by local retailers are verified on local retailers' financial performance and satisfaction. Fifth, moderating effects of relational qualities, say, 'quanxi' between wholesalers and retailers are analyzed on the impact of wholesalers' influence strategies on retailers' performances. Finally, moderating effects of relational qualities are examined on the relationship between conflicts and performance. To accomplish above-mentioned research objectives, Figure 1 and the following research hypotheses are proposed and verified. III. Measurement and Data Analysis: To verify the proposed research model and hypotheses, data were collected from 97 retailers who are selling Korean electronic products located around Central and Southern regions in China. Covariance analysis and moderated regression analysis were employed to validate hypotheses. IV. Conclusion: The following results were drawn using structural equation modeling and hierarchical moderated regression. First, goal incongruence perceived by local retailers significantly affected conflict but role ambiguity did not. Second, consistent with conflict spiral theory, the level of conflict decreased when retailers' dependency increased toward wholesalers. Third, noncoercive influence strategies such as information exchange and recommendation implemented by wholesalers had significant effects on retailers' performance such as sales and satisfaction without conflict. On the other hand, coercive influence strategies such as threat and legalistic plea had insignificant effects on performance in spite of increasing the level of conflict. Fourth, 'guanxi', namely, relational quality between local retailers and wholesalers showed unique effects on performance. In case of noncoercive influence strategies, 'guanxi' did not play a role of moderator. Rather, relational quality and noncoercive influence strategies can serve as independent variables to enhance performance. On the other hand, when 'guanxi' was well built due to mutual trust and commitment, relational quality as a moderator can positively function to improve performance even though hostile, coercive influence strategies were implemented. Fifth, 'guanxi' significantly moderated the effects of conflict on performance. Even if conflict arises, local retailers who form solid relational quality can increase performance by dealing with dysfunctional conflict synergistically compared with low 'quanxi' retailers. In conclusion, this study verified the importance of relational quality via 'quanxi' between local retailers and wholesalers in Chinese electronic industry because relational quality could cross out the adverse effects of coercive influence strategies and conflict on performance.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.93-112
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• 2015

Depending on the change in consumer's consumption pattern, existing retail shop has evolved in hypermarket or convenience store offering grocery and daily products mostly. Therefore, it is important to maintain the inventory levels and proper product configuration for effectively utilize the limited space in the retail store and increasing sales. Accordingly, this study proposed proper product configuration and inventory level strategy based on RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) model and SOM(self-organizing map) for manage the retail shop effectively. RFM model is analytic model to analyze customer behaviors based on the past customer's buying activities. And it can differentiates important customers from large data by three variables. R represents recency, which refers to the last purchase of commodities. The latest consuming customer has bigger R. F represents frequency, which refers to the number of transactions in a particular period and M represents monetary, which refers to consumption money amount in a particular period. Thus, RFM method has been known to be a very effective model for customer segmentation. In this study, using a normalized value of the RFM variables, SOM cluster analysis was performed. SOM is regarded as one of the most distinguished artificial neural network models in the unsupervised learning tool space. It is a popular tool for clustering and visualization of high dimensional data in such a way that similar items are grouped spatially close to one another. In particular, it has been successfully applied in various technical fields for finding patterns. In our research, the procedure tries to find sales patterns by analyzing product sales records with Recency, Frequency and Monetary values. And to suggest a business strategy, we conduct the decision tree based on SOM results. To validate the proposed procedure in this study, we adopted the M-mart data collected between 2014.01.01~2014.12.31. Each product get the value of R, F, M, and they are clustered by 9 using SOM. And we also performed three tests using the weekday data, weekend data, whole data in order to analyze the sales pattern change. In order to propose the strategy of each cluster, we examine the criteria of product clustering. The clusters through the SOM can be explained by the characteristics of these clusters of decision trees. As a result, we can suggest the inventory management strategy of each 9 clusters through the suggested procedures of the study. The highest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have high level of the inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where it can be increasing customer's path. In contrast, the lowest of all three value(R, F, M) cluster's products need to have low level of inventory as well as to be disposed in a place where visibility is low. The highest R value cluster's products is usually new releases products, and need to be placed on the front of the store. And, manager should decrease inventory levels gradually in the highest F value cluster's products purchased in the past. Because, we assume that cluster has lower R value and the M value than the average value of good. And it can be deduced that product are sold poorly in recent days and total sales also will be lower than the frequency. The procedure presented in this study is expected to contribute to raising the profitability of the retail store. The paper is organized as follows. The second chapter briefly reviews the literature related to this study. The third chapter suggests procedures for research proposals, and the fourth chapter applied suggested procedure using the actual product sales data. Finally, the fifth chapter described the conclusion of the study and further research.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.59-77
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• 2012

This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.167-181
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• 2018

Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.85-109
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• 2018

Recommender system recommends the items expected to be purchased by a customer in the future according to his or her previous purchase behaviors. It has been served as a tool for realizing one-to-one personalization for an e-commerce service company. Traditional recommender systems, especially the recommender systems based on collaborative filtering (CF), which is the most popular recommendation algorithm in both academy and industry, are designed to generate the items list for recommendation by using 'overall rating' - a single criterion. However, it has critical limitations in understanding the customers' preferences in detail. Recently, to mitigate these limitations, some leading e-commerce companies have begun to get feedback from their customers in a form of 'multicritera ratings'. Multicriteria ratings enable the companies to understand their customers' preferences from the multidimensional viewpoints. Moreover, it is easy to handle and analyze the multidimensional ratings because they are quantitative. But, the recommendation using multicritera ratings also has limitation that it may omit detail information on a user's preference because it only considers three-to-five predetermined criteria in most cases. Under this background, this study proposes a novel hybrid recommendation system, which selectively uses the results from 'traditional CF' and 'CF using multicriteria ratings'. Our proposed system is based on the premise that some people have holistic preference scheme, whereas others have composite preference scheme. Thus, our system is designed to use traditional CF using overall rating for the users with holistic preference, and to use CF using multicriteria ratings for the users with composite preference. To validate the usefulness of the proposed system, we applied it to a real-world dataset regarding the recommendation for POI (point-of-interests). Providing personalized POI recommendation is getting more attentions as the popularity of the location-based services such as Yelp and Foursquare increases. The dataset was collected from university students via a Web-based online survey system. Using the survey system, we collected the overall ratings as well as the ratings for each criterion for 48 POIs that are located near K university in Seoul, South Korea. The criteria include 'food or taste', 'price' and 'service or mood'. As a result, we obtain 2,878 valid ratings from 112 users. Among 48 items, 38 items (80%) are used as training dataset, and the remaining 10 items (20%) are used as validation dataset. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed system (i.e. hybrid selective model), we compared its performance to the performances of two comparison models - the traditional CF and the CF with multicriteria ratings. The performances of recommender systems were evaluated by using two metrics - average MAE(mean absolute error) and precision-in-top-N. Precision-in-top-N represents the percentage of truly high overall ratings among those that the model predicted would be the N most relevant items for each user. The experimental system was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The experimental results showed that our proposed system (avg. MAE = 0.584) outperformed traditional CF (avg. MAE = 0.591) as well as multicriteria CF (avg. AVE = 0.608). We also found that multicriteria CF showed worse performance compared to traditional CF in our data set, which is contradictory to the results in the most previous studies. This result supports the premise of our study that people have two different types of preference schemes - holistic and composite. Besides MAE, the proposed system outperformed all the comparison models in precision-in-top-3, precision-in-top-5, and precision-in-top-7. The results from the paired samples t-test presented that our proposed system outperformed traditional CF with 10% statistical significance level, and multicriteria CF with 1% statistical significance level from the perspective of average MAE. The proposed system sheds light on how to understand and utilize user's preference schemes in recommender systems domain.