• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.802-809
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• 2021

To cope with the increasing maintenance costs due to aging, the maintenance cost was evaluated from the perspective of asset management. The maintenance cost can be predicted based on the condition of the bridge, and the life cycle cost is used as an index. In general, the condition of a bridge has a wide distribution characteristic depending on the deterioration, load, and material characteristics. In this paper, to evaluate the effect of the bridge conditions on the life cycle cost, condition prediction models were constructed considering the service life, deterioration rate, and inspection error, which are the main variables of the bridge condition and life cycle cost calculation. In addition, condition prediction models were constructed based on the distribution of the health index to estimate the upper and lower bounds of the life cycle costs that can occur in individual bridges. Life cycle cost analysis showed that the life cycle cost differed significantly according to the condition of the bridge. Accordingly, research will be needed to increase the reliability of predicting the life cycle cost of individual bridges.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.12
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• pp.226-231
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• 2016

Binomial trees are used to price barrier options. Since barrier options are path dependent, option values of each node are calculated from binomial trees using backward induction. We use generalized Catalan numbers to determine the number of cases not reaching a barrier. We will generalize Catalan numbers by imposing upper and lower bounds. Reaching a barrier in binomial trees is determined by the difference between the number of up states and down states. If we count the cases that the differences between the up states and down states remain in a specific range, the probability of not reaching a barrier is obtained at a final node of the tree. With probabilities and option values at the final nodes of the tree, option prices are computable by discounting the expected option value at expiry. Without calculating option values in the middle nodes of binomial trees, option prices are computable only with final option values. We can obtain a probability distribution of exercising an option at expiry. Generalized Catalan numbers are expected to be applicable in many other areas.