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The Prediction of Currency Crises through Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 경제 위기 예측)

  • Lee, Hyoung Yong;Park, Jung Min
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.19-43
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    • 2016
  • This study examines the causes of the Asian exchange rate crisis and compares it to the European Monetary System crisis. In 1997, emerging countries in Asia experienced financial crises. Previously in 1992, currencies in the European Monetary System had undergone the same experience. This was followed by Mexico in 1994. The objective of this paper lies in the generation of useful insights from these crises. This research presents a comparison of South Korea, United Kingdom and Mexico, and then compares three different models for prediction. Previous studies of economic crisis focused largely on the manual construction of causal models using linear techniques. However, the weakness of such models stems from the prevalence of nonlinear factors in reality. This paper uses a structural equation model to analyze the causes, followed by a neural network model to circumvent the linear model's weaknesses. The models are examined in the context of predicting exchange rates In this paper, data were quarterly ones, and Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, Stock Index, Current Account, Foreign Reserves were independent variables for the prediction. However, time periods of each country's data are different. Lisrel is an emerging method and as such requires a fresh approach to financial crisis prediction model design, along with the flexibility to accommodate unexpected change. This paper indicates the neural network model has the greater prediction performance in Korea, Mexico, and United Kingdom. However, in Korea, the multiple regression shows the better performance. In Mexico, the multiple regression is almost indifferent to the Lisrel. Although Lisrel doesn't show the significant performance, the refined model is expected to show the better result. The structural model in this paper should contain the psychological factor and other invisible areas in the future work. The reason of the low hit ratio is that the alternative model in this paper uses only the financial market data. Thus, we cannot consider the other important part. Korea's hit ratio is lower than that of United Kingdom. So, there must be the other construct that affects the financial market. So does Mexico. However, the United Kingdom's financial market is more influenced and explained by the financial factors than Korea and Mexico.

Comparative Analysis of Hunting System in OECD Countries (OECD 국가(國家)들의 수렵제도(狩獵制度) 비교(比較)·분석(分析))

  • Byun, Woo-Hyuk;Yoon, Seong-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.87 no.2
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    • pp.286-299
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    • 1998
  • This study was conducted to do a comparative analysis of hunting system in 16 OECD(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries. Hunting is one of the most advanced types for developing natural resources, esp. wildlife, which is one of major products from forest. There are two types of hunting system ; Revier and/or License System, around most countries which have traditional advanced hunting and higher hunter population. Licence system, which is chosen in Korea, is less efficient ways of hunting for maximizing economical value and wildlife management than Revier system does. Adopting better system for much more efficient economical condition from hunting in Korea in a future is a ultimate goal in this study. The first step for the goal is an analysis of these two system among 16 OECD countries ; United State, Japan, Germany, France, etc. Comparative researches in hunting regulations such as number of hunters, hunter ratio to population, hunting bags, game species, seasons, ammunition and hunting permit are a next step for adopting developed hunting system in Korea. Korea has a smallest hunter ratio to population (1/2,463) among 16 OECD centuries and economical value lead by hunting is estimated still very low. Revier system is a popular one in most OECD countries except United State, Japan, etc, which is useful for wildlife management and maximizing economical value of hunting. And usually rifles are permitted for big game hunting. Hunting examination and/or insurance are compulsory for achieving hunting permit. Depend on game species, yearly hunting bag and season are constructed in most OECD countries.

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Review of Assessment Criteria for Sustainable Outdoor Space Responding to Climate Change (기후위기 대응 외부공간의 지속가능성 평가지표의 검토 및 고찰)

  • Chun, Seung-Hoon;Chae, Soo-Kwon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.393-412
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    • 2021
  • This study examines the assessment systems of LEED v4.1, an eco-friendly building evaluation system in the United States, and SITE v2, an assessment system for sustainable outdoor spaces, and then compares and examines them from the perspective ofrelevant laws and institutional guidelines and standards in Korea. The conclusion is as follows. First, the US eco-friendly certification system basically not only establishes an independent evaluation system according to the field of expertise, but also provides a sustainable city and community through response to the climate crisis and the comfort of the external space environment. It can be evaluated that securing the quality of life of healthy and happy city dwellers is the top priority. Second, Korea's Green Building Certification System (G-LEED) was basically based on the American LEED system, but it was judged that there was a fundamental difference. It was judged that there is a limitation in not being able to achieve an integrated approach through the participation of various expert groups and stakeholders, but also in the accumulation of more scientific and reliable data and information through the application of cutting-edge information and communication equipment. Third, in the case of external space in Korea, a sustainable assessment system has not been established, and not only is it dispersed in various legal and institutional guidelines, but also its effectiveness is judged to be very low. Therefore, it is judged that it is urgent to introduce and secure the applicability of SITES v2, a sustainable outdoor space assessment system in the United States. It was judged that the effectiveness should be secured through the upward adjustment of the minimum Ecological Area Ratio.

A Basic Study on the Maritime Performing Party System and the Difference between the Maritime System and China's system

  • Liu, Xiaoxian;Noh, Chang-Kyun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.299-303
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    • 2012
  • "United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Carriage of Goods Wholly or Partly by Sea" was passed in July 3, 2008. on September 23, 2009 signing ceremony was held in Rotterdam. The system of maritime performing party is a special system in the transport convention, and constitutes an integral part of the Convention. Maritime performing party system is not the first system which brings in the carrier's independent contractor, but it is the most comprehensive and thorough one. It unified the duty of carrier's independent contractor in the maritime segment, and it is also an important progress in the developing process of international maritime legal system. There are some differences between the maritime performing party and China's current related system, i.e, the port maritime performing party and the intermediate performing party are included in the maritime performing party, and they can enjoy the carrier's exception clause and limitation of liability.

Development of Simulation Program of Automotive Engine Cooling System (자동차 엔진냉각계의 해석 프로그램의 개발)

  • 배석정;이정희;최영기
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.15 no.11
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    • pp.943-956
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    • 2003
  • A numerical program has been developed for the simulation of automotive engine cooling system. The program determines the mass flow rate of engine coolant circulating the engine cooling system and radiator cooling air when the engine speed is adopted by appropriate empirical correlation. The program used the method of thermal balance at individual element through the model for radiator component in radiator analysis. This study has developed the program that predicts the coolant mass flow rate, inlet and outlet temperatures of each component in the engine cooling system (engine, transmission, radiator and oil cooler) in its state of thermal equilibrium. This study also combined the individual programs and united into the total performance analysis program of the engine cooling system operating at a constant vehicle speed. An air conditioner system is also included in this engine cooling system so that the condenser of the air conditioner faces the radiator. The effect of air conditioner to the cooling performance, e.g., radiator inlet temperature, of the radiator and engine system was examined. This study could make standards of design of radiator capacity using heat rejection with respect to the mass flow rate of cooling air. This study is intended to predict the performance of each component at design step or to simulate the system when specification of the component is modified, and to analyze the performance of the total vehicle engine cooling system.

Improvement of a Unified Saccharification and Fermentation System for Agaro-bioethanol Production in Yeast

  • Lee, So-Eun;Kim, Yeon-Hee
    • Microbiology and Biotechnology Letters
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.32-37
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    • 2020
  • We improved on a unified saccharification and fermentation (USF) system for the direct production of ethanol from agarose by increasing total agarase activity. The pGMFα-NGH plasmid harboring the NABH558 gene encoding neoagarobiose hydrolase and the AGAG1 and AGAH71 genes encoding β-agarase was constructed and used to transform Saccharomyces cerevisiae 2805. NABH558 gene transcription level was increased and total agarase activity was increased by 25 to 40% by placing the NABH558 gene expression cassette upstream of the other gene expression cassettes. In the 2805/pGMFα-NGH transformant, three secretory agarases were produced that efficiently degraded agarose to galactose, 3,6-anhydro-L-galactose (AHG), neoagarobiose, and neoagarohexaose. During the united cultivation process, a maximum of 2.36 g/l ethanol from 10 g/l agarose was produced over 120 h.

Educational-Resources Recommending System for Web Based Learning

  • Ochi, Youji;Yano, Yoneo;Wakita, Riko
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 2001.01a
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    • pp.310-315
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    • 2001
  • We are focusing on an approach which handle a general Web as a resource in order to support self-directed learning for a student. Then, we are developing a Web based learning environment "Web-Retracer"for utilizing Web as teaching materials by a user′s Annotation. Although the learner can share the Web resource that the others utilized in this environment, Web resources unsuitable for a student′s needs becomes hindrance about her/his self-directed learning. In this paper, we propose a recommending method of the resource united with a student′s needs on the basis of a student′s learning and Web browsing history. This method analyzed the feature peculiar to a resource, and extracts the resource with which the needs of the feature and a student agreed.

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Hydrodynamics of submersible aquaculture cage system using numerical model

  • Kim, Tae-Ho;Fredriksson, David W.;Decew, Judson
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.46-56
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    • 2008
  • A numerical model analysis was performed to analyze the motion and mooring tension response of submersible fish cage systems in irregular waves and currents. Two systems were examined: a submersible cage mooring with a single, high tension mooring and the same system, but with an additional three point mooring. Using a Morison equation type model, simulations of the systems were conducted with the cage at the surface and submerged. Irregular waves(JONSWAP spectrum) with and without a co-linear current with a magnitude of 0.5m/s were simulated into the model as input parameters. Surge, heave and pitch dynamic calculations were made, along with tension responses in the mooring lines. Results were analyzed in both the time and frequency domains and linear transfer functions were calculated.

The Comparisons on the International Arbitration Systems between Korea and China (한.중 국제중재제도의 비교와 시사점)

  • Oh, Won-Suk;Li, Jing-hua
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.46
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    • pp.315-350
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    • 2010
  • The rapid growth of Korea-China trade that was since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992, led China to surpass the United States and Japan to become Korea's largest trading partner in 2009. "The largest trade" also means "the most disputes", so it is essential to study on dispute settlement and enforcement system of the two. Therefore, in order to make the traders correctly understand and use the arbitration as a dispute settlement method in both China and Korea, this article makes a comparative study on arbitration system between the two countries. And finally, it analyzes the enforcement situation of arbitral award in China, then provides the author's personal recommendations as a countermeasure against the poor enforcement system in China.

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A Study on the Framework of Mission Assurance for SE (시스템엔지니어링 강화를 위한 임무보증 Framework 연구)

  • Kim, Kwang Hae;Cho, Chul hoon;Ko, Jeong Hwan;Chung, Eui Seung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Systems Engineering
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.89-95
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    • 2014
  • In recent years, the United States have been several major failures of launch. As a result of these failures, activity of mission assurance valued. Mission assurance is defined as the application of systems engineering process towards the goal of achieving mission success. Therefore, mission assurance perform independent technical assessments throughout the concept and requirements definition, design, development, production, test, deployment, and operations phases. Space system program was emphasized the importance of the system engineering for that required huge cost and long term development. For this reason, independent review and verification of mission assurance is essential. Mission assurance gives us confidence to proceed with launch and best opportunity for mission success. In this study, framework of mission assurance is proposed by foreign case analysis.