• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제51권1호
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• pp.198-206
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• 2019

A new methodology to analyze the nuclear material accountability for pyroprocessing system is developed. The $Pu-to-^{244}Cm$ ratio quantification is one of the methods for Pu accountancy in pyroprocessing. However, an uncertainty in the $Pu-to-^{244}Cm$ ratio due to the non-uniform composition in used fuel assemblies can affect the accountancy of Pu. A random variable, LOPu, is developed to analyze the probability of detection for Pu diversion of hypothetical scenarios at a pyroprocessing facility considering the uncertainty in $Pu-to-^{244}Cm$ ratio estimation. The analysis is carried out by the hypothesis testing and the event tree method. The probability of detection for diversion of 8 kg Pu is found to be less than 95% if a large size granule consisting of small size particles gets sampled for measurements. To increase the probability of detection more than 95%, first, a new Material Balance Area (MBA) structure consisting of more number of Key Measurement Points (KMPs) is designed. This multiple KMP-measurement for the MBA shows the probability of detection for 8 kg Pu diversion is greater than 96%. Increasing the granule sample number from one to ten also shows the probability of detection is greater than 95% in the most ranges for granule and powder sizes.

• Coupled systems mechanics
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.429-444
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• 2023

The comprehension and structural modeling of masonry constructions is fundamental to safeguard the integrity of built cultural assets and intervene through adequate actions, especially in earthquake-prone regions. Despite the availability of several modeling strategies and modern computing power, modeling masonry remains a great challenge because of still demanding computational efforts, constraints in performing destructive or semi-destructive in-situ tests, and material uncertainties. This paper investigates the shear behavior of masonry walls by applying a plane-stress FE continuum model with the Modified Masonry-like Material (MMLM). Epistemic uncertainty affecting input parameters of the MMLM is considered in a probabilistic framework. After appointing a suitable probability density function to input quantities according to prior engineering knowledge, uncertainties are propagated to outputs relying on gPCE-based surrogate models to considerably speed up the forward problem-solving. The sensitivity of the response to input parameters is evaluated through the computation of Sobol' indices pointing out the parameters more worthy to be further investigated, when dealing with the seismic assessment of masonry buildings. Finally, masonry mechanical properties are calibrated in a probabilistic setting with the Bayesian approach to the inverse problem based on the available measurements obtained from the experimental load-displacement curves provided by shear compression in-situ tests.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.32-45
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• 2023

Implementing Severe Accident Management (SAM) strategies is crucial for enhancing a nuclear power plant's resilience and safety against severe accidents conditions represented in the analysis of Station Blackout (SBO) event. Among these critical approaches, the In-Vessel Retention (IVR) through External Reactor Vessel Cooling (IVR-ERVC) strategy plays a key role in preventing vessel failure. This work is designed to evaluate the efficacy of the IVR strategy for a high-power density reactor APR1400. The APR1400's plant is represented and simulated under steady-state and transient conditions for a station blackout (SBO) accident scenario using the computer code, ASYST. The APR1400's thermal-hydraulic response is analyzed to assess its performance as it progresses toward a severe accident scenario during an extended SBO. The effectiveness of emergency operating procedures (EOPs) and severe accident management guidelines (SAMGs) are systematically examined to assess their ability to mitigate the accident. A group of associated key phenomena selected based on Phenomenon Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRT) and uncertain parameters are identified accordingly and then propagated within DAKOTA Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) framework until a statistically representative sample is obtained and hence determine the uncertainty bands of key system parameters. The Systems Engineering methodology is applied to direct the progression of work, ensuring systematic and efficient execution.

• 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국원자력학회 1996년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(2)
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• pp.513-518
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• 1996

This report presents a demonstration of application of realistic evaluation methodology to a posturated cold leg large break LOCA in a Westinghouse three-loop pressurized water reactor with 17$\times$17 fuel. The new method of this analysis can be divided into three distinct step: 1) Best Estimate Code Validation and Uncertainty Quantification 2) Realistic LOCA Calculation 3) Limiting Value LOCA Calculation and Uncertainty Combination RELAP5/MOD3/K ［1］, which was improved from RELAP5/MOD3.1, and CONTEMPT4/MOD5 code were used as a best estimate thermal-hydraulic model for realistic LOCA calculation. The code uncertainties which will be determined in step 1) were quantified already in previous study ［2］, and thus the step 2) and 3) for plant application were presented in this paper. The application uncertainty parameters are divided into two categories, i.e. plant system parameters and fuel statistical parameters. Single parameter sensitivity calculations were performed to select system parameters which would be set at their limiting value in Limiting Value Approach (LVA) calculation. Single run of LVA calculation generated 27 PCT data according to the various combinations of fuel parameters and these data provided input to response surface generation. The probability distribution function was generated from Monte Carlo sampling of a response surface and the upper 95$^{th}$ percentile PCT was determined. Break spectrum analysis was also made to determine the critical break size. The results show that sufficient LOCA margin can be obtained for the demonstration NPP.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제10권4_5호
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• pp.375-391
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• 2012

This paper reports the structural health monitoring benchmark study results for the Canton Tower using Bayesian methods. In this study, output-only modal identification and finite element model updating are considered using a given set of structural acceleration measurements and the corresponding ambient conditions of 24 hours. In the first stage, the Bayesian spectral density approach is used for output-only modal identification with the acceleration time histories as the excitation to the tower is unknown. The modal parameters and the associated uncertainty can be estimated through Bayesian inference. Uncertainty quantification is important for determination of statistically significant change of the modal parameters and for weighting assignment in the subsequent stage of model updating. In the second stage, a Bayesian model updating approach is utilized to update the finite element model of the tower. The uncertain stiffness parameters can be obtained by minimizing an objective function that is a weighted sum of the square of the differences (residuals) between the identified modal parameters and the corresponding values of the model. The weightings distinguish the contribution of different residuals with different uncertain levels. They are obtained using the Bayesian spectral density approach in the first stage. Again, uncertainty of the stiffness parameters can be quantified with Bayesian inference. Finally, this Bayesian framework is applied to the 24-hour field measurements to investigate the variation of the modal and stiffness parameters under changing ambient conditions. Results show that the Bayesian framework successfully achieves the goal of the first task of this benchmark study.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제75권3호
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• pp.311-325
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• 2020

In applying the spectral stochastic finite element methods to the frequency response analysis, the conventional methods are known to give unstable and inaccurate results near the natural frequencies. To address this issue, a new sensitivity based stabilized formulation for stochastic frequency response analysis is proposed in this paper. The main difference over the conventional spectral methods is that the polynomials of random variables are applied to both numerator and denominator in approximating the harmonic response solution. In order to reflect the resonance behavior of the structure, the denominator polynomials is constructed by utilizing the natural frequency sensitivity and the random mode superposition. The numerator is approximated by applying a polynomial chaos expansion, and its coefficients are obtained through the Galerkin or the spectral projection method. Through various numerical studies, it is seen that the proposed method improves accuracy, especially in the vicinities of structural natural frequencies compared to conventional spectral methods.

• 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국원자력학회 1996년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(2)
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• pp.493-498
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• 1996

A PC window-based computer code, CONPAS(CONtainment Performance Analysis System), has been developed to integrate the numerical, graphical and results-operation aspects of Level 2 probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) for nuclear power plants automatically. As a main logic for accident progression analysis, it employs a concept of the small containment phenomenological event tree(CPET) helpful to trace out visually individual accident progressions and of the large supporting event tree(LSET) for its detailed quantification. Compared with other existing computer codes for Level 2 PSA, the CONPAS code provides several advanced features: computational aspects including systematic uncertainty analysis, importance analysis, and sensitivity analysis, reporting aspects including tabling and graphic, and user-friend interface.

• 한국대기환경학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국대기환경학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.121-122
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• 2003

현재, 대기 환경 자료의 정확한 분석을 위하여 정부와 지자체는 여러 종류의 대기 오염 측정망을 설치하여 운영하고 있다. 측정망으로부터 산출된 이러한 자료들의 품질은 대기 환경 학자 및 전문가들은 물론이고 일반 국민들의 일상적인 활동에도 중요한 영향을 미치고 있기 때문에, 측정 결과의 정화한 이해와 사용을 위한 품질 보증이 매우 중요한 실정에 있다. 그러나, 국제적인 수준의 품질 보증이 이루어지기 위해서는 측정 실험실의 인증 요건(ISO 17025) 및 측정 불확도 표기(ISO Guide) 등에 관한 국제적인 규격들의 적용이 매우 엄격하게 요구되고 있는 실정이다. (중략)

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2007년도 정기 학술대회 논문집
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• pp.135-140
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• 2007

In this paper, an Improved Dimension Reduction(IDR) method is proposed for uncertainty quantification that employes Kriging interpolation technic. It has been acknowledged that the DR method is accurate and efficient for assessing statistical moments and reliability due to the sensitivity free feature. However, the DR method has a number of drawbacks such as instability and inaccuracy for problems with increased nonlineality. In this paper, improved DR is implanted by three steps. First, the Kriging interpolation method is used to accurately approximate the responses. Second, 2N+1 and 4N+1 ADOEs are proposed to maintain high accuracy of the method for UQ analysis. Third, numerical integration scheme is used with accurate but free response values at any set of integration points of the surrogated model.

• 항공우주시스템공학회지
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.7-17
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• 2014

Objective of this paper is to introduce a new technology known as prognostics and health management (PHM) which enables a real-time life prediction for safety critical systems under extreme loading conditions. In the PHM, Bayesian framework is employed to account for uncertainties and probabilities arising in the overall process including condition monitoring, fault severity estimation and failure predictions. Three applications - aircraft fuselage crack, gearbox spall and battery capacity degradation are taken to illustrate the approach, in which the life is predicted and validated by end-of-life results. The PHM technology may allow new maintenance strategy that achieves higher degree of safety while reducing the cost in effective manner.