• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.365-379
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• 2021

Hydrological model parameters are essential for model simulation and can vary over time due to topography, climatic conditions, climate change and human activity. Consequently, the use of fixed parameters can lead to inaccurate stream flow simulations. The aim of this study is to investigate an appropriate method of estimating time-varying parameters using stream flow observations, and how the simulation efficiency changes when stream flow data are assimilated into the model. The data assimilation method can be used to automatically estimate the parameters of a hydrological model by adapting to a variety of changing environments. Stream flow observations were assimilated into a two parameter monthly water balance model using a particle filter. The simulation results using the time-varying parameters by the data assimilation method were compared with the simulation results using the fixed parameters by the SCEM method. First, we conducted synthesis experiments based on various scenarios to investigate if the particle filter method can adequately track parameters that change over time. After that, it was applied to actual watersheds and compared with the predictive performance of stream flow when using parameters that change with time and fixed parameters. The conclusions obtained through this study are as follows: (1) The predictive performance of the overall monthly stream flow time series was similar between the particle filter method and the SCEM method. (2) The monthly runoff prediction performance in the period except the rainy season was better in the simulation by the periodically changing parameters using the data assimilation method. (3) Uncertainty in the observational data of stream flow used for assimilation played an important role in the predictive performance of the particle filter.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.7
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• pp.545-556
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• 2022

It is recommended to use long-term hydrometeorological data for more than the service life of the hydraulic structures and water resource planning. For the purpose of expanding rainfall data, stochastic simulation models, such as Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (BLRP) and Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse (NSRP) models, have been widely used. The optimal parameters of the model can be estimated by repeatedly comparing the statistical moments defined through a combination of parameters of the probability distribution in the optimization context. However, parameter estimation using relatively small observed rainfall statistics corresponds to an ill-posed problem, leading to an increase in uncertainty in the parameter estimation process. In addition, as shown in previous studies, extreme values are underestimated because objective functions are typically defined by the first and second statistical moments (i.e., mean and variance). In this regard, this study estimated the parameters of the NSRP model using the objective function with the third moment and compared it with the existing approach based on the first and second moments in terms of estimation of extreme rainfall. It was found that the first and second moments did not show a significant difference depending on whether or not the skewness was considered in the objective function. However, the proposed model showed significantly improved performance in terms of estimation of design rainfalls.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.111-122
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• 2004

The driver's decision making (e.g. route choice) is a typical decision making with an uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate the effect of route guidance information on driver's route choice and learning behavior and analyse the potential of information system in a road network in which traffic flows follow random walk. A Simulation performed focuses on the relationship among the network wide performance, message receiving rates and driver's learning mechanism. We know that at high levels of message receiving rates, the network-wide performance may get worse. However, at low levels of receiving rates, we found that the travel time when guidance information is provided decrease compared to the cases when no pubic information is provided. Also, we found that the learning parameter of the learning mechanism model always changes under nonstationary traffic condition. In addition, learning process of drivers does not converge on any specific value. More investigation is needed to enlarge the scope of the study and to explore more deeply driver's behavior.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.1845-1848
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• 2005

The automatic $CO_2$ welding is a manufacturing process to produce high quality joints for metal and it could provide a capability of full automation to enhance productivity. Despite the widespread use in the various manufacturing industries, the full automation of the robotic $CO_2$ welding has not yet been achieved partly because the mathematical model for the process parameters of a given welding task is not fully understood and quantified. Several mathematical models to control welding quality, productivity, microstructure and weld properties in arc welding processes have been studied. However, it is not an easy task to apply them to the various practical situations because the relationship between the process parameters and the bead geometry is non-linear and also they are usually dependent on the specific experimental results. Practically, it is difficult, but important to know how to establish a mathematical model that can predict the result of the actual welding process and how to select the optimum welding condition under a certain constraint. In this research, an attempt has been made to develop an intelligent algorithm to predict the weld geometry (top-bead width, top-bead height, back-bead width and back-bead height) as a function of key process parameters in the robotic $CO_2$welding. A sensitivity analysis has been conducted and compared the relative impact of three process parameters on bead geometry in order to verify the measurement errors on the values of the uncertainty in estimated parameters.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.87-90
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• 2005

The FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission is a micro satellite mission to deploy a constellation of six micro satellites at low Earth orbits. The final mission orbit is of an altitude of 750-800 lan. It is a collaborative Taiwan-USA science experiment. Each satellite consists of three science payloads in which the GPS occultation experiment (GOX) payload will collect the GPS signals for the studies of meteorology, climate, space weather, and geodesy. The GOX onboard FORMOSAT -3 is designed as a GPS receiver with 4 antennas. The fore and aft limb antennas are installed on the front and back sides, respectively, and as well as the two precise orbit determination (POD) antennas. The precise orbit information is needed for both the occultation inversion and geodetic research. However, the instrument associated errors, such as the antenna phase center offset and even the different cable delay due to the geometric configuration of fore- and aft-positions of the POD antennas produce error on the orbit. Thus, the focus of this study is to investigate the impact of POD antenna parameter on the determination of precise satellite orbit. Furthermore, the effect of the accuracy of the determined satellite orbit on the retrieved atmospheric and ionospheric parameters is also examined. The CHAMP data, the FORMOSAT-3 satellite and orbit parameters, the Bernese 5.0 software, and the occultation data processing system are used in this work. The results show that 8 cm error on the POD antenna phase center can result in ~8 cm bias on the determined orbit and subsequently cause 0.2 K deviation on the retrieved atmospheric temperature at altitudes above 10 lan.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2004.10a
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• pp.150-156
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• 2004

Though the concept of Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) itself is not new, its effectiveness for planning, design, rehabilitation and maintenance/management of civil infrastructures is becoming increasingly recognized. For the decision problems as in the case of the LCC of plant facilities, equipments, bridge decks, pavements, etc., the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is relatively simple, and thus its practical implementation is rather straightforward. However, when it comes to major infrastructures such as bridge, tunnels, underground facilities, etc., the LCCA problem becomes extremely complex because lack of cost data associated with various direct and indirect losses, and the absence of uncertainty data available for the assessment as well. As a result, the LCC studies have been largely limited only to those relatively simple LCCA problems of planning or conceptual design for making decisions. Accordingly, in the recent years, the researchers have pursued extensive studies on the LCC effectiveness mostly related to LCC models and frameworks for civil infrastructures. Moreover, recently the demand on the practical application of LCC effective decisions in design and maintenance is rapidly growing unprecedently in civil engineering practice. Indirction cost is very important on LCC formulation. But that is very difficult and complicate the estimation every LCC. The objective of this paper is to suggest efficient regression model for the estimation of indirect cost approach to the practical application of LCC for the design and rehabilitation of civil. infrastructures considering traffic, traffic network, detour condition, and workzone condition. In this paper, it performed the sensitivity analysis and correlation analysis of parameter for development of regression model of inflection cost.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.5 no.5
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• pp.507-521
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• 1997

The ultimate behavior of a reinforced concrete hyperbolic paraboloid saddle shell under uniformly distributed vertical load is investigated using an inelastic, large displacement finite-element program originally developed at North Carolina State University. Unlike with the author's previous study which shows that the saddle shell possesses a tremendous capacity to redistribute the stresses, introducing tension stiffening in the model the cracks developed are no longer through cracks and formed as primarily bending cracks. Even though with small tension stiffening effect, the behavior of the shell is changed markedly from the one without tension stiffening effect. The load-deflection curves are straight and the slope of the curves is quite steep and remains unchanged with varying the tension stiffening parameters. The failure of the shell took place quite suddenly in a cantilever mode initiated by a formation of yield lines in a direction parallel to the support-to-support diagonal. The higher the tension stiffening parameters the higher is the ultimate load. The present study shows that the ultimate behavior of the shell primarily depends on the concrete tensile characteristics, such as tensile strength (before cracking) and the effective tension stiffening (after cracking). As the concrete characteristics would vary over the life of the shell, a degree of uncertainty is involved in deciding a specified ultimate strength of the saddle shell studied. By the present study, however, the overload factors based on ACI 318-95 are larger than unity for all the cases studied except that the tension stiffening parameter is weak by 3 with and without the large displacement effect, which shows that the Lin-Scordelis saddle shell studied here is at least safe.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.121-124
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the critical strengthening ratio of concrete railroad bridge strengthened with NSM using CFRP plate. The railroad bridge is usually under vibration and impact in service state. Therefore, it is important that the effective strengthening performance must be exhibited under the service loading is acted. To widely apply the NSM method for the concrete railroad bridge in field, it needs that reasonable strengthening parameter such as strengthening ratio has to be investigated and evaluated when the strengthening design is conducted. In this study, to suggest more reasonable strengthening ratio, material and geometrical uncertainty was considered and applied by Monte Carlo Simulation (MSC) technique. Lastly, the critical strengthening ratio of concrete railroad bridge strengthened with NSM using CFRP plate was evaluated by using the limit state function with the target reliability index.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.33-40
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• 2015

In the correlation formulas related to consolidation proposed at present, the analyzed areas are limited to certain overseas or domestic areas and in order to increase the number of data, experimental data of different areas are integrated and therefore in many cases application is difficult. In addition, models have been developed without clear statistic evaluation of the obtained data. Accordingly, this study divided the soft areas of the west coast into Hangang, Kumgang and Yeongsangang in order to maximally reduce uncertainty of the experimental data and performed normality test and regression analysis on the physical and dynamic characteristics. According to the analysis result, the compression index and the modified compression index had strong linearity and in all areas modified compression index and initial void ratio had closest correlation, followed by total unit weight, water contents and liquid limits. As for overconsolidation ratio with depth, the width of overconsolidation ratio was large when the depth was less than 5 to 6 m in all areas and when the depth was over 5 to 6 m, the ratio was constant.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.17 no.7
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• pp.999-1010
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• 2003

Uninterrupted power supply has become indispensable during the maintenance task of active electric power lines as a result of today's highly information-oriented society and increasing demand of electric utilities. This maintenance task has the risk of electric shock and the danger of falling from high place. Therefore it is necessary to realize an autonomous robot system using electro-hydraulic manipulators because hydraulic manipulators have the advantage of electric insulation and power/mass density. Meanwhile an electro-hydraulic manipulator using hydraulic actuators has many nonlinear elements, and its parameter fluctuations are greater than those of an electrically driven manipulator. So it is relatively difficult to realize not only stable contact work but also accurate force control for the autonomous assembly tasks using hydraulic manipulators. In this paper, the robust force control of a 6-link electro-hydraulic manipulator system used in the real maintenance task of active electric lines is examined in detail. A nominal model for the system is obtained from experimental frequency responses of the system, and the deviation of the manipulator system from the nominal model is derived by a multiplicative uncertainty. Robust disturbance observers for force control are designed using this information in an H$\_$$\infty$/ framework, and implemented on the two different setups. Experimental results show that highly robust force tracking by a 6-link electro-hydraulic manipulator could be achieved even if the stiffness of environment and the shape of wall change.