• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제48권2호
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• pp.90-99
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• 2023

Background: Quantitative risk assessments should be accompanied by uncertainty analyses of the risk models employed in the calculations. In this study, we aim to develop a computational code named SUMRAY for use in cancer risk projections from radiation exposure taking into account uncertainties. We also aim to make SUMRAY publicly available as a resource for further improvement of risk projection. Materials and Methods: SUMRAY has two versions of code written in R and Python. The risk models used in SUMRAY for all-solid-cancer mortality and incidence were those published in the Life Span Study of a cohort of the atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The confidence intervals associated with the evaluated risks were derived by propagating the statistical uncertainties in the risk model parameter estimates by the Monte Carlo method. Results and Discussion: SUMRAY was used to calculate the lifetime or time-integrated attributable risks of cancer under an exposure scenario (baseline rates, dose[s], age[s] at exposure, age at the end of follow-up, sex) specified by the user. The results were compared with those calculated using another well-known web-based tool, Radiation Risk Assessment Tool (RadRAT; National Institutes of Health), and showed a reasonable agreement within the estimated confidential interval. Compared with RadRAT, SUMRAY can be used for a wide range of applications, as it allows the risk projection with arbitrarily specified risk models and/or population reference data. Conclusion: The reliabilities of SUMRAY with the present risk-model parameters and their variance-covariance matrices were verified by comparing them with those of the other codes. The SUMRAY code is distributed to the public as an open-source code under the Massachusetts Institute of Technology license.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.239-245
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• 2017

This study aimed to suggest priority for developing emission factor (EF) and to develop the methodology of quantitative assessment of EF in the forestry sector. Based on the stock-difference method, 17 kinds of EFs (27 EFs based on forest types) were required to calculate the carbon emission in the forestry sector. Priority for developing EFs followed the standards, which is a development plan by the government agency, importance of carbon stock for greenhouse gas, and EFs by the species. Currently, the most urgent development of EFs was carbon fraction in biomass and carbon stock in dead wood. Meanwhile, the quantitative assessment of EF consisted of 7 categories (5 categories of compulsory and 2 categories of quality evaluation) and 12 verification factors. Category in compulsory verification consisted of administrative document, determination methodology of emission factors, emission characteristic, accuracy of measurement and analysis, and data representative. Category in quality evaluation consisted of data management and uncertainty estimates. Based on the importance of factors in the verification process, each factor was scored separately, however, the score needs to be coordinated by the government agency. These results would help build a reliable and accurate greenhouse gas inventory report of Korea.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.287-328
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• 2019

Comprehensive understanding of the flood risk assessments via frequency analysis often demands multivariate designs under the different notations of return periods. Flood is a tri-variate random consequence, which often pointing the unreliability of univariate return period and demands for the joint dependency construction by accounting its multiple intercorrelated flood vectors i.e., flood peak, volume & durations. Selecting the most parsimonious probability functions for demonstrating univariate flood marginals distributions is often a mandatory pre-processing desire before the establishment of joint dependency. Especially under copulas methodology, which often allows the practitioner to model univariate marginals separately from their joint constructions. Parametric density approximations often hypothesized that the random samples must follow some specific or predefine probability density functions, which usually defines different estimates especially in the tail of distributions. Concentrations of the upper tail often seem interesting during flood modelling also, no evidence exhibited in favours of any fixed distributions, which often characterized through the trial and error procedure based on goodness-of-fit measures. On another side, model performance evaluations and selections of best-fitted distributions often demand precise investigations via comparing the relative sample reproducing capabilities otherwise, inconsistencies might reveal uncertainty. Also, the strength & weakness of different fitness statistics usually vary and having different extent during demonstrating gaps and dispensary among fitted distributions. In this literature, selections efforts of marginal distributions of flood variables are incorporated by employing an interactive set of parametric functions for event-based (or Block annual maxima) samples over the 50-years continuously-distributed streamflow characteristics for the Kelantan River basin at Gulliemard Bridge, Malaysia. Model fitness criteria are examined based on the degree of agreements between cumulative empirical and theoretical probabilities. Both the analytical as well as graphically visual inspections are undertaken to strengthen much decisive evidence in favour of best-fitted probability density.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.157-162
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• 2019

최근 세계적인 기상이변으로 이례적인 대설과 한파의 발생 빈도가 증가하고 있다. 이로 인해 대설피해 저감에 대한 연구가 진행되고 있으나, 우리나라는 시군구 별 과거 피해이력이 적고, 피해 발생지역과 관측소 간의 거리가 멀어 정확한 피해예측이 어려운 상황이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 대설피해에 영향을 미친다고 생각되는 인자들의 데이터를 수집한 뒤 랜덤포레스트 모형의 설명변수로 설정하여 추정되는 대설피해액을 범주형태로 예측하고자 하였다. 또한 설명변수 중 취약성 분석을 통해 도출된 취약성 지수를 설명변수로 이용함으로써 지역적 특색과 특성을 반영하였다. 지금은 과거 피해 자료의 부족, 비닐하우스 설계 기준의 변화 등으로 인해 예측 정확도가 높지 않지만, 피해가 발생한 지역의 정확한 기상자료가 확보되고, 변수로 사용한 데이터의 업데이트가 진행된다면 본 연구 결과의 정확도 향상과 재난 발생 전 피해규모 및 범위에 대한 신속한 예측을 통해 대비차원의 재난관리 대처능력이 향상될 것으로 기대된다.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제65권11호
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• pp.1868-1878
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• 2016

This paper proposes a novel velocity estimator for long-term underwater navigation of autonomous underwater vehicles(AUVs). Provided that an external position fix is not given, a viable goal in designing a underwater navigation algorithm is to reduce the divergence rate of position error only using the sporadic velocity information obtained from Doppler velocity log(DVL). For such case, the performance of underwater navigation eventually depends on accuracy and reliability of external velocity information. This motivates us to devise a velocity estimator which can drastically enhance the navigation performance even when the DVL measurement is unavailable. Incorporating the Gertler-Hagen hydrodynamics model of an AUV with the measurement models of velocity and depth sensors, the velocity estimator design problem is resolved using the extended Kalman filter. Different from the existing methods in which an AUV simulator is regarded as a virtual sensor, our approach is less sensitive to the model uncertainty often encountered in practice. This is because our velocity filter estimates the simulator errors with sensor aids and furthermore compensates these errors based on the indirect feedforward manner. Through the simulations for typical AUV navigation scenarios, the effectiveness of the proposed scheme is demonstrated.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2008년도 춘계 학술발표회 제20권1호
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• pp.73-76
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• 2008

지진에 의한 피해는 지진이 가지는 불확실성으로 인하여 확률적으로 예측하여야 한다. 취약도 분석은 교량구조물의 피해를 지반가속도에 따른 확률로 나타내고 주어진 지진파에 대한 손상확률의 단계를 추정할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 프리스트레스트 콘크리트 교량에 대한 수치적 시뮬레이션에 의한 취약도 곡선을 산출하기위해 해석적 연구를 수행하였다. 이를 위해 지반조건에 따라 각각 100개의 인공지 진파를 생성하고 비선형 시간이력해석을 수행하였다. 손상단계는 기존의 실험결과에 기초한 성능기반에 따라 정의하였으며 RC 교각의 지진거동을 변위연성도로 나타내었다. 손상단계 및 지반가속도를 이용하여 PSC교량의 지반조건에 따른 손상곡선을 도출하여 비교분석하였다. 연구결과에 따르면 지반조건 및 구속철근량에 따른 손상확률의 차이를 확인할 수 있다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.275-275
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• 2021

A fixed Z-R relationship approach, such as the Marshall-Palmer relationship, for an entire year and for different seasons can be problematic in cases where the relationship varies spatially and temporally throughout a region. From this perspective, this study explores the use of long-term radar reflectivity for South Korea to obtain a nationwide calibrated Z-R relationship and the associated uncertainties within a Bayesian regression framework. This study also investigates seasonal differences in the Z-R relationship and their roles in reducing systematic error. Distinct differences in the Z-R parameters in space are identified, and more importantly, an inverse relationship between the parameters is clearly identified with distinct regimes based on the seasons. A spatially structured pattern in the parameters exists, particularly parameter α for the wet season and parameter β for the dry season. A pronounced region of high values during the wet and dry seasons may be partially associated with storm movements in that season. Finally, the radar rainfall estimates through the calibrated Z-R relationship are compared with the existing Z-R relationships for estimating stratiform rainfall and convective rainfall. Overall, the radar rainfall fields based on the proposed modeling procedure are similar to the observed rainfall fields, whereas the radar rainfall fields obtained from the existing Marshall-Palmer Z-R relationship show a systematic underestimation. The obtained Z-R relationships are validated by testing the predictions on unseen radar-gauge pairs in the year 2018, in the context of cross-validation. The cross-validation results are largely similar to those in the calibration process, suggesting that the derived Z-R relationships fit the radar-gauge pairs reasonably well.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.353-360
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• 2012

본 논문은 파티클 필터 방법을 이용하여 로봇의 외부에 설치된 특징점들과 로봇의 위치를 동시에 추정하는 SLAM 방법을 제안한다. 파티클 필터 방법은 로봇 동작의 비선형성 및 센서 오차의 비가우시안 특성을 고려할 수 있다. 제안된 방법에서 추정할 변수는 로봇의 위치와 특징점들의 위치이다. 본 연구에서 특징점은 초음파 신호를 발생시키는 4개의 비이컨들이 사용된다. 그리고 로봇은 비이컨들로부터 초음파 신호를 수신하여 각각의 비이컨까지의 거리를 계산한다. 그리고 영역센서를 이용하여 이동로봇이 동작하는 환경의 기하학적 지도정보를 생성하는 과정을 보였다. 제안된 방법은 로봇의 위치와 방향을 추정하기 때문에 영역센서에 의해 획득된 데이터를 사용하여 기하학적 지도를 생성할 수 있다. 또한 데드레크닝 방법 및 삼변측량 방법과의 로봇 위치추정 비교 실험을 통하여 제안된 방법을 평가하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제41권7호
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• pp.945-952
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• 2009

The Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident provides unique full scale data, thus providing opportunities to check the capability of codes to model overall plant behavior and to perform a spectrum of sensitivity and uncertainty calculations. As part of the TMI-2 analysis benchmark exercise sponsored by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD NEA), several member countries are continuing to improve their system analysis codes using the TMI-2 data. The Republic of Korea joined this benchmark exercise in November 2005. Seoul National University has analyzed the TMI-2 accident as well as the currently proposed alternative scenario along with a sensitivity study using the Modular Accident Analysis Program Version 4.03 (MAAP4.03) code in collaboration with the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Company. Two input files are required to simulate the TMI-2 accident with MAAP4: the parameter file and an input deck. The user inputs various parameters, such as volumes or masses, for each component. The parameter file contains the information on TMI-2 relevant to the plant geometry, system performance, controls, and initial conditions used to perform these benchmark calculations. The input deck defines the operator actions and boundary conditions during the course of the accident. The TMI-2 accident analysis provided good estimates of the accident output data compared with the OECD TMI-2 standard reference. The alternative scenario has proposed the initial event as a loss of main feed water and a small break on the hot leg. Analysis is in progress along with a sensitivity study concerning the break size and elevation.

• 대기
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.85-97
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• 2015

This study is to investigate future changes in carbon cycle using the HadGEM2-Carbon Cycle simulations driven by $CO_2$ emissions. For experiment, global carbon budget is integrated from the two (8.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the period of 1860~2100 by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (Had-GEM2-CC). From 1985 to 2005, total cumulative $CO_2$ amount of anthropogenic emission prescribed as 156 GtC. The amount matches to the observed estimates (CDIAC) over the same period (136 GtC). As $CO_2$ emissions into the atmosphere increase, the similar increasing tendency is found in the simulated atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration and temperature. Atmospheric $CO_2$ concentration in the simulation is projected to be 430 ppm for RCP 2.6 at the end of the twenty-first century and as high as 931 ppm for RCP 8.5. Simulated global mean temperature is expected to rise by $1.6^{\circ}C$ and $3.5^{\circ}C$ for RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. Land and ocean carbon uptakes also increase in proportion to the $CO_2$ emissions of RCPs. The fractions of the amount of $CO_2$ stored in atmosphere, land, and ocean are different in RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Further study is needed for reducing the simulation uncertainty based on multiple model simulations.