• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제43권4호
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• pp.352-361
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• 2010

Objectives: This study estimated the annual socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease in 2008 from a societal perspective and using a cost-of-illness method. Methods: Our model employed a comprehensive set of diagnostic disease codes to define food-borne diseases with using the Korea National Health Insurance (KNHI) reimbursement data. This study classified the food borne illness as three types of symptoms according to the severity of the illness: mild, moderate, severe. In addition to the traditional method of assessing the cost-of-illness, the study included measures to account for the lost quality of life. We estimated the cost of the lost quality of life using quality-adjusted life years and a visual analog scale. The direct cost included medical and medication costs, and the non-medical costs included transportation costs, caregiver's cost and administration costs. The lost productivity costs included lost workdays due to illness and lost earnings due to premature death. Results: The study found the estimated annual socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease in 2008 were 954.9 billion won (735.3 billion won-996.9 billion won). The medical cost was 73.4 -76.8% of the cost, the lost productivity cost was 22.6% and the cost of the lost quality of life was 26.0%. Conclusions: Most of the cost-of-illness studies are known to have underestimated the actual socioeconomic costs of the subjects, and these studies excluded many important social costs, such as the value of pain, suffering and functional disability. The study addressed the uncertainty related to estimating the socioeconomic costs of food-borne disease as well as the updated cost estimates. Our estimates could contribute to develop and evaluate policies for food-borne disease.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.99-99
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• 2022

Jeju island has a humid subtropical climate and this climate zone is expected to migrate northward toward the main land, Korea Peninsula, as temperature increases are accelerated. Vegetation type has been inevitably shifted along with the climatic change, having more subtropical species native in southeast Asia or even in Africa. With the forest composition shift, it becomes more important than ever to analyze the water balance of the forest wihth the ongoing as well as upcoming climate change. Here, we implemented the Ecosystem Demography Biosphere Model (ED2) by initializing the key variables using forest inventory data (diameter at breast height in 2012). Out of 10,000 parameter sets randomly generated from prior distribution distributions of each parameter (i.e., Monte-Carlo Method), we selected four behavioral parameter sets using remote-sensing data (LAI-MOD15A2H, GPP-MOD17A2H, and ET-MOD16A2, 8-days at 500-m during 2001-2005), and evaluated the performances using eddy-covariance carbon flux data (2012 Mar.-Sep. 30-min) and remote sensing data between 2006-2020. We simulated each of the four RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from four climate forcings (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MIROC5 from ISIMIP2b). Based on those 64 simulation sets, we estimate the changes in water balance resulting from the forest composition shift, and also uncertainty in the estimates and the sensitivity of the estimates to the parameters, climate forcings, and RCP scenarios.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권13호
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• pp.5493-5498
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• 2015

Due to the lack of nationwide population-based cancer registration, the total cancer prevalence in Iran is unknown. Our previous work in which we used a basic network scale-up (NSU) method, failed to provide plausible estimates of total cancer prevalence in Kerman. The aim of the present study was to estimate total and partial prevalence of cancer in southeastern Iran using an adapted version of the generalized network scale-up method. A survey was conducted in 2014 using multi-stage cluster sampling. A total of 1995 face-to-face gender-matched interviews were performed based on an adapted version of the NSU questionnaire. Interviewees were asked about their family cancer history. Total and partial prevalence were estimated using a generalized NSU estimator. The Monte Carlo method was adopted for the estimation of upper/lower bounds of the uncertainty range of point estimates. One-yr, 2-3 yr, and 4-5 yr prevalence (per 100,000 people) was respectively estimated at 78 (95%CI, 66, 90), 128 (95%CI, 118, 147), and 59 (95%CI, 49, 70) for women, and 48 (95%CI, 38, 58), 78 (95%CI, 66, 91), and 42 (95%CI, 32, 52) for men. The 5-yr prevalence of all cancers was estimated at 0.18 percent for men, and 0.27 percent for women. This study showed that the generalized familial network scale-up method is capable of estimating cancer prevalence, with acceptable precision.

• 한국지반공학회논문집
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• 제27권8호
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• pp.51-61
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• 2011

지층의 두께와 심도의 공간적 분포추정은 연약지반설계에 중요한 과정이다. 전통적인 크리깅 기법에서 채택되어 온 최소 분산기준은 항상 의사결정과정에 있어서 최적의 추정결과를 보장해 주지 않는다. 본 연구에서는 최적 압밀층 두께와 연직배수공법 적용 면적을 결정하기 위해 지시자 방법과 손실함수를 바탕으로 한 지구통계학적 방법을 사용하였다. 본 논문에서 제시한 예제를 통하여 사용하는 손실함수의 형태에 따라서 최적 추정값이 상이할 수 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 논문에서 이용한 손실함수를 고려할 수 있는 설계방법이 지반공학분야에도 잘 적용될 수 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 대한수의학회지
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.223-231
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• 2005

A quantitative risk assessment tool was used to provide estimates of the probability that foot-and-mouth (FMD) virus-contaminated, smuggled animal products are fed to susceptible swine in Korea. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to attempt to distinguish between parameter uncertainty and variability, using different assumptions on the effect of cooking at home, the effect of the fresh meat, and the effect of heat treatment at garbage processing facility. The median risk estimate was about 20.1% with a mean value of 27.4%. In a scenario regarding all beef and pork were considered as fresh meat the estimated median risk was 3.4%. The risk was greatly dependent on the survival parameters of the FMD virus during the cooking or heat treatment at garbage processing facility. Uncertainty about the proportion of garbage that is likely contaminated with FMD had a major positive influence on the risk, whereas conversion rate representing the size of a load had a major negative effect. This model was very useful in assessing the risk explored. However, the model also requires enhancements, such as the availability of more accurate data to verify the various assumptions considered such as FMD prevalence in a specific country, proportion of garbage which is recycled as feed, proportion of food discarded as garbage. Other factors including the effect of selection of animals for slaughter, ante- and post-mortem inspection, the domestic distribution of the smuggled products, and susceptible animals other than pigs, are need to be taken into account in the future model development.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제36권5호
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• pp.353-363
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• 2020

Hydrologic models can be classified into two types: those for understanding physical processes and those for predicting hydrologic quantities. This study deals with how to use the model to predict today's stream flow based on the system's knowledge of yesterday's state and the model parameters. In this regard, for the model to generate accurate predictions, the uncertainty of the parameters and appropriate estimates of the state variables are required. In this study, a relatively simple hydrologic partitioning model is proposed that can explicitly implement the hydrologic partitioning process, and the posterior distribution of the parameters of the proposed model is estimated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Further, the application method of the ensemble Kalman filter is proposed for updating the normalized soil moisture, which is the state variable of the model, by linking the information on the posterior distribution of the parameters and by assimilating the observed steam flow data. The stochastically and recursively estimated stream flows using the data assimilation technique revealed better representation of the observed data than the stream flows predicted using the deterministic model. Therefore, the ensemble Kalman filter in conjunction with the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach could be a reliable and effective method for forecasting daily stream flow, and it could also be a suitable method for routinely updating and monitoring the watershed-averaged soil moisture.

• 천문학회보
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.79-79
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• 2010

To investigate whether the present-day active galaxies follow the same black hole mass vs. stellar velocity dispersion (MBH-$\sigma*$) relation as quiescent galaxies, we measured the velocity dispersions of a sample of local Seyfert 1 galaxies, for which black hole masses were measured via reverberation mapping. We measured stellar velocity dispersions from high S/N optical spectra centered on the Ca II triplet region (${\sim}8500^{\circ}A$), obtained at the Keck, Palomar, and Lick Observatories. For two objects, in which the Ca II triplet region was contaminated by nuclear emission, we used high-quality H-band spectra obtained with the OH-Suppressing Infrared Imaging Spectrograph and laser-guide star adaptive optics at the Keck-II Telescope. Combining our new measurements with data from the literature, we assemble a sample of 24 active galaxies with stellar velocity dispersions and reverberation MBH in the range of black hole mass 106< MBH /$M{\odot}$ < 109,toobtainthefirstreverberationmappingconstraintsontheslopeandintrinsicscatteroftheMBH- $\sigma*$ relation of active galaxies. Assuming a constant virial coefficient f for the reverberation MBH, we find a slope ${\beta}=3.55{\pm}0.60$ and the intrinsic scatter ${\sigma}int=0.43{\pm}0.08$ dex in the relation log (MBH/M${\odot}$)=$\alpha+\beta$ log(${\sigma}*$/200 km s-1), which are consistent with those found for quiescent galaxies. We derive an updated value of the virial coefficient f by finding the value which places the reverberation masses in best agreement with the MBH - $\sigma*$ relation of quiescent galaxies; using the quiescent MBH - $\sigma*$ relation determined by Gultekin et al. we find log f=0.72+0.09 (or $0.71{\pm}0.10$) with an intrinsic scatter of $0.44{\pm}0.07$ (or 0.46+0.07) dex. No correlations between f and parameters connected to the physics of accretion (such as the Eddington ratio or line-shape measurements) are found. The uncertainty of the virial coefficient remains one of the main sources of the uncertainty in black hole mass determination using reverberation mapping, and therefore also in single-epoch spectroscopic estimates of black hole masses in active galaxies.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제50권1호
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• pp.17-28
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• 2017

최근 국지성 집중호우 및 돌발홍수와 같은 급격한 기상변화로 인한 기상재해의 발생빈도가 증가함에 따라 고해상도의 기상레이더 강우자료를 사용한 수공학 분야의 연구가 활발하게 진행되고 있다. 기상레이더는 넓은 지역에 걸쳐 실시간으로 강우현상 감시가 가능하며 지상우량계로는 파악이 불가능한 미계측유역을 통과하는 강우장의 이동 및 변동성 파악이 가능한 장점이 있지만 대기 중 존재하는 수상체로부터 반사되는 반사도를 사용하여 강우량을 산정하므로 시공간적 오차가 존재한다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 문제점을 해결하기 위하여 다변량 Copula 함수를 활용하여 레이더 강우에 존재하는 시공간적 오차를 규명하고 레이더 강우앙상블 생산기법을 개발하였다. 개발된 모형으로부터 생산된 레이더 강우앙상블은 통계적 효율기준 분석결과 우수한 모형성능을 확인하였으며 추가적으로 극치호우 및 강우시계열 패턴 분석결과 지상강우의 특성을 효과적으로 재현하는 것을 확인하였다.

• 전자공학회논문지SC
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• 제48권3호
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• pp.21-29
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• 2011

본 논문은 스테레오 비전 시스템에서 객체의 기동 상태에 상관없이 안정된 거리 및 속도를 추정할 수 있는 방법을 제안한다. 스테레오 비전은 좌우 영상의 시차를 이용하여 거리를 추정할 수 있지만, 영상 화소의 양자화 오차로 인해 거리 오차가 발생할 수 있다. 부화소 보간법은 이러한 양자화 오차를 최소화하여 실수를 갖는 정밀 시차를 추정할 수 있다. 확장형 칼만 필터는 추정된 정밀 시차의 공분산을 최소화하고 객체의 속도를 추정하기 위하여 사용되어진다. 하지만, 시스템 모델의 불확실성으로 인해 기동이 발생했을 때, 발산 문제가 생기고 이는 오히려 추정 오차를 증가시킨다. 본 논문에서는 연산 시간을 최소화하면서, 객체의 기동 상태에 상관없이 안정된 상태 추정 성능을 제공할 수 있는 가상 모델 확장형 칼만 필터를 제안한다. 모의실험 및 실제 도로 환경에서의 실험 결과는 제안한 방법이 기존 추정 필터들에 비하여, 다양한 기동 상태에서 안정된 추정 성능과 향상된 연산시간을 제공한다는 것을 보여준다.

• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.391-399
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• 2012

본 논문에서는 파티클 필터 방법을 이용한 이동로봇의 SLAM(Simultaneous Localization and Mapping) 방법을 제안한다. 이동로봇의 SLAM은 지도가 주어지지 않는 환경에서 로봇 스스로 자신의 위치를 파악하는 것과 동시에 지도를 만드는 것이다. 제안된 방법은 로봇의 위치를 추정함과 동시에 특징점인 외부 비이컨들의 위치를 추정하는 방법을 다루고 있다. 특히 파티클 필터 방법을 적용하여 이동로봇과 특징점 위치를 파티클의 분포에 의해 확률적으로 표현한다. 제안된 SLAM방법은 이동로봇의 동작 뿐 아니라 특징점 위치의 불확실성을 고려한다. 따라서 매 샘플링 시각에 특징점의 위치 정보도 불확실성을 고려하여 예측되어진다. 제안된 방법의 성능을 시뮬레이션과 실험을 통하여 평가하였다. 제안된 방법은 비이컨으로 부터의 거리 정보에 불규칙한 잡음이 있는 환경에서도 실질적으로 사용가능한 지도 정보를 제공하였다. 또한 통상의 최소자승법이나 데드레크닝 방법에 비해서 보다 정확하고 강건하게 로봇의 위치를 추정하였다.