• Plant Journal
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.39-43
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• 2011

Due to the recent uncertainty of market situations such as the escalation of petroleum prices, increased production capacities of plants, limitations of the available EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction) contractors, and the increase of raw material prices, EPC contractors have had a tendency to include a higher reserve contingency in the lump-sum turnkey contract price. In order to overcome the changes in the market, the plant project construction industry has started to apply the converted lump-sum turnkey contract in plant construction market. This study was focused to find the associated risks and to analyse the identified risks on recent trend of application of the new contract type, which is the converted lump-sum turnkey contract. It was recognized from the analysis that quality and cost have more high priority risks than other project objectives. This paper also suggests the mitigation plan for identified risks to achieve project objectives appropriate to the converted lump-sum turnkey project from the viewpoint of an EPC contractor keeping transparency with owner.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.19 no.7
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• pp.154-162
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• 2002

The effect of nonlinear friction in the low velocity is dominant in precise controlled mechanisms and it is difficult to model. This paper is concerned with the compensation for friction using the variable structure system approach as nonmodel based method. The problem of chattering in the sliding mode controller is suppressed by the implementation of the boundary layer concept. And the estimation for friction using sliding mode observer makes the upper bound of matched uncertainty reduced. Accordingly, the effect of chattering can be more suppressed. And the sliding surface is constructed by adding an integral component to the switching function that is made by using error dynamics. This sliding surface guarantees the good tracking performance. Experimental results for a XY table system show that the proposed method has a good performance especially in the low velocity.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.468-473
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• 2014

This paper describes the in-flight alignment of SDINS (Strapdown Inertial Navigation Systems) using an EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) and a UKF (Unscented Kalam Filter), which allow large initial attitude error uncertainty. Regardless of the inertial sensors, there are nonlinear error dynamics of SDINS in cases of large initial attitude errors. A UKF that is one of the nonlinear filtering approaches for IFA (In-Flight Alignment) are used to estimate the attitude errors. Even though the EKF linearized model makes velocity errors when predicting incorrectly in case of large attitude errors, a UKF can represent correctly the velocity errors variations of attitude errors with nonlinear attitude error components. Simulation results and analyses show that a UKF works well to handle large initial attitude errors of SDINS and the alignment error attitude estimation performance are quite improved.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.513-519
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• 2013

The current vision-based approaches for emotion recognition, such as facial expression analysis, have many technical limitations in real circumstances, and are not suitable for applications that use them solely in practical environments. In this paper, we propose an approach for emotion recognition by combining extrinsic representations and intrinsic activities among the natural responses of humans which are given specific imuli for inducing emotional states. The intrinsic activities can be used to compensate the uncertainty of extrinsic representations of emotional states. This combination is done by using PRMs (Probabilistic Relational Models) which are extent version of bayesian networks and are learned by greedy-search algorithms and expectation-maximization algorithms. Previous research of facial expression-related extrinsic emotion features and physiological signal-based intrinsic emotion features are combined into the attributes of the PRMs in the emotion recognition domain. The maximum likelihood estimation with the given dependency structure and estimated parameter set is used to classify the label of the target emotional states.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.20 no.7
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• pp.33-44
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• 2004

This paper is focused on the spatial variability of measured strong motion data during earthquake and its relationship with the performance of water distribution pipelines and residential buildings. Analyses of strong motion and the correlations of peak ground velocity (PGV) and pipeline and building damage were conducted with a very large geographical information system (GIS) database including the relationship of time and earthquake intensity and the measured location, and Kriging spatial statistics. Kriging was used to develop regressions of pipeline repair rate (RR) and residential building damage ratio (DR) associated with $90\%$ confidence peak ground velocity (PGV). Such regressions using Kriging provide an explicit means of characterizing the uncertainty embodied in the strong motion data compared with other spacial statistics such as inverse distance method.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.33 no.8
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• pp.745-752
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• 2009

In robust design, the mean and variance of design performance are frequently used to measure the design performance and its robustness under uncertainties. In this paper, we present the Gauss-type quadrature formula as a rigorous method for mean and variance estimation involving arbitrary input distributions and further extend its use to robust design optimization. One dimensional Gauss-type quadrature formula are constructed from the input probability distributions and utilized in the construction of multidimensional quadrature formula such as the tensor product quadrature (TPQ) formula and the univariate dimension reduction (UDR) method. To improve the efficiency of using it for robust design optimization, a semi-analytic design sensitivity analysis with respect to the statistical moments is proposed. The proposed approach is applied to a simple bench mark problems and robust topology optimization of structures considering various types of uncertainty.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.7-10
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• 2008

As the land price in the downtown area increases, buildings are becoming bigger, deeper and higher. Consequently, the importance of underground construction has increased. Although construction engineers make every effort to complete underground construction without any problem, construction failures like landslides and the collapse of a retaining wall occur because of the uncertainty of the soil conditions as well as the unexpected risks of excavation work. In order to prevent potential excavation accidents, it is essential to understand the causes and impacts of such accidents. However, there are only a few examples of construction failures, which show the economic impact on accidents during excavation because of the sensibility of the information. This paper presents two cases of excavation accidents, which were investigated by construction insurance company. The compensation for the accidents paid by the insurance company was compared with the estimated costs calculated based on the estimation method for excavation accidents proposed by our previous study. The comparison results showed that the estimate calculated by our method was much less than the actual compensation because the estimate solely focused on the construction costs whereas the compensation included other external factors.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.256-272
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• 2017

Extreme rainfall has become more frequent over the Korean peninsula in recent years, causing serious damages. In a changing climate, traditional approaches based on historical records of rainfall and on the stationary assumption can be inadequate and lead to overestimate (or underestimate) the design rainfalls. A main objective of this study is to develop a stochastic disaggregation method of seasonal rainfall to hourly extreme rainfall, and offer a way to derive the nonstationary IDF curves. In this study, we propose a novel approach based on a Four-Parameter Beta (4P-beta) distribution to estimate the nonstationary IDF curves conditioned on the observed (or simulated) seasonal rainfall, which becomes the time-varying upper bound of the 4P beta distribution. Moreover, this study employed a Bayesian framework that provides a better way to take into account the uncertainty in the model parameters. The proposed model showed a comparable design rainfall to that of GEV distribution under the stationary assumption. As a nonstationary rainfall frequency model, the proposed model can effectively translate the seasonal variation into the sub-daily extreme rainfall.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.1-9
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• 2011

A bibliographical review of Gy sampling theory for particulate materials was conducted to provide readers with useful means to reduce errors in soil contamination investigation. According to the Gy theory, the errors caused by the heterogeneous nature of soil include; the fundamental error (FE) caused by physical and chemical constitutional heterogeneity, the grouping and segregation error (GE) aroused from gravitational force, long-range heterogeneous fluctuation error ($CE_2$), the periodic heterogeneity fluctuation error ($CE_3$), and the materialization error (ME) generated during physical process of sample treatment. However, the accurate estimation of $CE_2$ and $CE_3$ cannot be estimated easily and only increasing sampling locations can reduce the magnitude of the errors. In addition, incremental sampling is the only method to reduce GE while grab sampling should be avoided as it introduces uncertainty and errors to the sampling process. Correct preparation and operation of sampling tools are important factors in reducing the incremental delimitation error (DE) and extraction error (EE) which are resulted from physical processes in the sampling. Therefore, Gy sampling theory can be used efficiently in planning a strategy for soil investigations of non-volatile and non-reactive samples.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.1900-1904
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• 2007

지금까지 수공구조물의 설계와 기존 시설의 안전도를 평가시 수문, 수리 및 경제학적 함수들에서 발생하는 불확실성을 설명하기 위하여 안전율 또는 여유고를 증가시키거나 이들 정보의 양과 질을 증가시켜 데이터베이스를 확장하고 측정오차를 최소화시키며, 전통적인 통계해석을 적용하였다. 공공의 안전을 확보하기 위하여 설계과정에 안전율 또는 여유고가 도입되었으나 이것은 단순히 보다 높은 재현기간의 적용을 의미하며, 수문현상이 가지는 추계학적 특성보다 확정론적인 근거로부터 안전설계 개념이 개발되었다. 수자원 계획시 고려되는 부하와 저항은 확정론적인 고정치가 아니라 시간에 따라 변하고 동적이며, 무작위적이므로 확률 변수로서 고려되어야 한다. 이에 따라 최근 수자원 계획과정에서 불확실성 해석에 의한 위험도 분석 개념이 도입되고 있으며, 특히 이상기후 및 집중호우의 빈발, 급격한 도시화로 인한 유출양상의 변화 등으로 급증하고 있는 훙수피해를 감안할 때 설계빈도의 상향조정과 같은 확정론적인 방법보다는 매개변수 또는 함수의 불확실성을 고려한 위험도 해석의 필요성이 더욱 증대되고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 수자원 계획시 입력자료 및 매개변수의 불확실성과 불확실성의 분리를 고려한 홍수량의 산정 및 각 매개변수의 영향을 평가하여 홍수위험도 해석에 있어서 모델 매개변수의 영향 규명과 처리방안을 제시하고자 한다.