• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.762-769
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• 2024

The TMSR-SF0 simulator is an integral effect thermal-hydraulic experimental system for the development of thorium molten salt reactor (TMSR) program in China. The simulator has two heat transport loops with liquid FLiNaK. In literature, the 95% level confidence uncertainties of the thermophysical properties of FLiNaK are recommended, and the uncertainties of density, heat capacity, thermal conductivity and viscosity are ±2%, ±10, ±10% and ±10% respectively. In order to investigate the effects of thermophysical properties uncertainties on the molten salt heat transport system, the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the heat transfer characteristics of the simulator system are carried out on a RELAP5 model. The uncertainties of thermophysical properties are incorporated in simulation model and the Monte Carlo sampling method is used to propagate the input uncertainties through the model. The simulation results indicate that the uncertainty propagated to core outlet temperature is about ±10 ℃ with a confidence level of 95% in a steady-state operation condition. The result should be noted in the design, operation and code validation of molten salt reactor. In addition, more experimental data is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of thermophysical properties of molten salts.

• 한국연안방재학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.111-120
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• 2019

In coastal morphological modelling, there are a number of input factors: wave height, water depth, sand particle size, bed friction coefficients, coastal structures and so forth. Measurements or estimates of these input data may include uncertainties due to errors by the measurement or hind-casting methods. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the uncertainty of each input data and the range of the uncertainty during the evaluation of numerical results. In this study, three uncertainty factors are considered with regard to the prediction of coastal erosion in Ilsan beach located in Ilsan-dong, Ulsan metropolitan city. Those are wave diffraction effect of XBeach model, wave input scenario and the specification of the coastal structure. For this purpose, the values of mean wave direction, significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater were adjusted respectively and the followed numerical results of morphological changes are analyzed. There were erosion dominant patterns as the wave direction is perpendicular to Ilsan beach, the higher significant wave height, and the lower height of the submerged breakwater. Furthermore, the rate of uncertainty impacts among mean wave direction, significant wave height and the height of the submerged breakwater are compared. In the study area, the uncertainty influence by the wave input scenario was the largest, followed by the height of the submerged breakwater and the mean wave direction.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제75권3호
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• pp.311-325
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• 2020

In applying the spectral stochastic finite element methods to the frequency response analysis, the conventional methods are known to give unstable and inaccurate results near the natural frequencies. To address this issue, a new sensitivity based stabilized formulation for stochastic frequency response analysis is proposed in this paper. The main difference over the conventional spectral methods is that the polynomials of random variables are applied to both numerator and denominator in approximating the harmonic response solution. In order to reflect the resonance behavior of the structure, the denominator polynomials is constructed by utilizing the natural frequency sensitivity and the random mode superposition. The numerator is approximated by applying a polynomial chaos expansion, and its coefficients are obtained through the Galerkin or the spectral projection method. Through various numerical studies, it is seen that the proposed method improves accuracy, especially in the vicinities of structural natural frequencies compared to conventional spectral methods.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제78권5호
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• pp.529-543
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• 2021

Inevitable source-uncertainties in geometry configuration, boundary condition, and material properties may deviate the structural dynamics from its expected responses. This paper aims to examine the influence of these uncertainties on the vibration of functionally graded beams. Finite element procedures are presented for Timoshenko beams and utilized to generate reliable datasets. A prerequisite to the uncertainty quantification of the beam vibration using Monte Carlo simulation is generating large datasets, that require executing the numerical procedure many times leading to high computational cost. Utilizing artificial neural networks to model beam vibration can be a good approach. Initially, the optimal network for each beam configuration can be determined based on numerical performance and probabilistic criteria. Instead of executing thousands of times of the finite element procedure in stochastic analysis, these optimal networks serve as good alternatives to which the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulation, and the sensitivity and probabilistic vibration characteristics of each beam exposed to randomness are investigated. The simple procedure presented here is efficient to quantify the uncertainty of different stochastic behaviors of composite structures.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제20권12호
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• pp.1541-1551
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• 2011

This study applied the Bayesian method for the quantification of the parameter uncertainty of spatial linear mixed model in the estimation of the spatial distribution of probability rainfall. In the application of Bayesian method, the prior sensitivity analysis was implemented by using the priors normally selected in the existing studies which applied the Bayesian method for the puppose of assessing the influence which the selection of the priors of model parameters had on posteriors. As a result, the posteriors of parameters were differently estimated which priors were selected, and then in the case of the prior combination, F-S-E, the sizes of uncertainty intervals were minimum and the modes, means and medians of the posteriors were similar to the estimates using the existing classical methods. From the comparitive analysis between Bayesian and plug-in spatial predictions, we could find that the uncertainty of plug-in prediction could be slightly underestimated than that of Bayesian prediction.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 2000년도 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.593-598
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• 2000

In this paper the critical speed analysis and design sensitivity investigation are carried out with an APU(auxiliary power unit) gas turbine having a spline shaft connection. The DDM(direct differential method) is directly applied to formulate the critical speed design sensitivity problem of a general nonsymmetric-matrix rotor-bearing system. The design sensitivity analysis have shown that the critical speed change rate to the support modeling of the spline shaft connection point is extremely negligible, and thereby its design uncertainty is lifted. It has also been confirmed that the critical speeds up to the 4th are not sensitive to the design stiffness coefficients of 4-main bearings or supports, including two air foil bearings. Further, the critical speed change rate to the shaft-element length have shown quantitatively that the spline shaft has some limited influence on the 4th critical speed.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2004년도 추계 학술발표회 제16권2호
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• pp.773-776
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• 2004

The so-called Life Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis on reinforced concrete bridge can provide useful information for initial design and maintenance plan of the RC bridge. This paper proposes an LCC prediction equation and a sensitivity analysis method for RC bridges. An LCC equation for the RC bridge which includes initial investment cost, maintenance cost, and demolition cost was derived and verified from the data for design and construction of an RC slab bridge. In order to solve uncertainty problem on actual discount rate and material characteristics in the analysis of LCC of concrete bridges, a sensitivity analysis method on the LCC using the Monte Carlo simulation technique was suggested.

• 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국소음진동공학회 2009년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.119-123
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• 2009

Recently, a MEMS gyroscope has been broadly fabricated and used due to development of a micromachining. However, there is a difference between the modeling design and the actual product and this difference can lead to the performance variation of a MEMS gyroscope. A classical design method does not exactly estimate the performance of a MEMS gyroscope. Therefore a design process considering the design variable uncertainty has to be employed to design MEMS gyroscope model. In this paper, the equation of motion of a MEMS gyroscope model is obtained to analyze the performance of a MEMS gyroscope and the effects of the design variables on the MEMS gyroscope performance are investigated. Finally the performance of MEMS gyroscope is estimated through a statistical analysis based on sample statistics.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.129-139
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• 2004

의료 및 산업체에서 중형방사선 선원의 사용증가는 정규 및 사고시 작업자와 일반인에 대해 방사선 노출의 위험을 초래한다. 본 연구에서는 중형 의료용 선원을 사용하는 $^{99m}Tc$ 발생기에 대한 위험도 평가를 수행하였다. 사건수목기법을 활용하여 국내 현실에 적합한 시나리오를 도출하였으며, 정규 및 사고시로 나누어 작업자와 일반인에 대해서 몬테칼로 기법에 의거한 불확실성 분석을 수행하였다. 아울러 위험도결과에 가장 영향을 미치는 인자를 알아보기 위해 5가지 독립변수에 대한 민감도 분석을 수행하였다. 빈도수의 기여로 인해 정규작업에 대한 위험도가 사고시 위험도보다 높게 평가되었다. $^{99m}Tc$ 발생기의 경우 정규작업 시 작업자 $0.6mSvy^{-1}$, 일반인 $0.014mSvy^{-1}$ 이며 사고시 작업자 $3.96mSvy^{-1}$, 일반인 $0.0016mSvy^{-1}$로 평가되었다. 정규작업 보다 사고시의 불확실성 범위가 10배 정도 더 높게 나타났다. 또한 민감도 분석 결과 선원의 강도, 작업거리, 작업시간이 위험도에 가장 영향을 미치는 인자로 나타났다. 이리한 위험도 평간 방법론과 결과는 중대형 선원에 대한 위험도 정보 활용 규제 (Risk-Informed Regulation)에 유용할 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2001년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.459-465
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• 2001

The Prefabricated Vertical Drain(PVD) method is most widely used technique to accelerate the consolidation process and to strengthen the weak clayey soil in situ. Uncertainty in the consolidation process via the Prefabricated Vertical Drain(PVD), and the effects of uncertainty on the design of PVDs, are investigated in this paper, Among the effect factors, the coefficient of horizontal(radial) consolidation, C$\sub$h/, is the most important and sensitivity analysis of the degree of consolidation with respect to the other effect factors are carried out. For the reliable determination of uncertain quantities, the laboratory and in-situ tests are carried out. Henceforth, probability analysis that take the uncertainty into account are executed and reliable design method is provided in practice.