• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertainty Factor

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Technology Innovation Activity and Default Risk (기술혁신활동이 부도위험에 미치는 영향 : 한국 유가증권시장 및 코스닥시장 상장기업을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Jin-Su
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.55-80
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    • 2009
  • Technology innovation activity plays a pivotal role in constructing the entrance barrier for other firms and making process improvement and new product. and these activities give a profit increase and growth to firms. Thus, technology innovation activity can reduce the default risk of firms. However, technology innovation activity can also increase the firm's default risk because technology innovation activity requires too much investment of the firm's resources and has the uncertainty on success. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of technology innovation activity on the default risk of firms. This study's sample consists of manufacturing firms listed on the Korea Securities Market and The Kosdaq Market from January 1,2000 to December 31, 2008. This study makes use of R&D intensity as an proxy variable of technology innovation activity. The default probability which proxies the default risk of firms is measured by the Merton's(l974) debt pricing model. The main empirical results are as follows. First, from the empirical results, it is found that technology innovation activity has a negative and significant effect on the default risk of firms independent of the Korea Securities Market and Kosdaq Market. In other words, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms. Second, technology innovation activity reduces the default risk of firms independent of firm size, firm age, and credit score. Third, the results of robust analysis also show that technology innovation activity is the important factor which decreases the default risk of firms. These results imply that a manager must show continuous interest and investment in technology innovation activity of one's firm. And a policymaker also need design an economic policy to promote the technology innovation activity of firms.

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Prediction of a hit drama with a pattern analysis on early viewing ratings (초기 시청시간 패턴 분석을 통한 대흥행 드라마 예측)

  • Nam, Kihwan;Seong, Nohyoon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.33-49
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    • 2018
  • The impact of TV Drama success on TV Rating and the channel promotion effectiveness is very high. The cultural and business impact has been also demonstrated through the Korean Wave. Therefore, the early prediction of the blockbuster success of TV Drama is very important from the strategic perspective of the media industry. Previous studies have tried to predict the audience ratings and success of drama based on various methods. However, most of the studies have made simple predictions using intuitive methods such as the main actor and time zone. These studies have limitations in predicting. In this study, we propose a model for predicting the popularity of drama by analyzing the customer's viewing pattern based on various theories. This is not only a theoretical contribution but also has a contribution from the practical point of view that can be used in actual broadcasting companies. In this study, we collected data of 280 TV mini-series dramas, broadcasted over the terrestrial channels for 10 years from 2003 to 2012. From the data, we selected the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked 45 TV drama and analyzed the viewing patterns of them by 11-step. The various assumptions and conditions for modeling are based on existing studies, or by the opinions of actual broadcasters and by data mining techniques. Then, we developed a prediction model by measuring the viewing-time distance (difference) using Euclidean and Correlation method, which is termed in our study similarity (the sum of distance). Through the similarity measure, we predicted the success of dramas from the viewer's initial viewing-time pattern distribution using 1~5 episodes. In order to confirm that the model is shaken according to the measurement method, various distance measurement methods were applied and the model was checked for its dryness. And when the model was established, we could make a more predictive model using a grid search. Furthermore, we classified the viewers who had watched TV drama more than 70% of the total airtime as the "passionate viewer" when a new drama is broadcasted. Then we compared the drama's passionate viewer percentage the most highly ranked and the least highly ranked dramas. So that we can determine the possibility of blockbuster TV mini-series. We find that the initial viewing-time pattern is the key factor for the prediction of blockbuster dramas. From our model, block-buster dramas were correctly classified with the 75.47% accuracy with the initial viewing-time pattern analysis. This paper shows high prediction rate while suggesting audience rating method different from existing ones. Currently, broadcasters rely heavily on some famous actors called so-called star systems, so they are in more severe competition than ever due to rising production costs of broadcasting programs, long-term recession, aggressive investment in comprehensive programming channels and large corporations. Everyone is in a financially difficult situation. The basic revenue model of these broadcasters is advertising, and the execution of advertising is based on audience rating as a basic index. In the drama, there is uncertainty in the drama market that it is difficult to forecast the demand due to the nature of the commodity, while the drama market has a high financial contribution in the success of various contents of the broadcasting company. Therefore, to minimize the risk of failure. Thus, by analyzing the distribution of the first-time viewing time, it can be a practical help to establish a response strategy (organization/ marketing/story change, etc.) of the related company. Also, in this paper, we found that the behavior of the audience is crucial to the success of the program. In this paper, we define TV viewing as a measure of how enthusiastically watching TV is watched. We can predict the success of the program successfully by calculating the loyalty of the customer with the hot blood. This way of calculating loyalty can also be used to calculate loyalty to various platforms. It can also be used for marketing programs such as highlights, script previews, making movies, characters, games, and other marketing projects.

Exploring the Factors Influencing on the Accuracy of Self-Reported Responses in Affective Assessment of Science (과학과 자기보고식 정의적 영역 평가의 정확성에 영향을 주는 요소 탐색)

  • Chung, Sue-Im;Shin, Donghee
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.363-377
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    • 2019
  • This study reveals the aspects of subjectivity in the test results in a science-specific aspect when assessing science-related affective characteristic through self-report items. The science-specific response was defined as the response that appear due to student's recognition of nature or characteristics of science when his or her concepts or perceptions about science were attempted to measure. We have searched for cases where science-specific responses especially interfere with the measurement objective or accurate self-reports. The results of the error due to the science-specific factors were derived from the quantitative data of 649 students in the 1st and 2nd grade of high school and the qualitative data of 44 students interviewed. The perspective of science and the characteristics of science that students internalize from everyday life and science learning experiences interact with the items that form the test tool. As a result, it was found that there were obstacles to accurate self-report in three aspects: characteristics of science, personal science experience, and science in tool. In terms of the characteristic of science in relation to the essential aspect of science, students respond to items regardless of the measuring constructs, because of their views and perceived characteristics of science based on subjective recognition. The personal science experience factor representing the learner side consists of student's science motivation, interaction with science experience, and perception of science and life. Finally, from the instrumental point of view, science in tool leads to terminological confusion due to the uncertainty of science concepts and results in a distance from accurate self-report eventually. Implications from the results of the study are as follows: review of inclusion of science-specific factors, precaution to clarify the concept of measurement, check of science specificity factors at the development stage, and efforts to cross the boundaries between everyday science and school science.

An Empirical Analysis of Accelerator Investment Determinants: A Longitudinal Study on Investment Determinants and Investment Performance (액셀러레이터 투자결정요인 실증 분석: 투자결정요인과 투자성과에 대한 종단 연구)

  • Jin Young Joo;Jeong Min Nam
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2023
  • This study attempted to identify the relationship between the investment determinants of accelerators and investment performance through empirical analysis. Through literature review, four dimensions and 12 measurement items were extracted for investment determinants, which are independent variables, and investment performance was adjusted to the cumulative amount of subsequent investment based on previous studies. Performance data from 594 companies selected by TIPS from 2017 to 2019, which are relatively reliable and easy to secure data, were collected, and the subsequent investment cumulative attraction amount, which is a dependent variable, was hypothesized through multiple regression analysis three years after the investment. As a result of the study, 'industrial experience years' in the characteristics of founders, 'market size', 'market growth', 'competitive strength', and 'number of patents' in the characteristics of products and services had a significant positive (+) effect. The impact of independent variables on dependent variables was most influenced by the competitive strength of market characteristics, followed by the number of years of industrial experience, the number of patents, the size of the market, and market growth. This was different from the results of previous studies conducted mainly on qualitative research methods, and in most previous studies, the characteristics of founders were the most important, but the empirical analysis results were market characteristics. As a sub-factor, the intensity of competition, which was the subordinate to the importance of previous studies, had the greatest influence in empirical analysis. The academic significance of this study is that it presented a specific methodology to collect and build 594 empirical samples in the absence of empirical research on accelerator investment determinants, and created an opportunity to expand the theoretical discussion of investment determinants through causal research. In practice, the information asymmetry and uncertainty of startups that accelerators have can help them make effective investment decisions by establishing a systematic model of experience-dependent investment determinants.

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A Study of Accelerator Investment Determinants Based on Business Model Innovation Framework (비즈니스 모델 혁신 프레임워크 기반의 액셀러레이터 투자결정요인 연구)

  • Jung, Mun-Su;Kim, Eun-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.65-80
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    • 2022
  • Despite the uncertainty and risky factors of startups, the special and critical role of accelerators in carrying out professional nurturing and investment for them is becoming increasingly significant in the startup social-system. However, academic research on investment determinants that have a profound impact on the survival of accelerators is lacking, and there are only a few empirical studies on the classification and importance of factors, and they do not enjoy the benefits of theoretical studies. This study proposes a business model innovation framework based on the business model innovation theory that reflects the nature and properties of startups that are investment targets of accelerators and derives 12 investment decision factors. The framework defines that the target, direction, and performable force of startup innovation are a business model, strategy, and dynamic capability. Besides, the framework analyzes the investment decision factors of the existing accelerators based on the business model innovation framework to verify the suitability and sufficiency of the composition. As a result of the analysis, first, most of the items were faithfully composed from a static point of view of business model innovation, but it was found that the factors related to the core activities to evaluate the activity and customer relationship were insufficient. Second, from the strategic point of view, the necessity of developing factors that can encompass the definition and content of core resources, which are internal strategic factors, was raised. Third, from the dynamic point of view, it was found that many of the investment determinants of accelerators were concentrated on the lower level of dynamic competencies. This can be judged as a result of reflecting the characteristics of a startup that needs to develop a solution with few resources and a small number of team members. In addition, the roles and interrelationships between each factor are not clear, thus it was found as a limiting point for startups to view and evaluate the direction and process in which startups dynamically innovate their business models. This study is considerably differentiated in that it provides a business model innovation framework and offers a theoretical basis for investment determinants by deriving the investment determinants of accelerators based on the framework and design the foundation for subsequent research. The business model innovation framework presented in this study has great implications in that it contributes to the achievement of startups, accelerators, and startup support organizations.

The Causes of Conflict and the Effect of Control Mechanisms on Conflict Resolution between Manufacturer and Supplier (제조-공급자간 갈등 원인과 거래조정 방식의 갈등관리 효과)

  • Rhee, Jin Hwa
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.55-80
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    • 2012
  • I. Introduction Developing the relationships between companies is very important issue to ensure a competitive advantage in today's business environment (Bleeke & Ernst 1991; Mohr & Spekman 1994; Powell 1990). Partnerships between companies are based on having same goals, pursuing mutual understanding, and having a professional level of interdependence. By having such a partnerships and cooperative efforts between companies, they will achieve efficiency and effectiveness of their business (Mohr and Spekman, 1994). However, it is difficult to expect these ideal results only in the B2B corporate transaction. According to agency theory which is the well-accepted theory in various fields of business strategy, organization, and marketing, the two independent companies have fundamentally different corporate purposes. Also there is a higher chance of developing opportunism and conflict due to natures of human(organization), such as self-interest, bounded rationality, risk aversion, and environment factor as imbalance of information (Eisenhardt 1989). That is, especially partnerships between principal(or buyer) and agent(or supplier) of companies within supply chain, the business contract itself will not provide competitive advantage. But managing partnership between companies is the key to success. Therefore, managing partnership between manufacturer and supplier, and finding causes of conflict are essential to improve B2B performance. In conclusion, based on prior researches and Agency theory, this study will clarify how business hazards cause conflicts on supply chain and then identify how developed conflicts have been managed by two control mechanisms. II. Research model III. Method In order to validate our research model, this study gathered questionnaires from small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs). In Korea, SMEs mean the firms whose employee is under 300 and capital is under 8 billion won(about 7.2 million dollar). We asked the manufacturer's perception about the relationship with the biggest supplier, and our key informants are denied to a person responsible for buying(ex)CEO, executives, managers of purchasing department, and so on). In detail, we contact by telephone to our initial sample(about 1,200 firms) and introduce our research motivation and send our questionnaires by e-mail, mail, and direct survey. Finally we received 361 data and eliminate 32 inappropriate questionnaires. We use 329 manufactures' data on analysis. The purpose of this study is to identify the anticipant role of business hazard (environmental dynamism, asset specificity) and investigate the moderating effect of control mechanism(formal control, social control) on conflict-performance relationship. To find out moderating effect of control methods, we need to compare the regression weight between low versus. high group(about level of exercised control methods). Therefore we choose the structural equation modeling method that is proper to do multi-group analysis. The data analysis is performed by AMOS 17.0 software, and model fits are good statically (CMIN/DF=1.982, p<.000, CFI=.936, IFI=.937, RMSEA=.056). IV. Result V. Discussion Results show that the higher environmental dynamism and asset specificity(on particular supplier) buyer(manufacturer) has, the more B2B conflict exists. And this conflict affect relationship quality and financial outcomes negatively. In addition, social control and formal control could weaken the negative effect of conflict on relationship quality significantly. However, unlikely to assure conflict resolution effect of control mechanisms on relationship quality, financial outcomes are changed by neither social control nor formal control. We could explain this results with the characteristics of our sample, SMEs(Small and Medium sized Enterprises). Financial outcomes of these SMEs(manufacturer or principal) are affected by their customer(usually major company) more easily than their supplier(or agent). And, in recent few years, most of companies have suffered from financial problems because of global economic recession. It means that it is hard to evaluate the contribution of supplier(agent). Therefore we also support the suggestion of Gladstein(1984), Poppo & Zenger(2002) that relational performance variable can capture the focal outcomes of relationship(exchange) better than financial performance variable. This study has some implications that it tests the sources of conflict and investigates the effect of resolution methods of B2B conflict empirically. And, especially, it finds out the significant moderating effect of formal control which past B2B management studies have ignored in Korea.

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The Effect of Attributes of Innovation and Perceived Risk on Product Attitudes and Intention to Adopt Smart Wear (스마트 의류의 혁신속성과 지각된 위험이 제품 태도 및 수용의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Ko, Eun-Ju;Sung, Hee-Won;Yoon, Hye-Rim
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.89-111
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    • 2008
  • Due to the development of digital technology, studies regarding smart wear integrating daily life have rapidly increased. However, consumer research about perception and attitude toward smart clothing hardly could find. The purpose of this study was to identify innovative characteristics and perceived risk of smart clothing and to analyze the influences of theses factors on product attitudes and intention to adopt. Specifically, five hypotheses were established. H1: Perceived attributes of smart clothing except for complexity would have positive relations to product attitude or purchase intention, while complexity would be opposite. H2: Product attitude would have positive relation to purchase intention. H3: Product attitude would have a mediating effect between perceived attributes and purchase intention. H4: Perceived risks of smart clothing would have negative relations to perceived attributes except for complexity, and positive relations to complexity. H5: Product attitude would have a mediating effect between perceived risks and purchase intention. A self-administered questionnaire was developed based on previous studies. After pretest, the data were collected during September, 2006, from university students in Korea who were relatively sensitive to innovative products. A total of 300 final useful questionnaire were analyzed by SPSS 13.0 program. About 60.3% were male with the mean age of 21.3 years old. About 59.3% reported that they were aware of smart clothing, but only 9 respondents purchased it. The mean of attitudes toward smart clothing and purchase intention was 2.96 (SD=.56) and 2.63 (SD=.65) respectively. Factor analysis using principal components with varimax rotation was conducted to identify perceived attribute and perceived risk dimensions. Perceived attributes of smart wear were categorized into relative advantage (including compatibility), observability (including triability), and complexity. Perceived risks were identified into physical/performance risk, social psychological risk, time loss risk, and economic risk. Regression analysis was conducted to test five hypotheses. Relative advantage and observability were significant predictors of product attitude (adj $R^2$=.223) and purchase intention (adj $R^2$=.221). Complexity showed negative influence on product attitude. Product attitude presented significant relation to purchase intention (adj $R^2$=.692) and partial mediating effect between perceived attributes and purchase intention (adj $R^2$=.698). Therefore hypothesis one to three were accepted. In order to test hypothesis four, four dimensions of perceived risk and demographic variables (age, gender, monthly household income, awareness of smart clothing, and purchase experience) were entered as independent variables in the regression models. Social psychological risk, economic risk, and gender (female) were significant to predict relative advantage (adj $R^2$=.276). When perceived observability was a dependent variable, social psychological risk, time loss risk, physical/performance risk, and age (younger) were significant in order (adj $R^2$=.144). However, physical/performance risk was positively related to observability. The more Koreans seemed to be observable of smart clothing, the more increased the probability of physical harm or performance problems received. Complexity was predicted by product awareness, social psychological risk, economic risk, and purchase experience in order (adj $R^2$=.114). Product awareness was negatively related to complexity, meaning high level of product awareness would reduce complexity of smart clothing. However, purchase experience presented positive relation with complexity. It appears that consumers can perceive high level of complexity when they are actually consuming smart clothing in real life. Risk variables were positively related with complexity. That is, in order to decrease complexity, it is also necessary to consider minimizing anxiety factors about social psychological wound or loss of money. Thus, hypothesis 4 was partially accepted. Finally, in testing hypothesis 5, social psychological risk and economic risk were significant predictors for product attitude (adj $R^2$=.122) and purchase intention (adj $R^2$=.099) respectively. When attitude variable was included with risk variables as independent variables in the regression model to predict purchase intention, only attitude variable was significant (adj $R^2$=.691). Thus attitude variable presented full mediating effect between perceived risks and purchase intention, and hypothesis 5 was accepted. Findings would provide guidelines for fashion and electronic businesses who aim to create and strengthen positive attitude toward smart clothing. Marketers need to consider not only functional feature of smart clothing, but also practical and aesthetic attributes, since appropriateness for social norm or self image would reduce uncertainty of psychological or social risk, which increase relative advantage of smart clothing. Actually social psychological risk was significantly associated to relative advantage. Economic risk is negatively associated with product attitudes as well as purchase intention, suggesting that smart-wear developers have to reflect on price ranges of potential adopters. It will be effective to utilize the findings associated with complexity when marketers in US plan communication strategy.

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The Effects of Self-Determination on Entrepreneurial Intention in Office Workers: Focusing on the Dual Mediation of Innovativeness and Prception of the Startup Support System (직장인의 자기결정성이 창업의지에 미치는 영향: 혁신성과 창업지원정책인식의 이중매개를 중심으로)

  • Lim, Jae Sung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.75-91
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    • 2024
  • Recently, global business environment is changing dramatically along with the acceleration of technological innovation amid the war, climatic change, and geopolitical instability. Accordingly, it is difficult to predict or plan for the future as the volatility, complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty of the industrial ecosystem continue to increase. Therefore, organizations are undergoing inevitable restructuring in accordance with their survival strategy, for instance, removing marginal businesses or firing. Accordingly, office workers are seeking a startup as an alternative for their continuous economic activity amid rising anxiety factors that make them think they would lose their jobs unintentionally. Here, this study is aimed to verify through what paths office workers' self-determination influences the process of converting to a startup. For this study, an online survey was carried out, and 310 respondents' valid data were analyzed through SPSS and AMOS. To sum up the results, first, office workers' self-determination did not have significant effects on entrepreneurial intention. However, it was confirmed that self-determination had positive (+) effects on innovativeness and perception of the startup support system. This result shows that their psychology works to prepare step by step by accumulating innovative experiences and increasing perception of the startup support system from a long-term life path perspective rather than challenging startups right way. Second, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. Also, perception of the startup support system had positive (+) effects on entrepreneurial intention. This implies that when considering startups, they are highly aware of the government's various startup support systems. Third, innovativeness is found to have positive (+) effects on perception of the startup support system. It is judged that perception of the startup support system is valid for prospective founders to exhibit their innovativeness and realize new ideas. Fourth, it was confirmed that innovativeness and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between self-determination and entrepreneurial intention, and perception of the startup support system mediated correlation between innovativeness and entrepreneurial intention, which shows that it is a crucial factor in entrepreneurial intention. Although previous studies related to startups deal with students mostly, this study targets office workers who form a great part in economic activities, which makes it academically valuable in terms of being differentiated from others and extending the scope of research. Also, when we consider the fact that the motivation for self-determination alone fails to stimulate entrepreneurial intention and the complete mediation of innovativeness and the startup support system, it has great implications in practical aspects such as the government's human and material support systems. In the selection and analysis of samples, this study exhibits a limitation that the problem of common method bias is not completely resolved. Also, additional definitive research is needed on whether entrepreneurial intention is formed and converted into startup behavior. Academically and practically, this study deals with the relationship between humans' psychological motives and startups which has not been handled sufficiently in previous studies. The conversion of office workers to startups is expected to have effects on individuals' economic stability and the state's job creation; therefore, it needs to be investigated continuously for its great value.

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