• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.286-286
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• 2022

홍수피해를 최소화하기 위한 수공구조물의 적정 규모 결정을 위해 사용되는 홍수빈도분석에는 통계적 분석절차에 따른 불확실성이 포함된다. 따라서 불확실성이 포함된 범주 내에서 가장 적절한 설계홍수량(design flood)를 결정하는 과정은 수공구조물의 최종단계에서 중요하게 다루어져야 하는 부분이나 이를 제시한 연구는 많지 않다. 비용-편익 분석기법을 홍수빈도분석 절차에 도입하여 구성되는 총 기대비용함수(total expected cost function)는 설계홍수량 중 최적 설계홍수량(optimal design flood)를 결정하기 위한 새로운 접근방식이다. 이 절차는 UNCODE(UNcertainty COmpliant DEsign)로 명명되어 사용된 바 있으나, 국내에서는 아직 적용 결과가 소개되지 않고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 UNCODE의 수학적 구성 절차를 소개함과 함께 북한강수계에 위치한 수력발전댐(화천댐, 춘천댐, 의암댐, 청평댐)의 년최대유입량을 사용하여 최적 설계홍수량을 산정하고 이 결과를 기존 홍수빈도분석 결과와 비교하였다. 불확실성이 고려된 총 기대비용함수로부터 확률분포함수들(Gumbel 및 GEV)의 모수를 추출하는 과정에서 Metropolis-Hastings 알고리즘을 사용하여 불확실성의 범위를 추정하였으며, 비용-편익 분석기법에 사용되는 비용 및 피해함수는 수학적 구성의 편의성을 위하여 1차 선형함수로 가정되었다. 4개의 발전용댐, 2개의 확률분포 및 2개의 재현기간에 대하여 최적 설계홍수량의 중앙값이 기존 홍수빈도분석 절차에 의해 산정된 설계홍수량보다 일정 정도 큰 값으로 산정됨을 알 수 있었다. 향후에는 본 연구에서 적용된 절차를 간단한 수식형태로 함수화하여 발전용댐 운영의 실무업무나 하천기본계획의 수립 등에 있어 비용-편익분석 기법의 적용성을 높이기 위한 연구가 진행될 필요가 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.58-58
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• 2022

본 연구는 수분최대화방법(Moisture-maximizing method)를 기반으로 PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation)을 산정하는 방법론을 평가하는 것을 목적으로 수행되었다. 수분최대화 방법은 특정 호우사상의 대기 수분 조건을 극대화하여 PMP 를 산정한다. 여기서, 대기 수분 조건은 대기 표면부터 상층부의 총 수분량으로부터 얻어지는 가강수량(Precipitable water, PW)으로 표현된다. PW 는 라디오존데로부터 직접 관측 및 수집되지만, 장기간 수집이 어렵고, 수집된 자료는 다수의 이상치 및 결측치를 포함한다. 이에 따라, WMO(World Meteorological Organization)에서는 표면 이슬점을 이용하여 위단열 가정(Pseudo-adiabatic assumption)하에PW 를 간접적으로 산정하는 방법론을 기반한 PMP 산정을 권고한다. 본 연구는 일본의 다수의 지역을 대상으로 실제 PW 를 이용하는 방법과 표면 이슬점을 이용하는 방법을 기반으로 산정된 수분최대화방법의 변수들의 편차를 분석하였다. 그 결과, 따듯한 기후 특성을 나타내는 일본의 남부지역은 두 방법의 편차가 매우 작았지만, 추운 기후 특성을 나타내는 일본의 북부지역은 표면 이슬점으로 산정된 PW 가 실제 PW 에 비해 과소 산정되어 PMP 를 과대 산정시켰다. 특히, 이불확실성은 호우 발생 시 표면 이슬점이 18℃ 이하일 때, 두드러지게 나타났다. 본 연구는 이불확실성을 밝히기 위해 실제 라디오존데로부터 관측된 대기 상층부의 대기 프로파일 검토하였다. 그 결과, 표면에서 가까운 대기 상층부의 위치에서 불규칙적으로 이슬점이 증가하는 패턴을 나타냈지만, 위단열 가정은 이를 묘사하기 어려웠다. 이는 결국 실제 PW 에 비해 이슬점을 이용하여 산정된 PW 가 과소 산정되는 결과로 이어졌다. 결과적으로, 호우 발생 시 표면 이슬점이 18℃ 이하로 낮은 지역에서 산정된 PW 를 적용하는 수분최대화방법으로 산정된 PMP 는 낮은 신뢰도를 나타낸다.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.417-444
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• 2009

In October 2005, the Russian government started an investigation if safeguard measures against the importation of Korean sodium cyanide products could be taken. With Russia being a non-WTO member country, the Korean side found themselves in different situation from previous negotiation cases with developed or WTO member countries. Although several elements of trade negotiation theories such as goal setting, bargaining power, and relationship could apply, new constraints of limited information access and uncertainty of administrative procedures should be overcome. Combination of the governmental negotiation, assistance of the Russian consumer group, and the application of related laws led the Russian authority to dismiss the case. I suggest that there be some built-in channels for gathering information of non-WTO member countries.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.129-147
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• 2022

The properties of soil are naturally highly variable and thus, to ensure proper safety and reliability, we need to test a large number of samples across the length and depth. In pile foundations, conducting field tests are highly expensive and the traditional empirical relations too have been proven to be poor in performance. The study proposes a state-of-art Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) hybridized Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS); and comparative analysis of metaheuristic models (ANN-PSO, ELM-PSO, ANFIS-PSO) for prediction of bearing capacity of pile foundation trained and tested on dataset of nearly 300 dynamic pile tests from the literature. A novel ensemble model of three hybrid models is constructed to combine and enhance the predictions of the individual models effectively. The authenticity of the dataset is confirmed using descriptive statistics, correlation matrix and sensitivity analysis. Ram weight and diameter of pile are found to be most influential input parameter. The comparative analysis reveals that ANFIS-PSO is the best performing model in testing phase (R² = 0.85, RMSE = 0.01) while ELM-PSO performs best in training phase (R² = 0.88, RMSE = 0.08); while the ensemble provided overall best performance based on the rank score. The performance of ANN-PSO is least satisfactory compared to the other two models. The findings were confirmed using Taylor diagram, error matrix and uncertainty analysis. Based on the results ELM-PSO and ANFIS-PSO is proposed to be used for the prediction of bearing capacity of piles and ensemble learning method of joining the outputs of individual models should be encouraged. The study possesses the potential to assist geotechnical engineers in the design phase of civil engineering projects.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.237-242
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• 2019

Ammonia is main precursor gas of secondary particulate matter and contributes almost 78% of total ammonia emission from the agricultural sector in Korea. The current method of estimating ammonia emission from fertilizer application, which contributes 7% of the total emission, has high uncertainty and needs to be improved to better predict PM2.5 concentration. In this study, we suggest an improvement method for ammonia emission quantification from fertilizer application. The first improvement was in the emission factor of NPK fertilizer by conducting a field study to verify the currently used factor. The improved NPK emission factor of 52.2 kg NH ton-1N was confirmed by comparing with the value from the EEA (European Environment Agency) and adjusting the value for the Korean climate and soil conditions. We also improved the amount of fertilizer usage by including the sales amount to the fertilizer supply amount of the Korean Farmers Association, increasing total fertilizer usage by 39.8%. As the statistical data on fertilizer supply and sales are compiled yearly, we estimated monthly emission of ammonia by considering cultivated areas and timing of fertilization for each crop. In summary, we suggest a novel and practical method to improve estimation methodology of ammonia emission from the field of fertilizer application: 1) emission factor of NPK fertilizer was reconfirmed; 2) total amount of fertilizer use was revised considering fertilizer sales; and 3) monthly emission of ammonia was realized by considering different crop practices. A bottom-up approach to compile activity data is needed to increase the estimation accuracy of monthly emission of ammonia, which is very helpful for predicting PM2.5 concentration.

• Progress in Superconductivity and Cryogenics
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.5-9
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• 2023

Lee, Kim, et al. reported in July 2023 that a modified lead apatite material, Pb_10-xCu_x(PO₄)₆O (0.9 < x < 1.1), exhibited superconductivity at room temperature and atmospheric pressure [1, 2]. However, their X-ray diffraction data clearly showed the presence of impurity phases, including Cu₂S, raising uncertainty about the sample quality. Subsequent studies have been conducted; however, different samples exhibited various physical properties. To verify the recipe for the sample growth process, we synthesized samples following the methodology outlined in the reference [1, 2]. An analysis of the structure and physical properties of the synthesized sample reaffirms the critical importance of high-quality sample growth.

• Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.375-401
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• 2023

A school library is where students develop their skills to cope with future uncertainty and can utilize various information materials to build their capability and response abilities to changes. Teachers' perception is crucial as their guidance is essential for the student to use the school library. Most studies, however, focused on quantitative measurement of the importance of the teachers' perception as an external environment, and there is a lack of specific categorization of different types of perceptions on the role of the school library. This study aims to examine types of perceptions about the school library among elementary school teachers. To do so, this study used Latent Profile Analysis (LPA), a person-centered approach, to identify teachers' complex perceptions about the role and importance of the school library, which were difficult to review in previous studies, and the teachers' most representative types of perceptions. Based on the findings from the above, this study is meaningful in proposing customized measures to operate and promote the school library depending on teachers' perceptions.

• The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.720-737
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• 2023

This study aims to merge Picasso's expressive elements and deconstructive fashion's formative traits, proposing an upcycle fashion design that fuses artistic and philoso-phical aspects. The analysis of Picasso's Cubism identified qualities like liberating revolution, fluidity of vision, geometric reducibility, complex symbolism, and creative imitation. The analysis of Derrida's deconstructionism revealed expressive traits: uncertainty, intertextuality, différance, and dis-de phenomenon. An upscale fashion design was developed based on six Picasso works featuring women. The design was created using the fashion design software CLO 3D and integrated clothing waste and scrap fabrics as materials.The results are as follows. First, upcycle fashion was viewed from a new perspective based on Picasso and Derrida's values. This perspective suggested creating better ethical values by upholding environmental protection in novel ways that overcome limitations rather than destroy existing values indiscriminately. Second, upcycle fashion design methodologies were derived from various perspectives utilizing formative features of Picasso's works and specific expressive features of deconstructed fashion. Third, the direction of mitigating waste and pollution from clothing production and transportation was revealed by making clothes in a virtual space using the CLO 3D program. This study contributed to obtaining various methods for developing upcycle fashion designs using own methods of Picasso and Derrida to diversify the approaches of upcycling, which is relatively stagnant in disassembling.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.215-231
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• 2022

Analysis and forecasting of the Baltic Capsize Index (BCI) is important for managing an entity's losses and risks from the uncertainty and volatility of the fast-changing maritime transport market in the future. This study conducted volatility transition analysis through the GARCH model, using BCI which is highly related to steel raw materials. As for the data, 2,385 monthly data were used from March 1999 to March 2021. In this study, after basic statistical analysis, unit root and cointegration test, the GARCH, EGARCH, and DCC-GARCH models were used for volatility transition analysis. As the results of GARCH and EGARCH model, we confirmed that all variables had no autocorrelation between the standardized residuals for error terms and the square of residuals, that the variability of all variables at this time was likely to persist in the future, and that the variability of the time-series error term impact according to Iron ore trade (IoT). In addition, through the EGARCH model, the magnitude convenience of all variables except the Iron ore price (IOP) and Capesize bulk fleet (BCF) variables was greater than the positive value (+). As a result of analyzing the DCC-GARCH (1,1) model, partial linear combinations were confirmed over the entire period. Estimating the effect of variability transition on BCF and C5 with statistically significant linear combinations with BCI confirmed that the impact of BCF on BCI was greater than the impact of BCI itself.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.189-204
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• 2021

The fourth industrial revolution is affecting the industry as a whole, and the current logistics industry is coexisting with crises and opportunities. As part of overcoming this situation, the online platformization of the logistics market has recently been rapidly taking place, and the growth of e-commerce around developed countries has emerged as a demand for flexible freight services that can send and receive cargo anywhere and anytime at appropriate cost. However, the logistics industry has not been able to change rapidly in line with the demands of the market as it is immersed in traditional transportation transactions. Thus, the digital transformation of the freight market has become urgent to address problems such as uncertainty over traditionally closed and conservative freight market transaction processes and the lack of reliability caused by information asymmetry. Therefore, innovative domestic and foreign companies are attempting to establish a new way of transporting cargo, especially a marketplace way of connecting suppliers and consumers. Current status analysis and case studies were conducted through existing literature surveys, and prior research on freight market place selection factors was previewed, and the selection factors were stratified into five upper and 19 lower factors. Through this study, it is expected that improvements for sustainable growth of freight marketplace companies will be derived and that it will be a basic study of establishing management strategies through marketplace operation and quality control. In addition, it is deemed that the priority of customer requirements can be actively accepted, providing an opportunity to actively respond and strengthen corporate competitiveness.