• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.15 no.26
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• pp.111-117
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• 1992

In the stock marketing. investor needs speedy and accurate decision making for the investment. A stock exchange index provides the important index of the early of 1993 in Korea using Fuzzy Delphi Method(F. D. M) which is widely used to a mid and long range forecasting in decision making problem. In the Fuzzy Delphi method, considerably qualified experts an first requested to give their opinion seperately and without intercommunication. The forecasting data of experts consist of Triangular Fuzzy Number (T.F.N) which represents the pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic forecast of a stock exchange index. A statistical analysis and dissemblance index are then made of these subject data. These new information are then transmitted to the experts once again, and the process of reestimation is continued until the process converges to a reasonable stable forecast of stock exchange index. The goal of this research is to forecast the stock exchange index using F.D.M. in which subjective data of experts are transformed into quasi -objective data index by some statistical analysis and fuzzy operations. (a) A long range forecasting problem must be considered as an uncertain but not random problem. The direct use of fuzzy numbers and fuzzy methods seems to be more compatible and well suited. (b) The experts use their individual competency and subjectivity and this is the very reason why we propose the use of fuzzy concepts. (c) If you ask an expert the following question: Consider the forecasting of the price index of stocks in the near future. This experts wi11 certainly be more comfortable giving an answer to this question using three types of values: the maximum value, the proper value, and the minimum value rather than an answer in terms of the probability.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.917-926
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• 2013

This study presents the feasibility of fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for the robust prioritization of projects. It is applied to water resources planning problem. Results from weighted sum method (WSM), analytic hierarchy process (AHP), revised analytic hierarchy process (R-AHP), and TOPSIS are compared with those from Fuzzy WSM, Fuzzy, AHP, Fuzzy R-AHP, and Fuzzy TOPSIS. For the calculation, all weights on criteria and the normalized data were obtained from the same investigation. As a result, the rankings from four MCDM techniques are slightly different while those from fuzzy MCDM show the comparatively consistent ranking. Therefore, it is desirable to use fuzzy MCDM technique when MCDM is used for the prioritization problem, since fuzzy MCDM can include the uncertain variability of input data and weighting values on criteria.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.381-396
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• 2010

It is essential to consider strategies, spatial planning, and reflection of sustainability for the creation of sound urban spaces. To this end, there is a need for plans that can secure better sustainability through strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of plans. This study examined the literature and available precedent to develop a SEA model for administrative plans for urban development including metropolitan plans, urban master plans and urban management plans. In the course of development of the model, environmental issues associated with the urban plans were analyzed by classifying them into ten categories, including "spatial planning," "conservation planning," "greenbelt systems," "habitats." and etc. according to their rank. Furthermore, those issues were reflected on the development of environmental evaluation indices for the plans. Overall and detailed environmental indices that can be applied to the administrative plans for urban development including metropolitan plans, urban master plans and urban management plans were devised for five stages: (1) Establishment of development goals and strategy, (2) Analysis of current status and characteristics, (3) Conceptualization of spatial structure, (4) Planning for each department, and (5) Execution and management. Sub plans are more detailed and concrete. Criteria based on the evaluation indices, when performing evaluations on plans based on each environmental assessment index in reference to experts and the literature, were used to forecast their effects, i.e. whether they had a positive, negative, or no effect or relationship, or whether their effects was uncertain. Based on the forecasts, this study then presents means to establish more improvable plans. Furthermore, by synthesis of the effects according to each index and integration of the process, plans were analyzed overall. This study reflects the characteristics of the present time period based on issues in the SEA process and techniques in upper level administrative plans being newly established, and presents them according to the stage of each plan. Furthermore, by forecasting the effect of plans by stage, this study presents proposals for improvement, and in this aspect, can be meaningful in promoting plan improvements through SEA.

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.305-312
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• 2010

The aim of this study is to find an analytic solution to the problem of determining the optimal capacity of a batch-storage network to meet demand for finished products in a system undergoing joint random variations of operating time and batch material loss. The superstructure of the plant considered here consists of a network of serially and/or parallel interlinked batch processes and storage units. The production processes transform a set of feedstock materials into another set of products with constant conversion factors. The final product demand flow is susceptible to joint random variations in the cycle time and batch size. The production processes have also joint random variations in cycle time and product quantity. The spoiled materials are treated through regeneration or waste disposal processes. The objective function of the optimization is minimizing the total cost, which is composed of setup and inventory holding costs as well as the capital costs of constructing processes and storage units. A novel production and inventory analysis the PSW (Periodic Square Wave) model, provides a judicious graphical method to find the upper and lower bounds of random flows. The advantage of this model is that it provides a set of simple analytic solutions while also maintaining a realistic description of the random material flows between processes and storage units; as a consequence of these analytic solutions, the computation burden is significantly reduced. The proposed method has the potential to rapidly provide very useful data on which to base investment decisions during the early plant design stage. It should be of particular use when these decisions must be made in a highly uncertain business environment.

• Magazine of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.145-151
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• 1997

In concrete mix design we need the informations of the codes, the specifications, and the experiences of experts. However we can't consider all factors regarding concrete mix design. The final acceptance depends on concrete quality control test results. In this process we meet the uncertainties of materials. temperature, site environmental situations, personal skillfulness. and errors in calculations and testing process. Then the mix design adjustments must be made. Concrete mix design and adjustments arc somewhat complicated, time-consuming. and uncertain tasks. In this paper, as a tool to minimize the uncertainties and errors the neural network is applied to the concrete mix design. Input data to train and test the neural network are obtained numerically from the results of design following the concrete standard specifications of Korea. The 28-days compressive strengths which are variate according to the uncertainties and errors are considered. The results show that neural networks have a strong potential as a tool for concrete mix design.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.87-96
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• 2007

Recently construction environment is being professionalized. oversized and diversified. Due to fluctuation of construction environment, the demand for the project of steel structure is ieased gradually and steel construction is needed the efficient quality management. The construction of steel structure which required a variety of sub-contractors, the progress of works and technologies are comprehensive of various risks and uncertain factors. But currently the construction of steel structure is conducted the risk management by perception and experience of constructors. Therefore, the analyzing factors of the risk and establishing the device are able to manage the quality management efficiently. In this study, we have conducted the interview of experts, polls and through the Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP) for the scientific and systematic risk management. This paper will propose a plan for systematization of the construction of the steel structure.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.318-335
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• 2003

Expert judgment is frequently employed in the search for the solution to various engineering and decision-making problems where relevant data is not sufficient or where there is little consensus as to the correct models to apply. When expert judgments are required to solve the underlying problem, our main concern is how to formally derive their technical expertise and their personal degree of familiarity about the related questions. Formal methods for gathering judgments from experts and assessing the effects of the judgments on the results of the analysis have been developed in a variety of ways. The most important interest of such methods is to establish the robustness of an expert's knowledge upon which the elicitation of judgments is made and an effective trace of the elicitation process as possible as one can. While the resultant expert judgments can remain to a large extent substantiated with formal elicitation methods, their applicability however is often limited due to restriction of available resources (e.g., time, budget, and number of qualified experts, etc) as well as a scope of the analysis. For this reason, many engineering and decision-making problems have not always performed with a formal/structured pattern, but rather relied on a pertinent transition of the formal process to the simplified approach. The purpose of this paper is (a) to address some insights into the balanced use of formally structured and simplified approaches for the explicit use of expert judgments under resource constraints and (b) to discuss related decision-theoretic issues.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.117-128
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• 2024

In this paper, we propose a process for deriving priority tasks using the legal design technique in a situation where there is high uncertainty in the market and legal system regarding the commercialization of security tokens based on blockchain and distributed ledger technology. To issue and distribute securities tokens, we conducted a legal design workshop with participants who applied for innovative financial services (financial regulatory sandbox). During the workshop, participants harmonized their interests and deliberated on readiness, considering both legal and technical factors. The aim was to ascertain the feasibility of identifying prioritized objectives for future endeavors. The legal design technique facilitates consensus-building among stakeholders in an uncertain environment by confirming and adjusting differing perspectives and disagreements based on mutual understanding. The key stages include the empathetic process called "Family Therapy," the "N whys" for problem definition, and the speculative scenario design for problem-solving. This approach distinguishes itself from user-centered design thinking. Given the diverse stakeholders involved, effective facilitation by the facilitator is crucial during the legal design workshop preparation and execution.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.73-80
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• 2010

The optimal design of water distribution system have started with the least cost design of single objective function using fixed hydraulic variables, eg. fixed water demand and pipe roughness. However, more adequate design is accomplished with considering uncertainties laid on water distribution system such as uncertain future water demands, resulting in successful estimation of real network's behaviors. So, many researchers have suggested a variety of approaches to consider uncertainties in water distribution system using uncertainties quantification methods and the optimal design of multi-objective function is also studied. This paper suggests the new approach of a multi-objective optimization seeking the minimum cost and maximum robustness of the network based on two uncertain variables, nodal demands and pipe roughness uncertainties. Total design procedure consists of two folds: least cost design and final optimal design under uncertainties. The uncertainties of demands and roughness are considered with Latin Hypercube sampling technique with beta probability density functions and multi-objective genetic algorithms (MOGA) is used for the optimization process. The suggested approach is tested in a case study of real network named the New York Tunnels and the applicability of new approach is checked. As the computation time passes, we can check that initial populations, one solution of solutions of multi-objective genetic algorithm, spread to lower right section on the solution space and yield Pareto Optimum solutions building Pareto Front.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.8 no.6
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• pp.97-105
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• 2022

This study deals with the credibility of citizens when investing in uncertain project companies, as well as the Social Performance Compensation Project (SIB) and the IT sharing economy. This allows the convergence of the three sectors to address investment inequalities in economic effectiveness and social security. Activates the model of the overall Social Impact Bond (SIB) process that successfully activates the exchange of information. The empirical presentation of the operations and techniques for social IT service finance examines how the innovation ecosystem can be created with social performance and reward projects. The analysis shows that small sharing institutions or citizens can participate directly to create the ability to connect with private investors, identify the possibility of recognizing non-shared barriers to participation, and show the great impact of citizen trust in IT sharing projects in uncertain areas. As a result, for the sake of social sharing and IT cooperation promoted by the City of Seoul, before the project has the ability to design directly, it will be responsible for reliability and safety in the planning of the project. Therefore, non-shared citizens can also participate in the platform that has been effectively constructed and created.