• 제목/요약/키워드: Uncertain Plant

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Development of System Dynamics model for Electric Power Plant Construction in a Competitive Market (경쟁체제 하에서의 발전소 건설 시스템 다이내믹스 모델 개발)

  • 안남성
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.25-40
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    • 2001
  • This paper describes the forecast of power plant construction in a competitive korean electricity market. In Korea, KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation, fully controlled by government) was responsible for from the production of the electricity to the sale of electricity to customer. However, the generation part is separated from KEPCO and six generation companies were established for whole sale competition from April 1st, 2001. The generation companies consist of five fossil power companies and one nuclear power company in Korea at present time. Fossil power companies are scheduled to be sold to private companies including foreign investors. Nuclear power company is owned and controlled by government. The competition in generation market will start from 2003. ISO (Independence System Operator will purchase the electricity from the power exchange market. The market price is determined by the SMP(System Marginal Price) which is decided by the balance between demand and supply of electricity in power exchange market. Under this uncertain circumstance, the energy policy planners such as government are interested to the construction of the power plant in the future. These interests are accelerated due to the recent shortage of electricity supply in California. In the competitive market, investors are no longer interested in the investment for the capital intensive, long lead time generating technologies such as nuclear and coal plants. Large unclear and coal plants were no longer the top choices. Instead, investors in the competitive market are interested in smaller, more efficient, cheaper, cleaner technologies such as CCGT(Combined Cycle Gas Turbine). Electricity is treated as commodity in the competitive market. The investors behavior in the commodity market shows that the new investment decision is made when the market price exceeds the sum of capital cost and variable cost of the new facility and the existing facility utilization depends on the marginal cost of the facility. This investors behavior can be applied to the new investments for the power plant. Under these postulations, there is the potential for power plant construction to appear in waves causing alternating periods of over and under supply of electricity like commodity production or real estate production. A computer model was developed to sturdy the possibility that construction will appear in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market. This model was constructed using System Dynamics method pioneered by Forrester(MIT, 1961) and explained in recent text by Sternman (Business Dynamics, MIT, 2000) and the recent work by Andrew Ford(Energy Policy, 1999). This model was designed based on the Energy Policy results(Ford, 1999) with parameters for loads and resources in Korea. This Korea Market Model was developed and tested in a small scale project to demonstrate the usefulness of the System Dynamics approach. Korea electricity market is isolated and not allowed to import electricity from outsides. In this model, the base load such as unclear and large coal power plant are assumed to be user specified investment and only CCGT is selected for new investment by investors in the market. This model may be used to learn if government investment in new unclear plants could compensate for the unstable actions of private developers. This model can be used to test the policy focused on the role of unclear investments over time. This model also can be used to test whether the future power plant construction can meet the government targets for the mix of generating resources and to test whether to maintain stable price in the spot market.

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OPTIMAL DESIGN OF BATCH-STORAGE NETWORK APPLICABLE TO SUPPLY CHAIN

  • Yi, Gyeong-beom;Lee, Euy-Soo;Lee, In-Beom
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2004.08a
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    • pp.1859-1864
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    • 2004
  • An effective methodology is reported for the optimal design of multisite batch production/transportation and storage networks under uncertain demand forecasting. We assume that any given storage unit can store one material type which can be purchased from suppliers, internally produced, internally consumed, transported to or from other plant sites and/or sold to customers. We further assume that a storage unit is connected to all processing and transportation stages that consume/produce or move the material to which that storage unit is dedicated. Each processing stage transforms a set of feedstock materials or intermediates into a set of products with constant conversion factors. A batch transportation process can transfer one material or multiple materials at once between plant sites. The objective for optimization is to minimize the probability averaged total cost composed of raw material procurement, processing setup, transportation setup and inventory holding costs as well as the capital costs of processing stages and storage units. A novel production and inventory analysis formulation, the PSW(Periodic Square Wave) model, provides useful expressions for the upper/lower bounds and average level of the storage inventory. The expressions for the Kuhn-Tucker conditions of the optimization problem can be reduced to two sub-problems. The first yields analytical solutions for determining lot sizes while the second is a separable concave minimization network flow subproblem whose solution yields the average material flow rates through the networks for the given demand forecast scenario. The result of this study will contribute to the optimal design and operation of large-scale supply chain system.

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Application of a Fuzzy Controller with a Self-Learning Structure (자기 학습 구조를 가진 퍼지 제어기의 응용)

  • 서영노;장진현
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.1182-1189
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    • 1994
  • In this paper, we evaluate the performance of a fuzzy controller with a self-learning structure. The fuzzy controller is based on a fuzzy logic that approximates and effectively represents the uncertain phenomena of the real world. The fuzzy controller has control of a plant with a fuzzy inference logic. However, it is not easy to decide the membership function of a fuzzy controller and its controlrule. This problem can be solved by designing a self-learning controller that improves its own contropllaw to its goal with a performance table. The fuzzy controller is implemented with a 386PC, an interface board, a D/A converter, a PWM(Pulse Width Modulation) motor drive-circuit, and a sensing circuit, for error and differential of error. Since a Ball and Beam System is used in the experiment, the validity of the fuzzy controller with the self-learning structure can be evaluated through the actual experiment and the computer simulation of the real plant. The self-learning fuzzy controller reduces settling time by just under 10%.

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A Suggestion of Penalty Cost Appropriation Methodology for Performance Acceptance Test of CGAM Cogeneration - Part I (CGAM 열병합발전의 인수성능에 대한 페널티 비용 책정 방법론 제안 - Part I)

  • Kim, Deok-Jin
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.36-40
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    • 2016
  • At the contract for power plant construction, the penalty appropriation on performance decrease is signed between ordering organization and construction firm. In this, the penalty cost signed must be reasonable value that both of ordering organization and construction firm can accept, therefore the methodology for penalty appropriation is very important. Cogeneration is a system that produces electricity and heat at the same time, therefore the penalty appropriation for cogeneration should be uncertain. Thermoeconomics analyzes various energy costs, however the relation of thermoeconomics and penalty cost may not be analyzed up to now. The aim of this study demonstrates that thermoeconomics can be applied to the penalty appropriation at the performance acceptance test. As the result of CGAM system, if the construction cost is $10,000,000, the value of $6,665,688 was appropriated to the electricity production performance and the value of $3,334,312 was appropriated to the heat production performance. Therefore if one percentage at the electricity production performance decreases, the penalty is $6,666, and one percentage at the heat production performance decrease, we can understand that the penalty is $3,334.

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Molecular phylogenetic relationship of the family Colchicaceae (Liliales)

  • Thi, Nguyen Pham Anh;Kim, Jung-Sung;Kim, Joo-Hwan
    • Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.19-19
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    • 2012
  • The Colchicaceae comprising 250 species and 15-19 genera of rhizomatous or cormous perennials, the moderate sized family in Liliales, distributes widely through the temperate and tropical areas of Africa, Asia and North America. The division of two subfamilies in Colchicaceae is still unclear because of different results in previous studies. Moreover, sister taxa of this family has not been determined. In genus level, it was uncertain that whether expand circumscription of three genera of Colchicum, Gloriosa, and Wurmbea which are include Androcymbium, Littonia and Onixotis, respectively, is reasonable or not. In this study, three coding genes of atpB, matK and rbcL were analyzed to reconstruct phylogenetic relationship of Colchicaceae and both of maximum parsimony (MP) and Bayesian analysis were conducted. Among three genes, matK region was most variable and provided more parsimony-informative sites, whereas the atpB and rbcL regions were similar in the variation and number of informative characters. Monophyly of Colchicaceae was strongly supported and it was divided into two subfamilies (Wurmbeoideae and Uvulariodeae). Uvularia-Disporum clade, comprises the subfamily Uvularioideae, is a sister of the rest Colchicaceae and subsequently differentiated Burchardia was a sister within subfamily Wurmbeoideae. Burchadia was used to be supposed to be a sister of the family in the previous studies. It was clear the monophyly and phylogenetic relationship among six tribes sensu Vinnersten and Manning (2007) within the family. In addition, the expanded circumscription of three genera was also strongly supported; Colchicum-Androcymbium (BP99), Wurmbea-Onixotis (BP100), and Littonia-Gloriosa (BP100). Here, we propose a re-circumscription among taxa of Colchicaceae.

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Optimal Design of Process-Inventory Network under Cycle Time and Batch Quantity Uncertainties (이중 불확실성하의 공정-저장조 망구조 최적설계)

  • Suh, Kuen-Hack;Yi, Gyeong-Beom
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.305-312
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    • 2010
  • The aim of this study is to find an analytic solution to the problem of determining the optimal capacity of a batch-storage network to meet demand for finished products in a system undergoing joint random variations of operating time and batch material loss. The superstructure of the plant considered here consists of a network of serially and/or parallel interlinked batch processes and storage units. The production processes transform a set of feedstock materials into another set of products with constant conversion factors. The final product demand flow is susceptible to joint random variations in the cycle time and batch size. The production processes have also joint random variations in cycle time and product quantity. The spoiled materials are treated through regeneration or waste disposal processes. The objective function of the optimization is minimizing the total cost, which is composed of setup and inventory holding costs as well as the capital costs of constructing processes and storage units. A novel production and inventory analysis the PSW (Periodic Square Wave) model, provides a judicious graphical method to find the upper and lower bounds of random flows. The advantage of this model is that it provides a set of simple analytic solutions while also maintaining a realistic description of the random material flows between processes and storage units; as a consequence of these analytic solutions, the computation burden is significantly reduced. The proposed method has the potential to rapidly provide very useful data on which to base investment decisions during the early plant design stage. It should be of particular use when these decisions must be made in a highly uncertain business environment.

Relationship Between Biological Activity and Structure of Alantolactone (Alantolactone의 구조와 생물학적 활성)

  • 권영명
    • Journal of Plant Biology
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 1974
  • To elucidate the relationship between chemical structure and biological activity of alantolactone, and also to investigate the relationship between the growth of cells and the respiration of Chlorella pyrenoidosa affected by alantolactone, alantolactone and isoalantolactone were isolated from Inula helenium L., and di-, and tetrahydroalantolactones were prepared by the hydrogenation. At a concentration of 5$\times$10-5M alantolactone, the growth rate of Chlorella was greatly reduced. The viability of cells was also reduced over 50% within 2 hr at a concentration of 2.5$\times$10-4M alantolactone. However, oxygen uptake was increased by 20% over 3 hr. And 14CO2 production from glucose-1-14C, glucose-6-14C and 14C-acetate-U.L. was also increased by alantolactone. Biological activityof alantolactone was significantly reduced by cysteine, reduced glutathione or cystine but not by tryptophan or histidine. It was detected by spectrophotometrically and by TLC that alantolactone was also reacted with thiols except cystine. The solution of alantolactone reached with thiol gave the UV absorption spectrum of $\alpha$-saturated ${\gamma}$-lactone, and most of SH groups were disappeared by the addition reaction. From the reaction mixture of alantolactone and cysteine, a lactone adduct was isolated and purified. Isoalantolactone had shown similar activity as alantolactone, however, it was appeared that di-, and tetrahydroalantolactones were not only inactive biologically but also in vitro. It was concluded that there was no correlationship between increased respiration rate and mortality of Chlorella. During the respiration TCA cycle was activated, however it was uncertain that the activation of EMP or HMP was also appeared. Alantolactone and isoalantolactone were biologically active compounds but others were inactive. The reactivity of $\alpha$-methylene ${\gamma}$-lactone moiety toward SH group was principally responsible for its biological activity in sesquiterpene lactones.

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Design of Output Regulator for Rejecting Periodic Eccentricity Disturbance in Optical Disc Drive

  • Shim, Hyung-Bo;Kim, Hyung-Jong;Chung, Chung-Choo
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.452-457
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    • 2003
  • An add-on type output regulator is proposed in this paper. By an add-on controller we mean an additional controller which operates harmonically with a pre-designed one. The role of the add-on controller is to reject a sinusoidal disturbance of unknown magnitude and phase but with known frequency. Advantages of the proposed controller include that (1) it can be used only when the performance of disturbance rejection needs to be enhanced, (2) when it is turned on or off, unwanted transient can be avoided (i.e., bumpless transfer), (3) it is designed for perfect disturbance rejection not just for disturbance reduction, (4) ability for perfect rejection is preserved even with uncertain plant model. This design may be promising for optical disc drive (ODD) systems in which disc eccentricity results in a sinusoidal disturbance. For ODD systems, the sensitivity function obtained by the pre-designed controller, which may have been designed by the lead-lag, $H_{\infty}$, or DOB (disturbance observer) technique, does not change much with the add-on controller except at the frequency of the disturbance. Since the add-on controller does the job of rejecting major eccentricity disturbance, the gain of the pre-designed controller does not have to be too high.

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A Direct Adaptive Fuzzy Control of Nonlinear Systems with Application to Robot Manipulator Tracking Control

  • Cho, Young-Wan;Seo, Ki-Sung;Lee, Hee-Jin
    • International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.630-642
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    • 2007
  • In this paper, we propose a direct model reference adaptive fuzzy control (MRAFC) for MIMO nonlinear systems whose structure is represented by the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model. The adaptive law of the MRAFC estimates the approximation error of the fuzzy logic system so that it provides asymptotic tracking of the reference signal for the systems with uncertain or slowly time-varying parameters. The developed control law and adaptive law guarantee the boundedness of all signals in the closed-loop system. In addition, the plant state tracks the state of the reference model asymptotically with time for any bounded reference input signal. To verify the validity and effectiveness of the MRAFC scheme, the suggested analysis and design techniques are applied to the tracking control of robot manipulator and simulation studies are carried out. In the control design, the MRAFC is combined with feedforward PD control to make the actual joint trajectories of the robot manipulator with system uncertainties track the desired reference joint position trajectories asymptotically stably.

A Study on Human Error Countermeasures considering Hazardous Situational Context among Organizational Factors in NPP (원전에서 조직 위험요소의 상황적 맥락을 고려한 인적오류 관리방안 제고)

  • Luo, Meiling;Kim, Sa-Kil;Lee, Yong-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 2015
  • Most incidents and accidents involved human during operating NPPs have a tendency to be structured by complicated and various organizational, individual, and environmental factors. The salient feature of the human error in NPP was extremely low frequency, extremely high complicated and extremely serious damage of human life and property. Our research team defined as 'rare human errors'. To prevent the rare human errors, the most researchers and analysts insist invariably that the root causes be made clear. The making them clear, however, is difficult because their root causes are very various and uncertain. However, These tools have limits that they do not adapt all operating situations and circumstances such as design base events. The purpose of this study is to improve the rare human error hazards consider the situational contex. Through this challenging try based on evidences to the human errors could be useful to prevent rare and critical events can occur in the future.