• Title/Summary/Keyword: Uncertain Information

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Applications of Fuzzy Theory on The Location Decision of Logistics Facilities (퍼지이론을 이용한 물류단지 입지 및 규모결정에 관한 연구)

  • 이승재;정창무;이헌주
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.75-85
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    • 2000
  • In existing models in optimization, the crisp data improve has been used in the objective or constraints to derive the optimal solution, Besides, the subjective environments are eliminated because the complex and uncertain circumstances were regarded as Probable ambiguity, In other words those optimal solutions in the existing models could be the complete satisfactory solutions to the objective functions in the Process of application for industrial engineering methods to minimize risks of decision-making. As a result of those, decision-makers in location Problems couldn't face appropriately with the variation of demand as well as other variables and couldn't Provide the chance of wide selection because of the insufficient information. So under the circumstance. it has been to develop the model for the location and size decision problems of logistics facility in the use of the fuzzy theory in the intention of making the most reasonable decision in the Point of subjective view under ambiguous circumstances, in the foundation of the existing decision-making problems which must satisfy the constraints to optimize the objective function in strictly given conditions in this study. Introducing the Process used in this study after the establishment of a general mixed integer Programming(MIP) model based upon the result of existing studies to decide the location and size simultaneously, a fuzzy mixed integer Programming(FMIP) model has been developed in the use of fuzzy theory. And the general linear Programming software, LINDO 6.01 has been used to simulate, to evaluate the developed model with the examples and to judge of the appropriateness and adaptability of the model(FMIP) in the real world.

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Returns and Resale Price Maintenance in Book Distribution (도서유통(圖書流通) 효율화(效率化)를 위한 공정거래정책(公正去來政策))

  • Shin, Kwang-shik
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.141-161
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    • 1991
  • Resale price maintenance has long been employed in book distribution, perhaps longer than for any other product. Another unusual practice in the book trade that has proven to be quite durable in spite of its substantial cost in real resources is the returns policy. Publishers typically grant the right to return unsold books within a stipulated time for full credit against future orders. This paper investigates the functions and effects of resale price maintenance in the book trade, and argues that resale price maintenance and returns are substitute methods of providing the same economic function. Resale price maintenance can be used to compensate booksellers for initially stocking books with uncertain prospects and for providing a conduit through which manufacturers acquire information about consumer demand (market testing services). Permitting the return of unsold books for full credit places a floor under retail prices and transfers a considerable portion of the cost of introducing a new product line back to the publisher. Both reflect publishers' needs to have their books displayed. In the U.S. returns privileges were first proposed in 1913, roughly coincident with the Macy decision outlawing RPM. Publishers slowly granted return privileges, which become nearly universal by 1970. The decline in margins in recent years has been accompanied by an increase in returns as the return policy served to substitute for lost margins on successful titles as a methods of compensating full-line booksellers. In contrast, returns privileges are unusual in countries where price maintenance in books has been practiced. These observations are consistent with our analysis. In Korea, resale price maintenance of books is practiced under an exception to Korean antitrust law. The availability of effective price maintenance is likely to reduce the use of returns programs. Since consumers prefer to obtain books at outlets where they know the books are likely to be stocked rather than taking a chance on stores that carry a more limited line, it also provides a strong incentive for booksellers to expand. But the privilege of resale price maintenance should be confined to books which publishers want to be price maintained. Resale price maintenance and returns system differ in the transactions costs associated with inventory holding, and publishers' judgement on the comparative advantage of the two schemes should be honored. Publishers should also remain free to authorize sales at discount at any time not to impair the ability of booksellers to dispose of product variants that prove unpopular.

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A Study of Historical Costume from the Mural Tombs of Dukheungri (덕흥리(德興里) 고분벽화(古墳壁畵)의 복식사적(服飾史的) 연구(硏究))

  • Park, Kyung-Ja
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.5
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    • pp.41-63
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    • 1981
  • The mural portraits of the ancient Dukheungri tombs are very important for the study of our traditional costume because the tomb contains a stone. with the in-scription of the date of its erection, 408 A.D. and the name, and official status of the buried. The costumes shown in the mural paintings will be the basis on which historical research can be made concerning costumes before and after 400 A. D. The costume in the mural paintings is classified into five different categories; You (jacket), Po (overcoat), Go (trousers), Sang (skirt), and Gwan (hat). Comparing these categories with those of other mural paintings lead us to the following conclusions. 1. The length of the You (jacket) reaches below the buttocks and the sleeves are narrow. The edges of the sleeves are decorated with stripes. The You (jacket) over-laps on the right, center, and left sides, and there are many Jikryong (V-collar) and Danryong (rounded collar) styles, but it has a similar tendency to others of the Pyongyang area which exhibit many foreign influences. In a departure from tradition. the belts on the men's You (jackets) have only 3 knots in the front, with the back having more knots than the front. The belts of the women's You (jacket) seem to have had a band or button for fastening. We must re-evaluate the assumption that the You (jacket) and Go (trousers) of the northern peoples had the common characters of a belted You (jacket) and Po (over-coat) and that the Gorum originated from the Goryo or Unified Silla dynasty. The outside of the sleeves are longer and more to the side than the inner garment (underwear) so that the sleeves of the inner garment frequently overlapped the outer dress. The above mentioned facts have lead to the discovery of the "Hansam," "Tosi" and "Geodoolgi." 2. The Po (overcoat) was used only by the upperclasses and differs from those found in other mural tombs. The Po (overcoat) of the noble on the tomb mural is centered with an overlapping Jikryong (V-collar) while the other Po (overcoats) of the upperclasses are characterized by an overlap on the left, a Danryong (rounded collar) with two types of sleeves (wide and narrow). Foreign influences and traditional influences coexist in Po (overcoat). Belts have frontal knots without exceptions. The facts that the belts on the You (jackets) are on the front and the belts on the Po (overcoats) are on the back must be reexamined. 3. Go (trousers) is usually narrow, being wider in the rear and narrower below the knees. They were used by hunters on the back of horses with similar Go (trousers) from the Noinwoowha tombs being typical of the northern peoples. 4. Sang (skirts) are pleated as commonly seen in the Goguryo murals. The size of the pleat is varied, each pleat being characteristically wider and having different colors. Same types of pleat are discovered in Central Asia and China. It is uncertain whether the pleat of Goguryo was originated in Central Asia and China or only interrelated with those of the areas. 5. There are three kinds of Gwan (hats); Nagwan, Chuck, and Heukgun. Nag-wan was worn by the dead lords and their close relations. Chuck has three cone shaped horns. Heukgun was worn by military bandmen and horsemen. There are two kinds of hair styles. The up-style was used by the upperclass people closely related to lords, and other people used the Pungimoung hair style. The hair styles of the men and women are characterized by the Pungimoung style. which is a Chinese influence, but still retain their originality. The costume has a similar tendency from those from Yaksuri mural tombs, Anak No. 2 and Anak No. 3. We need to reexamine the costumes from $4{\sim}5$ century murals according to the Dukheungri murals. The costumes of Goguryo share many common factors with those of Western Asia, Central Asia and Ancient China (Han). It seems due to the cultural exchanges among the Northern peoples, the Western and Central Asians, and the Ancient Chinese. It may have resulted from the structural identity or morphological identity of the peoples, or their common social and natural environments and life styles. It will be very valuable to study the costumes of Japan, China, and Korea to find out the common factors. It is only regretful that the study is not based on direct observations but reported information made by 77 persons, because Dukheungri is an off-limits area to us.

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A Study on the Sketch of Trikaya Banner Painting in the Suta-sa Temple (수타사 삼신불괘불도(三身佛掛佛圖) 초본(草本) 연구)

  • Kim, Chang Kyun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.112-131
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    • 2009
  • The Trikaya Banner Painting in the Suta-sa Temple at Hongcheon-gun, Gangwon-do draws attention as it was painted not on flax but on paper, and used the water color painting technique on the sketch rather than the deep color painting technique, which is most common in Buddhist paintings created during the Chosun Dynasty. Nevertheless, there is not any information on the creation of the Trikaya Banner Painting in the painting record on the painting, in Sutasasajeok(壽陀寺史蹟), or in Sutasagogirok(壽陀寺古記錄), so it is uncertain when the painting was created. Furthermore, because it was not drawn by the deep color painting technique, it has been difficult to compare it with other banner paintings. For these reasons, the Trikaya Banner Painting has been studied little except brief introduction. In recent preservation treatment that removed multiple-layered paper from the back of the painting, however, an inked inscription written on Korean paper 118cm high and 87.5cm wide was discovered on the back. It is a kind of placard notifying a number of acts prohibited in order to follow Buddha's teachings correctly, and was found to have been written on April 15, 1690. The inked inscription is a very valuable material for estimating the creation date of the Suta-sa Trikaya Banner Painting, and provides crucial clues for approaching the contents and nature of the painting more precisely. When the image, form, and style of the Suta-sa Trikaya Banner Painting were examined and its creation date was estimated based on the inked inscription, first, the painting is presumed to have been created in around 1690 as suggested by 'the placard' attached on the back instead of a painting record. Second, the painting is highly likely to be the first standing Trikaya banner painting showing the basic icons of Trikaya banner paintings in the Chosun Dynasty since the Trikaya Banner Painting in the Gap-sa Temple in Gongju (1650). Furthermore, considering the shape of the Trikaya in the painting, screen composition, background treatment, solemn and affectionate facial expression, harmonious and adequate body proportion, etc., the painting is believed to have had a considerable influence not only on Trikaya banner paintings of similar style in the 18thcentury but also on deep-color Trikaya banner paintings in the 19thcentury. Third, although the Suta-sa Trikaya Banner Painting is not acompleted work but a sketch, it exhibits the typical water color painting technique in which the strokes are clearly visible. Thus, it is considered highly valuable in understanding and analyzing stroke styles and in studying the history of Buddhist paintings. As there are not many extant banner paintings of the same style in form and expression technique as the Suta-sa Temple Trikaya Banner Painting, this study could not make thorough comparative analysis of the work, but still it is meaningful in that it laid the ground for research on standing Trikaya banner paintings in the 18thand 19thcenturies in the Chosun Dynasty.

Exploring the Role of Preference Heterogeneity and Causal Attribution in Online Ratings Dynamics

  • Chu, Wujin;Roh, Minjung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.61-101
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    • 2014
  • This study investigates when and how disagreements in online customer ratings prompt more favorable product evaluations. Among the three metrics of volume, valence, and variance that feature in the research on online customer ratings, volume and valence have exhibited consistently positive patterns in their effects on product sales or evaluations (e.g., Dellarocas, Zhang, and Awad 2007; Liu 2006). Ratings variance, or the degree of disagreement among reviewers, however, has shown rather mixed results, with some studies reporting positive effects on product sales (e.g., Clement, Proppe, and Rott 2007) while others finding negative effects on product evaluations (e.g., Zhu and Zhang 2010). This study aims to resolve these contradictory findings by introducing preference heterogeneity as a possible moderator and causal attribution as a mediator to account for the moderating effect. The main proposition of this study is that when preference heterogeneity is perceived as high, a disagreement in ratings is attributed more to reviewers' different preferences than to unreliable product quality, which in turn prompts better quality evaluations of a product. Because disagreements mostly result from differences in reviewers' tastes or the low reliability of a product's quality (Mizerski 1982; Sen and Lerman 2007), a greater level of attribution to reviewer tastes can mitigate the negative effect of disagreement on product evaluations. Specifically, if consumers infer that reviewers' heterogeneous preferences result in subjectively different experiences and thereby highly diverse ratings, they would not disregard the overall quality of a product. However, if consumers infer that reviewers' preferences are quite homogeneous and thus the low reliability of the product quality contributes to such disagreements, they would discount the overall product quality. Therefore, consumers would respond more favorably to disagreements in ratings when preference heterogeneity is perceived as high rather than low. This study furthermore extends this prediction to the various levels of average ratings. The heuristicsystematic processing model so far indicates that the engagement in effortful systematic processing occurs only when sufficient motivation is present (Hann et al. 2007; Maheswaran and Chaiken 1991; Martin and Davies 1998). One of the key factors affecting this motivation is the aspiration level of the decision maker. Only under conditions that meet or exceed his aspiration level does he tend to engage in systematic processing (Patzelt and Shepherd 2008; Stephanous and Sage 1987). Therefore, systematic causal attribution processing regarding ratings variance is likely more activated when the average rating is high enough to meet the aspiration level than when it is too low to meet it. Considering that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity occurs through the mediation of causal attribution, this greater activation of causal attribution in high versus low average ratings would lead to more pronounced interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity in high versus low average ratings. Overall, this study proposes that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity is more pronounced when the average rating is high as compared to when it is low. Two laboratory studies lend support to these predictions. Study 1 reveals that participants exposed to a high-preference heterogeneity book title (i.e., a novel) attributed disagreement in ratings more to reviewers' tastes, and thereby more favorably evaluated books with such ratings, compared to those exposed to a low-preference heterogeneity title (i.e., an English listening practice book). Study 2 then extended these findings to the various levels of average ratings and found that this greater preference for disagreement options under high preference heterogeneity is more pronounced when the average rating is high compared to when it is low. This study makes an important theoretical contribution to the online customer ratings literature by showing that preference heterogeneity serves as a key moderator of the effect of ratings variance on product evaluations and that causal attribution acts as a mediator of this moderation effect. A more comprehensive picture of the interplay among ratings variance, preference heterogeneity, and average ratings is also provided by revealing that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity varies as a function of the average rating. In addition, this work provides some significant managerial implications for marketers in terms of how they manage word of mouth. Because a lack of consensus creates some uncertainty and anxiety over the given information, consumers experience a psychological burden regarding their choice of a product when ratings show disagreement. The results of this study offer a way to address this problem. By explicitly clarifying that there are many more differences in tastes among reviewers than expected, marketers can allow consumers to speculate that differing tastes of reviewers rather than an uncertain or poor product quality contribute to such conflicts in ratings. Thus, when fierce disagreements are observed in the WOM arena, marketers are advised to communicate to consumers that diverse, rather than uniform, tastes govern reviews and evaluations of products.

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EU's Space Code of Conduct: Right Step Forward (EU의 우주행동강령의 의미와 평가)

  • Park, Won-Hwa
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.211-241
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    • 2012
  • The Draft International Code of Conduct for Outer Space Activities officially proposed by the European Union on the occasion of the 55th Session of the United Nations Peaceful Uses of the Outer Space last June 2012 in Vienna, Austria is to fill the lacunae of the relevant norms to be applied to the human activities in the outer space and thus has the merit our attention. The missing elements of the norms span from the prohibition of an arms race, safety and security of the space objects including the measures to reduce the space debris to the exchange of information of space activities among space-faring nations. The EU's initiatives, when implemented, cover or will eventually prepare for the forum to deal with such issues of interests of the international community. The EU's initiatives begun at the end of 2008 included the unofficial contacts with major space powers including in particular the USA of which position is believed to have been reflected in the Draft with the aim to have it adopted in 2013. Although the Code is made up of soft law rather than hard law for the subscribing countries, the USA seems to be afraid of the eventuality whereby its strategic advantages in the outer space will be affected by the prohibiting norms, possibly to be pursued by the Code from its current non-binding character, of placing weapons in the outer space. It is with this trepidation that the USA has been opposing to the adoption of the United Nations Assembly Resolutions on the prevention of an arms race in the outer space (PAROS) and in the same context to the setting-up of a working group on the arms race in the outer space in the frame of the Conference on Disarmament. China and Russia who together put forward a draft Treaty on Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects (PPWT) in 2008 would not feel comfortable either because the EU initiatives will steal the lime light. Consequently their reactions are understandably passive towards the Draft Code while the reaction of the USA to the PPWT was a clear cut "No". With the above background, the future of the EU Code is uncertain. Nevertheless, the purpose of the Code to reduce the space debris, to allow exchange of the information on the space activities, and to protect the space objects through safety and security, all to maximize the principle of the peaceful use and exploration of the outer space is the laudable efforts on the part of EU. When the detailed negotiations will be held, some problems including the cost to be incurred by setting up an office for the clerical works could be discussed for both efficient and economic mechanism. For example, the new clerical works envisaged in the Draft Code could be discharged by the current UN OOSA (Office for Outer Space Affairs) with minimal additional resources. The EU's initiatives are another meaningful contribution following one due to it in adopting the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 to the UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on the Climate Change) and deserve the praise from the thoughtful international community.

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Rough Set Analysis for Stock Market Timing (러프집합분석을 이용한 매매시점 결정)

  • Huh, Jin-Nyung;Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Han, In-Goo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.77-97
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    • 2010
  • Market timing is an investment strategy which is used for obtaining excessive return from financial market. In general, detection of market timing means determining when to buy and sell to get excess return from trading. In many market timing systems, trading rules have been used as an engine to generate signals for trade. On the other hand, some researchers proposed the rough set analysis as a proper tool for market timing because it does not generate a signal for trade when the pattern of the market is uncertain by using the control function. The data for the rough set analysis should be discretized of numeric value because the rough set only accepts categorical data for analysis. Discretization searches for proper "cuts" for numeric data that determine intervals. All values that lie within each interval are transformed into same value. In general, there are four methods for data discretization in rough set analysis including equal frequency scaling, expert's knowledge-based discretization, minimum entropy scaling, and na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning-based discretization. Equal frequency scaling fixes a number of intervals and examines the histogram of each variable, then determines cuts so that approximately the same number of samples fall into each of the intervals. Expert's knowledge-based discretization determines cuts according to knowledge of domain experts through literature review or interview with experts. Minimum entropy scaling implements the algorithm based on recursively partitioning the value set of each variable so that a local measure of entropy is optimized. Na$\ddot{i}$ve and Booleanreasoning-based discretization searches categorical values by using Na$\ddot{i}$ve scaling the data, then finds the optimized dicretization thresholds through Boolean reasoning. Although the rough set analysis is promising for market timing, there is little research on the impact of the various data discretization methods on performance from trading using the rough set analysis. In this study, we compare stock market timing models using rough set analysis with various data discretization methods. The research data used in this study are the KOSPI 200 from May 1996 to October 1998. KOSPI 200 is the underlying index of the KOSPI 200 futures which is the first derivative instrument in the Korean stock market. The KOSPI 200 is a market value weighted index which consists of 200 stocks selected by criteria on liquidity and their status in corresponding industry including manufacturing, construction, communication, electricity and gas, distribution and services, and financing. The total number of samples is 660 trading days. In addition, this study uses popular technical indicators as independent variables. The experimental results show that the most profitable method for the training sample is the na$\ddot{i}$ve and Boolean reasoning but the expert's knowledge-based discretization is the most profitable method for the validation sample. In addition, the expert's knowledge-based discretization produced robust performance for both of training and validation sample. We also compared rough set analysis and decision tree. This study experimented C4.5 for the comparison purpose. The results show that rough set analysis with expert's knowledge-based discretization produced more profitable rules than C4.5.

Dynamic Limit and Predatory Pricing Under Uncertainty (불확실성하(不確實性下)의 동태적(動態的) 진입제한(進入制限) 및 약탈가격(掠奪價格) 책정(策定))

  • Yoo, Yoon-ha
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.151-166
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    • 1991
  • In this paper, a simple game-theoretic entry deterrence model is developed that integrates both limit pricing and predatory pricing. While there have been extensive studies which have dealt with predation and limit pricing separately, no study so far has analyzed these closely related practices in a unified framework. Treating each practice as if it were an independent phenomenon is, of course, an analytical necessity to abstract from complex realities. However, welfare analysis based on such a model may give misleading policy implications. By analyzing limit and predatory pricing within a single framework, this paper attempts to shed some light on the effects of interactions between these two frequently cited tactics of entry deterrence. Another distinctive feature of the paper is that limit and predatory pricing emerge, in equilibrium, as rational, profit maximizing strategies in the model. Until recently, the only conclusion from formal analyses of predatory pricing was that predation is unlikely to take place if every economic agent is assumed to be rational. This conclusion rests upon the argument that predation is costly; that is, it inflicts more losses upon the predator than upon the rival producer, and, therefore, is unlikely to succeed in driving out the rival, who understands that the price cutting, if it ever takes place, must be temporary. Recently several attempts have been made to overcome this modelling difficulty by Kreps and Wilson, Milgram and Roberts, Benoit, Fudenberg and Tirole, and Roberts. With the exception of Roberts, however, these studies, though successful in preserving the rationality of players, still share one serious weakness in that they resort to ad hoc, external constraints in order to generate profit maximizing predation. The present paper uses a highly stylized model of Cournot duopoly and derives the equilibrium predatory strategy without invoking external constraints except the assumption of asymmetrically distributed information. The underlying intuition behind the model can be summarized as follows. Imagine a firm that is considering entry into a monopolist's market but is uncertain about the incumbent firm's cost structure. If the monopolist has low cost, the rival would rather not enter because it would be difficult to compete with an efficient, low-cost firm. If the monopolist has high costs, however, the rival will definitely enter the market because it can make positive profits. In this situation, if the incumbent firm unwittingly produces its monopoly output, the entrant can infer the nature of the monopolist's cost by observing the monopolist's price. Knowing this, the high cost monopolist increases its output level up to what would have been produced by a low cost firm in an effort to conceal its cost condition. This constitutes limit pricing. The same logic applies when there is a rival competitor in the market. Producing a high cost duopoly output is self-revealing and thus to be avoided. Therefore, the firm chooses to produce the low cost duopoly output, consequently inflicting losses to the entrant or rival producer, thus acting in a predatory manner. The policy implications of the analysis are rather mixed. Contrary to the widely accepted hypothesis that predation is, at best, a negative sum game, and thus, a strategy that is unlikely to be played from the outset, this paper concludes that predation can be real occurence by showing that it can arise as an effective profit maximizing strategy. This conclusion alone may imply that the government can play a role in increasing the consumer welfare, say, by banning predation or limit pricing. However, the problem is that it is rather difficult to ascribe any welfare losses to these kinds of entry deterring practices. This difficulty arises from the fact that if the same practices have been adopted by a low cost firm, they could not be called entry-deterring. Moreover, the high cost incumbent in the model is doing exactly what the low cost firm would have done to keep the market to itself. All in all, this paper suggests that a government injunction of limit and predatory pricing should be applied with great care, evaluating each case on its own basis. Hasty generalization may work to the detriment, rather than the enhancement of consumer welfare.

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