• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.453-460
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• 2011

By performing a statistical change-point analysis of activities of the tropical cyclones (TCs) that have affected Korea (K-TCs), it was found that there was a significant change between 1983 and 1984. During the period of 1984-2004 (P2), more TCs migrated toward the west, recurved in the southwest, and affected Korea, compared to the period of 1965-1983 (P1). These changes for P2 were related to the southwestward expansion of the subtropical western North Pacific high (SWNPH) and simultaneously elongation of its elliptical shape toward Korea. Because of these changes, the central pressure and lifetime of K-TC during P2 were deeper and longer, respectively, than figures for P1. This stronger K-TC intensity for P2 was related to the more southwestward genesis due to the southwestward expansion of the SWNPH. The weaker vertical wind shear environment during P2 was more favorable for K-TC to maintain a strong intensity in the mid-latitudes of East Asia.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.344-355
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• 2020

Tropical cyclone scale vortices and associated Rossby waves were investigated numerically using high-resolution barotropic models on the global domain. The equations of the barotropic model were discretized using the spectral transform method with the spherical harmonics function as orthogonal basis. The initial condition of the vortex was specified as an axisymmetric flow in the gradient wind balance, and four types of basic zonal states were employed. Vortex tracks showed similar patterns as those on the beta-plane but exhibited more eastward displacement as they moved northward. The zonal-mean flow appeared to control not only the west-east translation but also the meridional translation of the vortex. Such a meridional influence was revealed to be associated with the beta gyre and the Rossby wave, which are formed around the vortex due to the beta effect. In the case of the basic zonal state of climatological mean, the meridional translation speed reached the maximum value when the vortex underwent recurving.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.291-303
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• 2018

In this study, a new consensus technique for predicting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in the western North Pacific was developed. The most important feature of the present consensus model is to select and combine the guidance numerical models with the best performance in the previous years based on various evaluation criteria and averaging methods. Specifically, the performance of the guidance models was evaluated using both the mean absolute error and the correlation coefficient for each forecast lead time, and the number of the numerical models used for the consensus model was not fixed. In averaging multiple models, both simple and weighted methods are used. These approaches are important because that the performance of the available guidance models differs according to forecast lead time and is changing every year. In particular, this study develops both a multi-consensus model (M-CON), which constructs the best consensus models with the lowest error for each forecast lead time, and a single best consensus model (S-CON) having the lowest 72-hour cumulative mean error, through on training process. The evaluation results of the selected consensus models for the training and forecast periods reveal that the M-CON and S-CON outperform the individual best-performance guidance models. In particular, the M-CON showed the best overall performance, having advantages in the early stages of prediction. This study finally suggests that forecaster needs to use the latest evaluation results of the guidance models every year rather than rely on the well-known accuracy of models for a long time to reduce prediction error.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.234-234
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• 2015

The global patterns of annual and extreme precipitation are projected to be altered by climate change. There are various weather systems which bring precipitation (e.g. tropical cyclone, extratropical cyclone, etc.). It is possible in some regions that multiple weather systems affect the changes of precipitation. However, previous studies have assessed only the changes of precipitation associated with individual weather systems. The relative contributions of the weather systems to the changes of precipitation have not been quantified yet. Also, the changes of the relative importance of weather systems have not been assessed. This study present the quantitative estimates of 1) the relative contributions of weather systems (tropical cyclone (TC), extratropical cyclone (ExC), and "others") to the future changes of annual and extreme precipitation and 2) the changes of the proportions of precipitation associated with each weather system in annual and extreme precipitation based on CMIP5 generation GCM outputs. Weather systems are objectively detected from twelve GCM outputs and six models are selected for further analysis considering the reproducibility of weather systems. In general, the weather system which is dominant in terms of producing precipitation in the present climate contributes the most to the changes of annual and extreme precipitation in each region. However, there are exceptions for the tendency. In East Asia, "others", which ranks the second in the proportion of annual precipitation in present climate, has the largest contribution to the increase of annual precipitation. It was found that the increase of the "others" annual precipitation in East Asia is mainly explained by the changes of that in summer season (JJA), most of which can be regarded as the summer monsoon precipitation. In Southeast Asia, "others" precipitation, the second dominant system in the present climate, has the largest contribution to the changes of very heavy precipitation (>99.9 percentile daily precipitation of historical period). Notable changes of the proportions of precipitation associated with each weather system are found mainly in subtropics, which can be regarded as the "hotspot" of the precipitation regime shift.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.177-188
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• 2012

The meteorological events that cause most strong winds in Brazil are extra-tropical cyclones, downbursts and tornadoes. However, one hurricane formed off the coastline of southern Brazil in 2005, a tropical storm formed in 2010 and there are predictions that others may form again. Events such as those described in the paper and which have occurred before 1987, generate data for the wind map presented in the Brazilian wind loading code NBR-6123. This wind map presents the reference wind speeds based on 3-second gust wind speed at 10 m height in open terrain, with 50-year return period, varying from 30 m/s (north half of country) to 50 m/s (extreme south). There is not a separation of the type of climatological event which generated each registered velocity. Therefore, a thunderstorm (TS), an extra-tropical pressure system (EPS) or even a tropical cyclone (TC) are treated the same and its resulting velocities absorbed without differentiation. Since the flow fields generated by each type of meteorological event may be distinct, the indiscriminate combination of the highest wind velocities with aerodynamic coefficients from boundary layer wind tunnels may lead to erroneous loading in buildings.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.29-35
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• 2012

We investigated the interannual relationship between chlorophyll concentrations in the western North Pacific and tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific by analyzing data collected for >12 years. Despite the short-term scale (2~3 weeks) in the contribution of tropical cyclones to phytoplankton, the current study revealed that the long-term chlorophyll variability in the western North Pacific is profoundly related to long-term variability in the frequency of TCs. It was also found that the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) tends to control such relationships between the 2 bio-physical systems. This result suggests a significant climatic relationship between TC activity and marine phytoplankton, and also suggests the possibility of more accurate estimations of primary production in the western North Pacific.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.359-372
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• 2016

The time-series of Walker circulation index (WCI) in this study shows the strengthening of the Walker circulation in recent years. To further understand the large-scale features related to the WCI strengthening, a difference between the averaged meteorological variables in two time periods 1999-2013 and 1984-1998 is analyzed. The difference in 850 hPa stream flows between the two periods shows that the anomalous easterlies (anomalous trade wind) are dominant due to the strengthening of anomalous anticyclonic circulations at the subtropical Pacific of both hemispheres. The difference between the averaged zonal atmospheric circulations over $5^oS-5^oN$ in the two periods confirms that upward flows are strengthened at the tropical western Pacific and downward flows are strengthened at the tropical central and eastern Pacific in recent years. It matches the WCI strengthening in recent years. The time-series of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency from July to September shows that a mean TC genesis frequency from 1999-2013 decreases compared to that of the time period 1984-1998. The monsoon trough in the period 1984-1998 was located in the further east direction and stronger than that in the period 1999-2013. TCs in the recent period that are generated in further west than TCs in the past period moved from the west. Thus, the TC intensity along the coasts in East Asia becomes weaker in recent period. The intensification of Walker circulation in recent years is related to the weaker TC intensity in East Asia through strengthened anomalous anticyclones at the subtropical western Pacific.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.183-197
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to summarize tropical cyclone activity in 2007. 24 tropical cyclones of tropical storm (TS) intensity or higher formed in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2007. The total number is less than the thirty-year (1971~2000) average frequency of 26.7. Out of twenty four tropical cyclones, 14 TCs reached typhoon (TY) intensity, while the rest 10 only reached severe tropical storm (STS) and tropical storm (TS) intensity - four STS and six TS storms. The tropical cyclone season in 2007 began in April with the formation of KONG-REY (0701). From April to May, two TCs formed in the western North Pacific in response to enhanced convective activity there. From June to July, convective activity turned inactive over the sea around the Philippines and in the South China Sea, and the subtropical high was weak over the south of Japan. MAN-YI (0704) and USAGI (0705) moved northwestward and hit Japan, bringing serious damage to the country. After August, convective activity became enhanced over the sea east of the Philippines, and the subtropical high turned strong over the sea south of Japan. Many TCs, which formed over the sea east of the Philippines and in the South China Sea, moved westward and hit China and Vietnam. PABUK (0706), WUTIP (0707), SEPAT (0708), WIPHA (0712), LEKIMA (0714) and KROSA (0715) brought serious damage to some countries including China, the Philippines and Vietnam. On the other hand, FITOW (0709) and NARI (0711) moved northward, bringing serious damage to Japan and Korea. After HAIYAN (0716), all four TCs except FAXAI (0720) formed over the sea east of $140^{\circ}E$. Three typhoons among them affected Republic of Korea, MAN-YI (0704), USAGI (0705) and NARI (0711). Particularly, NARI (0711) moved northward and made landfall at Goheng Peninsula ($34.5^{\circ}N$, $127.4^{\circ}E$) in 1815 KST 16 September. Due to $11^{th}$ typhoon NARI, strong wind and record-breaking rainfall amount was observed in Jeju Island. It was reported that the daily precipitation was 420.0 mm at Jeju city, Jeju Island on 16 September the highest daily rainfall since Jeju began keeping records in 1927. This typhoon hit the southern part of the Korean peninsula and Jeju Island. 18 people lost their lives, 14,170 people were evacuated and US$ 1.6 billion property damage was occurred.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.15-23
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• 2008

KMA (Korea Meteorological Society) and RSMC (Regional Specialized Meteorological Center) Tokyo - Typhoon Center isue 15/30 m/s radii in the TC (tropical cyclone) advisory for the information on the TC size. Meanwhile, JTWC Beaufort wind force scale, 34 kt and 64 kt correspond to the 'gale' and 'hurricane'. A ned to identify the range of the gale/hurricane wind from the TC bulletin of RSMC Tokyo or KMA that contains only 15/30 m/s radi motivates this study. An algorithm for estimating the radius of gale/huricane wind is developed by utilizing Holland's empirical formula on TC's wind-pressure relationship.

• Atmosphere
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.525-532
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• 2008

This study has examined influences of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls on the Gyoengsangbuk-do region, located in southeast of Korea, for the period 1978-2006. This region is known as one of major pass ways of landfalling TCs, and has many cultural properties including Bulguksa, Sukgulam, etc. Thus the influences caused by TCs (i.e., TC damages) may be larger than elsewhere in the nation. Here, TC influence is defined as the cases of strong instantaneous wind speed (${\geq}20ms^{-1}$) and heavy rainfall (${\geq}100mmday^{-1}$) at each station. This study analyzed long-term trends ofTC influences and the relationship with TC tracks are examined. As a result, it is found that large increase of the heavy rainfall cases along the coastal region. By contrast, there are marginal changes in the strong wind speed associated with TC landfalls. Further, it is also found that the cases of the heavy rainfall only are related with TCs passing through the Yellow Sea and the cases of both the strong wind and the heavy rainfall are related with TCs landing from southern Korea.