• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.152-152
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• 2022

Only employing historical data limits the estimation of the full distribution of probable Tropical Cyclone (TC) risk due to the insufficiency of samples. Addressing this limitation, this study introduces a semi-physical TC rainfall model that produces spatially and temporally resolved TC rainfall data to improve TC risk assessments. The model combines a statistical-based track model based on the Markov renewal process to produce synthetic TC tracks, with a physics-based model that considers the interaction between TC and the atmospheric environment to estimate TC rainfall. The simulated data from the combined model are then fitted to a probability distribution function to compute the spatially heterogeneous risk brought by landfalling TCs. The methodology is employed in South Korea as a case study to be able to implement a country-scale-based vulnerability inspection from damaging TC impacts. Results show that the proposed model can produce TC tracks that do not only follow the spatial distribution of past TCs but also reveal new paths that could be utilized to consider events outside of what has been historically observed. The model is also found to be suitable for properly estimating the total rainfall induced by landfalling TCs across various points of interest within the study area. The simulated TC rainfall data enable us to reliably estimate extreme rainfall from higher return periods that are often overlooked when only the historical data is employed. In addition, the model can properly describe the distribution of rainfall extremes that show a heterogeneous pattern throughout the study area and that vary per return period. Overall, results show that the proposed approach can be a valuable tool in providing sufficient TC rainfall samples that could be an aid in improving TC risk assessment.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.469-488
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• 2015

A full-scale instrumented low-rise building with gable roof was built at a coastal site with a high incidence of tropical cyclones for monitoring of wind effects on the building during windstorms. This paper presents the field measurements of the wind velocity field around and the wind-induced pressures on the low-rise building during the passage of severe tropical storm Soudelor. Near-ground wind characteristics such as wind speed, wind direction, turbulence intensity, gust factor, turbulence integral length scale and wind velocity spectra were investigated. The wind-induced pressures on the roof of the building were analyzed and discussed. The results revealed that the eave and ridge edges on the roof were subjected to the most severe suction pressures under quartering winds. These suction pressures showed obvious non-Gaussian behavior. The measured results were compared with the provisions of ASCE 7-10 to assess the suitability of the code of practice for the wind-resistant design of low-rise buildings under tropical cyclones. The field study aims to provide useful information that can enhance our understanding of the extreme wind effects on low-rise buildings in an effort to reduce tropical cyclone wind damages to residential buildings.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.454-464
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• 2010

A probability prediction model for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the Northwestern Pacific area was developed using the logistic regression method. Total five predictors were used in this model: the lower-level relative vorticity, vertical wind shear, mid-level relative humidity, upper-level equivalent potential temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST). The values for four predictors except for SST were obtained from difference of spatial-averaged value between May and January, and the time average of Ni$\tilde{n}$o-3.4 index from February to April was used to see the SST effect. As a result of prediction for the TC genesis frequency from June to December during 1951 to 2007, the model was capable of predicting that 21 (22) years had higher (lower) frequency than the normal year. The analysis of real data indicated that the number of year with the higher (lower) frequency of TC genesis was 28 (29). The overall predictability was about 75%, and the model reliability was also verified statistically through the cross validation analysis method.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.321-334
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• 2020

Engineering type tropical cyclone (TC) wind field models are used to estimate TC wind hazard. Some of the models are well-calibrated using observation data, while others are not extensively compared and verified. They are all proxies to the real TC wind fields. The computational effort for their use differs. In the present study, a comparison of the predicted wind fields is presented by considering three commonly used models: the gradient wind field model, slab-resolving model, and a linear height-resolving model. These models essentially predict the horizontal wind speed at a different height. The gradient wind field model and linear height-resolving model are simple to use while the nonlinear slab-resolving model is more compute-intensive. A set of factors is estimated and recommended such that the estimated TC wind hazard by using these models becomes more consistent. The use of the models, including the developed set of factors, for estimating TC wind hazard over-water and over-land is presented by considering the historical tracks for a few sites. It is shown that the annual maximum TC wind speed can be adequately modelled by the generalized extreme value distribution.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.503-514
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• 2014

Evaluation of predictability of numerical models for tropical cyclone track was performed using along-and cross-track component. The along-and cross-track bias were useful indicators that show the numerical models predictability associated with cause of errors. Since forecast errors, standard deviation and consistency index of along-track component were greater than those of cross-track component, there was some rooms for improvement in alongtrack component. There was an overall slow bias. The most accurate model was JGSM for 24-hour forecast and ECMWF for 48~96-hour forecast in direct position error, along-track error and cross-track error. ECMWF and GFS had a high variability for 24-hour forecast. The results of predictability by track type showed that most significant errors of tropical cyclone track forecast were caused by the failure to estimate the recurvature phenomenon.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.38-38
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• 2012

The East Asia (EA) region including China, Taiwan, Japan, and Korea are especially vulnerable to hydrometerological extremes during the boreal summer (June-September). This study, therefore, pursued an exploratory analysis to improve better understanding of the potential impacts of the two types of PJ patterns on WNP Tropical cyclone (TC) activities and TC-induced extreme moisture fluxes over Korea's five major river basins. This study shows that during positive PJ years, the large-scale atmospheric environments are more favorable for the TC activities than those in negative PJ years. During positive PJ year, it is found that there are weaker wind shear, stronger rising motion, as well as large relative humidity over the Korean peninsula (KP) compared to negative PJ years. As a result, TCs making landfall are more exhibited over the southeastern portions of South Korea. Despite the relatively modest sample size, we expect that insights and results presented here will be useful for developing a critical support system for the effective reduction and mitigation of TC-caused disasters, as well as for water supply management in coupled human and natural systems.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.269-285
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• 2007

This paper assesses the damage to high-set rectangular-plan houses with low-pitch gable roofs (built in the 1960 and 70s in the northern parts of Australia) to wind speeds experienced in tropical cyclones. The study estimates the likely failure mode and percentage of failure for a representative proportion of houses with increasing wind speed. Structural reliability concepts are used to determine the levels of damage. The wind load and the component connection strengths are treated as random variables with log-normal distributions. These variables are derived from experiments, structural analysis, damage investigations and experience. This study also incorporates progressive failures and considers the inter-dependency between the structural components in the house, when estimating the types and percentages of the overall failures in the population of these houses. The progressively increasing percentage of houses being subjected to high internal pressures resulting from damage to the envelope is considered. Results from this study also compare favourably with levels of damage and related modes of failure for high-set houses observed in post-cyclone damage surveys.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.23-45
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• 2023

Tuvalu is a small reef islands country in the Pacific Ocean. Its coastal regions are very much dynamic due to the profound effects of tropical cyclones and sea level rise (SLR). However, research works on coastline dynamics of Tuvalu mainly cover its capital, Funafuti. Therefore, this review summarizes the extent of long-term coastal changes in different islets of Funafuti and on overall Tuvalu. In Funafuti, highly accreting areas are Te Afualiku, Fuafatu, Motugie, and Amatuku, and highly eroding areas are Fuagea and Tefala with the fully disappeared islet of Vasafua after 2005. However, in spite of different causes and supposition of scientists on disappearing these lands the accretion is more dominant than erosion which resulted in 7.3% net increase of land areas of Tuvalu over 117 years till 2015. Severe tropical cyclones mainly caused accretion of land areas by forming coral rubble rampart formation and further reworks and erosion to small sandy islands whereas frequent low-energy cyclones mainly caused erosion. Though, till now severe erosion of coastal areas are not evident by global SLR, islets of Funafuti experienced remarkable shoreline increase as formation of 30-40 m wide rubble rampart formation along 19 km in 1971 by tropical cyclone Bebe and net increase of area of 3.45 ha by tropical cyclone Pam in 2015. In spite of such overall accretion of coastal areas several scientists suspect drowning of its areas in future because of high SLR (~5.1±0.7 mm/year) at Funafuti which supposedly will not work as a breakwater anymore. Thus, protection measures should be taken to prevent coastline erosion as well as land reclamation activities should be done following the global examples.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.315-329
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• 2023

We investigated the wind characteristics in the near-surface layer during the landfall of Typhoon Mujigae (2015) based on observations from wind towers in the coastal areas of Guandong province. Typhoon Mujigae made landfall in this region from 01:00 UTC to 10:00 UTC on October 4, 2015. In the region influenced by the eyewall of the tropical cyclone, the horizontal wind speed was characterized by a double peak, the wind direction changed by >180°, the vertical wind speed increased by three to four times, and the angle of attack increased significantly to a maximum of 7°, exceeding the recommended values in current design criteria. The vertical wind profile may not conform to a power law distribution in the near-surface layer in the region impacted by the eyewall and spiral rainband. The gust factors were relatively dispersed when the horizontal wind speed was small and tended to a smaller value and became more stable with an increase in the horizontal wind speed. The variation in the gust factors was the combined result of the height, wind direction, and circulation systems of the tropical cyclone. The turbulence intensity and the downwind turbulence energy spectrum both increased notably in the eyewall and spiral rainband and no longer satisfied the assumption of isotropy in the inertial subrange and the -5/3 law. This result was more significant in the eyewall area than in the spiral rainband. These results provide a reference for forecasting tropical cyclones, wind-resistant design, and hazard prevention in coastal areas of China to reduce the damage caused by high winds induced by tropical cyclones.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.24 no.11
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• pp.1371-1384
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• 2015

This study analyzes the characteristics of Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and large-scale environments according to the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern in summer. In the positive WP phase, an anomalous cyclone and an anomalous anticyclone develop in the low and middle latitudes of the East Asia, respectively. As a result, southeasterlies are reinforced in the northeast area of the East Asia including Korea and Japan which facilitates the movement of TC to this area, whereas northwesterlies are reinforced in the southwest area of the East Asia including South China and Indochina Peninsula which blocks the movement of TC to this area. Due to the spatial distribution of this reinforced pressure system, TCs develop, move, and turn more to the northeast of WNP than those in the negative WP phase. Consequently, the characteristics of this TC activity in the positive WP phase are associated with the location of upper tropospheric jet further to the northeast. Meanwhile, TCs in the negative WP phase mainly move to the west from Philippines toward south China and Indochina Peninsula. Furthermore, due to the terrain effect caused by the high passage frequency of TCs in the mainland China, the intensity of TCs are weaker than those in the positive WP phase.