• Title, Summary, Keyword: Tropical cyclone

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Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Activity Influenced by Decadal Variability of SST (해수면 온도의 10년 주기 변동에 영향을 받는 Tropical Cyclone의 특징)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyeok;Kang, In-Sik
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.485-492
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    • 2008
  • This study confirms that a decadal variation of the SST (Sea Surface Temperature) in the WNP (Western North Pacific) has an influence on the genesis and passage ofa Tropical Cyclone. The decadal mode was obtained by calculating the SST anomaly on the domain $150^{\circ}E-190^{\circ}E$, and $5^{\circ}S-5^{\circ}N$. Such decadal variation was subsequently analyzed to confirm that it is a dominant mode in central Pacific region. Next, after classifying the years into relatively positive years and relatively negative years, the characteristics of Tropical Cyclone in each year, such as a genesis and passage frequency, were investigated. Compared to the relatively negative years, during the relatively positive years, the location of Tropical Cyclone genesis was biased toward South-Eastern region, while the characteristics of the cyclone were more distinct during late season of the year trom September to December than in mid season from June to August. Examining the movement passage through the observation of passage fiequency, there was a significant difference between positive year and negative year in their passages at a 90% confidence level. Moreover, the number of Tropical Cyclone, maximum wind, and life time also showed higher values in positive years than in negative years. These features were confirmed by examining the 850hPa cyclonic flow field, vorticity field, and vertical wind shear field, all of which contribute to the genesis of a Tropical Cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast Using Asymmetric 3-Dimensional Bogus Vortex (비축대칭 3차원 모조 소용돌이를 이용한 열대저기압의 진로 및 강도예측)

  • Lee, Jae-Deok;Cheong, Hyeong-Bin;Kang, Hyun-Gyu;Kwon, In-Hyuk
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.207-223
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    • 2014
  • The bogussing method was further developed by incorporating the asymmetric component into the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone of the Structure Adjustable Balanced Vortex (SABV). The asymmetric component is separated from the disturbance field associated with the tropical cyclone by establishing local polar coordinates whose center is the location of the tropical cyclone. The relative importance of wave components in azimuthal direction was evaluated, and only two or three wave components with large amplitude are added to the symmetric components. Using the Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF), initialized with the asymmetric bogus vortex, the track and central pressure of tropical cyclones were predicted. Nine tropical cyclones, which passed over Korean peninsula during 2010~2012 were selected to assess the effect of asymmetric components. Compared to the symmetric bogus tropical cyclone, the track forecast error was reduced by about 18.9% and 17.4% for 48 hours and 72 hours forecast, while the central pressure error was not improved significantly. The results suggest that the inclusion of asymmetric component is necessary to improve the track forecast of tropical cyclones.

Application of Vertical Grid-nesting to the Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast

  • Kim, Hyeon-Ju;Cheong, Hyeong-Bin;Lee, Chung-Hui
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.382-391
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    • 2019
  • The impact of vertical grid-nesting on the tropical cyclone intensity and track forecast was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) version 3.8 and the initialization method of the Structure Adjustable Balanced Bogus Vortex (SABV). For a better resolution in the central part of the numerical domain, where the tropical cyclone of interest is located, a horizontal and vertical nesting technique was employed. Simulations of the tropical cyclone Sanba (16th in 2012) indicated that the vertical nesting had a weak impact on the cyclone intensity and little impact on the track forecast. Further experiments revealed that the performance of forecast was quite sensitive to the horizontal resolution, which is in agreement with previous studies. The improvement is due to the fact that horizontal resolution can improve forecasts not only on the tropical cyclone-scale but also for large-scale disturbances.

Tropical Cyclone Center and Intensity Analysis from GMS-4 TBB data (GMS-4 $T_{BB}$ 자료를 이용한 태풍의 중심 및 강도 분석)

  • 김용상;서애숙;신도식;김동호
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.111-125
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    • 1996
  • A forecast technique using GMS-4(Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) infrared images and its $T_{BB}$ (Brightness Temperature) data to determine the tropical cyclone center and to analyze the tropical cyclone intensity has been developed. First, the determination of typhoon center using $T_{BB}$ distribution pattern is practiced by understanding a special feature of central cloud pattern and cloud band which is analyzed with the method of pseudo coloring. Then, to forecast the intensity of tropical cyclone, a relationship between the central pressure (or maximum wind speed) of tropical cyclone and $T_{BB}$ measured by GMS near the tropical cyclone center was investigated. The results showed a correlation with a high lag relationship between central pressures and $T_{BB}$. The mean Tee in the ring of 200~300km apart from the tropical cyclone center showed the best correlation to central pressure of the tropical cyclone after 24hour. From this relationship, a regression equation to forecast the central pressure (or maximum wind speed) was derived.

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Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific in 2009 (2009년 태풍 특징)

  • Cha, Eun-Jeong;Kwon, H. Joe;Kim, Sejin
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.451-466
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    • 2010
  • This edition has continued since 2006 tropical cyclone season our effort to provide standard tropical cyclone summaries by the western North Pacific basin and detailed reviews of operationally or meteorologically significant tropical cyclones to document significant challenges and shortfalls in the tropical cyclone warning system to serve as a focal point for research and development efforts. The tropical cyclone season of 2009 in the western North Pacific basin is summarized and the main characteristics of general atmospheric circulation are described. Also, the official track and intensity forecasts of these cyclones are verified. The total number is less than 59-year (1951~2009) average frequency of 26.4. The 2009 western North Pacific season was an inactive one, in which 22 tropical storms generated. Of these, 13 TCs reached typhoon (TY) intensity, while the rest 9 TCs only reached severe tropical storm (STS) and tropical storm (TS) intensity - three STS and six TS storms. On average of 22 TCs in 2009, the Korea Meteorological Administration official track forecast error for 48 hours was 219 km. There was a big challenge for individual cyclones such as 0902 CHAN-HOM, 0909 ETAU, and 0920 LUPIT resulting in significant forecast error, with both intricate tracks and irregular moving speed. There was no tropical cyclone causing significant direct impact to the country. The tropical cyclone season in 2009 began in May with the formation of KUJIRA (0901). In September and October, ten TSs formed in the western North Pacific in response to enhanced convective activity. On the other hand, the TC activity was very weak from June to July. It is found that the unusual anti-cyclonic circulation in the lower level and weak convection near the Philippines are dominant during summertime. The convection and atmospheric circulation in the western North Pacific contributed unfavorable condition for TC activity in the 2009 summertime. Year 2009 has continued the below normal condition since mid 1990s which is apparent in the decadal variability in TC activity.

An Estimation of the of Tropical Cyclone Size Using COMS Infrared Imagery (천리안 위성 적외영상 자료를 이용한 태풍강풍반경의 산출)

  • Lee, Yoon-Kyoung;Kwon, MinHo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.569-573
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    • 2015
  • An algorithm to symmetric radius of $15ms^{-1}$ isotaches of tropical cyclones is suggested using infrared (IR) imagery of geostationary satellite. It is assumed that symmetric tangential winds outside the maximum winds exponentially decrease with the radial distances of the tropical cyclone, which has a clear eye-wall structure. Four parameters for estimation of the tropical cyclone size are center location, maximum sustained wind, radius of the maximum wind, and relaxation coefficient for the decreasing rate with distances of the tropical cyclone. The estimation results are limitedly verified as comparing to surface winds of polar orbiting satellite such as ASCAT data.

A review of tropical cyclone wind field models

  • Wills, J.A.B.;Lee, B.E.;Wyatt, T.A.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 2000
  • Engineered structures such as buildings and bridges in certain regions of the world need to be designed to withstand tropical cyclone winds, otherwise known as typhoons or hurricanes. In order to carry out this design, it is necessary to be able to estimate the maximum wind speeds likely to be encountered by the structure over its expected lifetime, say 100 years. Estimation of the maximum wind involves not only the overall strength of the tropical cyclone, but the variation of wind speed with radius from the centre, circumferential position, and with height above the ground surface. In addition, not only the mean wind speed, but also the gust factor must usually be estimated as well. This paper investigates a number of recent mathematical models of tropical cyclone structure and comments on their suitability for these purposes in a variety of scenarios.

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Frequency in the Western North Pacific using GDAPS Ensemble Prediction System (GDAPS 앙상블 예보 시스템을 이용한 북서태평양에서의 태풍 발생 계절 예측)

  • Kim, Ji-Sun;Kwon, H. Joe
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.269-279
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    • 2007
  • This study investigates the possibility of seasonal prediction for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific by using a dynamical modeling approach. We use data from the SMIP/HFP (Seasonal Prediction Model Inter-comparison Project/Historical Forecast Project) experiment with the Korea Meteorological Administration's GDAPS (Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System) T106 model, focusing our analysis on model-generated tropical cyclones. It is found that the prediction depends primarily on the tropical cyclone (TC) detecting criteria. Additionally, a scaling factor and a different weighting to each ensemble member are found to be essential for the best predictions of summertime TC activity. This approach indeed shows a certain skill not only in the category forecast but in the standard verifications such as Brier score and relative operating characteristics (ROC).

Relationships between Summer Droughts in Korea and Activities of Tropical Cyclones over the Northwestern Pacific (한국 여름가뭄과 북서태평양 태풍활동의 연관성)

  • Choi, Ki-Seon;Kim, Do-Woo;Byun, Hi-Ryong
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.279-286
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    • 2008
  • In the tropical western Pacific (especially, west of 135oE, including South China Sea and the Philippines), during boreal summer, it was found that a strong correlation exists between the tropical cyclone activity and the drought conditions in Korea. During the summer drought, firstly, there were strong ascending flows over the tropical western Pacific with more tropical cyclone genesis, and to compensate for this, descending flows develop in the mid-latitudes, thereby causing drought; in other words, a secondary circulation is formed between the tropical western Pacific and mid-latitudes of East Asia. Secondly, the developments of both the subtropical western Pacific high and the Manchurian low are suppressed. As a result, both the land-sea pressure gradient and the southerly flow from low-latitudes to Korean area are also weakened, which reduces approaches of tropical cyclones to this area despite the high frequency of their geneses.

Seasonal variability of cyclone heat potential and cyclonic responses in the Bay of Bengal characterized using moored observatories

  • Vengatesan, G.;Shanmugam, P.;Venkatesan, R.;Vedachalam, N.;Joseph, Jossia K.
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.181-199
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    • 2020
  • Cyclone Heat Potential (CHP) is an essential parameter for accurate prediction of the intensity of tropical cyclones. The variability of the heat storage in the near-surface layers and the vertical stratification near the surface due to large fresh water inputs create challenges in predicting the intraseasonal and interannual evolution of monsoons and tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. This paper for the first time presents the D26- referenced cyclone heat potential observed in the Bay of Bengal during the period 2012-17 based on the in-situ data collected from 5.5 million demanding offshore instrument-hours of operation in the Ocean Moored Buoy Network for Northern Indian Ocean (OMNI) buoy network by the National Institute of Ocean Technology. It is observed that the CHP in the Bay of Bengal varied from 0-220 kJ/㎠ during various seasons. From the moored buoy observations, a CHP of ~ 90 kJ/㎠ with the D26 isotherm of minimum 100m is favorable for the intensification of the post-monsoon tropical cyclones. The responses of the D26 thermal structure during major tropical cyclone events in the Bay of Bengal are also presented.