• Title/Summary/Keyword: Trend Model

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Development of TREND dynamics code for molten salt reactors

  • Yu, Wen;Ruan, Jian;He, Long;Kendrick, James;Zou, Yang;Xu, Hongjie
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.455-465
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    • 2021
  • The Molten Salt Reactor (MSR), one of the six advanced reactor types of the 4th generation nuclear energy systems, has many impressive features including economic advantages, inherent safety and nuclear non-proliferation. This paper introduces a system analysis code named TREND, which is developed and used for the steady and transient simulation of MSRs. The TREND code calculates the distributions of pressure, velocity and temperature of single-phase flows by solving the conservation equations of mass, momentum and energy, along with a fluid state equation. Heat structures coupled with the fluid dynamics model is sufficient to meet the demands of modeling MSR system-level thermal-hydraulics. The core power is based on the point reactor neutron kinetics model calculated by the typical Runge-Kutta method. An incremental PID controller is inserted to adjust the operation behaviors. The verification and validation of the TREND code have been carried out in two aspects: detailed code-to-code comparison with established thermal-hydraulic system codes such as RELAP5, and validation with the experimental data from MSRE and the CIET facility (the University of California, Berkeley's Compact Integral Effects Test facility).The results indicate that TREND can be used in analyzing the transient behaviors of MSRs and will be improved by validating with more experimental results with the support of SINAP.

Selection of Climate Indices for Nonstationary Frequency Analysis and Estimation of Rainfall Quantile (비정상성 빈도해석을 위한 기상인자 선정 및 확률강우량 산정)

  • Jung, Tae-Ho;Kim, Hanbeen;Kim, Hyeonsik;Heo, Jun-Haeng
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.165-174
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    • 2019
  • As a nonstationarity is observed in hydrological data, various studies on nonstationary frequency analysis for hydraulic structure design have been actively conducted. Although the inherent diversity in the atmosphere-ocean system is known to be related to the nonstationary phenomena, a nonstationary frequency analysis is generally performed based on the linear trend. In this study, a nonstationary frequency analysis was performed using climate indices as covariates to consider the climate variability and the long-term trend of the extreme rainfall. For 11 weather stations where the trend was detected, the long-term trend within the annual maximum rainfall data was extracted using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition. Then the correlation between the extracted data and various climate indices was analyzed. As a result, autumn-averaged AMM, autumn-averaged AMO, and summer-averaged NINO4 in the previous year significantly influenced the long-term trend of the annual maximum rainfall data at almost all stations. The selected seasonal climate indices were applied to the generalized extreme value (GEV) model and the best model was selected using the AIC. Using the model diagnosis for the selected model and the nonstationary GEV model with the linear trend, we identified that the selected model could compensate the underestimation of the rainfall quantiles.

The Prediction of Cryptocurrency Prices Using eXplainable Artificial Intelligence based on Deep Learning (설명 가능한 인공지능과 CNN을 활용한 암호화폐 가격 등락 예측모형)

  • Taeho Hong;Jonggwan Won;Eunmi Kim;Minsu Kim
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.129-148
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    • 2023
  • Bitcoin is a blockchain technology-based digital currency that has been recognized as a representative cryptocurrency and a financial investment asset. Due to its highly volatile nature, Bitcoin has gained a lot of attention from investors and the public. Based on this popularity, numerous studies have been conducted on price and trend prediction using machine learning and deep learning. This study employed LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) and CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks), which have shown potential for predictive performance in the finance domain, to enhance the classification accuracy in Bitcoin price trend prediction. XAI(eXplainable Artificial Intelligence) techniques were applied to the predictive model to enhance its explainability and interpretability by providing a comprehensive explanation of the model. In the empirical experiment, CNN was applied to technical indicators and Google trend data to build a Bitcoin price trend prediction model, and the CNN model using both technical indicators and Google trend data clearly outperformed the other models using neural networks, SVM, and LSTM. Then SHAP(Shapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to the predictive model to obtain explanations about the output values. Important prediction drivers in input variables were extracted through global interpretation, and the interpretation of the predictive model's decision process for each instance was suggested through local interpretation. The results show that our proposed research framework demonstrates both improved classification accuracy and explainability by using CNN, Google trend data, and SHAP.

Quantification of Microstructures in Mice Alveolar Bone using Micro-computed tomography (${\mu}CT$)

  • Park, Hae-Ryoung;Kim, Hyun-Jin;Park, Byung-Ju
    • International Journal of Oral Biology
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2013
  • Periodontal inflammation increases the risk of tooth loss, particularly in cases where there is an associated loss of alveolar bone and periodontal ligament (PDL). Histological and morphometric evaluation of periodontal inflammation is difficult. Especially, the lengths of the periodontal ligament and interdental alveolar bone space have not been quantified. A quantitative imaging procedure applicable to an animal model would be an important clinical study. The purpose of this study was to quantify the loss of alveolar bone and periodontal ligament by evaluation with micro-computed tomography (micro-CT). Another purpose was to investigate differences in infections with systemic E. coli LPS and TNF-${\alpha}$ on E. coli lipopolysaccharide (LPS) in loss of alveolar bone and periodontal ligament model on mice. This study showed that linear measurements of alveolar bone loss were represented with an increasing trend of the periodontal ligament length and interdental alveolar process space. The effects of systemic E. coli LPS and TNF-${\alpha}$ on an E. coli LPS-induced periodontitis mice model were investigated in this research. Loss of periodontal ligament and alveolar bone were evaluated by micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) and calculated by the two- and three dimensional microstructure morphometric parameters. Also, there was a significantly increasing trend of the interdental alveolar process space in E. coli LPS and TNF-${\alpha}$ on E. coli LPS compared to PBS. And E. coli LPS and TNF-${\alpha}$ on E. coli LPS had a slightly increasing trend of the periodontal ligament length. The increasing trend of TNF-${\alpha}$ on the LPS-induced mice model in this experiment supports the previous studies on the contribution of periodontal diseases in the pathogenesis of systemic diseases. Also, our findings offer a unique model for the study of the role of LPS-induced TNF-${\alpha}$ in systemic and chronic local inflammatory processes and inflammatory diseases. In this study, we performed rapidly quantification of the periodontal inflammatory processes and periodontal bone loss using micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) in mice.

Detrending Crop Yield Data for Improving MODIS NDVI and Meteorological Data Based Rice Yield Estimation Model (벼 수량 자료의 추세분석을 통한 MODIS NDVI 및 기상자료 기반의 벼 수량 추정 모형 개선)

  • Na, Sang-il;Hong, Suk-young;Ahn, Ho-yong;Park, Chan-won;So, Kyu-ho;Lee, Kyung-do
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 2021
  • By removing the increasing trend that long-term time series average of rice yield due to technological advancement of rice variety and cultivation management, we tried to improve the rice yield estimation model which developed earlier using MODIS NDVI and meteorological data. A multiple linear regression analysis was carried out by using the NDVI derived from MYD13Q1 and weather data from 2002 to 2019. The model was improved by analyzing the increasing trend of rime-series rice yield and removing it. After detrending, the accuracy of the model was evaluated through the correlation analysis between the estimated rice yield and the yield statistics using the improved model. It was found that the rice yield predicted by the improved model from which the trend was removed showed good agreement with the annual change of yield statistics. Compared with the model before the trend removal, the correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination were also higher. It was indicated that the trend removal method effectively corrects the rice yield estimation model.

Intervention Analysis of Urbanization Effect on Rainfall Data at the Seoul Rain Gauge Station (서울지점 강우자료에 나타난 도시화의 간섭 분석)

  • Yoo, Chul-Sang;Kim, Dae-Ha;Park, Sang-Hyoung;Kim, Byung-Su;Park, Chang-Yeol
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.8
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    • pp.629-641
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    • 2007
  • This study estimated the urbanization effect of Seoul, the largest city in Korea, on its rainfall. For a comparative analysis, two different data sets are used: One is the precipitation data at the Jeonju rain gauge station, which has a relatively long record length but least urbanization effect, and the other at the Ichon rain gauge station, which has a short record length but located very near to Seoul with least urbanization effect. Also, the difference of the rainfall between Seoul and Jeonju rain gauge stations, as an indicator of urbanization effect, is quantified by use of the intervention model. As a result, it was found that the maximum rainfall intensity of the annual maximum rainfall events shows the increasing trend, its duration the decreasing trend, and the mean intensity the decreasing trend especially after 1960. Also, the quantification of urbanization effect using the intervention model shows that the increasing trend of rainfall intensity and total volume is still on going.

Future Change Using the CMIP5 MME and Best Models: II. The Thermodynamic and Dynamic Analysis on Near and Long-Term Future Climate Change over East Asia (CMIP5 MME와 Best 모델의 비교를 통해 살펴본 미래전망: II. 동아시아 단·장기 미래기후전망에 대한 열역학적 및 역학적 분석)

  • Kim, Byeong-Hee;Moon, Hyejin;Ha, Kyung-Ja
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.249-260
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    • 2015
  • The changes in thermodynamic and dynamic aspects on near (2025~2049) and long-term (2075~2099) future climate changes between the historical run (1979~2005) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run with 20 coupled models which employed in the phase five of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) over East Asia (EA) and the Korean Peninsula are investigated as an extended study for Moon et al. (2014) study noted that the 20 models' multi-model ensemble (MME) and best five models' multi-model ensemble (B5MME) have a different increasing trend of precipitation during the boreal winter and summer, in spite of a similar increasing trend of surface air temperature, especially over the Korean Peninsula. Comparing the MME and B5MME, the dynamic factor (the convergence of mean moisture by anomalous wind) and the thermodynamic factor (the convergence of anomalous moisture by mean wind) in terms of moisture flux convergence are analyzed. As a result, the dynamic factor causes the lower increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal winter and summer over EA. However, over the Korean Peninsula, the dynamic factor causes the lower increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal winter, whereas the thermodynamic factor causes the higher increasing trend of precipitation in B5MME than the MME during the boreal summer. Therefore, it can be noted that the difference between MME and B5MME on the change in precipitation is affected by dynamic (thermodynamic) factor during the boreal winter (summer) over the Korean Peninsula.

Current trend of Korean apartment shown in PanGyo new city (판교신도시의 브랜드 아파트 모델하우스를 통해 본 최근 아파트 계획 경향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Mi-Sun;Lee, Soo-Jin;Lee, Yeun-Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Interior Design Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.137-142
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    • 2007
  • Currently, brand apartment is positioning itself as one of the representative Korean housing. This allows to look into the planning side and cultural side of the Korean housing. The purpose of this study is to review the previous trend in apartment housing according to period, and to verify the trend of current Korean apartment housing by visiting the model houses in PanGyo, the new city. This study has chosen case study method of 11 cases which had been sorted out in different floor plan type and size. The findings of the study is as followed. In the aspect of spatial arrangement, it had been similar to the previous apartment plan but had a new attempt to break out from the old apartment structure by bring in round shaped living room. Also, due to the legalization of balcony expansion, various tries had been made to increase the level of function and to allow variety of usage. In the environmental aspect, the concept of wellbeing and health had been a great importance in apartment planning. In the digital aspect, various digital systems had been introduce for convenience and safety via home network system. Furthermore, based on the various lifestyle, the storytelling design concept applied in the interior design, which will have to effect the future model house design planning. Nonetheless, the current emphasis on universal design is expected to be treated one of the important concept in Korean apartment planning. This study has a significant meaning on readdressing current trend in Korean housing and to provide informations for future directions on Korean apartment planning.

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On the Effectiveness of Centering, Interpolation and Extrapolation in Estimating the Mean of a Population with Linear Trend

  • Kim, Hyuk-Joo;Jung, Sun-Ju
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.365-379
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    • 2002
  • We apply the techniques of interpolation and extrapolation to derive a new estimator based on centered modified systematic sampling for the mean of a population which has a linear trend. The efficiency of the proposed estimation method is compared with that of various existing methods. An illustrative numerical example is given.

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Research trends in hypertext information retrieval (하이퍼텍스트 정보검색에 관한 연구동향)

  • 이영자
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.21
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    • pp.57-86
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of the study is to understand the research trends in the hypertext information retrieval. Around 30 related papers were investigated, from which three distinctive streams of research trends are grasped: 1) a trend of incorporating the traditional retrieval models, especially the query-based searching model into the hypermedia system. 2) a trend of a n.0, pplying the hypermedia system as an interface to the OPAC system, 3) a trend of incorporating the artificial intelligence techniques into the hypermedia techniques. The research on the hypermedia is going on, and the research directions will be increasingly intend to incorporate the traditional retrieval models and artificial intelligence techniques into the hypermedia system.

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