• Title/Summary/Keyword: Trend Model

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Evaluation of the future agricultural drought severity of South Korea by using reservoir drought index (RDI) and climate change scenarios (저수지 가뭄지수와 기후변화 시나리오를 이용한 우리나라 미래 농업가뭄 평가)

  • Kim, Jin Uk;Lee, Ji Wan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.381-395
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to predict agricultural reservoir storage rate (RSR) in a month. This algorithm was developed by multiple linear regression model (MLRM) which included the past 3 months RSRs data and the future climate change scenarios. In order to improve use of predicted RSR, this study need the severe criteria in terms of drought. So, the predicted RSR was indexed as the 3 months reservoir drought index (RDI3) and then it was disaggregated into drought duration, severity, and intensity. For the future RSR estimation by climate change scenarios, the 6 RCP 8.5 scenarios of HadGEM2-ES, CESM1-BGC, MPI-ESM-MR, INM-CM4, FGOALS-s2, and HadGEM3-RA were used in three future evaluation periods (S1: 2011~2040, S2: 2041~2070, S3: 2071~2099). The future S3 period of HadGEM2-ES scenario which has the biggest increase in precipitation and temperature showed the largest decrease to 60.2% among the 6 scenarios compared to the historical RSR (1976~2005) 77.3%. In contrast, INM-CM4 scenario which has smallest changes in precipitation and temperature in S3 period showed the smallest decrease to 72.8%. For the CESM1-BGC and MPI-ESM-MR, FGOALS-s2, and HadGEM3-RA, the S3 period RSR showed 72.6%, 72.6%, 67.4%, and 64.5% decrease respectively. The future severe drought condition of RDI3 below -0.25 showed the increase trend for the number and severity up to -2.0 during S3 period.

No-Touch Radiofrequency Ablation of VX2 Hepatic Tumors In Vivo in Rabbits: A Proof of Concept Study

  • Kim, Tae-Hyung;Choi, Hyoung In;Kim, Bo Ram;Kang, Ji Hee;Nam, Ju Gang;Park, Sae Jin;Lee, Seunghyun;Yoon, Jeong Hee;Lee, Dong Ho;Joo, Ijin;Lee, Jeong Min
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.1099-1109
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    • 2018
  • Objective: In a proof of concept study, we compared no-touch radiofrequency ablation (NtRFA) in bipolar mode with conventional direct tumor puncture (DTP) in terms of local tumor control (LTC), peritoneal seeding, and tumorigenic factors, in the rabbit VX2 subcapsular hepatic tumor model. Materials and Methods: Sixty-two rabbits with VX2 subcapsular hepatic tumors were divided into three groups according to the procedure: DTP-RFA (n = 25); NtRFA (n = 25); and control (n = 12). Each of the three groups was subdivided into two sets for pathologic analysis (n = 24) or computed tomography (CT) follow-up for 6 weeks after RFA (n = 38). Ultrasonography-guided DTP-RFA and NtRFA were performed nine days after tumor implantation. LTC was defined by either achievement of complete tumor necrosis on histopathology or absence of local tumor progression on follow-up CT and autopsy. Development of peritoneal seeding was also compared among the groups. Serum hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) were measured via ELISA (Elabscience Biotechnology Co.) after RFA for tumorigenic factor evaluation. Results: Regarding LTC, there was a trend in NtRFA (80%, 20/25) toward better ablation than in DTP-RFA (56%, 14/25) (p = 0.069). Complete tumor necrosis was achieved in 54.5% of DTP-RFA (6/11) and 90.9% of NtRFA (10/11). Peritoneal seeding was significantly more common in DTP-RFA (71.4%, 10/14) than in NtRFA (21.4%, 3/14) (p = 0.021) or control (0%). Elevations of HGF, VEGF or IL-6 were not detected in any group. Conclusion: No-touch radiofrequency ablation led to lower rates of peritoneal seeding and showed a tendency toward better LTC than DTP-RFA.

Wind load and wind-induced effect of the large wind turbine tower-blade system considering blade yaw and interference

  • Ke, S.T.;Wang, X.H.;Ge, Y.J.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.71-87
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    • 2019
  • The yaw and interference effects of blades affect aerodynamic performance of large wind turbine system significantly, thus influencing wind-induced response and stability performance of the tower-blade system. In this study, the 5MW wind turbine which was developed by Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics (NUAA) was chosen as the research object. Large eddy simulation on flow field and aerodynamics of its wind turbine system with different yaw angles($0^{\circ}$, $5^{\circ}$, $10^{\circ}$, $20^{\circ}$, $30^{\circ}$ and $45^{\circ}$) under the most unfavorable blade position was carried out. Results were compared with codes and measurement results at home and abroad, which verified validity of large eddy simulation. On this basis, effects of yaw angle on average wind pressure, fluctuating wind pressure, lift coefficient, resistance coefficient,streaming and wake characteristics on different interference zone of tower of wind turbine were analyzed. Next, the blade-cabin-tower-foundation integrated coupling model of the large wind turbine was constructed based on finite element method. Dynamic characteristics, wind-induced response and stability performance of the wind turbine structural system under different yaw angle were analyzed systematically. Research results demonstrate that with the increase of yaw angle, the maximum negative pressure and extreme negative pressure of the significant interference zone of the tower present a V-shaped variation trend, whereas the layer resistance coefficient increases gradually. By contrast, the maximum negative pressure, extreme negative pressure and layer resistance coefficient of the non-interference zone remain basically same. Effects of streaming and wake weaken gradually. When the yaw angle increases to $45^{\circ}$, aerodynamic force of the tower is close with that when there's no blade yaw and interference. As the height of significant interference zone increases, layer resistance coefficient decreases firstly and then increases under different yaw angles. Maximum means and mean square error (MSE) of radial displacement under different yaw angles all occur at circumferential $0^{\circ}$ and $180^{\circ}$ of the tower. The maximum bending moment at tower bottom is at circumferential $20^{\circ}$. When the yaw angle is $0^{\circ}$, the maximum downwind displacement responses of different blades are higher than 2.7 m. With the increase of yaw angle, MSEs of radial displacement at tower top, downwind displacement of blades, internal force at blade roots all decrease gradually, while the critical wind speed decreases firstly and then increases and finally decreases. The comprehensive analysis shows that the worst aerodynamic performance and wind-induced response of the wind turbine system are achieved when the yaw angle is $0^{\circ}$, whereas the worst stability performance and ultimate bearing capacity are achieved when the yaw angle is $45^{\circ}$.

Smart City Energy Inclusion, Towards Becoming a Better Place to Live

  • Cha, Sang-Ryong
    • World Technopolis Review
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2019
  • Where is a better place to live? In the coming era, this should be more than simply a livable place. It should be an adaptable place that has a flexible system adaptable to any new situation in terms of diversity. Customization and real-time operation are needed in order to realize this technologically. We expect a smart city to have a flexible system that applies technologies of self-monitoring and self-response, thereby being a promising city model towards being a better place to live. Energy demand and supply is a crucial issue concerning our expectations for the flexible system of a smart city because it is indispensable to comfortable living, especially city living. Although it may seem that energy diversification, such as the energy mix of a country, is a matter of overriding concern, the central point is the scale of place to build grids for realizing sustainable urban energy systems. A traditional hard energy path supported by huge centralized energy systems based on fossil and nuclear fuels on a national scale has already faced difficult problems, particularly in terms of energy flexibility/resilience. On the other hand, an alternative soft energy path consisting of small diversified energy systems based on renewable energy sources on a local scale has limitations regarding stability, variability, and supply potential despite the relatively light economic/technological burden that must be assumed to realize it. As another alternative, we can adopt a holonic path incorporating an alternative soft energy path with a traditional hard energy path complimentarily based on load management. This has a high affinity with the flexible system of a smart city. At a system level, the purpose of all of the paths mentioned above is not energy itself but the service it provides. If the expected energy service is fixed, the conclusive factor in choosing a more appropriate system is accessibility to the energy service. Accessibility refers to reliability and affordability; the former encompasses the level of energy self-sufficiency, and the latter encompasses the extent of energy saving. From this point of view, it seems that the small diversified energy systems of a soft energy path have a clear advantage over the huge centralized energy systems of a hard energy path. However, some insuperable limitations still remain, so it is reasonable to consider both energy systems continuing to coexist in a multiplexing energy system employing a holonic path to create and maintain reliable and affordable access to energy services that cover households'/enterprises' basic energy needs. If this is embodied in a smart city concept, this is nothing else but smart energy inclusion. In Japan, following the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, a trend towards small diversified energy systems of a soft energy path intensified in order to realize a nuclear-free society. As a result, the Government of Japan proclaimed in its Fifth Strategic Energy Plan that renewable energy must be the main source of power in Japan by 2050. Accordingly, Sony vowed that all the energy it uses would come from renewable sources by 2040. In this situation, it is expected that smart energy inclusion will be achieved by the Japanese version of a smart grid based on the concept of a minimum cost scheme and demand response.

Forecast and identifying factors on a double dip fertility rate for Korea (더블딥 출산율 요인 규명과 향후 추이)

  • Oh, Jinho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.463-483
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    • 2019
  • Since 2000, Korea's total fertility rate (TFR) has been different from that of Japan, Germany, and France where irreversible constants do not change easily in the fertility rate increasing or decreasing phase. It also showed a gradual increase from the minimum fertility level 1.08 in 2005 to 1.23 in 2015, which dropped to 1.17 in 2016, to 1.05 in 2017 and to 0.98 in 2018. This is similar to a double dip in the economic status of a recession. This paper investigates such a TFR increase and decrease factor that predicts the number of births affecting TFR, examines trends in the proportion of married and marital fertility rate broken down by TFR decomposition method. We also examined how these changes affect the change in TFR. According to the results, the number of births is estimated to be between 320 and 330 thousand in 2018, 300 thousand in 2020, 230 and 240 thousand in 2025. The proportion of married is steadily decreasing from 1981 to 2025, and the marital fertility rate is predicted to decline until 2002, then increase from 2003 to 2016 and decrease from 2017 to 2025. Finally, the trend of TFR in terms of number of births, TFR decomposition and statistical model is expected to show 0.98 in 2018, 0.93 to 1.11 in 2020 and 0.76 to 1.08 in 2025.

A Guideline for Identifying Blockchain Applications in Organizations (기업에서 요구되는 블록체인 애플리케이션 탐색을 위한 가이드라인)

  • Namn, Su Hyeon
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.83-101
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    • 2019
  • Blockchain is considered as an innovative technology along with Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, and Internet of Things. However, since the inception of the genesis of blockchain technology, the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, the technology is not utilized widely, not let alone disruptive applications. Most of the blockchain research deals with the cryptocurrency, general descriptions of the technology such as trend, outlook of the technology, explanation of component technology, and so on. There are no killer applications like Facebook or Google, of course. Reflecting on the slow adoption by businesses, we wanted know about the current status of the research on blockchain in Korea. The main purpose of this paper is to help business practitioners to identify the application of blockchain to enhance the competitiveness of their organization. To do that, we first use the framework by Iansiti et al (2017) and categorize the blockchain related articles published in Korea according to the framework. This is to provide a benchmark or cases of other organizations' adoption of blockchain technology. Second, based on the value proposition of blockchain applications, we suggest evolutionary paths for adopting them. Third, from the demand pull perspective of technology adoption for innovation, we propose applicable areas where blockchain applications can be introduced. Fourth, we use the value chain model to find out the appropriate domains of blockchain applications in the corporate value chains. And the five competitive forces models is adopted to find ways of lowering the power of forces by incorporating blockchain technology.

A Study on the Effectiveness of Wind Corridor Construction forImproving Urban Thermal Environment: A Case study of Changwon, South Korea (도시 열환경 개선을 위한 취약지역 선정 및 바람길 조성 방안: 창원시를 대상으로)

  • Kim, Jong-Sung;Kang, Jung-Eun
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.187-202
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    • 2021
  • This study examined the effectiveness of wind corridor construction by analyzing the thermal environment, cold air generation, ventilation, and geographical characteristics to improve urban thermal environment and establish the basis for specialized strategy in Changwon-si, Gyeongsangnam-do. Using spatial analysis and remote sensing techniques, surface temperature, land cover and land use, wind field, and slope were measured and through this, a wind corridor analysis model was constructed. As a result of the analysis as of 2020, Changwon-si generally has land cover characteristics that are advantageous for the generation of cold air, but the temperature in most urban areas is the highest, and the temperature in areas such as north Changwon area, Jinbukmyeon, Ung-dong, and Ungcheon-dong are relatively high. There was a typical trend of high average wind speed in mountain regions and low average wind speed in urban areas. Accordingly, the north Changwon area, the former Changwon downtown area, the Hogye-ri and Pyeongseong-ri areas, and the Changpo Bay area are derived as vulnerable areas to thermal environment, and various measures to reduce temperature and improve air quality that the inflow of cold air into the area considering the characteristics of each area and securing wind ventilation between the surrounding mountains, reservoirs, and park areas were proposed.

The Impacts of the Service Quality of Coffee Shop Adapting the CoffeeSERV on Customer's Perceived Value, Customer Satisfaction, Behavioral Intention: Focusing on Regulatory Focus Theory (CoffeeSERV측정모형을 활용한 커피전문점 서비스품질의 가치지각, 고객만족, 행동의도의 영향관계 연구: 조절초점동기의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • KANG, Hwa-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Franchise Management
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.37-52
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - This study examined the relationship between service quality, perceived value, customer satisfaction and behavioral intention of coffee shop using CoffeeSERV scale. In this model, CoffeeSERV scale consists of fundamental characteristics, physical environment, confidence, beverage characteristics, and representation factors. In particular, this study tried to demonstrate the moderating effect of customer's regulatory focus orientation among in the relationships between service quality, perceived value, customer satisfaction and behavioral intention. Research design, data, and methodology - This study intends to expand the existing service quality research by using the coffee shop service quality measurement tool developed by domestic researchers. I wanted to find some implications for the trend. In particular, this study applied the regulatory focus theory to identify individual differences of customers regulatory focusing motivation. In order to verify several hypotheses, the data were 227 college students and analyzed with SPSS/PC 21.0 and SmartPLS 3 program. The moderating role of customer's regulatory focusing motivation was tested using multi-group analysis with SmartPLS 3 program. Results - The resutls are as follows. First, the fundamental characteristic factors only had a significant influence on the utilitarian value perception, but in the hedonic value perception, all other service factors except for the beverage characteristic had a statistically significant effect. Second, utilitarian and hedonic value had significant effects on customer satisfaction. Third, customer satisfaction had a significant effect on behavioral intention. Finally, the regulatory focus orientation played a moderating role in the relationship between beverage characteristic - utilitarian value, representation - utilitarian value, fundamental characteristic - hedonic value, physical environment - hedonic value, confidence - hedonic value, and utilitarian value - behavioral intention. Conclusions - The results of this study show that the various service quality factors that make up the CoffeeSERV scale have different effects on utilitarian and hedonic value. This means that perceived benefits from product and service experience have different impacts on the customer's experience. Therefore, marketers should identify the impacts of service quality dimension that customers who use coffee shops consider important, understand the impact process of these quality factors on experience value, customer satisfaction, and behavioral intention, and allocate limited marketing budget. The results also show that it is possible to establish differentiatied response strategies using customer's regulatory focus orientation to find ways to enhance utlitarian and hedonic value, customer satisfaction, and behavioral intention using various Coffeeshop service quality factors. At the end of this paper, some limitations and future research directions were suggested.

A Study on the Ideology Education of Children during the Asian Pacific War (아시아태평양전쟁기 아동의 사상교육에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Hee-Ju;Sung, Yun-A
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.12
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    • pp.225-232
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    • 2020
  • In This paper examines how "Kamishibai" was used for ideological education of children during the war. "Kamishibai" was proposed by the Ministry of Education as a methodology to "cultivate children's right concentricity. In particular, , which was produced based on a true story, highlights the father's love sent to children by obtaining chocolate wrappers from comrades, and the children's envy for chocolate. Kazuo's interview, saying, "I will succeed my father," showed that he has a continuous personality that comes with another sacrifice. After the Sino-Japanese War, the war situation intensified, and in 1940, a new edict decided to enact the "Army Support Corps". This is a measure to select eligible youth applicants from 15 to 17 years of age, after training for 4 years, and then appoint them to aviation soldiers and sergeants. This is a legal maintenance that can be put into the battlefield at any time according to the trend of the war. Just as Kazuo, a real character in "Chocolate and Soldiers", also became a "boy flight soldier" after his father's death, flying airplanes to boys at the time was also a dream that Japan's great citizens should have. In the , it is suggested that "the father enshrined in Yasukuni" is a great person, and that "I" will also grow and become a "good citizen". In particular, the two brothers in the work show the value of eternal sacrifices in Yasukuni as a typical model of the "great people".

Relationship between Design Characteristics, Relationship Quality, and Customer Loyalty of the Mobile Game User Community (모바일게임 유저커뮤니티의 설계특성, 관계품질, 고객충성도와의 관계)

  • Min, Taeki;Oh, Segu
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.94-104
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    • 2021
  • It is no longer special for the gaming industry to provide a community to promote their games. Much prior research related to the community also focuses on the spread of community influence and its importance. In particular, the user community in the gaming industry is having a big impact on the company's revenue creation beyond the simple level of information provision and promotion of friendship. Therefore, providing a community at the same time as the game is released is becoming a common trend in the gaming industry This study attempted to explore factors influencing the design of more effective communities under the assumption that the user community will influence the loyalty of mobile games. The design elements of the community suggested in this study are the provision of interaction tools between users, the provision of information, and communication between the game maker and the users. This study aims to confirm that these design factors affect customer loyalty by reinforcing user empathy and trust in the game within the user community. After collecting data from 251 users active in the mobile game user community, the model presented in this study was empirically analyzed. As a result, the design elements of the game community suggested in this study were found to affect customer loyalty by strengthening the empathy for the game and the trust in the game developer.