• 제목/요약/키워드: Transition prediction

검색결과 243건 처리시간 0.022초

이동요인별 시·공간적 인구이동 특성을 고려한 인구분포 예측: 마르코프 연쇄 모형을 활용하여 (A Markov Chain Model for Population Distribution Prediction Considering Spatio-Temporal Characteristics by Migration Factors)

  • 박소현;이금숙
    • 한국경제지리학회지
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    • 제22권3호
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    • pp.351-365
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구의 목적은 주요 이동요인별 인구이동 및 인구분포의 시공간적 특징을 분석하고 장래 지역별 인구분포의 변화를 예측하고 전망하는 것이다. 이를 위해 직업, 가족, 주택, 교육 등 주요 이동요인별 거주지 변화로 나타나는 지역별 인구이동의 추이를 파악하고, 장래 지역별 인구 유출입에 의한 인구분포의 변화를 추정하는 예측 시뮬레이션을 진행한다. 분석결과, 거주지를 변경함에 있어 대도시지역과 시 단위 중심의 지리적 이동이 나타나고 있으며 대도시와 시 단위 내에서도 지역별 인구 유출입에 영향을 미치는 주요 이동요인별 구성 비율은 각기 상이하게 나타난다. 또한 이동요인별 시군구별 추이확률과 상태확률을 토대로 6단계-정상 마르코프 연쇄 프로세스를 진행한 결과, 각 이동요인에 따라 장래 시군구별 인구분포의 변화 정도도 차이가 나타날 것으로 추정된다. 본 연구에서 제시하는 방법론과 분석결과는 특히 인구감소로 지방소멸이 우려되는 지역에서 인구의 유입요인은 강화하고 유출요인은 개선하는 지역 맞춤형 인구 및 각종 정책을 계획하고 마련하는데 활용될 수 있다.

동적기계분석장치를 이용한 탄소섬유/에폭시 복합재의 장기 성능 예측 (Long-Term Performance Prediction of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composites Using Dynamic Mechanical Analyzer)

  • 차재호;윤성호
    • Composites Research
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    • 제32권1호
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    • pp.78-84
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구에서는 동적기계분석장치(dynamic mechanical analysis, DMA)와 시간-온도 중첩법(time-temperature superposition, TTS)을 이용하여 탄소섬유/에폭시 복합재의 장기 성능을 예측하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 단일 진동수 시험, 다중 진동수 시험, 크리프 TTS 시험을 수행하였다. 단일 진동수(single-frequency) 시험과 다중 진동수(multi-frequency) 시험에서는 $-30^{\circ}C$에서 $240^{\circ}C$까지 $2^{\circ}C/min$로 온도를 상승시키면서 $20{\mu}m$ 진폭의 사인(sine) 파형의 하중을 가하였으며 다중 진동수 시험에 적용된 진동수는 0.316, 1, 3.16, 10, 31.6 Hz이다. 크리프 TTS 시험에서는 $-30^{\circ}C$에서 $230^{\circ}C$까지 $10^{\circ}C$마다 15 MPa의 응력을 10분 동안 가하였다. 단일 진동수 시험을 통해 유리전이온도를 구하였으며 다중 진동수 시험을 통해 진동수 별 유리전이온도에서 활성화 에너지와 온도 별 저장탄성계수 선도를 구하였다. 또한 아레니우스 식(Arrhenius equation)을 통해 얻은 이동 인자를 적용하여 기준 온도에 대한 마스터 선도를 얻었다. 또한 크리프 TTS 시험을 통해서는 크리프 컴플라이언스 선도를 구하고 직접 이동 기법을 이용하여 구한 이동 인자를 적용하여 기준 온도에 대한 마스터 선도도 얻었다. 이와 같은 과정을 통해 얻은 마스터 선도를 이용하면 주어진 환경 조건에 대한 탄소섬유강화 복합재의 장기 성능을 예측할 수 있다.

주택수와 인구증가 변화를 반영한 지역별 부동산 시장 예측 (Prediction of the Real Estate Market by Region Reflecting the Changes in the Number of Houses and Population)

  • 배영민
    • 한국융합학회논문지
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    • 제12권4호
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    • pp.229-236
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    • 2021
  • 인구 증감과 주택공급의 변화를 반영하여 지역별 주택 수급 예측에 대한 중·장기적인 연구는 부족하였다. 본 연구에서는 최근 35년간 인구 1,000 명당 주택 수, 지역별 인구 변화율 그리고 향후 예측되는 지역별 인구증가 예측율을 반영하여 부동산 시장의 수요와 공급 측면에서 지역별 주택수 공급과 수요에 대하여 마코프 체인 모형의 전이확률을 적용하여 중·장기적인 지역별 주택수를 확인한다. 모형 수행결과, 지역별 부동산 시장은 경기, 인천, 서울 등 수도권에 대한 주택공급은 지역별 인구변화를 고려할 때 상당기간 부족할 것으로 예상되며 시간이 지나면서 다른 지역은 전국평균 주택수에 수렴하는 경향을 통해 안정화 될 것으로 예측되었고 부동산 시장 안정을 위해서는 지역별 주택공급 차별화를 적극 적용할 필요가 있는 것으로 확인되었다. 이번 연구에서 제시된 방법에 대해 실용적으로 사용될 수 있는 점과 지역별 인구증감 예측을 반영한 지역별 부동산 시장의 중·장기적인 방향성을 확인한다는 점에서 의미를 기대할 수 있다.

서포트 벡터 머신을 이용한 심폐소생술 변이의 변화에 따른 제세동 성공률 분석 (Analysis of the Likelihood of Successful Defibrillation as a Change of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Transition using Support Vector Machine)

  • 장승진;황성오;이현숙;윤영로
    • 대한의용생체공학회:의공학회지
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    • 제28권4호
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    • pp.556-568
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    • 2007
  • Unsatisfied results of return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) estimates were caused by the fact that the predictability of the predictors was insufficient. This unmet estimate of the predictors may be affected by transitional events due to behaviors which occur during cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). We thus hypothesized that the discrepancy of ROSC estimates found in statistical characteristics due to transitional CPR events, may affect the performance of the predictors, and that the performance of the classifier dichotomizing between ROSC and No-ROSC might be different during CPR. In a canine model (n=18) of prolonged ventricular fibrillation (VF), standard CPR was provided with administration of two doses of epinephrine 0 min or 3 min later of the onset of CPR. For the analysis of the likelihood of a successful defibrillation during CPR, Support Vector Classification was adopted to evaluate statistical peculiarity combining time and frequency based predictors: median frequency, frequency band-limited power spectrum, mean segment amplitude, and zero crossing rates. The worst predictable period showed below about 1 min after the onset of CPR, and the best predictable period could be observed from about 1.5 min later of the administering epinephrine through 2.0-2.2 min. As hypothesized, the discrepancy of statistical characteristics of the predictors was reflected in the differences of the classification performance during CPR. These results represent a major improvement in defibrillation prediction can be achieved by a specific timing of the analysis, as a change in CPR transition.

Percolation Approach to the Morphology of Rigid-Flexible Block Copolymer on Gas Permeability

  • 박호범;하성룡;이영무
    • 한국막학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국막학회 1997년도 추계 총회 및 학술발표회
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    • pp.69-70
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    • 1997
  • Polyimides and related polymers, when synthesized from aromatic monomers, have generally rigid chain structures resulting in a low gas permeability. The rigidity of polymer chains reduces the segmental motion of chains and works as a good barrier against gas transport. To overcome the limit of use as materials of gas separation membranes due to low gas permeability, block copolymers with the incorporation of flexible segments like siloxane linkage and ether linkage have been studied. These block copolymers have microphase-separated structures composed of microdomains of flexible poly(dimethylsiloxane) or polyether segments and of rigid polyimides segments. In case of rigid-flexible block copolymers, the characteristics of both phases for gas permeation are of great difference. The permeation of gas molecules occurs favorably through microdomains of flexible segments, whereas those of rigid segments hinder the permeation of gas molecules. Accordingly the increase of content of flexible segments in a rigid polymer matrix will increase the gas permeability of the membrane linearly. However, this prediction does not satisfy enough many experimental results and in particular the drastic increase of the permeability is observed in a certain volume fraction. It was proposed that the gas transport mechanism is dominated by diffusion rather than gas solubility in a certain content of flexible phase if solution-diffusion mechanism is adopted. However, the transition from solubility-dependent to diffusion-dependent cannot be explained by the understanding of mechanism itself. Therefore, we consider an effective chemical path which permeable phase can form in a microheterogenous medium, and percolation concept is introduced to describe the permeability transition at near threshold where for the first time a percolation path occurs. The volume fraction of both phases is defined as V$_{\alpha}$ and V$_{\beta}$ in block copolymers, and the volume of $\beta$ phase in the threshold forming geometrically a traversing channel is defined as V$_{\betac}$. The formation mechanism of shortest chemical channel is schematically depicted in Fig. 1.

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STACIR/AW 410SQmm 가공송전선의 경년열화와 이도거동(III) (Sag Behavior of STACIR/AW 410SQmm Overhead Conductor in accordance with the Aging)

  • 김상수;김병걸;신구용;이동일;민병욱
    • 한국전기전자재료학회논문지
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.280-286
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    • 2006
  • As a way to expand electric capacity in conductor with electric power demand, STACIR/AW (Super Thermal-resistant Aluminum-alloy Conductors Aluminum-clad Invar-Reinforced) conductor which has high electric current and heat resistance characteristics have been developed. STACIR/AW power line is mechanical composite wire composed of steel cores for dip control and aluminum conductors for sending electric current. Recently, to ensure stable operation and prediction of wire life span of STACIR/AW conductor, a heat property of STACIR/AW conductor have been investigated. In the present work, a change of essential property with long term-heat exposure of STACIR/AW conductor and its structure material, INVAR wire and Al conductor, have been investigated. INVAR/AW is approximately $3.2\;{\mu}m/m^{\circ}C$. thermal expansion coefficient of INVAR/AW wire increases with time of heat exposure. the thermal expansion coefficient of INVAR/AW is markedly influenced by heat and mechanical treatment. creep rate(0.242) of STACIR/AW $410\;mm^2$ conductor at room temperature is much higher than that(0.022) at $210\;^{\circ}C$ STACIR/AW $410\;mm^2$ conductor has minimum creep rate at operating temperature. To lower creep rate with increase temperature is more unique characteristics in STACIR/AW. It is expected that STACIR/AW turned its tension to INVAR/AW at the transition temperature. at room temperature, the tension apportionment of INVAR/AW in STACIR/AW is about $50\;\%$. but whole tension of STACIR/AW is placed on the INVAR/AW alone of core metal above transition temperature.

폴리스티렌 막에서 $CO_2$의 수착과 확산 (Sorption and Diffusion of Carbon Dioxide in Polystyrene Membrane)

  • Kim, You-Whan;Cho, Du-Hyun;Bae, Seong-Youl;Kumaawa, Hidehiro
    • 멤브레인
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    • 제3권2호
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    • pp.79-82
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    • 1993
  • 유리전이온도가 $95^{\circ}C$인 폴리스티렌 균질막에서 $CO_2$의 수착과 투과실험을 온도는 $60^{\circ}C$C, 수착실험은 1.6 MPa 범위, 투과실험은 2.5 MPa 범위 내에서 각각 행하였다. 낮은 기체압력하에서는 수착등온선이 dual-mode sorption model에 일치하였으나 1.3 MPa 이상에서는 직선이었고, 직선부분은 원점까지 외삽되었다. 평균투과계수의 압력의존성은 dual-mode mobility model로부터 위로 편기되었다. 수착등온선으로부터 폴리스티렌 막은 1.3 MPa의 기체압력에서 수착된 $CO_2$의 가소화거동에 의해서 유리전이가 일어난다는 것을 알았고, 이는 평균투과계수의 증가와 일치하였다.

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In-situ Raman Spectroscopic Study of Nickel-base Alloys in Nuclear Power Plants and Its Implications to SCC

  • Kim, Ji Hyun;Bahn, Chi Bum;Hwang, Il Soon
    • Corrosion Science and Technology
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    • 제3권5호
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    • pp.198-208
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    • 2004
  • Although there has been no general agreement on the mechanism of primary water stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) as one of major degradation modes of Ni-base alloys in pressurized water reactors (PWR's), common postulation derived from previous studies is that the damage to the alloy substrate can be related to mass transport characteristics and/or repair properties of overlaid oxide film. Recently, it was shown that the oxide film structure and PWSCC initiation time as well as crack growth rate were systematically varied as a function of dissolved hydrogen concentration in high temperature water, supporting the postulation. In order to understand how the oxide film composition can vary with water chemistry, this study was conducted to characterize oxide films on Alloy 600 by an in-situ Raman spectroscopy. Based on both experimental and thermodynamic prediction results, Ni/NiO thermodynamic equilibrium condition was defined as a function of electrochemical potential and temperature. The results agree well with Attanasio et al.'s data by contact electrical resistance measurements. The anomalously high PWSCC growth rate consistently observed in the vicinity of Ni/NiO equilibrium is then attributed to weak thermodynamic stability of NiO. Redox-induced phase transition between Ni metal and NiO may undermine the integrity of NiO and enhance presumably the percolation of oxidizing environment through the oxide film, especially along grain boundaries. The redox-induced grain boundary oxide degradation mechanism has been postulated and will be tested by using the in-situ Raman facility.

액정 p-Azoxyanisole의 열역학적 성질에 대한 이론적인 예측 (Theoretical Prediction of the Thermodynamic Properties of Liquid-Crystalline p-Azoxyanisole)

  • 도영규;전무식;이태규
    • 대한화학회지
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    • 제20권2호
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    • pp.118-128
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    • 1976
  • 액체에 대한 significant structure theory 와 상의 전이에 대한 Bragg-Williams근사를 사용하여 액정 화합물인 p-azoxyanisole의 열역학적 성질을 nematic phase와 isotropic phase의 온도범위에 걸쳐 계산하였다. Isotropic phase는 일반적인 액체로 보았으며 nematic phase는 액체적인 성질외에도 분자쌍극자의 배열에 의한 영향도 고려하였다. p-Azoxyanisole의 액체적인 성질은 significant structure theory로 기술하였으며 분자쌍극과 배열에 의한 영향은 Bragg-Williams 근사로써 고려하였다. 부피, 증기압, 정압비열, 열팽창계수, nematic-isotropic 전이점에서의 엔트로피 엔탈피 변화, 절대엔트로피, Helmholtz free energy등을 계산하여 실험치와 비교하였다.

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환경쟁점분석 수업이 중학생의 의사 결정력에 미치는 효과 (The Effect of the Environmental Issue Analysis Instruction on the Decision Making Ability of Middle School Students)

  • 송선경;최돈형;백성혜;손연아
    • 한국환경교육학회지:환경교육
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.42-61
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    • 2007
  • This study investigated the effect of the environmental issue analysis instruction on the decision making ability of middle school students. A pretest-posttest control group design was employed. The participants for the research were 288 1st grade male students in middle school in Seoul, the environmental issue analysis lesson group consisted of 142 members and the non-environmental education group consisted of 146 members. The cognitive level of the students were divided into three groups-concrete, transition, formal-as the result of GALT test. Students take issue analysis lessons during 6 weeks, one lesson per a week. Students had studied through worksheets reconstructed and developed by researcher on basis of issue analysis suggested by Ramsey et al. (1997). The results of the research were followings: After lesson for environmental issue analysis, all of the students were improved in decision-making ability regardless of cognitive level (p<.05). Especially, decision-making ability of the transition group students was improved to a high degree. Scores of searching relevant information, generation of alternatives, identification of values for selection criteria, the evaluation of alternatives' merits and demerits, prediction of consequence were increased in experimental group (p<.05). But the ability of selection of alternatives according to value was not reached statistically meaningful improvement. The decision-making ability of the control group students was not improved but ability of selection of alternatives, the evaluation of consequence were increased (p<.05).

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