• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.18 no.2
• /
• pp.163-186
• /
• 2014

This paper argues that the formation of regional integration frameworks can be best understood as a dominant state's attempt to create a preferred regional framework in which it can exercise exclusive influence. In this context, it is important to observe not only which countries are included in a regional framework, but also which countries are excluded from it. For example, the distinct feature of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is its exclusion of China, and that of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is its exclusion of the United States (US). An exclusion of a particular country does not mean that the excluded country will perpetually remain outside the framework. In fact, TPP may someday include China, resulting from a policy of the US "engaging" or "socializing" China rather than "balancing" against it. However, the first step of such a policy is to establish a regional framework from which the target country of engagement is excluded.

• Journal of the Korea society of information convergence
• /
• v.6 no.1
• /
• pp.25-36
• /
• 2013

This study examined the impact of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and related countries background why they have to decide to join this trend after FTA. In addtion, this paper has the purpose to call attention for Korea's benefit of TPP.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.41 no.4
• /
• pp.293-313
• /
• 2016

In the East Asian region, the advancement of trade networks is being facilitated, which turns out that economic integration across borders is being advanced due to FTA expansion, freedom of business activity growing through the reform of regulatory system in each country, and the processing of division of labor between processes across borders. Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP), which is a U.S. led multilateral FTA, was signed on February 4 2016 in Auckland, New Zealand by 12 countries, by which changes in the East Asia Trade Network are also expected. For this reason, this study examined the impact that TPP would have on East Asia Trade Network. According to the result of this study, it was determined that TPP, as the regulation and system which will lead globalization of the supply chain, will change Supply Chain structure and result in a positive effect on Value Chain. This will have a significant impact on the East Asian trade network, and connect to enhanced competitiveness of participating enterprises. In addition, TPP seems to be the basis for realization of FTAAP(Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific) in the future, Therefore, Korea who has high Degree of Dependence upon Foreign Trade will have to pay make political effort to effectively deal with this changing trading environment in East Asia.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.343-384
• /
• 2017

We assess the outcomes for the negotiating parties in the Trans-Pacific Partnership if the remaining eleven parties go ahead with the agreement as negotiated without the United States, as compared to the outcomes under the original twelve-member agreement signed in October 2016. We find that the eleven-party agreement, now renamed as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), is a much smaller deal than the twelve-party one, but that some parties do better without the United States in the deal, in particular those in the Western Hemisphere - Canada, Mexico, Chile, and Peru. For the politically relevant medium term, the United States stands to be less well-off outside the TPP than inside. Since provisional deals can be in place for a long time, the results of this study suggest that the eleven parties are better off to implement the CPTPP, leaving aside the controversial governance elements, the implications of which for national interests are unclear and which, in any event, may be substantially affected by parallel bilateral negotiations between individual CPTPP parties and the United States.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.22 no.2
• /
• pp.177-215
• /
• 2018

Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his "America First" trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct "preference ordering" for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a "multi-track, multi-stage" approach to trade policy.

• International Commerce and Information Review
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.309-330
• /
• 2013

Trans-Pacific Partnership started as a small scale 4 countries regional trade agreement. It became a grand free trade agreement when the United States announced its participation and Japn considers to join. Korea still hasn't decided the stance however, considering the economic and political relationship with the United States and the impact of TPP, it looks like that Korea is going to join TPP. US led the TPP agreement is expected to be made based on the previous FTA agreements of the US. In the promising E-Commerce part, it is likely that the e-commerce leading US would suggest favorable agreement. If Korea joins the TPP, it's necessary to suggest what Korea wants and needs based on the previous KORUS FTA to promote Korean e-commerce for the future.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.333-359
• /
• 2013

Two mega-regional negotiations are changing the landscape of Asia Pacific trade policy: an Asian track centered on ASEAN (the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP), and a Trans-Pacific track centered on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) among 12 economies, including the United States, which Korea is expected to join. Modeling results suggest that both would generate substantial benefits for Korea and the global economy. From Korea's viewpoint, the agreements would establish new FTAs with China, Japan and smaller economies, improve the utilization of FTAs by permitting the regional cumulation of inputs, and help to upgrade some Korean FTAs to more rigorous standards. By participating in these agreements, Korea could also help to guide them toward inclusive, high-quality regional outcomes. As one of the region's most open and agile economies, Korea has a large stake in regional integration and would be well advised to pursue both tracks.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.279-309
• /
• 2016

The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a free trade agreement among 12 Pacific Rim countries whose joint gross domestic products (GDPs) account for 36 percent of world GDP and whose mutual trade accounts for approximately 24 percent of world trade. As for most proposed free trade agreements (FTAs), trade economists have provided ex ante computable general equilibrium (CGE) estimates to predict the trade, employment, and real per capita income effects of this agreement, such as ITC (2016). This paper-intended to complement these studies-examines the potential impacts of TPP beyond such traditional CGE estimates, taking a broader economic, governance, and historical perspective. First, we contrast these traditional CGE trade and welfare estimates that treat all firms within an industry as homogeneous with more recent CGE analyses that allow firms' productivities to be heterogeneous. We show that the latter models' trade predictions are much more consistent with ex post empirical evidence of average trade effects of FTAs. Second, empirical evidence now strongly confirms the existence of FTA "contagion." We review this evidence and show that predictive models of the evolution of FTAs indicate that the TPP should be formed. With China now having formed 12 FTAs and negotiating five new ones (including a sixteen member Asia-Pacific FTA), the United States would likely face considerable trade diversion without the TPP. Third, we examine empirical evidence on the likely further economic growth implications of FTAs by reducing firms' uncertainty over trade relations and trade policies. Fourth, we examine empirical evidence on the additional impact of FTAs on consolidating democratic institutions in countries. The TPP would likely help consolidate some of the less mature democracies. Fifth, we examine empirical evidence on the reductions of conflicts (and enhanced peace) between countries owing to the formations of FTAs. We conclude the paper noting that the potential net benefits to member countries of the proposed TPP extend well beyond the real income gains to households based upon traditional CGE models.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
• /
• v.22 no.9
• /
• pp.1271-1276
• /
• 2018

The CPTPP(Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) is a large-scale free trade agreement(FTA) in the Asia-Pacific region involving 11 remaining countries(Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei) since the withdrawal of the US TPP in January 2017, Although the economic size is smaller than the TPP, the CPTPP has 12.9% of the world GDP and 14.9% of the trade volume, meaning that another mega FTA is born. Local economic experts believe that Vietnam's stable economic growth rate and the CPTPP agreement will have a positive impact on Vietnam's stock market and M&A market in 2018. The experts usually expect it will be come into force in 2018 and not later than 2019. The CPTPP is also very likely to enter into force in 2019 with the aggressive attitude of the member countries, simplifying the entry into force of the agreement.

• East Asian Economic Review
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.311-338
• /
• 2016

In the race for establishing trading architecture consistent with new landscape of the global economy, the US is ahead of the game by concluding the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement with 11 countries. To make it reality, the ratification is essential. In the battle for ratification in the US, declining globalism confronts rising protectionism. This paper models the ratification process as contest between globalism and protectionism, and analyzes the optimal timing for ratification. Based on this framework, various ratification scenarios are analyzed. The paper argues less likelihood for the lame-duck session passage and more likelihood for prolonged and protracted delay, due to changing political dynamics and declining intellectual support for globalism. Hence, the future of Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement may prove different, compared to the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement, both of which were renegotiated and ratified eventually. Then, the US would lose the first move advantage. The paper also discusses strategic implications of delayed ratification on the evolution of trading architecture in East Asia.