• Title/Summary/Keyword: Traffic Flow Prediction

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A Case Study of Coastal Fog Event Causing Flight Cancellation and Traffic Accidents (항공기 결항과 연쇄 교통사고를 야기한 연안안개 사례 연구)

  • Kim, Young Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2017
  • A heavy foggy event accompanying with complex coastal fog was investigated in this study. This heavy foggy event occurred on FEB 11, 2015. Due to reduced visibility with this foggy event induced more than 100times serial traffic accidents over the Young-jong highway, and Flights from 04:30 AM to 10:00 AM were cancelled on Inchon International Airport. This heavy foggy event was occurred in synoptic and mesoscale environments but dense coastal fog were combined with a combination of sea fog, steam fog, and radiation fog. This kind of coastal fog can predicted by accurate analysis of the direction of the air flow, sea surface temperature(SST), and 925hPa isotherms from numerical weather prediction charts and real time analysis charts.

A Study on the Utilization of Site Noise Map for Environmental Impact Assessment around Landfill (매립지 주변 환경영향평가시 소음지도 활용연구)

  • Park, In-Sun;Park, Sang-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2005.11a
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    • pp.66-70
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    • 2005
  • Noise prediction are required as part of an environmental impact assessment. Prediction method that is used to domestic environmental impact assessment of construction site and industrial site is not applied work operation rate, work position, moving noise source, inner traffic flow, work type and height of noise source etc. The BS5228 methodology is used mainly for assessment of proposed open industrial sites(mineral extraction, landfill etc.), and larger long-term construction sites(typically for major infrastructure projects). also, estimation which consider various effect factor is possible.

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Nonlinear dynamic performance of long-span cable-stayed bridge under traffic and wind

  • Han, Wanshui;Ma, Lin;Cai, C.S.;Chen, Suren;Wu, Jun
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.249-274
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    • 2015
  • Long-span cable-stayed bridges exhibit some features which are more critical than typical long span bridges such as geometric and aerodynamic nonlinearities, higher probability of the presence of multiple vehicles on the bridge, and more significant influence of wind loads acting on the ultra high pylon and super long cables. A three-dimensional nonlinear fully-coupled analytical model is developed in this study to improve the dynamic performance prediction of long cable-stayed bridges under combined traffic and wind loads. The modified spectral representation method is introduced to simulate the fluctuating wind field of all the components of the whole bridge simultaneously with high accuracy and efficiency. Then, the aerostatic and aerodynamic wind forces acting on the whole bridge including the bridge deck, pylon, cables and even piers are all derived. The cellular automation method is applied to simulate the stochastic traffic flow which can reflect the real traffic properties on the long span bridge such as lane changing, acceleration, or deceleration. The dynamic interaction between vehicles and the bridge depends on both the geometrical and mechanical relationships between the wheels of vehicles and the contact points on the bridge deck. Nonlinear properties such as geometric nonlinearity and aerodynamic nonlinearity are fully considered. The equations of motion of the coupled wind-traffic-bridge system are derived and solved with a nonlinear separate iteration method which can considerably improve the calculation efficiency. A long cable-stayed bridge, Sutong Bridge across the Yangze River in China, is selected as a numerical example to demonstrate the dynamic interaction of the coupled system. The influences of the whole bridge wind field as well as the geometric and aerodynamic nonlinearities on the responses of the wind-traffic-bridge system are discussed.

A Study on the Noise Assessment of Specific Vehicles at Metropolitan Landfill Area Using Noise Map (소음지도를 이용한 특정차량의 소음평가)

  • Park, In-Sun;Park, Sang-Kyu
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.1064-1068
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    • 2007
  • Around metropolitan landfill area, specific vehicles such as garbage carrying trucks make noise problems and residents near landfill area organized to protest. However, it is difficult to distinguish the effect of noise of specific vehicles (ex: garbage trucks). In this study, noise map and CRTN were used to assess the noise from specific vehicles. Noise levels, which were predicted by using measured parameters such as traffic flow, traffic speed, composition of traffic for 1 year, were compared with measured results of noise level.

Expressway Travel Time Prediction Using K-Nearest Neighborhood (KNN 알고리즘을 활용한 고속도로 통행시간 예측)

  • Shin, Kangwon;Shim, Sangwoo;Choi, Keechoo;Kim, Soohee
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.1873-1879
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    • 2014
  • There are various methodologies to forecast the travel time using real-time data but the K-nearest neighborhood (KNN) method in general is regarded as the most one in forecasting when there are enough historical data. The objective of this study is to evaluate applicability of KNN method. In this study, real-time and historical data of toll collection system (TCS) traffic flow and the dedicated short range communication (DSRC) link travel time, and the historical path travel time data are used as input data for KNN approach. The proposed method investigates the path travel time which is the nearest to TCS traffic flow and DSRC link travel time from real-time and historical data, then it calculates the predicted path travel time using weight average method. The results show that accuracy increased when weighted value of DSRC link travel time increases. Moreover the trend of forecasted and real travel times are similar. In addition, the error in forecasted travel time could be further reduced when more historical data could be available in the future database.

Study on the Proper Separation Distance from Intersection to Bus Stop for Reducing Traffic Accidents (교통사고 감소를 위한 교차로에서 버스정류장간 적정 이격거리 산정 연구)

  • Eom, Daelyoung;Chae, HeeChul;Park, Wonil;Yun, llsoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2022
  • The location of the bus stop on urban roads should be installed at a point where it is convenient for users and the impact of bus stops on the traffic flow is minimized. However, the location of the bus stops is determined indiscriminately due to the lack of related research. Therefore, this study developed a traffic accident prediction model and calculated the proper separation distance for the bus stops through an optimization technique. The result of the study indicates that the bus stop can be installed in the form of a mid-block approximately 87 to 166 m away from the intersection in the road section. This result is valid if the number of main road lanes in the road section is 2 to 4 with a level of traffic from 1,000 to 3,000 v/h. In the section with 5 to 6 lanes, it is desirable to install a bus stop close to the intersection by about 42 to 97 m.

Multiple Period Forecasting of Motorway Traffic Volumes by Using Big Historical Data (대용량 이력자료를 활용한 다중시간대 고속도로 교통량 예측)

  • Chang, Hyun-ho;Yoon, Byoung-jo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2018
  • In motorway traffic flow control, the conventional way based on real-time response has been changed into advanced way based on proactive response. Future traffic conditions over multiple time intervals are crucial input data for advanced motorway traffic flow control. It is necessary to overcome the uncertainty of the future state in order for forecasting multiple-period traffic volumes, as the number of uncertainty concurrently increase when the forecasting horizon expands. In this vein, multi-interval forecasting of traffic volumes requires a viable approach to conquer future uncertainties successfully. In this paper, a forecasting model is proposed which effectively addresses the uncertainties of future state based on the behaviors of temporal evolution of traffic volume states that intrinsically exits in the big past data. The model selects the past states from the big past data based on the state evolution of current traffic volumes, and then the selected past states are employed for estimating future states. The model was also designed to be suitable for data management systems in practice. Test results demonstrated that the model can effectively overcome the uncertainties over multiple time periods and can generate very reliable predictions in term of prediction accuracy. Hence, it is indicated that the model can be mounted and utilized on advanced data management systems.

Development of a Freeway Travel Time Estimating and Forecasting Model using Traffic Volume (차량검지기 교통량 데이터를 이용한 고속도로 통행시간 추정 및 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 오세창;김명하;백용현
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.83-95
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    • 2003
  • This study aims to develop travel time estimation and prediction models on the freeway using measurements from vehicle detectors. In this study, we established a travel time estimation model using traffic volume which is a principle factor of traffic flow changes by reviewing existing travel time estimation techniques. As a result of goodness of fit test. in the normal traffic condition over 70km/h, RMSEP(Root Mean Square Error Proportion) from travel speed is lower than the proposed model, but the proposed model produce more reliable travel times than the other one in the congestion. Therefore in cases of congestion the model uses the method of calculating the delay time from excess link volumes from the in- and outflow and the vehicle speeds from detectors in the traffic situation at a speed of over 70km/h. We also conducted short term prediction of Kalman Filtering to forecast traffic condition and more accurate travel times using statistical model The results of evaluation showed that the lag time occurred between predicted travel time and estimated travel time but the RMSEP values of predicted travel time to observations are as 1ow as that of estimation.

A Study on Network Based Traffic Signal Optimization Using Traffic Prediction Data (교통예측자료 기반 Network 차원의 신호제어 최적화 방안)

  • Han, Jeong-hye;Lee, Seon-Ha;Cheon, Choon-Keun;Oh, Tae-ho;Kim, Eun-Ji
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.77-90
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    • 2015
  • An increasing number of vehicles is causing various traffic problems such as chronic congestion of highways and air pollution. Local governments have been managing traffic by constructing systems such as Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) and Advanced Traffic Management Systems (ATMS) to relieve such problems, but construction of an infrastructure-based traffic system is insufficient in resolving chronic traffic problems. A more sophisticated system with enhanced operational management capabilities added to the existing facilities is necessary at this point. As traffic patterns of the urban traffic flow is time-specific due to the different vehicle populations throughout the time of the day, a local network-wide signal operation plan that can manage such situation-specific traffic patterns is deemed to be necessary. Therefore, this study is conducted for the purpose of establishment of a plan for contextual signal control management through signal optimization at the network level after setting the Frame Signal in accordance to the traffic patterns gathered from the short-term traffic forecast data as a means to mitigate the problems with existing standardized signal operations.

A Study on Predictive Traffic Information Using Cloud Route Search (클라우드 경로탐색을 이용한 미래 교통정보 예측 방법)

  • Jun Hyun, Kim;Kee Wook, Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.287-296
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    • 2015
  • Recent navigation systems provide quick guide services, based on processing real-time traffic information and past traffic information by applying predictable pattern for traffic information. However, the current pattern for traffic information predicts traffic information by processing past information that it presents an inaccuracy problem in particular circumstances(accidents and weather). So, this study presented a more precise predictive traffic information system than historical traffic data first by analyzing route search data which the drivers ask in real time for the quickest way then by grasping traffic congestion levels of the route in which future drivers are supposed to locate. First results of this study, the congested route from Yang Jae to Mapo, the analysis result shows that the accuracy of the weighted value of speed of existing commonly congested road registered an error rate of 3km/h to 18km/h, however, after applying the real predictive traffic information of this study the error rate registered only 1km/h to 5km/h. Second, in terms of quality of route as compared to the existing route which allowed for an earlier arrival to the destination up to a maximum of 9 minutes and an average of up to 3 minutes that the reliability of predictable results has been secured. Third, new method allows for the prediction of congested levels and deduces results of route searches that avoid possibly congested routes and to reflect accurate real-time data in comparison with existing route searches. Therefore, this study enabled not only the predictable gathering of information regarding traffic density through route searches, but it also made real-time quick route searches based on this mechanism that convinced that this new method will contribute to diffusing future traffic flow.