• Title/Summary/Keyword: Traffic Accident Prediction

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A Traffic Hazard Prediction Algorithm for Vehicle Safety Communications on a highway (고속도로에서 차량 안전 통신을 위한 교통사고 위험 예측 알고리즘)

  • Oh, Sang Yeob
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.10 no.9
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    • pp.319-324
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    • 2012
  • Vehicle safety communications is one among the important technologies in order to protect a car accident. For this, many protocols forwarding a safe message have studied to protect a chain-reaction collision when a car accident occurs. most of these protocols assume that the time of generating a safe message is the same as an accident's. If a node predicts some traffic hazard and forwards a safe message, a driver can response some action quickly. So, In this paper, we proposes a traffic hazard prediction algorithm using the communication technique. As a result, we show that the frame reception success rate of using our algorithm to the previous protocol improved about 4~5%.

Development of Traffic Accident Prediction Models Considering Variations of the Future Volume in Urban Areas (신설 도시부 도로의 장래 교통량 변화를 반영한 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Lee, Soo-Beom;Hong, Da-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.3 s.81
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    • pp.125-136
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    • 2005
  • The current traffic accident reduction procedure in economic feasibility study does not consider the characteristics of road and V/C ratio. For solving this problem, this paper suggests methods to be able to evaluate safety of each road in construction and improvement through developing accident Prediction model in reflecting V/C ratio Per road types and traffic characters. In this paper as primary process, model is made by tke object of urban roads. Most of all, factor effecting on accident relying on road types is selected. At this point, selecting criteria chooses data obtained from road planning procedure, traffic volume, existence or non-existence of median barrier, and the number of crossing point, of connecting road. and of traffic signals. As a result of analyzing between each factor and accident. all appear to have relatives at a significant level of statistics. In this research, models are classified as 4-categorized classes according to roads and V/C ratio and each of models draws accident predicting model through Poisson regression along with verifying real situation data. The results of verifying models come out relatively satisfactory estimation against real traffic data. In this paper, traffic accident prediction is possible caused by road's physical characters by developing accident predicting model per road types resulted in V/C ratio and this result is inferred to be used on predicting accident cost when road construction and improvement are performed. Because data using this paper are limited in only province of Jeollabuk-Do, this paper has a limitation of revealing standards of all regions (nation).

Comparative Study of PSO-ANN in Estimating Traffic Accident Severity

  • Md. Ashikuzzaman;Wasim Akram;Md. Mydul Islam Anik;Taskeed Jabid;Mahamudul Hasan;Md. Sawkat Ali
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.23 no.8
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    • pp.95-100
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    • 2023
  • Due to Traffic accidents people faces health and economical casualties around the world. As the population increases vehicles on road increase which leads to congestion in cities. Congestion can lead to increasing accident risks due to the expansion in transportation systems. Modern cities are adopting various technologies to minimize traffic accidents by predicting mathematically. Traffic accidents cause economical casualties and potential death. Therefore, to ensure people's safety, the concept of the smart city makes sense. In a smart city, traffic accident factors like road condition, light condition, weather condition etcetera are important to consider to predict traffic accident severity. Several machine learning models can significantly be employed to determine and predict traffic accident severity. This research paper illustrated the performance of a hybridized neural network and compared it with other machine learning models in order to measure the accuracy of predicting traffic accident severity. Dataset of city Leeds, UK is being used to train and test the model. Then the results are being compared with each other. Particle Swarm optimization with artificial neural network (PSO-ANN) gave promising results compared to other machine learning models like Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, Nearest Centroid, K Nearest Neighbor Classification. PSO- ANN model can be adopted in the transportation system to counter traffic accident issues. The nearest centroid model gave the lowest accuracy score whereas PSO-ANN gave the highest accuracy score. All the test results and findings obtained in our study can provide valuable information on reducing traffic accidents.

Prevention System for Real Time Traffic Accident (실시간 교통사고 예방 시스템)

  • Hong You-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.11 no.4 s.42
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2006
  • In order to reduce traffic accidents, many researchers studied a traffic accident model. The Cause of traffic accidents is usually the mis calculation of traffic signals or bad traffic intersection design. Therefore, to analyse the cause of traffic accidents, it takes effort. This paper, it calculates the optimal safe car speed considering intersection conditions and weather conditions. It will recommend calculation of 1/3 in vehicle speed when there are rainy days and snow days. But the problem is that it will always display the same speed limit when whether conditions change. In order to solve these problems, in this paper, it is proposed the calculation of optimal safety speed algorithm uses weather conditions and road conditions. Computer simulations is prove that it computes the traffic speed limit correctly, which proposed considering intelligent traffic accident prediction algorithms.

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Classification and Prediction of Highway Accident Characteristics Using Vehicle Black Box Data (블랙박스 영상 기반 고속도로 사고유형 분류 및 사고 심각도 예측 평가)

  • Junhan Cho;Sungjun Lee;Seongmin Park;Juneyoung Park
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.132-145
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    • 2022
  • This study was based on the black box images of traffic accidents on highways, cluster analysis and prediction model comparisons were carried out. As analysis data, vehicle driving behavior and road surface conditions that can grasp road and traffic conditions just before the accident were used as explanatory variables. Considering that traffic accident data is affected by many factors, cluster analysis reflecting data heterogeneity is used. Each cluster classified by cluster analysis was divided based on the ratio of the severity level of the accident, and then an accident prediction evaluation was performed. As a result of applying the Logit model, the accident prediction model showed excellent predictive ability when classifying groups by cluster analysis and predicting them rather than analyzing the entire data. It is judged that it is more effective to predict accidents by reflecting the characteristics of accidents by group and the severity of accidents. In addition, it was found that a collision accident during stopping such as a secondary accident and a side collision accident during lane change act as important driving behavior variables.

Comparison of Association Rule Learning and Subgroup Discovery for Mining Traffic Accident Data (교통사고 데이터의 마이닝을 위한 연관규칙 학습기법과 서브그룹 발견기법의 비교)

  • Kim, Jeongmin;Ryu, Kwang Ryel
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2015
  • Traffic accident is one of the major cause of death worldwide for the last several decades. According to the statistics of world health organization, approximately 1.24 million deaths occurred on the world's roads in 2010. In order to reduce future traffic accident, multipronged approaches have been adopted including traffic regulations, injury-reducing technologies, driving training program and so on. Records on traffic accidents are generated and maintained for this purpose. To make these records meaningful and effective, it is necessary to analyze relationship between traffic accident and related factors including vehicle design, road design, weather, driver behavior etc. Insight derived from these analysis can be used for accident prevention approaches. Traffic accident data mining is an activity to find useful knowledges about such relationship that is not well-known and user may interested in it. Many studies about mining accident data have been reported over the past two decades. Most of studies mainly focused on predict risk of accident using accident related factors. Supervised learning methods like decision tree, logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, neural network are used for these prediction. However, derived prediction model from these algorithms are too complex to understand for human itself because the main purpose of these algorithms are prediction, not explanation of the data. Some of studies use unsupervised clustering algorithm to dividing the data into several groups, but derived group itself is still not easy to understand for human, so it is necessary to do some additional analytic works. Rule based learning methods are adequate when we want to derive comprehensive form of knowledge about the target domain. It derives a set of if-then rules that represent relationship between the target feature with other features. Rules are fairly easy for human to understand its meaning therefore it can help provide insight and comprehensible results for human. Association rule learning methods and subgroup discovery methods are representing rule based learning methods for descriptive task. These two algorithms have been used in a wide range of area from transaction analysis, accident data analysis, detection of statistically significant patient risk groups, discovering key person in social communities and so on. We use both the association rule learning method and the subgroup discovery method to discover useful patterns from a traffic accident dataset consisting of many features including profile of driver, location of accident, types of accident, information of vehicle, violation of regulation and so on. The association rule learning method, which is one of the unsupervised learning methods, searches for frequent item sets from the data and translates them into rules. In contrast, the subgroup discovery method is a kind of supervised learning method that discovers rules of user specified concepts satisfying certain degree of generality and unusualness. Depending on what aspect of the data we are focusing our attention to, we may combine different multiple relevant features of interest to make a synthetic target feature, and give it to the rule learning algorithms. After a set of rules is derived, some postprocessing steps are taken to make the ruleset more compact and easier to understand by removing some uninteresting or redundant rules. We conducted a set of experiments of mining our traffic accident data in both unsupervised mode and supervised mode for comparison of these rule based learning algorithms. Experiments with the traffic accident data reveals that the association rule learning, in its pure unsupervised mode, can discover some hidden relationship among the features. Under supervised learning setting with combinatorial target feature, however, the subgroup discovery method finds good rules much more easily than the association rule learning method that requires a lot of efforts to tune the parameters.

A Study on Effectiveness Analysis and Development of an Accident Prediction Model of Point-to-Point Speed Enforcement System (구간단속장비 설치 효과 분석 및 사고예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Da Ye;Lee, Ho Won;Hong, Kyung Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.144-152
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    • 2019
  • According to the National Police Agency, point-to-point speed enforcement system is being installed and operated in 97 sections across the country. It is more effective than other enforcement systems in terms of stabilizing the traffic flow and inhibiting the kangaroo effect. But it is only 5.1% of the total enforcement systems. The National Police Agency is also aware that its operation ratio is very low and it is necessary to expand point-to-point speed enforcement system. Hence, this study aims to provide the expansion basis of the point-to-point speed enforcement operation through analysis of the quantitative effects and development the accident prediction model. Firstly, this study analyzed the effectiveness of point-to-point speed enforcement system. Naive before-after study and comparison group method(C-G Method) were used as methodologies of analyzing the effectiveness. The result of using the naive before-after study was significant. Total accidents, EPDOs and casualty crashes decreased by 42.15%, 70.64% and 45.30% respectively. And average speed and the ratio of exceeding speed limit decreased by 6.92% and 20.50%p respectively. Moreover, using the C-G method total accidents, EPDOs and casualty crashes decreased by 31.35%, 66.62% and 10.04% respectively. And average speed and the ratio of exceeding speed limit decreased by 3.49% and 56.65%p respectively. Secondly, this study developed a prediction model for the probability of casualty crash. It was dependant on factors of traffic volume, ratio of exceeding speed limit, ratio of heavy vehicle, ratio of curve section, and presence of point-to-point speed enforcement. Finally, this study selected the most danger sections to the major highway and evaluated proper installation sections to the recent installation section by applying the accident prediction model. The results of this study are expected to be useful in establishing the installation standards for the point-to-point speed enforcement system.

Safety Improvement Analysis of Roundabouts in Jeollabuk-do Province using Accident Prediction Model (사고예측모형을 활용한 회전교차로 안전성 향상에 관한 연구 - 전라북도를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Chil Hyun;Kwon, Yong Seok;Kang, Kuy Dong
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2016
  • PURPOSES : There are many recently constructed roundabouts in Jeollabuk-do province. This study analyzed how roundabouts reduce the risk of accidents and improve safety in the province. METHODS : This study analyzed safety improvement at roundabouts by using an accident prediction model that uses an Empirical Bayes method based on negative binomial distribution. RESULTS : The results of our analysis model showed that the total number of accidents decreased from 130 to 51. Roundabouts also decreased casualties; the number of casualties decreased from 7 to 0 and the seriously wounded from 87 to 16. The effectiveness of accident reduction as analyzed by the accident prediction model with the Empirical Bayes method was 60%. CONCLUSIONS : The construction of roundabouts can bring about a reduction in the number of accidents and casualties, and make intersections safer.

Evaluating of Risk Order for Urban Road by User Cost Analysis (사용자비용분석을 통한 간선도로 위험순위 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jung-Ha;Park, Tae-Hoon;Im, Jong-Moon;Park, Je-Jin;Yoon, Pan;Ha, Tae-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.7 s.85
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2005
  • Level of service(LOS) is a quantify measure describing operational conditions within a traffic stream, generally, in terms of such service measures as speed, travel time, freedom to measures, traffic interruptions, comfort and convenience. The LOS is leveled by highway facilities according to measure of effectiveness(MOE) and then used to evaluate performance capacity. The current evaluation of a urban road is performed by only a aspect of traffic operation without any concepts of safety. Therefore, this paper presents a method for evaluation of risk order for urban road with new MOE, user cost analysis, considering both smooth traffic operation(congestion) and traffic safety(accident). The user coat is included traffic accident cast by traffic safety and traffic congestion cost by traffic operation. First of all, a number of traffic accident and accident rate by highway geometric is inferred from urban road traffic accident prediction model (Poul Greibe(2001)) Secondly, a user cost is inferred as traffic accident cast and traffic congestion cost is putting together. Thirdly, a method for evaluation of a urban road is inferred by user cost analysis. Fourthly a accident rate by segment predict with traffic accidents and data related to the accidents in $1996{\sim}1998$ on 11 urban road segments, Gwang-Ju, predicted accident rate. Traffic accident cost predict using predicted accident rate, and, traffic congestion cost predict using predicted average traffic speed(KHCM). Fifthly, a risk order are presented by predicted user cost at each segment in urban roads. Finally, it si compared and evaluated that LOS of 11 urban road segments, Gwang-Ju, by only a aspect of traffic operation without any concepts of safety and risk order by a method for evaluation of urban road in this paper.

Analysis of the Characteristic of Railroad(level-crossing) Accident Frequency (철도 건널목 사고의 발생빈도 특성분석 연구)

  • Park, Jun-Tae;Kang, Pal-Moon;Park, Sung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.76-81
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    • 2014
  • Railroad traffic accident consists of train accident, level-crossing accident, traffic death and injury accident caused by train or vehicle, and it is showing a continuous downward trend over a long period of time. As a result of the frequency comparison of train accidents and level-crossing accidents using the railway accident statistics data of Railway Industry Information Center, the share of train accident is over 90% in the 1990s and 80% in the 2000s more than the one of level-crossing accidents. In this study, we investigated time series characteristic and short-term prediction of railroad crossing, as well as seasonal characteristic. The analysis data has been accumulated over the past 20 years by using the frequency data of level-crossing accident, and was used as a frequency data per month and year. As a result of the analysis, the frequency of accident has the characteristics of the seasonal occurrence, and it doesn't show the significant decreasing trend in a short-term.