• Title/Summary/Keyword: Trading Days

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Foreigners' Short Selling in the Korean Stock Market around the Financial Crisis

  • Sang B. Hahn;Sehoon Kwon;Yeongseop Rhee
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.145-176
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    • 2023
  • This paper investigates short selling behavior, particularly by foreign investors, during event days of non-normal times on an intraday basis in the Korean stock market around the global financial crisis. Although, in the several subsamples, we cannot exclude the predatory short-selling possibility, we did not find any conclusive evidence of abusive short selling behaviors in the overall intraday trading activities. While foreign investors demonstrate higher levels of participation in short-sale trading, their impact on price declines is not as pronounced compared to the effects of pure selling. Following the lift of the short-sale ban, foreign investors appear to engage in long selling trading more frequently, and their influence on price changes primarily stems from long selling rather than short selling compared to the past.

Expiration-Day Effects: The Korean Evidence (주가지수 선물과 옵션의 만기일이 주식시장에 미치는 영향: 개별 종목 분석을 중심으로)

  • Choe, Hyuk;Eom, Yun-Sung
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.41-79
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    • 2007
  • This study examines the expiration-day effects of stock index futures and options in the Korean stock market. The so-called 'expiration-day effects', which are the abnormal stock price movements on derivatives expiration days, arise mainly from cash settlement. Index arbitragers have to bear the risk of their positions unless they liquidate their index stocks on the expiration day. If many arbitragers execute large buy or sell orders on the expiration day, abnormal trading volumes are likely to be observed. If a lot of arbitragers unwind positions in the same direction, temporary trading imbalances induce abnormal stock market volatility. By contrast, if some information arrives at market, the abnormal trading activity must be considered a normal process of price discovery. Stoll and Whaley(1987) investigated the aggregate price and volume effects of the S&P 500 index on the expiration day. In a related study, Stoll and Whaley(1990) found a similarity between the price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading and of the stocks that are not. Thus far, there have been few studies about the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market. While previous Korean studies use the KOSPI 200 index data, we analyze the price and trading volume behavior of individual stocks as well as the index. Analyzing individual stocks is important for two reasons. First, stock index is a market average. Consequently, it cannot reflect the behavior of many individual stocks. For example, if the expiration-day effects are mainly related to a specific group, it cannot be said that the expiration of derivatives itself destabilizes the stock market. Analyzing individual stocks enables us to investigate the scope of the expiration-day effects. Second, we can find the relationship between the firm characteristics and the expiration-day effects. For example, if the expiration-day effects exist in large stocks not belonging to the KOSPI 200 index, program trading may not be related to the expiration-day effects. The examination of individual stocks has led us to the cause of the expiration-day effects. Using the intraday data during the period May 3, 1996 through December 30, 2003, we first examine the price and volume effects of the KOSPI 200 and NON-KOSPI 200 index following the Stoll and Whaley(1987) methodology. We calculate the NON-KOSPI 200 index by using the returns and market capitalization of the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 index. In individual stocks, we divide KOSPI 200 stocks by size into three groups and match NON-KOSPI 200 stocks with KOSPI 200 stocks having the closest firm characteristics. We compare KOSPI 200 stocks with NON-KOSPI 200 stocks. To test whether the expiration-day effects are related to order imbalances or new information, we check price reversals on the next day. Finally, we perform a cross-sectional regression analysis to elaborate on the impact of the firm characteristics on price reversals. The main results seem to support the expiration-day effects, especially on stock index futures expiration days. The price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading is shown to have price effects, abnormal return volatility, and large volumes during the last half hour of trading on the expiration day. Return reversals are also found in the KOSPI 200 index and stocks. However, there is no evidence of abnormal trading volume, or price reversals in the NON-KOSPI 200 index and stocks. The expiration-day effects are proportional to the size of stocks and the nearness to the settlement time. Since program trading is often said to be concentrated in high capitalization stocks, these results imply that the expiration-day effects seem to be associated with program trading and the settlement price determination procedure. In summary, the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market do not exist in all stocks, but in large capitalization stocks belonging to the KOSPI 200 index. Additionally, the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market are generally due, not to information, but to trading imbalances.

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Trading Using Trend Reversal Pattern Recognition in the Korea Stock Market (추세 반전형 패턴 인식을 이용한 주식 거래)

  • Kwon, Soonchang
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.43-58
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    • 2013
  • Although analysis of charts, which used in stock trading by distinguishing standardized patterns in the movements of stock prices, is simple and easy to use, there can be problems stemming from specific patterns being distinguished as a result of the subjective perspectives of analysts. In accordance with such problems, through the method of template pattern matching, 4 trend reversal patterns were designed and the fitness of the patterns were quantitatively measured. In cases when a stock is purchased when the template pattern fitness value is within a certain range and held for at least 20-days, the average return ratio was analyzed to be higher-with the difference being statistically significant-than the average return ratio attained from trading a stock according to the same method per the Efficient Market Hypothesis. From the results of stock trades of 2 domestic corporations to which the values of the 4 patterns had been applied based on the 4 strategies, it was possible to ascertain differences in the strategy- and pattern-dependent return ratios. Through this study, along with presenting the exceptions for the Efficient Market Hypothesis in stock trading, the fitness level of quantitative chart patterns was measured and the theoretical basis for application of such fitness level was proposed.

An Empirical Study on the Validity of Strategic Trading Models with Concurrent Broker and Informed Trader (정보거래자와 브로커가 동시에 거래하는 전략적 모형의 타당성에 관한 실증적 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Tak
    • Korean Business Review
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.43-57
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    • 2005
  • This paper investigate to test the validity of the basic assumptions of strategic trading models with the broker and informed trader using daily closing data of KOSPI 200 stock index futures for the year 2001-2003. Major results are summarized as follows: (i) For these years, while foreign investors and brokerage companies traded for the directions consistent with the model, brokerage companies and individual investors traded for inconsistent directions. (ii) Cross correlation function (CCF) analysis shows no systematic dependency in the trading between all three participants(foreign investor, brokerage companies and individual investors) for these years. (iii) Chi-square validity test for the 30 days of the largest unexpected trading volume shows some systematic dependency in the trading between three participants for these years. Finally, some limitations of this paper and direction for further research were suggested.

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ETF Trading Based on Daily KOSPI Forecasting Using Neural Networks (신경회로망을 이용한 KOSPI 예측 기반의 ETF 매매)

  • Hwang, Heesoo
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.7-12
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    • 2019
  • The application of neural networks to stock forecasting has received a great deal of attention because no assumption about a suitable mathematical model has to be made prior to forecasting and they are capable of extracting useful information from data, which is required to describe nonlinear input-output relations of stock forecasting. The paper builds neural network models to forecast daily KOrea composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), and their performance is demonstrated. MAPEs of NN1 model show 0.427 and 0.627 in its learning and test, respectively. Based on the predicted KOSPI price, the paper proposes an alpha trading for trades in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that fluctuate with the KOSPI200. The alpha trading is tested with data from 125 trade days, and its trade return of 7.16 ~ 15.29 % suggests that the proposed alpha trading is effective.

A Study on the Functions and Problems of Bolero Bill of Lading in the Days of Global Electronic Trading (글로벌 전자무역시대(電子貿易時代)에서의 볼레로 선화증권(船貨證券)의 기능(機能)과 문제점(問題點))

  • Choi, Seok-Beom
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.14
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    • pp.177-218
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    • 2000
  • Global Electronic Trading means that trading partners trade each other via Global Electronic Trading Network, that is, global business to business electronic commerce. Recently, where the cargo arrives ahead of the B/L, the importer cannot take delivery of the cargo without the B/L. This situation is referred to as the B/L dilemma. But the BOLERO system will resolve this B/L dilemma. Bolero Project is developing a cross industry utility platform for the secure, electronic transfer of commercial trade information world wide. After the successful testing of an original pilot project, The Bolero Association was formed in 1995 by a group of interested cross industry companies. As a joint venture between SWIFT and TT Club, bolero.net is changing the way the world trades by providing a web-based, paperless mode of commerce that is designed to become a global standard. Bolero International Limited published the first edition of Bolero Rulebook in 1999. The Bolero Rulebook as amended from time to time, governing the relationship between Users and their rights and obligations arising from the Bolero system. The Bolero service will be governed by a multilateral contract called the Bolero Rule Book which specifies the rights and responsibilities of Bolero and its users. The Title Registry and Bolero Bill of Lading provide a fully functional equivalent to the paper bill of lading. The Bolero Bill of Lading can be created, transferred, amended, and surrendered by way of designating to order party, blank endorsement, refusal by the transferee etc. Thus, this study deals with the functions of Bolero Bill of Lading and the problems and solutions in the Bolero Bill of Lading in point of definitions and operation under the Bolero Rulebook.

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The study on the characteristics of the price discovery role in the KOSPI 200 index futures (주가지수선물의 가격발견기능에 관한 특성 고찰)

  • 김규태
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.196-204
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    • 2002
  • This paper examines the price discovery role of the KOSPI 200 futures index for its cash index. It was used the intrady data for KOSPI 200 and futures index from July 1998 to June 2001. The existing Preceding study for KOSPI 200 futures index was used the data of early market installation, but this study is distinguished to use a recent data accompanied with the great volume of transaction and various investors. We established three hypothesis to examine whether there is the price discovery role in the KOPSI 200 futures index and the characteristics of that. First, to examine whether the lead-lag relation is induced by the infrequent trading of component stocks, observations are sorted by the size of the trading volume of cash index. In a low trading volume, the long lead time is reported and the short lead time in a high volume. It is explained that the infrequent trading effect have an influence on the price discovery role. Second, to examine whether the lead-lag relation is different under bad news and good news, observations are sorted by the sign and size of cash index returns. In a bad news the long lead time is reported and the short lead time in a good news. This is explained by the restriction of"short selling" of the cash index Third, we compared estimates of the lead and lag relationships on the expiration day with those on days prior to expiration using a minute-to-minute data. The futures-to-spot lead time on the expiration day was at least as long as other days Prior to expiration, suggesting that "expiration day effects" did not demonstrate a temporal character substantially different form earlier days. Thus, while arbitrage activity may be presumed to be the greatest at expiration, such arbitrage transactions were not sufficiently strong or Pervasive to alter the empirical price relationship for the entire day. for the entire day.

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A Study on the Baseline Load Estimation Method using Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days Adjustment (냉난방도일을 이용한 기준부하추정 방법에 관한 연구)

  • Wi, Young-Min
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.66 no.5
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    • pp.745-749
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    • 2017
  • Climate change and energy security are major factors for future national energy policy. To resolve these issues, many countries are focusing on creating new growth industries and energy services such as smartgrid, renewable energy, microgrid, energy management system, and peer to peer energy trading. The financial and economic evaluation of new energy services basically requires energy savings estimation technologies. This paper presents the baseline load estimation method, which is used to calculate energy savings resulted from participating in the new energy program, using moving average model with heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) adjustment. To demonstrate the improvement of baseline load estimation accuracy, the proposed method is tested. The results of case studies are presented to show the effectiveness of the proposed baseline load estimation method.

WHICH INFORMATION MOVES PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM DAYS WITH DIVIDEND AND EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS AND INSIDER TRADING

  • Kim, Chan-Wung;Lee, Jae-Ha
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Studies
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.233-265
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    • 1996
  • We examine the impact of public and private information on price movements using the thirty DJIA stocks and twenty-one NASDAQ stocks. We find that the standard deviation of daily returns on information days (dividend announcement, earnings announcement, insider purchase, or insider sale) is much higher than on no-information days. Both public information matters at the NYSE, probably due to masked identification of insiders. Earnings announcement has the greatest impact for both DJIA and NASDAQ stocks, and there is some evidence of positive impact of insider asle on return volatility of NASDAQ stocks. There has been considerable debate, e.g., French and Roll (1986), over whether market volatility is due to public information or private information-the latter gathered through costly search and only revealed through trading. Public information is composed of (1) marketwide public information such as regularly scheduled federal economic announcements (e.g., employment, GNP, leading indicators) and (2) company-specific public information such as dividend and earnings announcements. Policy makers and corporate insiders have a better access to marketwide private information (e.g., a new monetary policy decision made in the Federal Reserve Board meeting) and company-specific private information, respectively, compated to the general public. Ederington and Lee (1993) show that marketwide public information accounts for most of the observed volatility patterns in interest rate and foreign exchange futures markets. Company-specific public information is explored by Patell and Wolfson (1984) and Jennings and Starks (1985). They show that dividend and earnings announcements induce higher than normal volatility in equity prices. Kyle (1985), Admati and Pfleiderer (1988), Barclay, Litzenberger and Warner (1990), Foster and Viswanathan (1990), Back (1992), and Barclay and Warner (1993) show that the private information help by informed traders and revealed through trading influences market volatility. Cornell and Sirri (1992)' and Meulbroek (1992) investigate the actual insider trading activities in a tender offer case and the prosecuted illegal trading cased, respectively. This paper examines the aggregate and individual impact of marketwide information, company-specific public information, and company-specific private information on equity prices. Specifically, we use the thirty common stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and twenty one National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) common stocks to examine how their prices react to information. Marketwide information (public and private) is estimated by the movement in the Standard and Poors (S & P) 500 Index price for the DJIA stocks and the movement in the NASDAQ Composite Index price for the NASDAQ stocks. Divedend and earnings announcements are used as a subset of company-specific public information. The trading activity of corporate insiders (major corporate officers, members of the board of directors, and owners of at least 10 percent of any equity class) with an access to private information can be cannot legally trade on private information. Therefore, most insider transactions are not necessarily based on private information. Nevertheless, we hypothesize that market participants observe how insiders trade in order to infer any information that they cannot possess because insiders tend to buy (sell) when they have good (bad) information about their company. For example, Damodaran and Liu (1993) show that insiders of real estate investment trusts buy (sell) after they receive favorable (unfavorable) appraisal news before the information in these appraisals is released to the public. Price discovery in a competitive multiple-dealership market (NASDAQ) would be different from that in a monopolistic specialist system (NYSE). Consequently, we hypothesize that NASDAQ stocks are affected more by private information (or more precisely, insider trading) than the DJIA stocks. In the next section, we describe our choices of the fifty-one stocks and the public and private information set. We also discuss institutional differences between the NYSE and the NASDAQ market. In Section II, we examine the implications of public and private information for the volatility of daily returns of each stock. In Section III, we turn to the question of the relative importance of individual elements of our information set. Further analysis of the five DJIA stocks and the four NASDAQ stocks that are most sensitive to earnings announcements is given in Section IV, and our results are summarized in Section V.

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An Empirical Study on Trading Techniques Using VPIN and High Frequency Data (VPIN과 고빈도 자료를 활용한 거래기법에 관한 실증연구)

  • Jung, Dae-Sung;Park, Jong-Hae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.79-93
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the information effect of KOSPI200 market and KOSPI200 futures market and volume synchronized probability of informed trading (VPIN). The data period is 760 days from July 8, 2015 to August 9, 2018, and the intraday trading data is used based on the trading period of the KOSPI 200 Index. The findings of the empirical analysis are as follows. First, as a result of regression analysis of the same parallax, when the level of VPIN is high, the return and volatility of KOSPI200 are high. Second, the KOSPI200 returns before and after the VPIN measurement and the return of the KOSPI200 future had a positive relationship with the VPIN. The cumulative returns of KOSPI200 futures were positive for about 15 minutes.Finally, we find that portfolios with high levels of VPIN showed high KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures return. These results confirmed the applicability of VPIN as a trading strategy index. The above results suggest that KOSPI200 and KOSPI200 futures markets will be able to explore volatility and price changes, and also be useful indicators of financial market risk.