• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.159-168
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• 2022

The time series of foreign trade turnover is complex and variable and contains linear and nonlinear information. This paper proposes preprocessing the dataset by the EMD algorithm and combining the linear prediction advantage of the SARIMA model with the nonlinear prediction advantage of the EMD-LSTM model to construct the SARIMA-EMD-LSTM hybrid model by the weight assignment method. The forecast performance of the single models is compared with that of the hybrid models by using MAPE and RMSE metrics. Furthermore, it is confirmed that the weight assignment approach can benefit from the hybrid models. The results show that the SARIMA model can capture the fluctuation pattern of the time series, but it cannot effectively predict the sudden drop in foreign trade turnover caused by special reasons and has the lowest accuracy in long-term forecasting. The EMD-LSTM model successfully resolves the hysteresis phenomenon and has the highest forecast accuracy of all models, with a MAPE of 7.4304%. Therefore, it can be effectively used to forecast the Sino-Russia foreign trade turnover time series post-epidemic. Hybrid models cannot take advantage of SARIMA linear and LSTM nonlinear forecasting, so weight assignment is not the best method to construct hybrid models.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.46 no.4
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• pp.385-391
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• 2022

In this study, a multivariate time series analysis was conducted to identify various variables that impact ocean freight rates in addition to supply and demand factors. First, we used the ClarkSea Index, Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings, and Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings provided by the Shipping Intelligence as substitute variables for the dependent variable, ocean freight. The following ndependent variables were selected: World Seaborne Trade, World Fleet, Brent Crude Oil Price, World GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production (IP OECD) Growth Rate, Interest Rate (US$ LIBOR 6 Months), and Inflation (CP I OECD) through previous studies. The time series data comprise annual data (1992-2020), and a regression analysis was conducted. Results of the regression analysis show that the World Seaborne Trade and Brent Crude Oil P rice impacted the ClarkSea Index. Only the World Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade impacted the Clarksons Average Bulker Earnings, World Seaborne Oil Trade, Brent Crude Oil Price, IP, and CP I on the Clarksons Average Tanker Earnings.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.2
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• pp.193-212
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• 2021

This study investigates the structural relationship among 11 latent factors that potentially influence the intention of Chinese consumers to purchase electrical vehicles (EV) by applying the MGB and TAM models, both based on well-established socio-psychological theories. For this research, we conducted an online survey using a Chinese platform collecting 287 valid responses to our questionnaire. The analysis reveals that 10 out of the 12 hypotheses were adopted while 2 were rejected. Specifically, it was found that EC (environment concern) and PEV (perceived environment value) had a positive effect on the PEU (perceived environmental usefulness) of electric vehicles. In addition, ATT (attitude), PAE (positive anticipated emotion), and PBC (perceived behavior control) were confirmed to have a significant positive relationship with DES (desire) for EV purchase. At the same time, the results of the analysis show a statistically significant relationship between PEU, ATT as well as PI (purchase intention). This study further analyzed and presented the results of the moderating effects of gender, based on the adopted relationship hypotheses. This study is novel in that it is the first attempt in the literature to apply both the MGB model and the TAM simultaneously to predict EV purchasing behavior.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.41-57
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• 2008

This research studies the effects of pre-show promotion, at-show promotion, and booth staff training on the image-building and relationship improvement performance of exhibitors. To this purpose, we relate each performance dimension to tactical variables such as pre show promotion, at-show promotion, and booth staff training through related literature review and conduct empirical study on their relationship. The results of this study are as follows: (1) Pre-show promotion and booth staff training have positive influence on image-building and relationship improvement performance. (2) But, at-show promotion has no effect on image-building performance, and has a negative effect on relationship improvement performance. (3) Especially, pre-show promotion has the greatest effect on relationship improvement performance, and booth staff training has the greatest effect on image-building improvement.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.3-27
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• 2017

This paper studied the effects of anti-dumping measures on the imports to investigate whether the trade restriction effect of an anti-dumping duty is dominant. Our results indicate that a 1% increase in the anti-dumping duties decreases the import of the targeted product by about 0.43~0.51%. The actual statistics, however, show that the total import of the targeted products increased by about 30 percent while an anti-dumping duty was in force. That indicates that an anti-dumping duty is just a temporary import relief. This paper also investigated whether an anti-dumping duty is terminated in the case that the injury would not be likely to continue or recur if the duty were removed. The hazards model estimates show that increase in market share, MFN tariff rate, and dumping margin decrease the hazard of termination of an anti-dumping duty, but the increase in value added increases the hazard of termination. Generally speaking, this result indicates that the WTO member countries have regulated the overuse of an anti-dumping measure. The findings of this paper show that there is a country- and industry-wise heterogeneous characteristic in the effect as well as termination of an anti-dumping duty.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.56 no.7
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• pp.2480-2488
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• 2024

Pakistan is a developing country whose maximum amount of mixed energy is provided by electricity, oil, coal, and gas. The study objective is to analyze the six major social factors to describe the significance of nuclear energy and CO₂ emissions at the decisive point coming from income, trade, energy, and urbanization. This study has tried to analyze the impact of different factors (i.e., fossil energy, GDP per capita, overall population, urban population, and merchandise trade) on Pakistan's CO₂ emissions using the extended STRIPAT model from 1986 to 2021. Ridge regression has been applied to analyze the parameters due to the multicollinearity problem in the data. The results show that (i) all the factors show significant results on carbon emissions; (ii) population and energy factors are the huge contributors to raising CO₂ emissions by 0.15% and 0.16%; however, merchandise and GDP per capita are the least contributing factors by 0.12% and 0.13% due to import/export and income level in Pakistan, and (iii) nuclear energy and substitute overall show a prominent and growing impact on CO₂ emissions by 0.16% and 0.15% in Pakistan. Finally, empirical results have wider applications for energy-saving, energy substitution, capital investment, and CO₂ emissions mitigation policies in developing countries. Moreover, by investigating renewable energy technologies and renewable energy sources, insights are provided on future CO₂ emissions reduction.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.275-298
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• 2011

In 2010, it appears that Korean economic growth rate heavily depends on its international trade. Thus, a sustainable growth of the international trade is very important to Korea. To increase export, a continuous making profits is the most important to companies and TSO(Trade Support Organization) needs to provide a trade support services to the exporting firms. In this context, this study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the correlation between company performance and service quality, utilization and customer satisfaction of TSO. Some implications from the results of this study are suggested. First, TSO needs to boost the utilization of its services by enhancing systemizing, reliability and empathy of its service qualities. And then, TSO needs to encourage companies to focus on export-oriented business mind, since these companies have tendency to show a better practical application and high degree of performance as well. Third, TSO needs to develop some exceptional services for the companies with the low weight of export in turnover since those groups tend to have higher customer satisfaction. Our major findings contribute to the trade support service planning of TSO.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.109-130
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• 2012

In recent years, the volume of global fair trade has been increased rapidly. As the quality of life improves, consumers are increasingly concerned about fairness and environment and show positive attitudes toward ethical products. Fair trade is a social movement that aims to set fair prices for products, alleviate poverty, and assist producers marginalized by the traditional economic model. The study attempt to investigate empirically fair trade products purchase intention, so consumers attitude toward fair trade product purchase, normative belief, fairness restoration expectation, ethical responsibility are defined and their impacts on the purchase intention were analyzed. The statistical method used to test the hypotheses was multi-regression using SPSS 18 for window. The results of this study are follows. Purchase attitudes toward fair trade products and ethical responsibility had a significant effect on the purchase intention. The Effectiveness of the ethical responsibility had greater than that of the purchase attitudes. The result of the empirical study provides important implications for the fair trade related organizations and businesses.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.9 no.12
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• pp.133-140
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• 2019

This study examines the reason of a staggering trade deficit on the Korean agro-food industry. To achieve the goal of the study, this study suggests the policy implication for enlargement a trade deficit with foreign exchange rate. Despite the majority of grain importer does realize that there is a huge affection for price volatility on the business result, they are more likely to take flat pricing through the physical market to avoid risk of price volatility with exchange rate. Also the analysis of external and internal environments around the Korean agro-food export & import are conducted, particularly with the analysis of trade volume and food price affecting the export & import. Results from a survey show that the common factor to the effective use of overseas agricultural and foreign currency futures trading for grain traders in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.89-111
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• 2021

Purpose - The U.S. Trade Preference Expansion Act (TPEA) of 2015 enables the US Department of Commerce (DOC) to inflate dumping margin when the particular market situation (PMS) exists in the exporter's home market. DOC applied PMS provisions to the steel products from Korea. This paper analyzes whether DOC's calculation by using the regression analysis is consistent with WTO rules. Design/methodology - This paper analyzes the PMS application in law and regression analysis that extends the data period from 10 years to 18 years using the same economic model with DOC, and changes the country group according to the quantities of steelmaking capacity. Findings - Results show that DOC's argument conflating the sales-based with cost-based PMS designed to inflate dumping margins might not be consistent with WTO Antidumping Agreement Article 2.2 and 2.2.1.1 in which costs shall normally be calculated on the basis of records kept by the exporter, providing generally accepted accounting principles and reasonably reflection of the costs and PMS that exists in the Korean steel product markets. Even if it will be consistent, DOC's calculated margin by the regression analysis using a 10-year data is a big gap (5 times) compared with an 18-year data projection and different countries' data through the same methodology, which is a huge gap of regression coefficient. It means that dumping margin would be very wide range from 7.8% to 38.54% and unstable to calculate. Inflating dumping margin by DOC using regression analysis would not only be inconsistent with WTO rules, but also projection result is unreliable. Originality/value - Literature papers have mainly analyzed WTO law itself. This paper however, would be the first attempt to analyze the DOC's new way of dumping margin calculation in both manners of law and an empirical methodology perspective at the same time.