• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.39 no.2
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• pp.181-193
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• 2020

This study is a study that analyzes consumer perception by utilizing text mining, which is a recent issue. we analyzed the consumer's perception of Samsung Galaxy by analyzing consumer reviews of Samsung Galaxy YouTube ads. for analysis, 1,819 consumer reviews of YouTube ads were extracted. through this data pre-processing, keywords for advertisements were classified and extracted into nouns, adjectives, and adverbs. after that, frequency analysis and emotional analysis were performed. Finally, clustering was performed through CONCOR. the summary of this study is as follows. the first most frequently mentioned words were Galaxy Note (n = 217), Good (n = 135), Pen (n = 40), and Function (n = 29). it can be judged through the advertisement that consumers "Galaxy Note", "Good", "Pen", and "Features" have good functional aspects for Samsung mobile phone products and positively recognize the Note Pen. in addition, the recognition of "Samsung Pay", "Innovation", "Design", and "iPhone" shows that Samsung's mobile phone is highly regarded for its innovative design and functional aspects of Samsung Pay. second, it is the result of sentiment analysis on YouTube advertising. As a result of emotional analysis, the ratio of emotional intensity was positive (75.95%) and higher than negative (24.05%). this means that consumers are positively aware of Samsung Galaxy mobile phones. As a result of the emotional keyword analysis, positive keywords were "good", "good", "innovative", "highest", "fast", "pretty", etc., negative keywords were "frightening", "I want to cry", "discomfort", "sorry", "no", etc. were extracted. the implication of this study is that most of the studies by quantitative analysis methods were considered when looking at the consumer perception study of existing advertisements. In this study, we deviated from quantitative research methods for advertising and attempted to analyze consumer perception through qualitative research. this is expected to have a great influence on future research, and I am sure that it will be a starting point for consumer awareness research through qualitative research.

• Journal of Sericultural and Entomological Science
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.47-55
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• 1981

Silk textile finishing has been studied for many years by many workers in order to meet more utilities for various endusers. Such studies, however, could not be successful because any natural fibers are hardly change their natures by artificial treating methods. Textile finishing is of course to improve the mechandise qualities and the poor natures of silk so that it may be available as the best textile fiber in the world. Sometimes, famous trade marked textile plays more power than its quality in the silk market, nevertheless, this should be over line of research activities. Meantime, the silk demand has been also transferred from ladies stocking to other clothes since nylon or other synthetic fibers were developed. That is why, the extension of silk demand should be developed by various research works. Specially, silk is known as difficult textile to handle it during washing or ironing process which happened to depress down the silk usage for house wives. In order to solve such problems, the reporter has been worked for many years and now, he believes that he has developed a proper finishing method to coversuch problems. The developed finishing method may be said to eligible with economical aspect and shorten the dry duration after water washing in half against normal silk textile without harming the specific silk nature. As all of us know, silk fiber starts to denature since it was spinned by silkworm and the fiber is formed as overlapped "S" type curves during its concooning process. After it is made as raw silk or sericin silk, it shows as straight line form, but it changes in to waved form in case refining or degumming process in order return to its original spinned form. Such nature is continued during its textile form and ends with hard ironing nature than other textile fibers. Mean while, the silk fiber keeps to continue its denaturing and this is iniciated by repeat of washing and drying which takes many years to reach its final stage, The reporter has found the iniciating denature of silk by his finishing process, with out heat, decreasing the swollen nature which ended with shortening the drying duration after wash. Each washing was carried out by soaking the previously weighed sample in cold water for one hour, then pressed the sample for ten minutes to eliminate its free water component before weighing with same condition. According to this, the treated silk showed much denaturing after the finishing, but the standard silk progressed the denaturing by and by with the repeat of washing and drying, finally reached the same swollen degree of treated silk, Such treating result explains that the treated silk happened to be stebilized nature by the treating immediately. On the other that the treated silk happened to be stebilized nature by the treating immediately. On the other hand, standard silk may reach to such condition by the time of worn out clothes after repeat of washing and drying for many years while the clothes will be no more useful. The decreased swelling nature has brought about the drying period in half against standard silk after all. Not only the tests of tenacity and elongation but also crease resistance recovery, stiffness and shrinkage tests were carried out after each washing and drying which he has found better result on the treated silk textile against the standard silk. The most important thing was to keep the textile feeling of silk by such finishing work before improve any poor nature of silk. The general silk has a nature to absorb smoke or dirt from its surrounding air and reaches to dirty color shade upon such exposure, but the treated one has improved such nature because of its artificial denaturing, another word, it keeps clean longer than the normal silk. Many previous finishing works could improve some specific nature of silk, but it happened to deprave other important natures. The reporters work is, however, specialized to improve the silk to be useful as Wash and Wear Silk without harming its standard natures. So far, this work happened to be a overall innovative finishing method of silk textile.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.15-24
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• 2011

Modern enterprises should concentrate their efforts on continuous improvements in focusing their development in the core areas of business and to reduce their expenses and to enhance the quality of service for customers. The enterprises should focus on their core business while outsourcing the non-core areas of business to external specialists for the purpose of reducing cost. In South Korea, the enterprises are becoming increasingly interested in outsourcing their logistics function, especially in using IT technologies to the 3PL. The underlying reason for this trend is because the logistics costs of Korean businesses are much higher than that of other advanced countries. This higher logistic costs weakens the price competitiveness of Korean companies in the overseas export markets and even dampening the balance of international trade. Domestically, the higher logistics costs have the effect of raising prices in the local markets and thus affecting the local economy. Therefore a solution is urgently needed to save the logistics costs for the Korean companies in the interest of increasing national competitiveness. Outsourcing to the 3PL is becoming an attraction solution to this problem. Thanks to the increasing supply of professional logistics companies, many of the enterprises are switching to the Third Party Logistics. Nevertheless the enterprises do not yet utilize the integrated third-party logistics services on a full scale. This study analyzes present conditions and problems of the domestic third-party logistics market and suggests directions for future development. To solve the problems in the domestic third-party logistics market, four actions are recommended. First there should be new supporting policies in the laws and regulations and a system for small and medium sized companies to grow. Solutions to structural problems such as abnormal multilevel merchandising, illegal operation of private cars, and freight dumping should be implemented concurrently. Furthermore, standards for new companies entry into the market should be enhanced to allow only the competitive distribution companies to enter the market. Second, development of variety of educational programs is needed through establishing human-resource development system and specialized formal educational institution focused on this market. Third, the third party distribution companies, which seek long-term relationships with the owners of goods, should endeavor to strengthen their communications capability. Fourth, adoption of high-tech distribution system and the advent of U-Logistics, making use of RFID is urgent. This study has the limitation of objectivity because it does not include various comparative case studies about companies relating to the Third Party Logistics and domestic franchise companies. However, this study is significant to the extent that it analyzes the general present conditions and the problems of domestic Third Party Logistics and suggests recommendations for revitalization of Third Party Logistics. For future studies, analyzing the successful cases of international third party logistics companies' empirical data and studying the application into domestic franchise companies would improve the objectivity of the results. This would assist the domestic third party logistics companies not only to perform excellent domestic logistics function but also to enter into the global market for international logistics.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.157-176
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• 2018

The purpose of this research is to develop a detection model for companies designated as administrative issue in KOSDAQ market using financial data. Administration issue designates the companies with high potential for delisting, which gives them time to overcome the reasons for the delisting under certain restrictions of the Korean stock market. It acts as an alarm to inform investors and market participants of which companies are likely to be delisted and warns them to make safe investments. Despite this importance, there are relatively few studies on administration issues prediction model in comparison with the lots of studies on bankruptcy prediction model. Therefore, this study develops and verifies the detection model of the companies designated as administrative issue using financial data of KOSDAQ companies. In this study, logistic regression and decision tree are proposed as the data mining models for detecting administrative issues. According to the results of the analysis, the logistic regression model predicted the companies designated as administrative issue using three variables - ROE(Earnings before tax), Cash flows/Shareholder's equity, and Asset turnover ratio, and its overall accuracy was 86% for the validation dataset. The decision tree (Classification and Regression Trees, CART) model applied the classification rules using Cash flows/Total assets and ROA(Net income), and the overall accuracy reached 87%. Implications of the financial indictors selected in our logistic regression and decision tree models are as follows. First, ROE(Earnings before tax) in the logistic detection model shows the profit and loss of the business segment that will continue without including the revenue and expenses of the discontinued business. Therefore, the weakening of the variable means that the competitiveness of the core business is weakened. If a large part of the profits is generated from one-off profit, it is very likely that the deterioration of business management is further intensified. As the ROE of a KOSDAQ company decreases significantly, it is highly likely that the company can be delisted. Second, cash flows to shareholder's equity represents that the firm's ability to generate cash flow under the condition that the financial condition of the subsidiary company is excluded. In other words, the weakening of the management capacity of the parent company, excluding the subsidiary's competence, can be a main reason for the increase of the possibility of administrative issue designation. Third, low asset turnover ratio means that current assets and non-current assets are ineffectively used by corporation, or that asset investment by corporation is excessive. If the asset turnover ratio of a KOSDAQ-listed company decreases, it is necessary to examine in detail corporate activities from various perspectives such as weakening sales or increasing or decreasing inventories of company. Cash flow / total assets, a variable selected by the decision tree detection model, is a key indicator of the company's cash condition and its ability to generate cash from operating activities. Cash flow indicates whether a firm can perform its main activities(maintaining its operating ability, repaying debts, paying dividends and making new investments) without relying on external financial resources. Therefore, if the index of the variable is negative(-), it indicates the possibility that a company has serious problems in business activities. If the cash flow from operating activities of a specific company is smaller than the net profit, it means that the net profit has not been cashed, indicating that there is a serious problem in managing the trade receivables and inventory assets of the company. Therefore, it can be understood that as the cash flows / total assets decrease, the probability of administrative issue designation and the probability of delisting are increased. In summary, the logistic regression-based detection model in this study was found to be affected by the company's financial activities including ROE(Earnings before tax). However, decision tree-based detection model predicts the designation based on the cash flows of the company.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.11
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• pp.66-79
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• 2016

A discussion has recently emerged over the increase of approvals of K-REITs, which is concluded on the basis of how to raise funds for business activity, fulfill the expected rate of return and maximize the management of managing investment funds. In addition, corporations need to acknowledge the necessity of the capital structure reflected in the current economic environment and decision-making processes. This research analyzed the characteristics by investment types and influence factors about the debt ratio of K-REITs. The data were collected from general management about business state, investment, and finance from 2002 to 2015 in K-REITs (except for the GFC period of 2007~2009). The results of the research demonstrated the high ratios of the largest shareholder characteristics, which are corporation, pension funds, mutual funds, banks, securities, insurance, and, recently, the increasing ratio of the largest shareholder and major stockholder. The investment of K-REITs is increasing the role of institutional investors that take a leading development of K-REITs. The behaviors of simultaneous investment of institutional investors were analyzed to show that they received higher interest rates than other financial institutions and ran in parallel with attraction and compensation. The results of the multiple regressions analysis, utilizing variables about debt ratio were as follows. The debt ratio showed a negative (-) relation that profitability is increasing, which matches the pecking order theory and trade off theory. On the other hand, investment opportunities (growth potential) showed a negative (-) relation and assets scale that indicated a positive (+) relation. The research results are reflected as follows. K-REITs focused on private equity REITs more than public offering REITs, and in the case of financing the capital of others, loan capital is operated under the guarantee of tangible assets (most of real estate) more than financing of the stock market. Further, after the GFC, the capital of others was actively utilized in K-REITs business, and the debt ratio showed that the determinant factors by the ratio and characteristics of the largest shareholder and investment products.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.41-79
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• 2007

This study examines the expiration-day effects of stock index futures and options in the Korean stock market. The so-called 'expiration-day effects', which are the abnormal stock price movements on derivatives expiration days, arise mainly from cash settlement. Index arbitragers have to bear the risk of their positions unless they liquidate their index stocks on the expiration day. If many arbitragers execute large buy or sell orders on the expiration day, abnormal trading volumes are likely to be observed. If a lot of arbitragers unwind positions in the same direction, temporary trading imbalances induce abnormal stock market volatility. By contrast, if some information arrives at market, the abnormal trading activity must be considered a normal process of price discovery. Stoll and Whaley(1987) investigated the aggregate price and volume effects of the S&P 500 index on the expiration day. In a related study, Stoll and Whaley(1990) found a similarity between the price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading and of the stocks that are not. Thus far, there have been few studies about the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market. While previous Korean studies use the KOSPI 200 index data, we analyze the price and trading volume behavior of individual stocks as well as the index. Analyzing individual stocks is important for two reasons. First, stock index is a market average. Consequently, it cannot reflect the behavior of many individual stocks. For example, if the expiration-day effects are mainly related to a specific group, it cannot be said that the expiration of derivatives itself destabilizes the stock market. Analyzing individual stocks enables us to investigate the scope of the expiration-day effects. Second, we can find the relationship between the firm characteristics and the expiration-day effects. For example, if the expiration-day effects exist in large stocks not belonging to the KOSPI 200 index, program trading may not be related to the expiration-day effects. The examination of individual stocks has led us to the cause of the expiration-day effects. Using the intraday data during the period May 3, 1996 through December 30, 2003, we first examine the price and volume effects of the KOSPI 200 and NON-KOSPI 200 index following the Stoll and Whaley(1987) methodology. We calculate the NON-KOSPI 200 index by using the returns and market capitalization of the KOSPI and KOSPI 200 index. In individual stocks, we divide KOSPI 200 stocks by size into three groups and match NON-KOSPI 200 stocks with KOSPI 200 stocks having the closest firm characteristics. We compare KOSPI 200 stocks with NON-KOSPI 200 stocks. To test whether the expiration-day effects are related to order imbalances or new information, we check price reversals on the next day. Finally, we perform a cross-sectional regression analysis to elaborate on the impact of the firm characteristics on price reversals. The main results seem to support the expiration-day effects, especially on stock index futures expiration days. The price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading is shown to have price effects, abnormal return volatility, and large volumes during the last half hour of trading on the expiration day. Return reversals are also found in the KOSPI 200 index and stocks. However, there is no evidence of abnormal trading volume, or price reversals in the NON-KOSPI 200 index and stocks. The expiration-day effects are proportional to the size of stocks and the nearness to the settlement time. Since program trading is often said to be concentrated in high capitalization stocks, these results imply that the expiration-day effects seem to be associated with program trading and the settlement price determination procedure. In summary, the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market do not exist in all stocks, but in large capitalization stocks belonging to the KOSPI 200 index. Additionally, the expiration-day effects in the Korean stock market are generally due, not to information, but to trading imbalances.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.160-197
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• 1996

The purpose of this study is to review research trends and issues of economic geography in Korea for the last fifty years by sub-fields of agricultural geography, industrial geography, commercial and service geography, and transportation geography. Research in Korean economic geography has progressed significantly in terms of the scope and the number of papers published during the last a half a century. Agricultural geography was a leading field of economic geography in Korea before mid-1970s. Since the mid-1970s, however, agricultural geography has turned over the leading role in economic geography to industrial geography. Classification and structure of agricultural region has been the most popular research theme in Korea, even though diverse topics has been dealt in the research of agricultulal geography in Korea during the last fifty years. In recent years, emphasis is given to study on the dynamics of agricultural region and regional differentiation of part-time farming. It is suggested that the future issues of research in agricultural geography in Korea are agricultural restructuring and changes in agricultural space under the WTO system, changes in rural area and agricultural region with the progress of informatization, changes in agricultural structures and rural society by the increase of part-time farming, governments agricultulal policy and its impacts, competitive advantages of Korean agricultulal products, and environmental impacts of agricultural restructuring. Research in industrial geography has remarkably progressed since the 1980s. Locational changes, regional industrial structure and formation of industrial region were the major topics of interest in the research of industrial geography in Korea before 1980. Since the early 1980s, in addition to the topics which were interested in before 1980, changes of industrial organization and industrial location, changes of production systems and industrial space development of high technology industries and science parks, industrial restructuring and regional economy, foreign direct investments, industrial linkages and industrial districts, and industrial policy and regional development have been the major research themes of industrial geography in Korea. Considerable number of papers has been published both in Korean journals and in foreign journals during this period. Considering global changes in the organization of industrial space, future research should be more focused on firms strategy for regaining competitive advantages, local and global perspectives of industry, industry and environmental changes, in addition to the topics which have been dealt in recent years. Research in commercial and service geography and transportation geography was negligible in Korea before the late 1970s. These two sub-fields in economic geography have begun to develop since 1980s. Periodic markets, structure of commercial area, and distribution of products were the major topics of interest in the 1980s in the commercial and service geography in Korea. In the 1990s, however reserch in producer services has been active with growth of producer services in Korean economy. It is suggested that regional changes with progress of informatization and technology, changes of international trade and regional changes, development of efficient distribution system, role of producer services in regional development, and network of producer services are the major issues to be studied in the future in the field of commercial and service geography in Korea. Commuting, distribution of products, and transportation networks have been the major topics of research in transportation geography in Korea. Diverse quantitative techniques have been applied in the most of the researches in transportation geography. It is required that future studies in transportation geography should also focus on societal and behavioral issues, policy issues regional impacts of new transportation facilities, an analysis of transportation system at the global or international level. Since the 1980s economic geography in Korea has considerably progressed with publication of papers and books. The progress can be regarded as successful in quantitative aspect, but not in quantitative aspects. For the development of Korean economic geography in both quantitative and qualitative aspects, it is necessary to promote international collaborative researches and interdisciplinary cooperations. Attention should also be given to the research on changes in competitive advantages and economic restructuring, changes of economic space with the development of high technology and the progress of informatization. economic development and culture. and foreign regional studies.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.231-249
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• 2014

We define $21^{st}$ century as an amalgamation of globalization and localization, or Glocalization. Additionally, due to the increasing supply of smart phones and wide usage of social networking services, the ability to utilize such global and regional information has increased a coperation's competitiveness in its market, and even the business models have evolved from the conventional "production and distribution" to E-commerce, through which either a direct or a non-direct transaction is possible. My hypothesis is that the ability to adapt to this trend is possible through transfer of learning, and consequently, this will have an impact on company's performance. Thus, this thesis analyzes the mid- to the long-term impact of such ability and environmental factors on the performance and technology innovation of Korean companies in China. Ultimately, this study intends to engender a basic foundation for a corporation's management strategy in China. Finally this research focuses on those Korean companies in China only and on the proof of influential factors' impact on technological innovation and technological innovation's impact on those corporations' future performances. Section I is an abstract and section II, the case examines the uniqueness and current status of Korean companies in China identifies the concept and the definition of influential factors such as education-orientation, technological innovation, and performance, and then scrutinizes each factors through a closer look at their past researches. Section III explains the thesis model, the survey's method and target, the thesis, variable factors, the content, and the method of analysis. In section IV, the thesis is proved based on the outcome of the survey. The result in Section V highlights the high comprehension of technological innovation: both education-orientation and technological innovation prove to have a positive (+) correlation with the performance. The vision on education orientation proves to have a positive (+) influence on technological innovation. The vision on education-orientation and technological innovation prove to have a positive (+) influence individually on company's performance.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.39 no.6
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• pp.439-450
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• 2015

This study objects to find characteristics in chemical tanker markets and to determine optimal chemical tanker size using a total shipping cost in main trading route of asia chemical tankers .Precedent studies of determination of the optimal ship size and case studies about chemical tankers was carried out and tried to introduce a cost model which is applicable to chemical tanker. This study is dependant on numerical analysis and involves scenario analysis to minimize sensitivity of results. This analysis shows as follows. First, 12,000DWT tanker is an optimal size on the 'Far East-Middle East' services, 9,000DWT tanker is a most competitive on the 'Far East-South East Asia' services and 3,000DWT tanker is a most economic size on the 'Inner Far East' services at average market situation. Second, the bigger size of chemical tanker, the more competitive advantage the tanker will obtain when bunker fuel prices rise. Small size ship gets more competitive during bunker prices down. Third, market fluctuation of time charter rate for chemical tanker is less than 20% against its average time charter hire which means less volatile. And tanker's competitiveness per each size is remained mostly same when time charterer rates rise at same proportion. Fourth, bigger size chemical tankers have cost advantages when tanker's quantity of each part cargo increase. And small-sized tanks are more competitive when part cargo scales decrease. For the last, ship's port stay strongly influences on the determination of the optical tanker size. When vessel has shorter port stay, bigger-sized tanker will be more competitive and even can be competitive if applies in short voyage as well.