• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.129-139
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• 2004

Recently, much attentions are paid to the risk associated with increased uses of medium size radiation sources in medical and industrial fields. In this study, radiation risks to the worker and to the general public due to $^{99m}Tc$ generator were assessed for both normal and accident conditions. Based on the event tree technique, exposure scenarios for various situations were derived. Uncertainty analysis based on the Monte-Carlo technique was applied to the risk assessment for workers and members of the public in the vicinity of the work place. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed on each of the five independent input parameters to identify importance of the parameters with respect to the resulting risk. Because the frequencies of normal tasks are fat higher than those of accidents, the total risk associated with normal tasks were higher than the accident risk. The annual dose due to normal tasks were $0.6mSv\;y^{-1}$ for workers and $0.014mSv\;y^{-1}$ for public, while in accident conditions $3.96mSv\;y^{-1}\;and\;0.0016mSv\;y^{-1}$, respectively. Uncertainty range of accident risk was higher by 10 times than that of normal risk. Sensitivity analysis revealed that source strength, working distance and working time were crucial factors affecting risk. This risk analysis methodology and its results will contribute to establishment of risk-informed regulation for medium and large radioactive sources.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.109-132
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• 2006

A Major aim of this study is to test the hypothesis that there is an association between empowerment, organizational memory, and new product creativity. In addition to exploring these relationships, this study examines the effect of new product creativity on new product performance, and identify the moderating effects of market uncertainty in the relationships between new product creativity and performance. For this purposes, we developed a research model based on the literature reviews of empowerment, organizational memory, market uncertainty, and new product creativity. A total of 121 usable survey responses has been used in the empirical research for foods manufacturing industry. The findings indicate that (1) Empowerment has a positive effect on new product creativity, (2) Organizational memory has a positive effect on new product creativity, (3) New product novelty has a positive effect on new product performance, and (4) Only competition uncertainty has a moderating effects between the new product meaningfulness and performance. The findings have implications for managers wishing to acquire the new product creativity and to better the new product development performance.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.18-31
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• 1989

To analyze the impact of air pollution control on electricity generation cost, a computer program was developed. POGEN calculates levelized discounted power generation cost including additional air pollution control cost for coal power plant. Pollution subprogram calculates total capital and variable costs using governing equations for flue gas control. The costs are used as additional input for levelized discounted power generation cost subprogram. Pollution output for Rue Gas Desulphurization direct cost was verified using published cost data of well experienced industrialized countries. The power generation costs for the year 2001 were estimated by POGEN for three different regulatory scenarios imposed on coal power plant, and by levelized discounted power generation cost subprogram for nuclear power. Because of uncertainty expected in input variables for future plants, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were made to check the importance and uncertainty propagation of the input variables using Latin Hypercube Sampling and Multiple Least Square method. Most sensitive parameter for levelized discounted power generation cost is discount rate for both nuclear and coal. The control cost for flue gas alone reaches additional 9-11 mills/kWh with standard deviation less than 1.3 mills/kWh. This cost will be nearly 20% of power generation cost and 40% of one GW capacity coal power plant investment cost. With 90% confidence, the generation cost of nuclear power plant will be 32.6-51.9 mills/kWh, and for the coal power plant it will be 45.5-50.5 mills/kWh. Nuclear is favorable with 95% confidence under stringent future regulatory requirement in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.spc1
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• pp.1295-1303
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• 2022

As the role of water distribution networks (WDNs) becomes more important, identifying abnormal events (e.g., pipe burst) rapidly and accurately is required. Since existing approaches such as field equipment-based detection methods have several limitations, model-based methods (e.g., machine learning based detection model) that identify abnormal events using hydraulic simulation models have been developed. However, no previous work has examined the impact of data uncertainties on the results. Thus, this study compares the effects of measurement error-induced pressure data uncertainty in WDNs. An artificial neural network (ANN) is used to predict nodal pressures and measurement errors are generated by using cumulative density function inverse sampling method that follows Gaussian distribution. Total of nine conditions (3 input datasets × 3 output datasets) are considered in the ANN model to investigate the impact of measurement error size on the prediction results. The results have shown that higher data uncertainty decreased ANN model's prediction accuracy. Also, the measurement error of output data had more impact on the model performance than input data that for a same measurement error size on the input and output data, the prediction accuracy was 72.25% and 38.61%, respectively. Thus, to increase ANN models prediction performance, reducing the magnitude of measurement errors of the output pressure node is considered to be more important than input node.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.28 no.5
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• pp.285-294
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• 2024

Seismic fragility curves present the conditional probability of damage to target structures due to external seismic load and are widely used in various ways. When constructing such a seismic fragility curve, it is essential to consider various types and numbers of ground motions. In general, the earthquake occurrence characteristics of an area where the target structure of the seismic fragility curve exists are analyzed, and based on this, appropriate ground motions are selected to derive the seismic fragility curve. If the number of selected ground motions is large, the diversity of ground motions is considered, but a large amount of computational time is required. Conversely, if the number of ground motions is too small, the diversity of ground motions cannot be considered, which may distort the seismic fragility curve. Therefore, this study analyzed the relationship between the number of ground motions considered when deriving the seismic fragility curve and the parameters of the seismic fragility curve. Using two example structures, numerical analysis was performed by selecting a random number of ground motions from a total of two hundred, and a seismic fragility curve was derived based on the results. Analysis of the relationship of the parameter of the seismic fragility curve and the number of selected ground motions was performed. As the number of ground motions considered increases, uncertainty in ground motion selection decreases, and when deriving seismic fragility curves considering the same number of ground motions, uncertainty increases relatively as the degree of freedom of the target structure increases. However, considering a relatively large number of ground motions, uncertainty appeared insignificant regardless of increased degrees of freedom. Finally, it is possible that the increase in the number of ground motions could lower the epistemic uncertainty and thus improve the reliability of the results.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.34 no.2_1
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• pp.191-201
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• 2018

In this present study, we, for the first time, retrieved total column of ozone ($O_3$) and tropospheric ozone vertical profile using the Optimal Estimation (OE) method based on the MAX-DOAS measurement at the Yonsei University in Seoul, Korea. The optical density fitting is carried out using the OE method to calculate ozone columns. The optical density between the MAX-DOAS data obtained by dividing the measured intensities for each viewing elevated angle by those at the zenith angle. The retrieved total columns of the ozone are 375.4 and 412.6 DU in the morning (08:13) and afternoon (17:55) on 23 May, 2017, respectively. In addition, under 10 km altitude, the $O_3$ vertical profile was retrieved with about 5% of retrieval uncertainty. However, above 10 km altitude, the $O_3$ vertical profile retrieval uncertainty was increased (>10%). The spectral fitting errors are 16.8% and 19.1% in the morning and afternoon, respectively. The method suggested in this present study can be useful to measure the total ozone column using the ground-based hyper-spectral UV sensors.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.17-26
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• 2019

In this study, the statistical characteristics of the resistance bias factors were analyzed using a high-quality field load test database, and the total resistance bias factors were estimated considering the soil uncertainty and construction errors for the application of the limit state design of aggregate pier foundation. The MLR model by Bong and Kim (2017), which has a higher prediction performance than the previous models was used for estimating the resistance bias factors, and its suitability was evaluated. The chi-square goodness of fit test was performed to estimate the probability distribution of the resistance bias factors, and the normal distribution was found to be most suitable. The total variability in the nominal resistance was estimated including the uncertainty of undrained shear strength and construction errors that can occur during the aggregate pier construction. Finally, the probability distribution of the total resistance bias factors is shown to follow a log-normal distribution. The parameters of the probability distribution according to the coefficient of variation of total resistance bias factors were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation, and their regression equations were proposed for simple application.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.976-983
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• 2023

Purpose: The dynamic behavior of a bridge structure under seismic loading depends on many uncertainties, such as the nature of the seismic waves and the material and geometric properties. However, not all uncertainties have a significant impact on the dynamic behavior of a bridge structure. Since probabilistic seismic performance evaluation considering even low-impact uncertainties is computationally expensive, the uncertainties should be identified by considering their impact on the dynamic behavior of the bridge. Therefore, in this study, a global sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the main parameters affecting the dynamic behavior of bridges with I-curved girders. Method: Considering the uncertainty of the earthquake and the material and geometric uncertainty of the curved bridge, a finite element analysis was performed, and a surrogate model was developed based on the analysis results. The surrogate model was evaluated using performance metrics such as coefficient of determination, and finally, a global sensitivity analysis based on the surrogate model was performed. Result: The uncertainty factors that have the greatest influence on the stress response of the I-curved girder under seismic loading are the peak ground acceleration (PGA), the height of the bridge (h), and the yield stress of the steel (fy). The main effect sensitivity indices of PGA, h, and fy were found to be 0.7096, 0.0839, and 0.0352, respectively, and the total sensitivity indices were found to be 0.9459, 0.1297, and 0.0678, respectively. Conclusion: The stress response of the I-shaped curved girder is dominated by the uncertainty of the input motions and is strongly influenced by the interaction effect between each uncertainty factor. Therefore, additional sensitivity analysis of the uncertainty of the input motions, such as the number of input motions and the intensity measure(IM), and a global sensitivity analysis considering the structural uncertainty, such as the number and curvature of the curved girders, are required.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.2179-2183
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• 2009

As urbanization is progressed, the network for distributing water in a basin become complex due to the spatial expansion and parameter uncertainties of water supply systems. When a long range water supply plan is determined, the total construction and operation cost has to be evaluated with the system components and parameter uncertainties as many as possible. In this paper, the robust optimization approach of Bertsimas and Sim is applied in a hypothetical system to find a solution which remains feasible under the possible parameter uncertainties having the correlation effect between the uncertain coefficients. The system components to supply, treatment, and transport water are included in the developed water supply system and construction and expansion of the system is allowed for a long-range period. In this approach, the tradeoff between system robustness and total cost of the system is evaluated in terms of the degree of conservatism which can be converted to the probability of constraint violation. As a result, the degree of conservatism increases, the total cost is increased due to the installation of large capacity of treatment and transportation systems. The applied robust optimization technique can be used to determine a long-range water supply plan with the consideration of system failure.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.227-233
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• 2004

The main objectives of this study were to identify from literature review the potential sources and to provide a preliminary national emission inventory for the unintentionally produced polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) (i.e., by - product PCBs). In Korea, fuel combustion, waste combustion, thermal industrial processes, and transportation were identified as potential sources of by -product PCB s. According to the availability of the emission factors and/or activity data, emission inventory could be assessed only for fuel combustion, waste combustion, steel industry, non-ferrous industry, and non-metallurgical industry. The total national emission of by-product PCBs was estimated to be 1087kg for the year 2000. The preliminary estimation further indicated that the steel manufacturing was the single dominant emission category, contributing 93％ to the total emission. Of the steel manufacturing processes, the contribution of the electric arc furnace was about 80％ of the total emission. Due to high uncertainty associated with both the emission factors and activity statistics, the emission estimates in this study are likely to contain significant errors. However, the results of the present work could serve the first step toward future efforts to establish national source and emission inventories of by-product PCBs.