• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.34 no.1
• /
• pp.75-98
• /
• 2021

This paper compares three statistical models that examine the relationship between national and provincespecific fertility rates. The three models are two of the regression models and a cointegration model. The regression model is by substituting Gompit transformation for the cumulative fertility rate by the average for ten years, and this model applies the raw data without transformation of the fertility data. A cointegration model can be considered when fitting the unstable time series of fertility rate in probability process. This paper proposes the following when it is intended to derive the relation of non-stationary fertility rate between the national and provinces. The cointegrated relationship between national and regional fertility rates is first derived. Furthermore, if this relationship is not significant, it is proposed to look at the national and regional fertility rate relationships with a regression model approach using raw data without transformation. Also, the regression model method of substituting Gompit transformation data resulted in an overestimation of fertility rates compared to other methods. Finally, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangju, Daejeon and Gyeonggi province are expected to show a total fertility rate of 1.0 or less from 2025 to 2030, so an urgent and efficient policy to raise this level is needed.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.79-92
• /
• 1985

Fertility has been declined since 1966 (see Table 1). This fertility reduction was duely caused by age at first marriage, induced abortion and contraceptive practice which has been largely increased in recent years. Although tbe proximate determinant such as induced abortion, age at marriage and breastfeeding can and do have an effect on fertility, the principal cause of the reduction in fertility in Korea during the fertility transition can be supported by correlation between level of fertility and contraceptive prevalence (See Fig. 4). Taking a regression equation between fertility (TER. Y) and prevalence level (X), the total fertility rate in 1984 was estimated as 1.9 and 2.1 based on lenear and expotential function shown as follow; $Y_1$=5.709-0.0549 X and $Y_2$_______80________ 1+e2.433+0.017X ($R^2$=O. 93) ($R^2$=0. 96) Where $Y_1$ and $Y_2$ denote total fertility rates obtained through two equations respectivelly. The peak of contraceptive prevalence was assumdd as 80 percent which is almost upper limit in human society. On the other hand, an observed value of 1984 fertility level obtained from five month period shows 2.1 which is coincident with logistic fitting after the adjustment of response error assumed around 10 to 20 percent, At any rate, fertility of Korean women will have been reached replacement level (2.1) by 1985.Thus policy for family planning program must be reviewed toward the direction of integrated approach particularly with MCH program inasmuch as fertility in Korea has already shown population replacement level that require more good quality of service in family planning and their There must be an advanced level of fertility in Korea because wide use of contraception and induced life abortion and age at marriage will effect modern fertility which shows up and down trend between 2.1 and 1.5 in general.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Child Welfare
• /
• no.60
• /
• pp.59-86
• /
• 2017

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of child/family allowance on total fertility rate by period. For this purpose, it formed pooled-time series data from 1980 to 2015 targeting 19 OECD countries that adopted the child allowance policies, and made a close inquiry into a variable-based relationship through the pooled-time series cross-section analysis. The results were as follows. The child allowance appeared to have a significant impact on fertility rate even after controlling for other variables. Such impact was shown to be more noticeable in countries that introduced a fertility encouragement mechanism within its child allowance program. Based on the results, this study suggested the necessity of stepping up a benefit for multi-child families by additionally adopting a fertility encouragement mechanism within the child allowance program, in order for the child allowance program in Korea to function as well as the fertility rate promotion down the road.

• Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
• /
• v.47 no.4
• /
• pp.306-311
• /
• 2020

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine whether co-administration of a gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) for final oocyte maturation improved mature oocyte cryopreservation outcomes in young women with decreased ovarian reserve (DOR) compared with hCG alone. Methods: Between January 2016 and August 2019, controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) cycles in women (aged ≤35 years, anti-Müllerian hormone [AMH] <1.2 ng/mL) who underwent elective oocyte cryopreservation for fertility preservation were retrospectively analyzed. Results: A total of 76 COS cycles were triggered with a GnRH agonist and hCG (the dual group) or hCG alone (the hCG group). The mean age and serum AMH levels were comparable between the two groups. The duration of stimulation, total dose of follicle-stimulating hormone used, and total number of oocytes retrieved were similar. However, the number of mature oocytes retrieved and the oocyte maturation rate were significantly higher in the dual group than in the hCG group (p=0.010 and p<0.001). After controlling for confounders, the dual-trigger method remained a significant factor related to the number of mature oocytes retrieved (p=0.016). Conclusion: We showed improved mature oocyte collection and maturation rate with the dual triggering of oocyte maturation in young women with DOR. A dual trigger appears to be more beneficial than hCG alone in terms of mature oocyte cryopreservation for young women with DOR.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.30 no.3
• /
• pp.137-156
• /
• 2007

Total fertility rate (TFR) increased from the lowest 1.08 in 2005 to 1.13 in 2006, and a debate is made whether the increase is temporary or continuous as a result of various pro-natal policies. This study intends to explore policy implications revealed in recent fertility change using vital statistics. For this purpose, tempo-adjusted fertility rate by birth order, fertility rate by age of mother and birth order, age-specific fertility for married, and age-specific divorce rate for married are analyzed. The increase of TFR and births for 2006 is largely due to increase of first births at early thirties with slowdown of delayed first marriage and first child birth. The increase of female population (the third wave effect of baby boom) and first marriages of late twenties in 2006 and 2007 would lead to increase of fertility during 2007-2008. But further increase is uncertain because of the decrease trend of marital fertility and increase trend of never-married for twenties. TFRs for first and second births reduced rapidly, while TFRs for third and above births showed no changes, and second births were largely affected by tempo adjustment of fertility. Thus, constructing social environment for first and second births is more effective and necessary than encouraging third births. In addition, social responsibility of child care, child-women health issues due to delayed births, and the need for multi-cultural family support system are discussed.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.31 no.1
• /
• pp.127-146
• /
• 2008

Over the past four decades reproductive behavior has changed slowly in much of the African countries. The average total fertility rate has fallen from six or more to near five today. Between 1960 and 2000 the largest fertility decline occurred in such Northern African countries as Algeria, Libya, and Morocco. The mortality rate has decreased in most African countries. The purpose of this study is to review the pattern of demographic transition in African countries. At first, this study focuses on the fertility transition. In Africa, the total fertility rate has decreased from 6.59 to 4.85 between 1960 and 2000. The mortality rate has also decreased in most of African countries. It is also interesting to find that there is a clear difference among African countries. In terms of infant mortality rate, Libya shows the lowest rate(17), while Mali and Somalia remain still high rate(142 and 133, respectively). This study tests a path model in which infant mortality rate acts as an intermediate variable between three socioeconomic variables and the fertility rate. The findings of this paper substantiate some of our hypotheses on the interrelationships among socioeconomic variables, infant mortality rate, and fertility rate. The result also shows the indirect effects of socioeconomic variables on fertility rate via infant mortality.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.16 no.1
• /
• pp.558-567
• /
• 2016

In the case of France which was successful in improving the ultra-low fertility rates of birth and South Korea, from the late 1980s, the birth rate fell continuously. In 1994, total fertility rate fell 1.66, but thanks to the active family policy of the government in the mid 1990s, it grew and maintained 2.0 average since the year 2008 until now. This study examined carefully how France was not classified as advanced welfare state, overcame the obstacles of low fertility problem in the socio-economic and institutional side and trying to get some suggestions from South Korea in which it of such problems in the field of low fertility.

• The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
• /
• v.28 no.1
• /
• pp.63-76
• /
• 2024

Purpose: To analyze trends related to demography and EMS and to provide supporting data for the appropriate deployment of EMS providers. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, data on patients transported by 119 EMS, demographics, and EMS factors were collected using the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) and the National Fire Agency annual report from 2017 to 2021. Results: During the study period, the total number of patients and those with severe disorders transported via 119 EMS showed an increasing trend. The total fertility rate and population during the same period tended to decrease, and the population density and number of households increased; however, there was a disparity between regions. The main demographic factors affecting the number of patients transported were population density and total fertility rate, while the main EMS factors were the number of ambulances and provision of emergency medical information services(hospital guidance, pharmacy information, and first aid guidance). Conclusion: From the perspective of EMS providers' force deployment, it is necessary to consider population density, population, number of households, total fertility rate, and number of emergency medical institutions and to strengthen the role of diverting the use of 119 EMS by minor patients by providing emergency medical information.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.32 no.1
• /
• pp.113-137
• /
• 2009

This article uses genealogical information to estimate fertility, mortality, and population growth in Korea during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Upper class males' probability of dying as estimated from genealogies was converted into that for the whole male population drawing upon information on colonial mortality and model life tables, which indicated male life expectancy at birth was 23 years. Age-specific marital fertility rates for upper class females as calculated from genealogies were combined with estimates of age at first marriage and information on colonial fertility to derive age-specific fertility rate for the whole female population, which implied a total fertility rate of 6.81. Finally, the estimated indices of mortality and fertility were inserted into equations describing stable populations to find that the Korean population grew 0.62% p.a. during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries.

• Korea journal of population studies
• /
• v.33 no.2
• /
• pp.113-136
• /
• 2010

Low fertility has become quite commonplace worldwide, and Europe has experienced below replacement fertility for several decades. In addition, lowest-low fertility, defined as period total fertility rate below 1.3, has rapidly spread in Europe during the 1990s and is likely to expand further. After the turn of century, lowest-low fertility started spreading in Eastern Asia. Korea's TFR of 1.19 in 2008 is lower than most European countries, although it is higher than the Hongkong(1.02) and Taiwan(1.09). The purpose of this paper is to examine the socioeconomic determinants of lowest-low fertility in Korea. In doing so, this paper discusses the effects of female labour force participation, labour instability on family formation and fertility. The data includes female labour force participation rate, unemployment rate, age at first marriage, and total fertility rate from 1980 to 2008. First, the economic recession hindered young people's economic independence and propensity to marry. Married couples were also depressed with uncertainty toward the future and avoided to have children. Second, the growth in female labor force participation had a negative impact on fertility, under the low level of compatibility between women's work and childrearing. Moreover, this paper argues that the rising cost of children including public and private educational costs is thought to be the main reason of the recent low fertility in Korea. Policy implications and some comments on population policies are also presented in the final section.