• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.689-700
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• 2016

We study estimation and inference of the joint conditional distributions of bivariate longitudinal outcomes using regression models and copulas. For the estimation of marginal models we consider a class of time-varying transformation models and combine the two marginal models using nonparametric empirical copulas. Regression parameters in the transformation model can be obtained as the solution of estimating equations and our models and estimation method can be applied in many situations where the conditional mean-based models are not good enough. Nonparametric copulas combined with time-varying transformation models may allow quite flexible modeling for the joint conditional distributions for bivariate longitudinal data. We apply our method to an epidemiological study of repeatedly measured bivariate cholesterol data.

• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
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• v.59 no.2
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• pp.154-157
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• 2010

In this paper, the Time-varying Failure Rates(TFR) of power distribution system components are extracted from the recorded failure data of KEPCO(Korea Electric Power Corporation) and the reliability of power distribution system is evaluated using Mean Failure Rate(MFR) and TFR. The TFR is approximated to bathtub curve using the exponential and Weibull distribution function. In addition, Kaplan-Meier estimation is applied to TFR extraction because of incomplete failure data of KEPCO. Also the reliability of the real power distribution system of Korea is evaluated using the MFR and TFR extracted from real failure data, respectively and the results of each case are compared with each other. As a result, it is proved that the reliability evaluation using the TFR is more realistic than MFR. In addition, it is presented that the application method at power distribution system maintenance and repair using the result of TFR.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.29-35
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• 2006

The third generation mobile communications system requiring the reliable multimedia data transmission has provided with the reliable voice, data and video services over the variable propagation environment. However the broadband wireless multiple access technologies cause Inter Symbol Interference(ISI) or Multiple Access Interference(MAI) to degrade the performance of CDMA(Code Division Multiple Access) system. Constant Modulus Algorithm which is frequently used as the adaptive blind equalizers to remove the interfering signal has ill-convergence phenomenon without proper initialization. In this paper, new blind equalization method based on conventional CMA is proposed to improve the channel efficiency, and through computer simulation this is tested over the time varying fading environment of mobile communication system. consequently, new blind equalization method into concatenated Kalman filter with CMA is verified better than conventional CMA through adopting minimum mean square errors and eye-pattern obtained from algorithm are compared.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.85-95
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• 2019

Purpose - The existing marketing studies using Social Network Analysis have assumed that network structure variables are time-invariant. However, a node's network position can fluctuate considerably over time and the node's network structure can be changed dynamically. Hence, if such a dynamic structural network characteristics are not specified for virtual goods purchase model, estimated parameters can be biased. In this paper, by comparing a time-invariant network structure specification model(base model) and time-varying network specification model(proposed model), the authors intend to prove whether the proposed model is superior to the base model. In addition, the authors also intend to investigate whether coefficients of network structure variables are random over time. Research design, data, and methodology - The data of this study are obtained from a Korean social network provider. The authors construct a monthly panel data by calculating the raw data. To fit the panel data, the authors derive random effects panel tobit model and multi-level mixed effects model. Results - First, the proposed model is better than that of the base model in terms of performance. Second, except for constraint, multi-level mixed effects models with random coefficient of every network structure variable(in-degree, out-degree, in-closeness centrality, out-closeness centrality, clustering coefficient) perform better than not random coefficient specification model. Conclusion - The size and importance of virtual goods market has been dramatically increasing. Notwithstanding such a strategic importance of virtual goods, there is little research on social influential factors which impact the intention of virtual good purchase. Even studies which investigated social influence factors have assumed that social network structure variables are time-invariant. However, the authors show that network structure variables are time-variant and coefficients of network structure variables are random over time. Thus, virtual goods purchase model with dynamic network structure variables performs better than that with static network structure model. Hence, if marketing practitioners intend to use social influences to sell virtual goods in social media, they had better consider time-varying social influences of network members. In addition, this study can be also differentiated from other related researches using survey data in that this study deals with actual field data.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.109-122
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• 2018

The composite lognormal-generalized Pareto distribution (LN-GPD) is a mixture of right-truncated lognormal and GPD for a given threshold value. Scollnik (Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2007, 20-33, 2007) shows that the composite LN-GPD is adequate to describe body distribution and heavy-tailedness. This paper considers time-varying modeling of the LN-GPD based on local polynomial maximum likelihood estimation. Time-varying model provides significant detailed information of time dependent data, hence it can be applied to disciplines such as service engineering for staffing and resources management. Our work also extends to Beirlant and Goegebeur (Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 89, 97-118, 2004) in the sense of losing no data by including truncated lognormal distribution. Our proposed method is shown to perform adequately in simulation. Real data application to the service time of the Israel bank call center shows interesting findings on the staffing policy.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.2562-2567
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• 2005

This paper suggests a new method discretization of nonlinear system using Taylor series expansion and zero-order hold assumption. This method is applied into the sampled-data representation of a nonlinear system with input time delay. Additionally, the delayed input is time varying and its amplitude is bounded. The maximum time-delayed input is assumed to be two sampling periods. Them mathematical expressions of the discretization method are presented and the ability of the algorithm is tested for some of the examples. And 'hybrid' discretization scheme that result from a combination of the ‘scaling and squaring' technique with the Taylor method are also proposed, especially under condition of very low sampling rates. The computer simulation proves the proposed algorithm discretized the nonlinear system with the variable time-delayed input accurately.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.245-261
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• 2007

Nonlinear time-domain system identification (SI) algorithm is proposed to assess damage in a shear building by synchronously estimating time-varying stiffness and damping parameters using measured acceleration data. Mass properties have been assumed as the a priori known information. Viscous damping was utilized for the current research. To chase possible nonlinear dynamic behavior under severe vibration, an incremental governing equation of vibrational motion has been utilized. Stiffness and damping parameters are estimated at each time step by minimizing the response error between measured and computed acceleration increments at the measured degrees-of-freedom. To solve a nonlinear constrained optimization problem for optimal structural parameters, sensitivities of acceleration increment were formulated with respect to stiffness and damping parameters, respectively. Incremental state vectors of vibrational motion were computed numerically by Newmark-${\beta}$ method. No model is pre-defined in the proposed algorithm for recovering the nonlinear response. A time-window scheme together with Monte Carlo iterations was utilized to estimate parameters with noise polluted sparse measured acceleration. A moving average scheme was applied to estimate the time-varying trend of structural parameters in all the examples. To examine the proposed SI algorithm, simulation studies were carried out intensively with sample shear buildings under earthquake excitations. In addition, the algorithm was applied to assess damage with laboratory test data obtained from free vibration on a three-story shear building model.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.143-152
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• 2017

This paper has numerically investigated the changes of loading-induced stress in concrete with the corrosion time in the sulfate-containing environment. Firstly, based on Fick's law and reaction kinetics, a diffusion-reaction equation of sulfate ion in concrete is proposed, and it is numerically solved to obtain the spatial and temporal distribution of sulfate ion concentration in concrete by the finite difference method. Secondly, by fitting the existed experimental data of concrete in sodium sulfate solutions, the chemical damage of concrete associated with sulfate ion concentration and corrosion time is quantitatively presented. Thirdly, depending on the plastic-damage mechanics, while considering the influence of sulfate attack on concrete properties, a simplified chemo-mechanical damage model, with stress-based plasticity and strain-driven damage, for concrete under axial loading and sulfate attack is determined by introducing the chemical damage degree. Finally, an axially compressed concrete prism immersed into the sodium sulfate solution is regarded as an object to investigate the time-varying stress in concrete subjected to the couplings of axial loading and sulfate attack.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.85 no.4
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• pp.531-543
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• 2023

The existing concrete bridges are time-varying working systems, where the maintenance strategy should be planned according to the time-varying performance of the bridge. This work proposes a time-dependent residual capacity assessment procedure, which considers the non-stationary bridge load effects under growing traffic and non-stationary structural deterioration owing to material degradations. Lifetime bridge load effects under traffic growth are predicated by the non-stationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) method using time-dependent generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models. The non-stationary structural resistance owing to material degradation is modeled by incorporating the Gamma deterioration process and field inspection data. A three-span continuous box-girder bridge is illustrated as an example to demonstrate the application of the proposed procedure, and the time-varying reliability indexes of the bridge girder are calculated. The accuracy of the proposed non-stationary POT method is verified through numerical examples, where the shape parameter of the time-varying GPD model is constant but the threshold and scale parameters are polynomial functions increasing with time. The case study illustrates that the residual flexural capacities show a degradation trend from a slow decrease to an accelerated decrease under traffic growth and material degradation. The reliability index for the mid-span cross-section reduces from 4.91 to 4.55 after being in service for 100 years, and the value is from 4.96 to 4.75 for the mid-support cross-section. The studied bridge shows no safety risk under traffic growth and structural deterioration owing to its high design safety reserve. However, applying the proposed numerical approach to analyze the degradation of residual bearing capacity for bridge structures with low safety reserves is of great significance for management and maintenance.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.11b
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• pp.1454-1462
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• 2008

This paper is focused on the analysis of the noise and vibration measured near the wheelset of the high-speed trains using a time-varying frequency transform as a preliminary research of running monitoring. Due to the non-stationary characteristics, it is necessary to examine noise and vibration of the train with time-varying frequency transforms. In this paper, the short-time Fourier transform method is utilized - the stored data is localized by modulating with a window function, and Fourier transform is taken to each localized data. For the examination, the non-stationary noise and vibration of the high-speed train's wheelset are measured by using some microphones and accelerometers, and those signals are stored in a on-board data acquisition system. The non-stationary random signal analyses with the short-time Fourier transform are performed, and the result are classified as follows; auto-spectral density, cross-spectral density, frequency response, and coherence functions. From those functions, it is possible to observe the frequency characteristics of sleepers, switchers, tunnels, and steel bridges. Also, some distinct peaks, which are not dependent upon the train's speed, are identified from the results.