• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
• /
• 제36권1호
• /
• pp.16-23
• /
• 2011

보다 정확한 우라늄 농축도 분석은 핵물질 관리를 위하여 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 감마선을 이용한 우라늄 농축도 분석에서 시료와 검출기 사이에 차폐체가 있는 경우와 측정시간 변화에 따른 분석결과에 대한 정확성 평가 및 오차분석을 수행하였다. 우라늄 농축도를 분석하기 위하여 FRAM (Fixed energy Response function Analysis with Multiple efficiencies)을 이용하였다. FRAM에 의한 분석결과의 정확성은 화학 분석 결과와의 비교를 통해 평가되었다. 연구결과 선원과 검출기사이에 차폐체가 존재할 경우 차폐체의 두께변화에 따른 감마선의 세기는 지수함수 형태로 감소하며 감마선에너지 피이크의 반치폭 (FWHM : Full Width at Half Maximum)은 차폐체의 두께에 영향을 거의 받지 않는 것을 보였다. 따라서 시료와 검출기 사이에 차폐체가 있는 경우의 우라늄 농축도 분석에서 FRAM을 이용한 감마선분광 분석은 유용하게 활용될 수 있다. 본 연구 결과는 차폐체 안에 우라늄이 있는 경우 핵물질 분석에 기여할 수 있을 것이 기대된다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
• /
• 제22권4호
• /
• pp.399-411
• /
• 2018

The difficulty in modeling complex nonlinear structures lies in the presence of significant sources of uncertainties mainly attributed to sudden changes in the structure's behavior caused by regular aging factors or extreme events. Quantifying these uncertainties and accurately representing them within the complex mathematical framework of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) are significantly essential for system identification and damage detection purposes. This study highlights the importance of uncertainty quantification in SHM frameworks, and presents a comparative analysis between intrusive and non-intrusive techniques in quantifying uncertainties for SHM purposes through two different variations of the Kalman Filter (KF) method, the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the Polynomial Chaos Kalman Filter (PCKF). The comparative analysis is based on a numerical example that consists of a four degrees-of-freedom (DOF) system, comprising Bouc-Wen hysteretic behavior and subjected to El-Centro earthquake excitation. The comparison is based on the ability of each technique to quantify the different sources of uncertainty for SHM purposes and to accurately approximate the system state and parameters when compared to the true state with the least computational burden. While the results show that both filters are able to locate the damage in space and time and to accurately estimate the system responses and unknown parameters, the computational cost of PCKF is shown to be less than that of EnKF for a similar level of numerical accuracy.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
• /
• 제36권4호
• /
• pp.661-671
• /
• 2003

본 연구는 홍수위 계산에 있어서 도입되는 불확식성의 원인을 분석하고 정량화하여 확률론적 홍수위 계산을 실시함으로서 제방원류에 대한 제내지의 범람특성을 해석할 수 있는 모형을 개발하였다. 이를 위해서 홍수위에 영향을 미치는 각종 영향인자를 통계학적으로 분석하였고, 이들 인자를 부등류와 부정류 해석과정에 Monte Carlo 모의를 도입함으로써 홍수위에 미치는 영향을 정량화하였다. 개발된 모형의 검증을 위해 낙동강 유역의 현풍∼적포교구간에 적용하였다. 제내지로의 범람양상과 역류양상을 합리적으로 모의하였고 질량보존도 잘 모의하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 제내지 침수양상 모의시 붕괴폭, 붕괴시간 등의 불확실도를 고려하여 침수수심 및 침수면적을 산정하였다.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
• /
• 제20권2호
• /
• pp.79-89
• /
• 2022

To compute the mean and variance of component-based reliability software, we focused on path-based reliability analysis. System reliability depends on the transition probabilities of components within a system and reliability of the individual components as basic input parameters. The uncertainty in these parameters is estimated from the test data of the corresponding components and arises from the software architecture, failure behaviors, software growth models etc. Typically, researchers perform Monte Carlo simulations to study uncertainty. Thus, we considered a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation to calculate uncertainty, as it generates random samples through sequential methods. The MCMC approach determines the input parameters from the probability distribution, and then calculates the average approximate expectations for a reliability estimation. The comparison of different techniques for uncertainty analysis helps in selecting the most suitable technique based on data requirements and reliability measures related to the number of components.

• 한국지반공학회논문집
• /
• 제35권12호
• /
• pp.45-58
• /
• 2019

본 연구에서는 강우의 침투에 따른 토사사면의 파괴에 대한 강우강도-지속시간의 강우기준을 평가하기 위하여 수치해석에 의한 파괴시간의 확률론적 해석 절차를 제안하였다. 취약도 곡선은 시간에 따른 강우의 침투해석 결과를 반영하며 지반의 역학적 특성의 불확실성을 고려한 MCS에 의한 확률론적 사면 안정해석의 결과로부터 강우강도-지속기간의 함수로 생성하였다. 확률론적 해석에서 한계상태함수를 계산하기 위하여 강우의 침투해석과 연동된 사면 안정해석을 수행하였다. 생성된 사면의 취약도 곡선들을 기반으로 확률론적 사면 파괴분포 분석을 수행하여 지반의 불확실성을 고려한 사면 파괴 유발 강우기준을 평가하였다. 제안된 사면 파괴분포 분석법은 강우의 침투로 인한 사면 파괴의 과정을 분석하고 사면 파괴가 발생할 수 있는 시간을 예측하는데 유용하게 사용될 수 있다.

• 대한간호학회지
• /
• 제18권3호
• /
• pp.231-238
• /
• 1988

The purpose of this study was to assess and compare discrepancy in the scores of uncertainty perceived by patients and nurses' interperson perception. For this study, 124 hospitalized patients and the same numbered nurses assigned for direct care of each 124 patients were selected from general ward of C. University Hospital in Seoul during the time period from September to November 1987. Degree of uncertainty was measured by 27 items modified from Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale (MUIS), and was utilized by a Likert type scale The data were analysed by Mcnemar-test. Unpaired t-test. ANOVA, Scheffe - test and Stepwise multiple regression. The results are summarized as follows : 1. The discrepancy in the scores of uncertainty perceived by patients and nurses' interperson perception showed significant differences in 23 of 27 items : 11 of 23 items showed that the scores of patients' perception of uncertainty were higher than that of nurses' interperson perception of uncertainty. but 12 of 23 items were revealed reversely. 2. With regard to nurse's demographic variables, the discrepancy scores were the higest in the group under 22 years of age (F＝3.20, p＝.026) and in the group less than 1 year of nursing experience among 4 groups (F＝4.41, p＝.006). 3. The discrepancy scores had a tendency to be lowered in the higher age group(r＝ -.27. p＝.0026) and in the longer experienced group (r＝-.25, p＝.0052). 4. The most important variable affecting the discrepancy scores was identified to be the nurses' age which acounted for 7.2% fo the total variances in the stepwise multiple regression analysis. This was followed by patient hospital days which accounted for an additional 4.5% of the total variances. To conclude, the discrepancy in the scores of uncertainty perceived by patients and nurses' interperson perception showed significant differences in 23 of 27 items. The discrepancy scores of uncertainty had a tendancy to be lowered in the higher age group and in the longer experienced group.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.151-151
• /
• 2018

The present study is aimed to quantifying the uncertainty in the general circulation model (GCM) selection and its impacts on hydrology studies in the basins. For this reason, 13 GCMs was selected among the 26 GCM models of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) scenarios. Then, the climate data and hydrologic data with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of the best model (INMCM4) and worst model (HadGEM2-AO) were compared to understand the uncertainty associated with GCM models. In order to project the runoff, the Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was driven to simulate daily river discharge by using daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature as inputs of this model. For simulating the discharge, the model has been calibrated and validated for daily data. Root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were applied as evaluation criteria. Then parameters of the model were applied for the periods 2011-2040, and 2070-2099 to project the future discharge the five large basins of South Korea. Then, uncertainty caused by projected temperature, precipitation and runoff changes were compared in seasonal and annual time scale for two future periods and RCPs compared to the reference period (1976-2005). The findings of this study indicated that more caution will be needed for selecting the GCMs and using the results of the climate change analysis.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2008년도 학술발표회 논문집
• /
• pp.299-303
• /
• 2008

In this study, an uncertainty assessment for surface air temperature(T2m) and precipitation(PCP) over East Asia is carried out. The data simulated by the intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Atmosphere-Ocean coupled general circulation Model (AOGCM) are used to assess the uncertainty. Examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP variabilities shows that spring-summer cold bias and fall warm bias of T2m are found over both East Asia and the Korea peninsula. In contrast, distinctly summer dry bias and winter-spring wet bias of PCP over the Korea peninsula is found. To investigate the PCP seasonal variability over East Asia, the cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function(CSEOF) analysis is employed. The CSEOF analysis can extract physical modes (spatio-temporal patterns) and their undulation (PC time series) of PCP, showing the evolution of PCP. A comparison between spatio-temporal patterns of observed and modeled PCP anomalies shows that positive PCP anomalies located in northeastern China (north of Korea) of the multi-model ensemble(MME) cannot explain properly the contribution to summer monsoon rainfalls across Korea and Japan. The uncertainty of modeled PCP indicates that there is disagreement between observed and MME anomalies. The spatio-temporal deviation of the PCP is significantly associated with lower- and upper-level circulations. In particular, lower-level moisture transports from the warm pool of the western Pacific and corresponding moisture convergence significantly contribute to summer rainfalls. These lower- and upper-level circulations physically consistent with PCP give a insight of the reason why differences between modeled and observed PCP occur.

• 신재생에너지
• /
• 제6권2호
• /
• pp.5-11
• /
• 2010

This paper reviews three commercial softwares for wind climate data analysis in wind resource assessment; WAsP/Observed Wind Climate, WindRose and Windographer. Windographer is evaluated as the best software because of its variety of input data format, analysis functions, easiness of user interface, etc. For a quantitative understanding of uncertainty depending on software selection, a benchmark is carried out with the met-mast observation dataset at the Gimnyeong Wind Turbine Performance Test Site. It is found that Weibull parameter calculation and air density correction have a dependency on the software so that such uncertainty should be considered when an analysis software is selected. It is confirmed that annual energy production calculated by WAsP using a statistical table of frequency of occurrence may have some error compared to a time-series calculation method used by the other softwares.

• 한국지반공학회논문집
• /
• 제20권4호
• /
• pp.89-102
• /
• 2004

디커플링장전조건의 화약 폭발시 발생하는 발파압력은 최대압력, 최대압력 도달시간, 압력파형의 함수로 나타난다. 발파 최대압력과 최대압력 도달시간은 화약과 암반 특성의 함수이다. 화약과 암반특성시험 결과로부터 그 특성치의 확률분포를 산출하였다. 화약과 암반 특성치의 확률분포가 정규분포로 나타났으므로 발파 최대압력과 최대압력 도달시간의 확률분포도 정규분포로 추정되었다. 발파 최대압력과 최대압력 도달시간에 가장 크게 영향을 미치는 변수를 파악하기 위하여 매개변수분석과 불확정성분석을 실행하였다. 최대압력과 최대압력 도달시간은 매개변수분석결과 화약특성에 가장 크게 영향을 받았지만 불확정성분석결과 화약보다 암반특성에 크게 영향을 받았다. 발파로 인하여 굴착선주 변 암반에 발생하는 손상을 수치해석으로 분석하였다. 암반손상을 산정하기 위하여 연속체손상역학에 기초하여 사용자 부 프로그램을 작성하였다. 이 부 프로그램을 ABAQUS 주 프로그램과 연결하여 해석하였다. 동적 해석결과는 확대공 발파에 의한 손상이 외곽공보다 크게 나타났다. 확대공 배치, 암반분류 세분화 등 여굴방지 방안이 제안되었다 손상계수의 파쇄기준이 불명확하므로 fuzzy-random 확률이론을 적용하여 파쇄기준과 파쇄영역을 명확하게 나타내었다.