• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time trend analysis

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지역적 성향을 고려한 도시하천 유역의 도달시간 및 저류상수 공식 개발 (Development of Concentration Time and Storage Coefficient Considering Regional Trend in Urban Stream Watershed)

  • 배덕효;김용재
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제48권6호
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    • pp.479-489
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 도시하천 유역의 신뢰성 높은 수문해석을 위해 지역적 성향을 고려한 도달시간 및 저류상수 공식을 개발하였다. 이를 위해 국내 대표 도시하천 유역인 중랑천, 탄천, 안양천, 홍제천 내 13개 유역을 대상으로 지역적 성향이 없는 유역특성인자와 지역적 성향이 있는 도시 및 강우특성인자를 분석하였으며, 단계적 다중회귀분석을 통하여 공식을 개발하였다. 개발된 공식은 국내외 경험식들과 함께 도시하천 유역에 대해 정확도를 비교 평가하였다. 분석결과 본 연구에서 개발한 공식의 계산값이 다른 경험식들에 비해 더욱 정확하게 모의하였으며 오차합, 평균오차, 평균제곱근오차 또한 가장 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구는 도시하천 유역이라는 지역적 성향을 고려하여 공식을 개발함으로써 기존 국내외 경험식들보다 더 나은 결과를 제시하였다는 측면에서 가치가 있다고 판단된다.

시변동의 동질성 증가에 의한 비단조적 시계열자료의 경향성 탐지력 향상 (Improved Trend Estimation of Non-monotonic Time Series Through Increased Homogeneity in Direction of Time-variation)

  • 오경두;박수연;이순철;전병호;안원식
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제38권8호
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    • pp.617-629
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    • 2005
  • 본 논문은 비단조적으로 변동하는 시계열자료를 단조적으로 변화하는 구간으로 분할하여 경향성을 분석함으로써 자료의 시변동에 대한 동질성을 향상시키고 그에 따라 경향성 분석기법의 탐지력을 향상시킬 수 있다는 가설을 전제로 하고 있다. 이를 검토하기 위한 기법으로서 시계열자료의 변동경향을 파악하기 위한 필터링 방법으로 LOWESS smoothing을 적용하였고, 시계열자료의 경향성분석은 seasonal Kendall test를 적용하였다. 인위적으로 발생시킨 시계열자료와 대청호의 수온, 유량, 기온, 일사량 등의 시계열자료를 대상으로 검토한 결과 비단조적인 변화를 보이는 시계열자료를 단조적인 변화구간으로 분할하여 경향성을 분석함으로써 자료의 변동 경향성과 기울기 판정의 정확도를 높일 수 있었다. 그리고, 자료의 시변동에 대한 동질성 향상은 계절 변동성의 동질성에 대한 변화를 보다 정확하게 분석하는데 도움을 주는 것으로 보였으며 이것은 자연현상에 대한 인간활동의 영향을 고찰할 수 있는 자료로서 앞으로 이에 대한 연구가 더 필요할 것으로 보인다. 본 논문에서 제시한 방법은 시계열자료의 단조적인 경향성을 분석하는 기법들에 대해 적용 가능하며, 이를 통하여 환경변화의 경향성에 대한 보다 정확한 분석과 판단이 가능해질 것으로 기대한다.

정부지원 한의학 과제의 연구동향 분석 - 2002~2007년 연구과제 보고서를 대상으로 - (Research Trend Analysis of Traditional Korean Medicine Supported by the Government - on the Research Reports from 2002 to 2007 Year -)

  • 예상준;장현철;김진현;김철;김상균;송미영
    • 대한한의학원전학회지
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.15-28
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    • 2009
  • Traditional korean medicine which has long history and many clinical experiments stands out in bold relief because the medicine's point of view has been changed from medical treatment to disease protection and the wellbeing life through health care and complementary alternative medicine has been emerged for the incurable disease. Many traditional korean medical research has been conducted in the fields of preventive medical application, leading material drawing and medical service upgrade through eastern and western medical treatment and the more advanced project are being studied as time goes by. But because we have the hardship of manifesting traditional korean medicine's knowledge into detailed data and information in the field of analytical science and we don't have well arranged research trend data of it, researchers are using much time to survey the preceding research and planners needing more accurate research trend data to protect duplication and raise efficiency. So we have studied the traditional korean medicine's research trend to solve this problems by the method of bibliography applied for the preceding project results. Through the analysis of traditional korean medicine's 370 project reports we came to a conclusion that the R&D investment is concentrated on the university and research institute, the utilization projects are lower than basic and applied research, regional snobbism is excessive than the whole nation's R&D and advanced project has been started since 2006.

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Trend Analysis of Stream Qualities In Nakdong River by the LOWESS method

  • Yoon, Yong-Hwa;Um, Hee-Jung;Kim, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.1019-1026
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    • 2008
  • The goal of this paper is to analysis the trend of stream quality about the upstream, middle stream and high areas of Nakdong River measurement points from January 1998 to December 2006. and to suggest some policy alternatives in Nakdong river. It used the three different monthly time series data such as BOD (biochemical oxygen demand), TN (Total Nitrogen) and TP(Total Phosphorus), of the three of Nakdong River measurement points. BOD, TN and TP data are analyzed with the LOWESS(Locally Weighted Scatter plot Smoother) nonparametric method.

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시계열분석(時系列分析)에 의한 배수량추정(配水量推定) (Estimation of Water Distributed Volume Using Time Series Analysis)

  • 이정환;정춘웅;오민환
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 1992년도 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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    • pp.340-343
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    • 1992
  • In this paper, To estimate monthly water distribution volume required optimization control of operating scheme & water distribution management for water transmission system in water supply, both Thomas-Fiering technique and Fourier series are compared and analyzed, respectively. Since water distribution volume is periodically repeated and has a linear fluctuation trend, parameters in each element are estimated through dividing into linear fluctuation trend component and periodical component. Finally, results of time-series analysis are proved to be more reasonable than that of Thomas-Fiering techniques by comparing simulation with observation data.

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Investigation on Trend Removal in Time Domain Analysis of Electrochemical Noise Data Using Polynomial Fitting and Moving Average Removal Methods

  • Havashinejadian, E.;Danaee, I.;Eskandari, H.;Nikmanesh, S.
    • Journal of Electrochemical Science and Technology
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    • 제8권2호
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    • pp.115-123
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    • 2017
  • Electrochemical noise signals in many cases exhibit a DC drift that should be removed prior to further data analysis. Polynomial fitting and moving average removal method have been used to remove trends of electrochemical noise (EN) in time domain. The corrosion inhibition of synthesized schiff base N,N'-bis(3,5-dihydroxyacetophenone)-2,2-dimethylpropandiimine on API-5L-X70 steel in hydrochloric acid solutions were used to study the effects of drifts removal methods on noise resistance calculation. Also, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) was used to study the corrosion inhibition property of the inhibitor. The results showed that for the calculation of $R_n$, both methods were effective in trend removal and the polynomial with m=4 and MAR with p=40 were in agreement.

Associations between dietary patterns and screen time among Korean adolescents

  • Lee, Jae Yeon;Jun, Nuri;Baik, Inkyung
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • 제7권4호
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    • pp.330-335
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    • 2013
  • Data are limited on the association between dietary patterns and screen time among Korean adolescents. The present study identified dietary patterns of 691 adolescents, aged 13-18 years, who had participated in the Third Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES III) and analyzed their associations with screen time. Screen time was defined as the time spent watching TV, using a computer, or playing video games was calculated as a sum of all these times. Dietary patterns and their factor scores were derived from a food frequency questionnaire using the factor analysis method. To analyze the association between dietary patterns and screen time, we conducted multiple linear regression analysis. We also performed multiple logistic regression analysis to estimate odds ratios (OR) of excessive screen time (2 hours or longer per day) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). We identified 2 dietary patterns labeled "the Korean healthy dietary pattern" and "the Western diet and fast foods pattern". The former included mixed grains, legumes, potatoes, red meat, eggs, fish, dairy products, fruits, vegetables, seaweeds, and mushrooms, whereas the latter included noodles, bread, red meat, poultry, fast foods, snack, and soft drinks. After controlling for potential confounding factors, factor scores for the Korean healthy dietary pattern were inversely associated (P-value for trend < 0.01) and those for the Western diet and fast foods pattern were positively associated with the screen time (P-value for trend < 0.01). Adolescents in the top tertile of the scores for the Korean healthy dietary pattern had a multivariable-adjusted OR [95% CI] of 0.44 (0.25-0.75) for excessive screen time compared with those in the lowest tertile. On the basis of these findings, adolescents who have excessive screen time may need to be encouraged to consume a more healthy diet.

What is the Most Suitable Time Period to Assess the Time Trends in Cancer Incidence Rates to Make Valid Predictions - an Empirical Approach

  • Ramnath, Takiar;Shah, Varsha Premchandbhai;Krishnan, Sathish Kumar
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제16권8호
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    • pp.3097-3100
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    • 2015
  • Projections of cancer cases are particularly useful in developing countries to plan and prioritize both diagnostic and treatment facilities. In the prediction of cancer cases for the future period say after 5 years or after 10 years, it is imperative to use the knowledge of past time trends in incidence rates as well as in population at risk. In most of the recently published studies the duration for which the time trend was assessed was more than 10 years while in few studies the duration was between 5-7 years. This raises the question as to what is the optimum time period which should be used for assessment of time trends and projections. Thus, the present paper explores the suitability of different time periods to predict the future rates so that the valid projections of cancer burden can be done for India. The cancer incidence data of selected cancer sites of Bangalore, Bhopal, Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai PBCR for the period of 1991-2009 was utilized. The three time periods were selected namely 1991-2005; 1996-2005, 1999-2005 to assess the time trends and projections. For the five selected sites, each for males and females and for each registry, the time trend was assessed and the linear regression equation was obtained to give prediction for the years 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009. These predictions were compared with actual incidence data. The time period giving the least error in prediction was adjudged as the best. The result of the current analysis suggested that for projections of cancer cases, the 10 years duration data are most appropriate as compared to 7 year or 15 year incidence data.

Changes in Time Preference Caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic

  • Inyong Shin
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • 제27권3호
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    • pp.179-211
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    • 2023
  • This paper investigates the relationship between the spread of COVID-19 and time preference. In contrast to previous studies that compared time preferences before and during the pandemic, this study estimates time preferences during the COVID-19 period using eight surveys conducted over two years. Additionally, a regression analysis was conducted on the number of new COVID-19 cases and the time elapsed since the outbreak, with estimated time preference as the dependent variable. Despite a small sample size, statistically significant results were obtained, showing that as the number of new cases increased, time preference also increased. However, this effect diminished over time and disappeared by the end of 2021 in Japan. This may be due to the public's growing familiarity with the risks of COVID-19 and the availability of vaccines and treatments. Despite a significant increase in new cases in 2022, time preference was lower than immediately after the outbreak, and this was reflected in private investments. Immediately after the outbreak of COVID-19, private investments decreased by 12% compared to the previous year, but the investments are returning in 2022 despite the surge in the number of cases. The trend of time preference explains the trend of Japanese private investments very well.

KZ 필터를 이용한 부산지역 PM10의 장기 추세 분석 (Analysis of the Long-term Trend of PM10 Using KZ Filter in Busan, Korea)

  • 도우곤;정우식
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2017
  • To determine the effect of air pollution reduction policies, the long-term trend of air pollutants should be analyzed. Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter is a low-pass filter, produced through repeated iterations of a moving average to separate each variable into its temporal components. The moving average for a KZ(m, p) filter is calculated by a filter with window length m and p iterations. The output of the first pass subsequently becomes the input for the next pass. Adjusting the window length and the number of iterations makes it possible to control the filtering of different scales of motion. To break down the daily mean $PM_{10}$ into individual time components, we assume that the original time series comprises of a long-term trend, seasonal variation, and a short-term component. The short-term component is attributable to weather and short-term fluctuations in precursor emissions, while the seasonal component is a result of changes in the solar angle. The long-term trend results from changes in overall emissions, pollutant transport, climate, policy and/or economics. The long-term trend of the daily mean $PM_{10}$ decreased sharply from $59.6ug/m^3$ in 2002 to $44.6ug/m^3$ in 2015. This suggests that there was a long-term downward trend since 2005. The difference between the unadjusted and meteorologically adjusted long-term $PM_{10}$ is small. Therefore, we can conclude that $PM_{10}$ is unaffected by the meteorological variables (total insolation, daily mean temperature, daily mean relative humidity, daily mean wind speed, and daily mean local atmospheric pressure) in Busan.