• Title/Summary/Keyword: Time predictability

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A Study on the Predictability of Hospital's Future Cash Flow Information (병원의 미래 현금흐름 정보예측)

  • Moon, Young-Jeon;Yang, Dong-Hyun
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.19-41
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    • 2006
  • The Objective of this study was to design the model which predict the future cash flow of hospitals and on the basis of designed model to support sound hospital management by the prediction of future cash flow. The five cash flow measurement variables discussed in financial accrual part were used as variables and these variables were defined as NI, NIDPR, CFO, CFAI, CC. To measure the cash flow B/S related variables, P/L related variables and financial ratio related variables were utilized in this study. To measure cash flow models were designed and to estimate the prediction ability of five cash flow models, the martingale model and the market model were utilized. To estimate relative prediction outcome of cash flow prediction model and simple market model, MAE and MER were used to compare and analyze relative prediction ability of the cash flow model and the market model and to prove superiority of the model of the cash flow prediction model, 32 Regional Public Hospital's cross-section data and 4 year time series data were combined and pooled cross-sectional time series regression model was used for GLS-analysis. To analyze this data, Firstly, each cash flow prediction model, martingale model and market model were made and MAE and MER were estimated. Secondly difference-test was conducted to find the difference between MAE and MER of cash flow prediction model. Thirdly after ranking by size the prediction of cash flow model, martingale model and market model, Friedman-test was evaluated to find prediction ability. The results of this study were as follows: when t-test was conducted to find prediction ability among each model, the error of prediction of cash flow model was smaller than that of martingale and market model, and the difference of prediction error cash flow was significant, so cash flow model was analyzed as excellent compare with other models. This research results can be considered conductive in that present the suitable prediction model of future cash flow to the hospital. This research can provide valuable information in policy-making of hospital's policy decision. This research provide effects as follows; (1) the research is useful to estimate the benefit of hospital, solvency and capital supply ability for substitution of fixed equipment. (2) the research is useful to estimate hospital's liqudity, solvency and financial ability. (3) the research is useful to estimate evaluation ability in hospital management. Furthermore, the research should be continued by sampling all hospitals and constructed advanced cash flow model in dimension, established type and continued by studying unified model which is related each cash flow model.

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Potential Importance of Proteomics in Research of Reproductive Biology (생식생물학에세 프로테오믹스의 응용)

  • Kim Ho-Seung;Yoon Yong-Dal
    • Development and Reproduction
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2004
  • The potential importance of proteomic approaches has been clearly demonstrated in other fields of human medical research, including liver and heart disease and certain forms of cancer. However, reproductive researches have been applied to proteomics poorly. Proteomics can be defined as the systematic analysis of proteins for their identity, quantity, and function. It could increase the predictability of early drug development and identify non-invasive biomarkers of toxicity or efficacy. Proteome analysis is most commonly accomplished by the combination of two-dimensional gel electrophoresis(2DE) and MALDI-TOF(matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight) MS(mass spectrometry) or protein chip array and SELDI-TOF(surface-enhanced laser desorption ionization-time of flight) MS. In addition understanding the possessing knowledge of the developing biomarkers used to assess reproductive biology will also be essential components relevant to the topic of reproduction. The continued integration of proteomic and genomic data will have a fundamental impact on our understanding of the normal functioning of cells and organisms and will give insights into complex cellular processes and disease and provides new opportunities for the development of diagnostics and therapeutics. The challenge to researchers in the field of reproduction is to harness this new technology as well as others that are available to a greater extent than at present as they have considerable potential to greatly improve our understanding of the molecular aspects of reproduction both in health and disease.

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The Application of Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for Modeling the Hourly Runoff in the Gapcheon Watershed (적응형 네트워크 기반 퍼지추론 시스템을 적용한 갑천유역의 홍수유출 모델링)

  • Kim, Ho Jun;Chung, Gunhui;Lee, Do-Hun;Lee, Eun Tae
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.5B
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    • pp.405-414
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    • 2011
  • The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) which had a success for time series prediction and system control was applied for modeling the hourly runoff in the Gapcheon watershed. The ANFIS used the antecedent rainfall and runoff as the input. The ANFIS was trained by varying the various simulation factors such as mean areal rainfall estimation, the number of input variables, the type of membership function and the number of membership function. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean peak runoff error (PE), and mean peak time error (TE) were used for validating the ANFIS simulation. The ANFIS predicted runoff was in good agreement with the measured runoff and the applicability of ANFIS for modelling the hourly runoff appeared to be good. The forecasting ability of ANFIS up to the maximum 8 lead hour was investigated by applying the different input structure to ANFIS model. The accuracy of ANFIS for predicting the hourly runoff was reduced as the forecasting lead hours increased. The long-term predictability of ANFIS for forecasting the hourly runoff at longer lead hours appeared to be limited. The ANFIS might be useful for modeling the hourly runoff and has an advantage over the physically based models because the model construction of ANFIS based on only input and output data is relatively simple.

Synchronization of Network Interfaces in System Area Networks (시스템 에어리어 네트?에서의 동기화 기법)

  • Song, Hyo-Jung
    • Journal of KIISE:Computer Systems and Theory
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.219-231
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    • 2005
  • Many applications in cluster computing require QoS (Quality of Service) services. Since performance predictability is essential to provide QoS service, underlying systems must provide predictable performance guarantees. One way to ensure such guarantees from network subsystems is to generate global schedules from applications'network requests and to execute the local portion of the schedules at each network interface. To ensure accurate execution of the schedules, it is essential that a global time base must be maintained by local clocks at each network interface. The task of providing a single time base is called a synchronization problem and this paper addresses the problem for system area networks. To solve the synchronization problem, FM-QoS (1) proposed a simple synchronization mechanism called FBS(Feedback-Based Synchronization) which uses built-in How control signals. This paper extends the basic notion of FM-QoS to a theoretical framework and generalizes it: 1) to identify a set of built-in network flow control signals for synchrony and to formalize it as a synchronizing schedule, and 2) to analyze the synchronization precision of FBS in terms of flow control parameters. Based on generalization, two application classes are studied for a single switch network and a multiple switch network. For each class, a synchroniring schedule is proposed and its bounded skew is analyzed. Unlike FM-QoS, the synchronizing schedule is proven to minimize the bounded skew value for a single switch network. To understand the analysis results in practical networks, skew values are obtained with flow control parameters of Myrinet-1280/SAN. We observed that the maximum bounded skew of FBS is 9.2 Usec or less over all our experiments. Based on this result, we came to a conclusion that FBS was a feasible synchronization mechanism in system area networks.

An Assessment of Applicability of Heat Waves Using Extreme Forecast Index in KMA Climate Prediction System (GloSea5) (기상청 현업 기후예측시스템(GloSea5)에서의 극한예측지수를 이용한 여름철 폭염 예측 성능 평가)

  • Heo, Sol-Ip;Hyun, Yu-Kyung;Ryu, Young;Kang, Hyun-Suk;Lim, Yoon-Jin;Kim, Yoonjae
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.257-267
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    • 2019
  • This study is to assess the applicability of the Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) algorithm of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system to the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5), operational seasonal forecast system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The EFI is based on the difference between Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) curves of the model's climate data and the current ensemble forecast distribution, which is essential to diagnose the predictability in the extreme cases. To investigate its applicability, the experiment was conducted during the heat-wave cases (the year of 1994 and 2003) and compared GloSea5 hindcast data based EFI with anomaly data of ERA-Interim. The data also used to determine quantitative estimates of Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), and spatial pattern correlation. The results showed that the area of ERA-Interim indicating above 4-degree temperature corresponded to the area of EFI 0.8 and above. POD showed high ratio (0.7 and 0.9, respectively), when ERA-Interim anomaly data were the highest (on Jul. 11, 1994 (> $5^{\circ}C$) and Aug. 8, 2003 (> $7^{\circ}C$), respectively). The spatial pattern showed a high correlation in the range of 0.5~0.9. However, the correlation decreased as the lead time increased. Furthermore, the case of Korea heat wave in 2018 was conducted using GloSea5 forecast data to validate EFI showed successful prediction for two to three weeks lead time. As a result, the EFI forecasts can be used to predict the probability that an extreme weather event of interest might occur. Overall, we expected these results to be available for extreme weather forecasting.

Restoration of implant-supported fixed dental prosthesis using the automatic abutment superimposition function of the intraoral scanner in partially edentulous patients (부분무치악 환자에서 구강스캐너의 지대주 자동중첩기능을 이용한 임플란트 고정성 보철물 수복 증례)

  • Park, Keun-Woo;Park, Ji-Man;Lee, Keun-Woo
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2021
  • The digital workflow of optical impressions by the intraoral scanner and CADCAM manufacture of dental prostheses is actively developing. The complex process of traditional impression taking, definite cast fabrication, wax pattern making, and casting has been shortened, and the number of patient's visits can also be reduced. Advances in intraoral scanner technology have increased the precision and accuracy of optical impression, and its indication is progressively widened toward the long span fixed dental prosthesis. This case report describes the long span implant case, and the operator fully utilized digital workflow such as computer-guided implant surgical template and CAD-CAM produced restoration after the digital impression. The provisional restoration and customized abutments were prepared with the optical impression taken on the same day of implant surgery. Moreover, the final prosthesis was fabricated with the digital scan while utilizing the same customized abutment from the provisional restoration. During the data acquisition step, stl data of customized abutments, previously scanned at the time of provisional restoration delivery, were imported and automatically aligned with digital impression data using an 'A.I. abutment matching algorithm' the intraoral scanner software. By using this algorithm, it was possible to obtain the subgingival margin without the gingival retraction or abutment removal. Using the digital intraoral scanner's advanced functions, the operator could shorten the total treatment time. So that both the patient and the clinician could experience convenient and effective treatment, and it was possible to manufacture a prosthesis with predictability.

Estimation of channel morphology using RGB orthomosaic images from drone - focusing on the Naesung stream - (드론 RGB 정사영상 기반 하도 지형 공간 추정 방법 - 내성천 중심으로 -)

  • Woo-Chul, KANG;Kyng-Su, LEE;Eun-Kyung, JANG
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.136-150
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    • 2022
  • In this study, a comparative review was conducted on how to use RGB images to obtain river topographic information, which is one of the most essential data for eco-friendly river management and flood level analysis. In terms of the topographic information of river zone, to obtain the topographic information of flow section is one of the difficult topic, therefore, this study focused on estimating the river topographic information of flow section through RGB images. For this study, the river topography surveying was directly conducted using ADCP and RTK-GPS, and at the same time, and orthomosiac image were created using high-resolution images obtained by drone photography. And then, the existing developed regression equations were applied to the result of channel topography surveying by ADCP and the band values of the RGB images, and the channel bathymetry in the study area was estimated using the regression equation that showed the best predictability. In addition, CCHE2D flow modeling was simulated to perform comparative verification of the topographical informations. The modeling result with the image-based topographical information provided better water depth and current velocity simulation results, when it compared to the directly measured topographical information for which measurement of the sub-section was not performed. It is concluded that river topographic information could be obtained from RGB images, and if additional research was conducted, it could be used as a method of obtaining efficient river topographic information for river management.

A Study on Forecasting Manpower Demand for Smart Shipping and Port Logistics (스마트 해운항만물류 인력 수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Sang-Hoon Shin;Yong-John Shin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2023
  • Trend analysis and time series analysis were conducted to predict the demand of manpower under the smartization of shipping and port logistics with transportation survey data of Statistic Korea during the period from 2000 to 2020 and Statistical Yearbook data of Korean Seafarers from 2004 to 2021. A linear regression model was adopted since the validity of the model was evaluated as the highest in forecasting manpower demand in the shipping and port logistics industry. As a result of forecasting the demand of manpower in autonomous ship, remote ship management, smart shipping business, smart port, smart warehouse, and port logistics service from 2021 to 2035, the demand for smart shipping and port logistics personnel was predicted to increase to 8,953 in 2023, 20,688 in 2030, and 26,557 in 2035. This study aimed to increase the predictability of manpower demand through objective estimation analysis, which has been rarely conducted in the smart shipping and port logistics industry. Finally, the result of this research may help establish future strategies for human resource development for professionals in smart shipping and port logistics by utilizing the demand forecasting model described in this paper.

Context Prediction Using Right and Wrong Patterns to Improve Sequential Matching Performance for More Accurate Dynamic Context-Aware Recommendation (보다 정확한 동적 상황인식 추천을 위해 정확 및 오류 패턴을 활용하여 순차적 매칭 성능이 개선된 상황 예측 방법)

  • Kwon, Oh-Byung
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.51-67
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    • 2009
  • Developing an agile recommender system for nomadic users has been regarded as a promising application in mobile and ubiquitous settings. To increase the quality of personalized recommendation in terms of accuracy and elapsed time, estimating future context of the user in a correct way is highly crucial. Traditionally, time series analysis and Makovian process have been adopted for such forecasting. However, these methods are not adequate in predicting context data, only because most of context data are represented as nominal scale. To resolve these limitations, the alignment-prediction algorithm has been suggested for context prediction, especially for future context from the low-level context. Recently, an ontological approach has been proposed for guided context prediction without context history. However, due to variety of context information, acquiring sufficient context prediction knowledge a priori is not easy in most of service domains. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to propose a novel context prediction methodology, which does not require a priori knowledge, and to increase accuracy and decrease elapsed time for service response. To do so, we have newly developed pattern-based context prediction approach. First of ail, a set of individual rules is derived from each context attribute using context history. Then a pattern consisted of results from reasoning individual rules, is developed for pattern learning. If at least one context property matches, say R, then regard the pattern as right. If the pattern is new, add right pattern, set the value of mismatched properties = 0, freq = 1 and w(R, 1). Otherwise, increase the frequency of the matched right pattern by 1 and then set w(R,freq). After finishing training, if the frequency is greater than a threshold value, then save the right pattern in knowledge base. On the other hand, if at least one context property matches, say W, then regard the pattern as wrong. If the pattern is new, modify the result into wrong answer, add right pattern, and set frequency to 1 and w(W, 1). Or, increase the matched wrong pattern's frequency by 1 and then set w(W, freq). After finishing training, if the frequency value is greater than a threshold level, then save the wrong pattern on the knowledge basis. Then, context prediction is performed with combinatorial rules as follows: first, identify current context. Second, find matched patterns from right patterns. If there is no pattern matched, then find a matching pattern from wrong patterns. If a matching pattern is not found, then choose one context property whose predictability is higher than that of any other properties. To show the feasibility of the methodology proposed in this paper, we collected actual context history from the travelers who had visited the largest amusement park in Korea. As a result, 400 context records were collected in 2009. Then we randomly selected 70% of the records as training data. The rest were selected as testing data. To examine the performance of the methodology, prediction accuracy and elapsed time were chosen as measures. We compared the performance with case-based reasoning and voting methods. Through a simulation test, we conclude that our methodology is clearly better than CBR and voting methods in terms of accuracy and elapsed time. This shows that the methodology is relatively valid and scalable. As a second round of the experiment, we compared a full model to a partial model. A full model indicates that right and wrong patterns are used for reasoning the future context. On the other hand, a partial model means that the reasoning is performed only with right patterns, which is generally adopted in the legacy alignment-prediction method. It turned out that a full model is better than a partial model in terms of the accuracy while partial model is better when considering elapsed time. As a last experiment, we took into our consideration potential privacy problems that might arise among the users. To mediate such concern, we excluded such context properties as date of tour and user profiles such as gender and age. The outcome shows that preserving privacy is endurable. Contributions of this paper are as follows: First, academically, we have improved sequential matching methods to predict accuracy and service time by considering individual rules of each context property and learning from wrong patterns. Second, the proposed method is found to be quite effective for privacy preserving applications, which are frequently required by B2C context-aware services; the privacy preserving system applying the proposed method successfully can also decrease elapsed time. Hence, the method is very practical in establishing privacy preserving context-aware services. Our future research issues taking into account some limitations in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, user acceptance or usability will be tested with actual users in order to prove the value of the prototype system. Second, we will apply the proposed method to more general application domains as this paper focused on tourism in amusement park.

Forecasting Brown Planthopper Infestation in Korea using Statistical Models based on Climatic tele-connections (기후 원격상관 기반 통계모형을 활용한 국내 벼멸구 발생 예측)

  • Kim, Kwang-Hyung;Cho, Jeapil;Lee, Yong-Hwan
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.55 no.2
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    • pp.139-148
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    • 2016
  • A seasonal outlook for crop insect pests is most valuable when it provides accurate information for timely management decisions. In this study, we investigated probable tele-connections between climatic phenomena and pest infestations in Korea using a statistical method. A rice insect pest, brown planthopper (BPH), was selected because of its migration characteristics, which fits well with the concept of our statistical modelling - utilizing a long-term, multi-regional influence of selected climatic phenomena to predict a dominant biological event at certain time and place. Variables of the seasonal climate forecast from 10 climate models were used as a predictor, and annual infestation area for BPH as a predictand in the statistical analyses. The Moving Window Regression model showed high correlation between the national infestation trends of BPH in South Korea and selected tempo-spatial climatic variables along with its sequential migration path. Overall, the statistical models developed in this study showed a promising predictability for BPH infestation in Korea, although the dynamical relationships between the infestation and selected climatic phenomena need to be further elucidated.