• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.18-26
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• 2015

This study is a fundamental research to suggest a forecasting model for short-term railway passenger demand focusing on major lines (Gyeungbu, Honam, Jeonla, Janghang, Jungang) of Saemaeul rail and Mugunghwa rail. Also the author tried to verify the potential application of the proposed models. For this study, SARIMA model considering characteristics of seasonal trip is basically used, and daily mean forecasting models are independently constructed depending on weekday/weekend in order to consider characteristics of weekday/weekend trip and a legal holiday trip. Furthermore, intervention events having an impact on using the train such as introduction of new lines or EXPO are reflected in the model to increase reliability of the model. Finally, proposed models are confirmed to have high accuracy and reliability by verifying predictability of models. The proposed models of this research will be expected to utilize for establishing a plan for short-term operation of lines.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.84-94
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• 2018

In order to overcome the limitation of deterministic forecast, an ensemble forecasting system for regional ocean wave is developed. This system predicts ocean wind waves based on the meteorological forcing from the Ensemble Prediction System for Global of the Korea Meteorological Administration, which is consisted of 24 ensemble members. The ensemble wave forecasting system is evaluated by using the moored buoy data around Korea. The root mean squared error (RMSE) of ensemble mean showed the better performance than the deterministic forecast system after 2 days, especially RMSE of ensemble mean is improved by 15% compared with the deterministic forecast for 3-day lead time. It means that the ensemble method could reduce the uncertainty of the deterministic prediction system. The Relative Operating Characteristic as an evaluation scheme of probability prediction was bigger than 0.9 showing high predictability, meaning that the ensemble wave forecast could be usefully applied.

• Physical Therapy Korea
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.47-65
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• 2002

This study examined the correlations among the Berg Balance Scale, which is a clinical tool used to evaluate balance ability, spatiotemporal parameters of gait, and falling; determined the parameters most closely related to falling; and identified a discriminatory parameter and its predictability. Thirty-four subjects aged 72 to 92 years participated in this study. Following a questionnaire survey about falling, the Berg Balance Scale and spatiotemporal parameters of gait were measured. The results revealed that the incidence of falls increased with aging and an accompanying reduction in the flexion range of motion of the hip joint. The gait characteristics of elderly people who fell easily included a slower walking speed, shorter stride, and longer stance time than other elderly. When the cutoff score was set at 45, the Berg Balance Scale was able to identify correctly those individuals who truly have experience of falling than when the cutoff score was set at 39. But when the cutoff score was set at 39, the scale's specificity identifying correctly those individuals who truly have not experience of falling was higher than at the cutoff score of 45. Therefore, the Berg Balance Scale is an appropriate screening method in a clinical setting for the early detection of elderly people at risk of falling. In conclusion, elderly people with a Berg Balance Scale score. below 45 are the most likely to fall owing to their decreased balance ability.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.9 no.6
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• pp.151-158
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• 2010

In line with the requirement of appropriate protocol support for such mission-critical wireless sensor network (WSN) applications as patient monitoring, we investigate the framework for designing medium access control (MAC) schemes. The data traffic in medical systems comes with inherent traffic heterogeneity as well as strict requirement of reliability according to the varied extents of devise-wise criticality in separate cases. This implies that the quality-of-Service (QoS) issues are very distinctly delicate requiring specialized consideration. Besides, there are features in such systems that can be exploited during the design of a MAC scheme. In a monitoring or routine surveillance application, there are degrees of regularity or predictability in traffic as coordinated from a node of central control. The coordinator thus takes on the role of marshaling the resources in a neighborhood of nodes deployed mostly for upstream traffic; in a collision-free scheme, it schedules the time slots for each superframe based on the QoS specifications. In this preliminary study, we identify the key artifacts of such a MAC scheme. We also present basic performance issues like the impact of superframe length on delay incurred, energy efficiency achieved in the network operation as obtained in a typical simulation setup based on this framework.

• Journal of Arbitration Studies
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.187-213
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• 2012

The purpose of this article is to examine Fair and Equitable Treatment in International Investment Agreements. Most BITs and other investment treaties provide for FET of foreign investments. Today, this concept is the most frequently invoked standard in investment disputes. It is also the standard with the highest practical relevance: a majority of successful claims pursued in international arbitration are based on a violation of the FET standard. The concept of FET is not new but has appeared in international documents for some time. Some of these documents were nonbinding others entered into force as multilateral or bilateral treaties. Considerable debate has surrounded the question of whether the FET standard merely reflects the internationalminimum standard, as contained in customary international law, or offers an autonomous standard that is additional to general international law. As a matter of textual interpretation, it seems implausible that a treaty would refer to a well-known concept like the "minimum standard of treatment in customary international law" by using the expression "fair and equitable treatment." Broad definitions or descriptions are not the only way to gauge the meaning of an elusive concept such as FET. Another method is to identify typical factual situations to which this principle has been applied. An examination of the practice of tribunals demonstrates that several principles can be identified that are embraced by the standard of fair and equitable treatment. Some of the cases discussed clearly speak to the central roles of transparency, stability, and the investor's legitimate expectations in the current understanding of the FET standard. Other contexts in which the standard has been applied concern compliance with contractual obligations, procedural propriety and due process, action in good faith, and freedom from coercion and harassment. In short, meeting the investor's central legitimate concern of legal consistency, stability, and predictability remains a major, but not the only, ingredient of an investment-friendly climate in which the host state in turn can reasonably expect to attract foreign investment.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.28 no.12
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• pp.1133-1145
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• 2019

Successful launch requires state-of-the-art launch vehicle technology and constant test operations, However, the meteorological threat to the launch vehicle flight trajectory is also an important factor for launch success. Atmospheric stability above the Naro Space Center at the this time is very important, especially because the initial flight operation can determine the success of the launch. Moreover, during the flight of launch vehicle with rapid pressure and thrust into the atmosphere, convection activity in the atmosphere may create environmental conditions that cause severe weather threats such as thunderstorms. Hence, studies of atmospheric instability characteristics over the Naro Space Center are a necessary part of successful launch missions. Therefore, the main aims of this study were to (1) verify the atmospheric stability index and convection activity characteristics over the Naro Space Center using radiosonde data observed from 2007 to 2018 by the Naro Space Center, (2) analyze changes in the atmospheric stability index according to monthly and seasonal changes, and (3) assess how the calculated atmospheric stability index is related to actual thunderstorm occurrence using statistical analysis. Additionally, we aimed to investigate the atmospheric characteristics above the Naro Space Center through the distribution chart of the atmospheric stability index during summer, when convection activity is highest. Finally, we assessed the relationship between lightning occurrence and unstable atmospheric conditions, through predictability analysis performed using the lightning observation data of the Korea Meteorological Administration.

• Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.14-19
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• 2018

Recently, the smart health care industry has been rising rapidly and interest and efforts for public health have been greatly increased. As a result, the public does not visit medical specialists and medical facilities, but the desire to check their health condition in everyday life is increased. Therefore, many domestic and foreign companies continuously research and develop wearable devices that can measure body activity information anytime and anywhere And the market. Especially, it is used for heart activity measurement device using pulse wave sensor and electrocardiogram sensor. However, in this study, a monitoring system that can detect cardiac activity using cardiac sounds, heart sound measurement rather than pulse wave measurement and electrocardiogram measurement, was performed and its performance was evaluated. Experimental results confirmed the predictability of cardiac heart rate and heart valve disease during daily living.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.35-45
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• 2016

Initialization of the global seasonal forecast system is as much important as the quality of the embedded climate model for the climate prediction in sub-seasonal time scale. Recent studies have emphasized the important role of soil moisture initialization, suggesting a significant increase in the prediction skill particularly in the mid-latitude land area where the influence of sea surface temperature in the tropics is less crucial and the potential predictability is supplemented by land-atmosphere interaction. This study developed a new soil moisture initialization method applicable to the KMA operational seasonal forecasting system. The method includes first the long-term integration of the offline land surface model driven by observed atmospheric forcing and precipitation. This soil moisture reanalysis is given for the initial state in the ensemble seasonal forecasts through a simple anomaly initialization technique to avoid the simulation drift caused by the systematic model bias. To evaluate the impact of the soil moisture initialization, two sets of long-term, 10-member ensemble experiment runs have been conducted for 1996~2009. As a result, the soil moisture initialization improves the prediction skill of surface air temperature significantly at the zero to one month forecast lead (up to ~60 days forecast lead), although the skill increase in precipitation is less significant. This study suggests that improvements of the prediction in the sub-seasonal timescale require the improvement in the quality of initial data as well as the adequate treatment of the model systematic bias.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.49 no.9
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• pp.789-798
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• 2016

Frequent algal blooms at major river systems in Korea have been serious social and environmental problems. Especially, the appearance of cyanobacteria with toxic materials is a threat to secure a safe drinking water. In order to model the behaviour of cyanobacteria cell number, an exclusive causality analysis using prewhitening technique was introduced to delineate effective parameters to predict the cell numbers of cyanobacteria in Seungchon Weir and Juksan Weir along Youngsan river system. Both input and output transfer function models were obtained to explain temporal variation of cyanobacteria cell number. A threshold behaviour of water temperature was implemented into the model development to consider winter characteristic of cyanobacteria. The implementation of water temperature threshold into the model structure improves the predictability in simulation. Even though the input output transfer model cannot completely explained all blooms of cyanobacteria, the simple structure of model provide a feasibility in application which can be important in practical aspect.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.278-286
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• 2011

Introduction: This study examined the predictability of new bone formation in the pneumatized maxillary sinus using only fibrin-rich blocks with concentrated growth factors as an alternative to bone grafts. Materials and Methods: Maxillary sinus augmentation was performed in thirty-three patients with a deficient alveolar bone height (mean 3.9 mm). All patients were treated consecutively with sinus membrane elevation via the lateral window approach and panoramic radiograms and cone-beam computed tomograms were taken to evaluate the remaining bone height and the new bone formation in the maxillary sinus, before and after surgery. Four biopsy specimens were taken at the time of implant consolidation (after an average of five months healing) and were stained by H & E and Trichrome staining. Results: None of the patients had postoperative complications during implant consolidation. After an average of 5 months since sinus augmentation, newly formed bone was observed in all cases by a radiographic evaluation. In 4 biopsy samples, newly formed bone was observed along the floor of the replaced bony window. The osteoblast lining and well distinguished Osteocytes in the lacunas were observed in the newly formed bone. Of the 74 implants (4 different surfaced implants - resorbable blast media-surfaced (RBM), Hydroxyapatite (HA) coated, acid-etched, sintered porous-surfaced implant) placed, one RBM implant failed. The success rate was 98.6% after a mean of 15 months. Discussion: These results suggest that maxillary sinus augmentation using fibrin rich block with concentrated growth factors is a successful and predictable technique.