• 제목/요약/키워드: Time Series Prediction Model

검색결과 583건 처리시간 0.023초

Modeling Stock Price Volatility: Empirical Evidence from the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange in Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Cuong Thanh;NGUYEN, Manh Huu
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • 제6권3호
    • /
    • pp.19-26
    • /
    • 2019
  • The paper aims to measure stock price volatility on Ho Chi Minh stock exchange (HSX). We apply symmetric models (GARCH, GARCH-M) and asymmetry (EGARCH and TGARCH) to measure stock price volatility on HSX. We used time series data including the daily closed price of VN-Index during 1/03/2001-1/03/2019 with 4375 observations. The results show that GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models are the most suitable models to measure both symmetry and asymmetry volatility level of VN-Index. The study also provides evidence for the existence of asymmetric effects (leverage) through the parameters of TGARCH model (1,1), showing that positive shocks have a significant effect on the conditional variance (volatility). This result implies that the volatility of stock returns has a big impact on future market movements under the impact of shocks, while asymmetric volatility increase market risk, thus increase the attractiveness of the stock market. The research results are useful reference information to help investors in forecasting the expected profit rate of the HSX, and also the risks along with market fluctuations in order to take appropriate adjust to the portfolios. From this study's results, we can see risk prediction models such as GARCH can be better used in risk forecasting especially.

Modeling of Compressive Strength Development of High-Early-Strength-Concrete at Different Curing Temperatures

  • Lee, Chadon;Lee, Songhee;Nguyen, Ngocchien
    • International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
    • /
    • 제10권2호
    • /
    • pp.205-219
    • /
    • 2016
  • High-early-strength-concrete (HESC) made of Type III cement reaches approximately 50-70 % of its design compressive strength in a day in ambient conditions. Experimental investigations were made in this study to observe the effects of temperature, curing time and concrete strength on the accelerated development of compressive strength in HESC. A total of 210 HESC cylinders of $100{\times}200mm$ were tested for different compressive strengths (30, 40 and 50 MPa) and different curing regimes (with maximum temperatures of 20, 30, 40, 50 and $60^{\circ}C$) at different equivalent ages (9, 12, 18, 24, 36, 100 and 168 h) From a series of regression analyses, a generalized rate-constant model was presented for the prediction of the compressive strength of HESC at an early age for its future application in precast prestressed units with savings in steam supply. The average and standard deviation of the ratios of the predictions to the test results were 0.97 and 0.22, respectively.

지구기후모형 기온변화에 따른 미래 하천생태환경에서의 수온 예측 (Prediction of Climate-induced Water Temperature using Nonlinear Air-water Temperature Relationship for Aquatic Environments)

  • 이길하
    • 한국환경과학회지
    • /
    • 제25권6호
    • /
    • pp.877-888
    • /
    • 2016
  • To project the effects of climate-induced change on aquatic environments, it is necessary to determine the thermal constraints affecting different fish species and to acquire time series of the current and projected water temperature (WT). Assuming that a nonlinear regression between the WT at individual stations and the ambient air temperature (AT) at nearby weather stations could represent the best relationship of air-water temperature, This study estimates future WT using a general circulation model (GCM). In addition, assuming that the grid-averaged observations of AT correspond to the AT output from GCM simulation, this study constructed a regression curve between the observations of the local WT and the concurrent GCM-simulated surface AT. Because of its low spatial resolution, downscaling is unavoidable. The projected WT under global warming scenario A2 (B2) shows an increase of about $1.6^{\circ}C$ ($0.9^{\circ}C$) for the period 2080-2100. The maximum/minimum WT shows an amount of change similar to that of the mean values. This study will provide guidelines for decision-makers and engineers in climate-induced river environment and ecosystem management.

LSTM 및 Conv1D-LSTM을 사용한 공급 사슬의 티어 예측 (Prediction of Tier in Supply Chain Using LSTM and Conv1D-LSTM)

  • 박경종
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
    • /
    • 제43권2호
    • /
    • pp.120-125
    • /
    • 2020
  • Supply chain managers seek to achieve global optimization by solving problems in the supply chain's business process. However, companies in the supply chain hide the adverse information and inform only the beneficial information, so the information is distorted and cannot be the information that describes the entire supply chain. In this case, supply chain managers can directly collect and analyze supply chain activity data to find and manage the companies described by the data. Therefore, this study proposes a method to collect the order-inventory information from each company in the supply chain and detect the companies whose data characteristics are explained through deep learning. The supply chain consists of Manufacturer, Distributor, Wholesaler, Retailer, and training and testing data uses 600 weeks of time series inventory information. The purpose of the experiment is to improve the detection accuracy by adjusting the parameter values of the deep learning network, and the parameters for comparison are set by learning rate (lr = 0.001, 0.01, 0.1) and batch size (bs = 1, 5). Experimental results show that the detection accuracy is improved by adjusting the values of the parameters, but the values of the parameters depend on data and model characteristics.

제일원리 전산모사법을 이용한 폐양액 수전해용 코발트 산화물 촉매의 흡착 이온 특성 연구 (Investigating adsorption ion characteristics on cobalt oxides catalyst in electrolysis of waste alkaline solutions using ab-initio study)

  • 우주완;이종민;서민호
    • 한국표면공학회지
    • /
    • 제56권6호
    • /
    • pp.427-436
    • /
    • 2023
  • In the industry, it is recognized that human activities significantly lead to a large amount of wastewater, mainly due to the increased use of water and energy. As a result, the growing field of wastewater resource technology is getting more attention. The common technology for hydrogen production, water electrolysis, requires purified water, leading to the need for desalination and reprocessing. However, producing hydrogen directly from wastewater could be a more cost-effective option compared to traditional methods. To achieve this, a series of first-principle computational simulations were conducted to assess how waste nutrient ions affect standard electrolysis catalysts. This study focused on understanding the adsorption mechanisms of byproducts related to the oxygen evolution reaction (OER) in anion exchange membrane (AEM) electrolysis, using Co3O4 as a typical non-precious metal catalyst. At the same time, efforts were made to develop a comprehensive free energy prediction model for more accurate predictions of OER results.

횡단면분석과 추세분석을 이용한 슈퍼컴퓨팅 성능수요 예측 (Supercomputing Performance Demand Forecasting Using Cross-sectional and Time Series Analysis)

  • 박만희
    • 기술혁신연구
    • /
    • 제23권2호
    • /
    • pp.33-54
    • /
    • 2015
  • 국가차원의 슈퍼컴퓨팅 성능수요 예측은 슈퍼컴퓨터를 활용하는 계산과학분야의 연구자나 연구개발 인프라를 구축 운영하고 있는 전문기관, 과학기술 인프라구축을 주도할 정부기관에 있어서 매우 중요한 정보이다. 본 연구는 그동안 진행되었던 슈퍼컴퓨터 성능관련 예측활동 분석을 통해 과학기술 역량에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 도출하고 이를 슈퍼컴퓨터 기술진보 추세에 적용한 복합 예측모형을 제안하였다. 횡단면분석에서는 슈퍼컴퓨팅 성능에 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단되는 GDP, GERD, 연구원수, SCI논문수를 고려한 다중회귀분석을 수행하였다. 그리고 횡단면분석 결과에 Top500 자료의 성능(Rmax)값을 이용한 시계열분석을 통해 도출된 기간별 기술진보율을 곱하여 슈퍼컴퓨터의 성능을 예측하였다. 제안된 예측모형을 바탕으로 세계 슈퍼컴퓨터 500위의 시계열자료를 이용하여 한국이 2016년에 보유해야 할 슈퍼컴퓨터 성능규모를 예측하였다. 횡단면분석과 기술진보율을 적용하여 2016년 한국의 슈퍼컴퓨팅 성능수요를 예측해본 결과 현재의 추세를 이용할 경우 15~30PF 정도, 목표 국가수준의 추세를 이용할 때 20~40PF 정도의 컴퓨팅 역량이 필요할 것으로 예측되었다. 이 결과는 단순 회귀분석을 적용한 결과인 9.6PF와 횡단면분석을 적용한 결과인 2.5PF와 큰 차이를 나타내었다.

공간 빅데이터를 활용한 행위자 기반 전염병 확산 예측 모형 구축에 관한 연구 -서울특별시 메르스 사태를 중심으로- (A Study on the Agent Based Infection Prediction Model Using Space Big Data -focusing on MERS-CoV incident in Seoul-)

  • 전상은;신동빈
    • 한국지리정보학회지
    • /
    • 제21권2호
    • /
    • pp.94-106
    • /
    • 2018
  • 역학 모델은 질병 확산에 대한 시뮬레이션 및 관련 방역대책을 수립하는데 유용하며, 개체들의 접촉을 통해 전파되는 질병의 공간 확산에 대한 자세한 이해를 가능하게 한다. 이 연구에서는 공간에서 개체 간의 상호작요에 의한 결과로 메르스 전염병의 확산을 실시간적으로 시뮬레이션하기 위해 공간 빅데이터와 통합된 행위자 기반 공간 모델을 제안하고자 한다. 설계된 모델은 모집단, 시간, 공간이라는 세 요소를 고려하여 병원간의 직접접촉을 묘사하였다. 모집단의 역학관계는 2015년 서울특별시에서 발생한 메르스 사례를 기준으로 하였으며, 도로를 이동하는 사람과 메르스 환자가 발생한 병원과의 직접접촉으로 전염병이 전파하는 것으로 설계하였다. 모델을 이용하여 메르스 발생 상황을 예측하면서 시계열별로 실제 메르스 확산과 본 모형의 결과를 비교분석 하여 모형의 타당성을 검증하였으며, 다양한 시나리오를 적용해서 모의실험을 수행하였다. 메르스 발생 상황에서 방역 전략을 선정하기 위해 제시된 방법을 이용하여 방역조치를 다양하게 실험하는 것은 메르스 확산을 통제하는데 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 기대된다.

Experimental verification of the linear and non-linear versions of a panel code

  • Grigoropoulos, G.J.;Katsikis, C.;Chalkias, D.S.
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
    • /
    • 제3권1호
    • /
    • pp.27-36
    • /
    • 2011
  • In the proposed paper numerical calculations are carried out using two versions of a three-dimensional, timedomain panel method developed by the group of Prof. P. Sclavounos at MIT, i.e. the linear code SWAN2, enabling optionally the use of the instantaneous non-linear Froude-Krylov and hydrostatic forces and the fully non-linear SWAN4. The analytical results are compared with experimental results for three hull forms with increasing geometrical complexity, the Series 60, a reefer vessel with stern bulb and a modern fast ROPAX hull form with hollow bottom in the stern region. The details of the geometrical modeling of the hull forms are discussed. In addition, since SWAN4 does not support transom sterns, only the two versions of SWAN2 were evaluated over experimental results for the parent hull form of the NTUA double-chine, wide-transom, high-speed monohull series. The effect of speed on the numerical predictions was investigated. It is concluded that both versions of SWAN2 the linear and the one with the non-linear Froude-Krylov and hydrostatic forces provide a more robust tool for prediction of the dynamic response of the vessels than the non-linear SWAN4 code. In general, their results are close to what was expected on the basis of experience. Furthermore, the use of the option of non-linear Froude-Krylov and hydrostatic forces is beneficial for the accuracy of the predictions. The content of the paper is based on the Diploma thesis of the second author, supervised by the first one and further refined by the third one.

조선 해양 구조물용 강재의 소성 및 파단 특성 IV: 고온 기계적 물성치에 관한 실험적 연구 (Plasticity and Fracture Behaviors of Marine Structural Steel, Part IV: Experimental Study on Mechanical Properties at Elevated Temperatures)

  • 정준모;임성우;박노식
    • 한국해양공학회지
    • /
    • 제25권3호
    • /
    • pp.66-72
    • /
    • 2011
  • This is the fourth of a series of companion papers dealing with the mechanical property reductions of various marine structural steels. Even though a reduction of the elastic modulus according to temperature increases has not been obtained from experiments, high temperature experiments from room temperature to $900^{\circ}C$ revealed that initial the yield strength and tensile strength are both seriously degraded. The mechanical properties obtained from high temperature experiments are compared with those from EC3 (Eurocode 3). It is found that the high temperature test results generally comply with the prediction values by EC3. Based on the prediction of EC3, time domain nonlinear finite element analyses were carried out for a blast wall installed on a real FPSO. After applying the reduced mechanical properties, corresponding to $600^{\circ}C$ to the FE model of the blast wall, more than three times the deflections were observed and it was observed that most structural parts experience plastic deformations exceeding the reduced yield strength at the high temperature. It is noted that a protection facility such as PFP (passive fire protection) should be required for structures likely to be directly exposed to fire and explosion accident.

다분류 SVM을 이용한 DEA기반 벤처기업 효율성등급 예측모형 (The Prediction of DEA based Efficiency Rating for Venture Business Using Multi-class SVM)

  • 박지영;홍태호
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
    • /
    • 제19권2호
    • /
    • pp.139-155
    • /
    • 2009
  • For the last few decades, many studies have tried to explore and unveil venture companies' success factors and unique features in order to identify the sources of such companies' competitive advantages over their rivals. Such venture companies have shown tendency to give high returns for investors generally making the best use of information technology. For this reason, many venture companies are keen on attracting avid investors' attention. Investors generally make their investment decisions by carefully examining the evaluation criteria of the alternatives. To them, credit rating information provided by international rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and Fitch is crucial source as to such pivotal concerns as companies stability, growth, and risk status. But these types of information are generated only for the companies issuing corporate bonds, not venture companies. Therefore, this study proposes a method for evaluating venture businesses by presenting our recent empirical results using financial data of Korean venture companies listed on KOSDAQ in Korea exchange. In addition, this paper used multi-class SVM for the prediction of DEA-based efficiency rating for venture businesses, which was derived from our proposed method. Our approach sheds light on ways to locate efficient companies generating high level of profits. Above all, in determining effective ways to evaluate a venture firm's efficiency, it is important to understand the major contributing factors of such efficiency. Therefore, this paper is constructed on the basis of following two ideas to classify which companies are more efficient venture companies: i) making DEA based multi-class rating for sample companies and ii) developing multi-class SVM-based efficiency prediction model for classifying all companies. First, the Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is a non-parametric multiple input-output efficiency technique that measures the relative efficiency of decision making units(DMUs) using a linear programming based model. It is non-parametric because it requires no assumption on the shape or parameters of the underlying production function. DEA has been already widely applied for evaluating the relative efficiency of DMUs. Recently, a number of DEA based studies have evaluated the efficiency of various types of companies, such as internet companies and venture companies. It has been also applied to corporate credit ratings. In this study we utilized DEA for sorting venture companies by efficiency based ratings. The Support Vector Machine(SVM), on the other hand, is a popular technique for solving data classification problems. In this paper, we employed SVM to classify the efficiency ratings in IT venture companies according to the results of DEA. The SVM method was first developed by Vapnik (1995). As one of many machine learning techniques, SVM is based on a statistical theory. Thus far, the method has shown good performances especially in generalizing capacity in classification tasks, resulting in numerous applications in many areas of business, SVM is basically the algorithm that finds the maximum margin hyperplane, which is the maximum separation between classes. According to this method, support vectors are the closest to the maximum margin hyperplane. If it is impossible to classify, we can use the kernel function. In the case of nonlinear class boundaries, we can transform the inputs into a high-dimensional feature space, This is the original input space and is mapped into a high-dimensional dot-product space. Many studies applied SVM to the prediction of bankruptcy, the forecast a financial time series, and the problem of estimating credit rating, In this study we employed SVM for developing data mining-based efficiency prediction model. We used the Gaussian radial function as a kernel function of SVM. In multi-class SVM, we adopted one-against-one approach between binary classification method and two all-together methods, proposed by Weston and Watkins(1999) and Crammer and Singer(2000), respectively. In this research, we used corporate information of 154 companies listed on KOSDAQ market in Korea exchange. We obtained companies' financial information of 2005 from the KIS(Korea Information Service, Inc.). Using this data, we made multi-class rating with DEA efficiency and built multi-class prediction model based data mining. Among three manners of multi-classification, the hit ratio of the Weston and Watkins method is the best in the test data set. In multi classification problems as efficiency ratings of venture business, it is very useful for investors to know the class with errors, one class difference, when it is difficult to find out the accurate class in the actual market. So we presented accuracy results within 1-class errors, and the Weston and Watkins method showed 85.7% accuracy in our test samples. We conclude that the DEA based multi-class approach in venture business generates more information than the binary classification problem, notwithstanding its efficiency level. We believe this model can help investors in decision making as it provides a reliably tool to evaluate venture companies in the financial domain. For the future research, we perceive the need to enhance such areas as the variable selection process, the parameter selection of kernel function, the generalization, and the sample size of multi-class.