• 제목/요약/키워드: Theory of judgement

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Forecasting Project Cost and Time using Fuzzy Set Theory and Contractors' Judgment

  • Alshibani, Adel
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.174-178
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    • 2015
  • This paper presents a new method for forecasting construction project cost and time at completion or at any intermediate time horizon of the project duration. The method is designed to overcome identified limitations of current applications of earned value method in forecasting project cost and time. The proposed method usesfuzzy set theory to model uncertainties associated with project performance and it integrates the earned value technique and the contractors' judgement. The fuzzy set theory is applied as an alternative approach to deterministic and probabilistic methods. Using fuzzy set theory allows contractors to: (1) perform risk analysis for different scenarios of project performance indices, and (2) perform different scenarios expressing vagueness and imprecision of forecasted project cost and time using a set of measures and indices. Unlike the current applications of Earned Value Method(EVM), The proposed method has a numberof interesting features: (1) integrating contractors' judgement in forecasting project performance; (2) enabling contractors to evaluate the risk associated with cost overrun in much simpler method comparing with that of simulation, and (3) accounting for uncertainties involved in the forecasting project cost.

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직관주의적 유형론에서의 분석성과 완전성 (Analyticity and Completeness in Intuitionistic Type Theory)

  • 정인교
    • 논리연구
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    • 제14권3호
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    • pp.101-137
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    • 2011
  • 마틴뢰프는 그의 직관주의적 유형론에서의 판단형식들에 관한 분석에 의거하여, 통상적인 논리법칙들과 수학의 흥미로운 판단들은 분석판단이 아닌 종합판단에 해당하며, 분석판단의 논리는 결정가능하고 완전하지만 종합판단의 논리는 결정가능하지 않으며 불완전하다고 주장한다. 이 글의 목적은 마틴뢰프의 논지를 보다 분명히 하여 검토하려는 것이다. 1절에서 필자가 이해한 단형 유형론의 기본 사항들을 검토한 후, 2절에서는 마틴뢰프의 분석/종합 구분을 보다 분명히 드러내고, 마틴뢰프의 구분에 대한 가능한 비판 및 '통상적인 논리법칙들과 수학의 흥미로운 판단들은 종합판단에 해당한다'는 논제를 검토한다. 3절에서는 '분석판단의 논리는 결정가능하고 완전하지만 종합판단의 논리는 결정가능하지 않으며 불완전하다'는 논제를 보다 분명히 드러내어 검토한다.

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SCADA에서의 설비 오조작 방지를 위한 방사상계통 자동판별시스템 개발 (Development of Automatic Judgement System of Radial T/L System for Preventing Power Device's Wrong Control in SCADA)

  • 전동훈;김태원;심정운;김건중
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제57권1호
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we proposed the method judging whether transmission system is radial system or loop system using simple set theory. And we proposed the method judging whether power device's operation causes of blackout or not. Using proposed method, we developed automatic judgement system of radial system for preventing power device's wrong control in SCADA. Finally, we simulated a variety of case study using SCADA simulator with developed system, and verified reliability of the result and performance of developed system.

A Study on the Introduction of Fuzzy system into the Decision-Making process of HVAC designers

  • Woo, Se-Jin
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.12-17
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    • 2004
  • This study is designed to grope for logical methods in the decision-making process of human beings such as creation and analysis. With this in mind, the paper worked with a process where the designers of a design team gather and analyze their opinions in a design process to decide on the HVAC system of buildings. The paper introduced the fuzzy theory, or one of the methods to quantitatively describe language values with ambiguous features, suggesting a method to determine the judgement and suggestion values of the HVAC designers with the characteristics of language variables as the values of design factors greatly influencing the HVAC system. As a result, the paper tested the possibility of the fuzzy system as a logical method to gather the judgement of HVAC designers in a stage of HVAC type selection exerting a great influence on the experience and judgement of the designers and having powerful linguistic features and to determine an appropriate HVAC type which can satisfy the suggested values of related design factors.

윤리교육이 간호사의 도덕판단에 미치는 영향 (Effect of Ethics Education on Nurse덕s Moral Judgement)

  • 김용순
    • 대한간호학회지
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    • 제30권1호
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    • pp.183-193
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    • 2000
  • This main purpose of this study was to assess the effects of two different types of ethics education on the moral judgement of clinical nurses. One type was free discussions among nurses with given specific moral issues and the other type was discussions guided by experts on specific moral issues. The study employed a quasi-experimental, nonequivalent pre test-post test design using two different control groups. The conceptual framework of the study was derived from the Kohlberg′s Moral Development Theory (1969) and the Greipp′s Ethical Decision-Making Model (1992). The data was collected during the period of October 14 through December 15, 1998. Sample consists of 32 nurses working in the ICU who met research criteria. 16 nurses were assigned to the free discussion group and 16 nurses to the group for the guided discussion with experts group. For the pre-test, the DIT which was developed by Rest (1984) and JAND by Ketefian (1998) were used with some modification by the author. After the education, only JAND was used to assess the changes in moral judgement. The collected data was analysed using SPSS PC program. The findings are as follows: 1. There was no significant difference between two groups in their general characteristics. Only difference which was statistically significant between two groups was that realistic score on Case 3/Medical Research and Autopsy was higher in the free discussion group. 2. Hypothesis 1: "There will be a difference on the moral judgement of nurses before and after they receive an ethics education". This hypothesis was supported partially. Those who had low scores on moral judgement before the education tended to have higher scores after the education on the same issues. And, after the education, the nurses tend to give lower scores on the dilemmas they had experienced frequently at work; while giving higher scores on those dilemmas they had no prior experience. 3. Hypothesis 2: "The effect of education may differ depended upon the moral development index [P(%)] score of nurses". The effect of education was different depend on moral development level. The group who′s P(%) scores was low at the pretest has higher scores in realistic moral judgement after the education, while the groups with middle or high P(%) scores went down after the education. These changes were statistically significant in some cases, thus, the Hypothesis 2 was partially supported 4. Hypothesis 3: "The method of ethics education will have different effects on the moral judgement of nurses". Even though several nurses attended the guided discussion stated that the education program broadend their perspectives the difference between two groups was not significant and this hypothesis was not supported. In conclusion, both types of ethics education had helped the nurses to acquire the skills to deal some nursing dilemmas. The effects of ethics education may differ according to the moral development index - P(%) score. However, because of some of the limitations of this study, mainly small sample size, short term education, unable to control other variables which may affect moral judgement of nurses, further research is warranted.er research is warranted.

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직관주의적 유형론에서의 진리개념 (The Notion of Truth in Intuitionistic Type Theory)

  • 정인교
    • 논리연구
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    • 제16권3호
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    • pp.407-436
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    • 2013
  • 이 글의 목표는 직관주의적 유형론에서의 진리개념이 어떻게 이해될 수 있는지를 검토하고, 이에 의거하여 직관주의적이면서 객관적인 진리개념을 확보하는 문제에 있어서 프라위츠의 논증보다 진전된 논증을 제시하는 것이다. 이를 위해, 직관주의적 유형론에서의 명제, 유형 및 판단의 구분을 프레게의 판단이론과 비교하며 간략히 설명한 후, 직관주의적 유형론에서의 진리판단을 분석하고, 이에 의거해 증명의 존재의 확정성이 어떻게 이해될 수 있는지 밝힐 것이다. 또한 직관주의적 유형론에서 진리판단으로서의 존재판단이 어떻게 이해되어야 하는지, 특히 왜 그것이 존재양화명제가 될 수 없는지 그 이유를 밝히고, 존재판단을 생략적 판단으로 해석하는 한 견해를 비판할 것이다. 직관주의적 유형론에서의 진리개념에 관한 이 글에서의 분석은 증명의 존재의 확정성 문제와 증명의 존재의 비명제적 성격을 분명히 한 점에서 직관주의적이고 객관적인 진리개념에 대한 프라위츠의 규정보다 진전된 형태의 설명임을 밝히고, 이런 진리개념에 대한 주관적 진리개념의 옹호자들의 한 비판에 답할 것이다.

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Fuzziness in Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (Human Factors and Reliability)

  • Nishiwaki, Yasushi
    • 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 1993년도 Fifth International Fuzzy Systems Association World Congress 93
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    • pp.1047-1050
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    • 1993
  • In radiation protection and nuclear safety, there are many uncertainties or fuzziness due to subjective human judgement. It is desirable to have a theory by which both non-probabilistic uncertainties, or fuzziness, of human factors and the probabilistic properties of machines can be treated consistently. Fuzzy set theory seems to be an effective tool for analyzing the risk and safety of complex man-machine systems such as nuclear power plants.

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노자의 가치 절대주의 (Laozi's Perspective on the Value)

  • 정달현
    • 철학연구
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    • 제141권
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    • pp.203-224
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    • 2017
  • "노자"에서 도(道)는 존재의 법칙이면서 완전한 가치이다. "노자"에서, 존재의 법칙으로서의 도는 우주의 유기적 질서를 의미하고, 완전한 가치로서의 도는 모든 가치 평가의 절대 근거이다. "노자"에서는 도를 가치 평가의 절대 근거로 하는 가치 절대주의 이외의 가치론들도 수용되지만, "노자"의 가치론의 이상은 도를 가치 평가의 절대 근거로 하는 가치 절대주의의 보편화이다. "노자"에서 성인(聖人)의 존재와 현존재들의 덕(德)의 내면화는 가치 절대주의의 보편화를 가능하게 하는 두 가지 주요 조건이다. 이러한 조건들을 구비한 현존재들은 도를 체현하게 되고, 그 결과 가치 절대주의가 보편화된다. 이 과정에서, "노자"의 가치 절대주의 이외의 다른 가치론들은 소멸하게 되어, "노자"의 도를 가치 평가의 절대 근거로 하는 가치론만이 존속한다. "노자"의 가치 절대주의가 보편화되면, 현존재들은 무위(無爲)하게 되어, 현동(玄同)이 이루어진다.

단위유량도법에 의한 소유역의 계획홍수량 결정 (A Determination of Design Flood for a small Basin by Unit Hydrograph Method)

  • 윤용남;침순보
    • 물과 미래
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.76-86
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    • 1976
  • The 30-year design flood hydrograph for the Musim Representative Basin, one of the study basins of the International Hydrological Program, is synthesized by the method of unit hydrograph. The theory of unit hydrograph has been well known for a long time. However, the synthesis of flood hydrograph by this method for a basin with insufficient hydrologic data is not an easy task and hence, assumptions and engineering judgement must be exercized. In this paper, the problems often encountered in applying the unit hydrograph method are exposed and solved in detail based on the theory and rational judgement. The probability rainfall for Cheonju Station is transposed to the Musim Basin since it has not been analyzed due to short period of rainfall record. The duration of design rainfall was estimated based on the time of concentration for the watershed. The effective rainfall was determined from the design rainfall using the SCS method which is commonly used for a small basin. The spatial distribution of significant storms was expressed as a dimensionless rainfall mass curve and hence, it was possible to determine the hyetograph of effective design storm. To synthesize the direct runoff hydrograph the 15-min. unit hydrograph was derived by the S-Curve method from the 1-hr unit hydrograph which was obtained from the observed rainfall and runoff data, and then it was applied to the design hyetograph. The exsisting maximum groundwater depletion curve was derived by the base flow seperation. Hence, the design flood hydrograph was obtained by superimposing the groundwater depletion curve to the computed direct runoff hydrograph resulting from the design storm.

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감성 만족도의 정량화를 위한 퍼지 소속 함수 개발 (Development of Fuzzy Membership Function for Emotional Satisfaction Quantification)

  • 박준석;명노해
    • 대한인간공학회지
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    • 제23권2호
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    • pp.37-54
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    • 2004
  • Fuzzy theory provides an intelligence treatment model for judgement about information when it needs a solution or a decision making about vague problems. Therefore, fuzzy theory is used for appropriate evaluation and decision on obscure information as human's emotion in human factors, In previous study, fuzzy membership function is defined for judgement infOlmation as human's emotion then ultimate results are deducted through fuzzy inference model. This method uses general CWTent through literature review or max, min and average as representative statics value about considering variables. But, this method makes away with nonlinear's or inegular's factors of human sensibility. Accordingly, application of this method leads to considerable loss of information in the ultimate evaluation. For that reason, this method has a limitation in objective evaluation of human factors. So, this study focuses on development of fuzzy membership function, which evaluates human's emotion or feeling accurately and objectively. We used the regression analysis and reasoned a fuzzy membership function about the relation of the variables. Then we verified the adequacy with the reliability through the experiment after this.