• Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.1-5
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• 2018

This paper is concerned with the modeling and identification of time series data corrupted by noise. As modeling techniques, nonsingleton fuzzy logic system (NFLS) is employed for the modeling of corrupted time series. Main characteristic of the NFLS is a fuzzy system whose inputs are modeled as fuzzy number. So the NFLS is especially useful in cases where the available training data or the input data to the fuzzy logic system are corrupted by noise. Simulation results of the Mackey-Glass time series data will be demonstrated to show the performance of the modeling methods. As a result, NFLS does a much better job of modeling noisy time series data than does a traditional Mamdani FLS.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.131-140
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• 2010

Biclustering is a method of finding meaningful subsets of objects and attributes simultaneously, which may not be detected by traditional clustering methods. It is popularly used for the analysis of microarray data representing the expression levels of genes by conditions. Usually, biclustering algorithms do not consider a sequential relation between attributes. For time series data, however, bicluster solutions should keep the time sequence. This paper proposes a new biclustering algorithm for time series data by modifying the plaid model. The proposed algorithm introduces a parameter controlling an interval between two selected time points. Also, the pruning step preventing an over-fitting problem is modified so as to eliminate only starting or ending points. Results from artificial data sets show that the proposed method is more suitable for the extraction of biclusters from time series data sets. Moreover, by using the proposed method, we find some interesting observations from real-world time-course microarray data sets and apartment price data sets in metropolitan areas.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.12 no.7
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• pp.3112-3127
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• 2018

Since time series clustering is performed without prior information, it is used for exploratory data analysis. In particular, clusters of time series with similar shapes can be used in various fields, such as business, medicine, finance, and communications. However, existing time series clustering algorithms have a problem in that time series with different shapes are included in the clusters. The reason for such a problem is that the existing algorithms do not consider the limitations on the size of the generated clusters, and use a dimension reduction method in which the information loss is large. In this paper, we propose a method to alleviate the disadvantages of existing methods and to find a better quality of cluster containing similarly shaped time series. In the data preprocessing step, we normalize the time series using z-transformation. Then, we use piecewise aggregate approximation (PAA) to reduce the dimension of the time series. In the clustering step, we use density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) to create a precluster. We then use a modified K-means algorithm to refine the preclusters containing differently shaped time series into subclusters containing only similarly shaped time series. In our experiments, our method showed better results than the existing method.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.319-331
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• 2011

In this paper, we propose automatic procedures for the model selection of various univariate time series data. Automatic model selection is important, especially in data mining with large number of time series, for example, the number (in thousands) of signals accessing a web server during a specific time period. Several methods have been proposed for automatic model selection of time series. However, most existing methods focus on linear time series models such as exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models. The key feature that distinguishes the proposed procedures from previous approaches is that the former can be used for both linear time series models and nonlinear time series models such as threshold autoregressive(TAR) models and autoregressive moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(ARMA-GARCH) models. The proposed methods select a model from among the various models in the prediction error sense. We also provide an R package autots that implements the proposed automatic model selection procedures. In this paper, we illustrate these algorithms with the artificial and real data, and describe the implementation of the autots package for R.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.17 no.6
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• pp.829-843
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• 2010

To test for the serial dependence in time series of counts data, Jung and Tremayne (2003) evaluated the size and power of several tests under the class of INARMA models based on binomial thinning operations for Poisson marginal distributions. The overdispersion phenomenon(i.e., a variance greater than the expectation) is common in the real world. Overdispersed count data can be modeled by using alternative thinning operations such as random coefficient thinning, iterated thinning, and quasi-binomial thinning. Such thinning operations can lead to time series models of counts with negative binomial or generalized Poisson marginal distributions. This paper examines whether the test statistics used by Jung and Tremayne (2003) on serial dependence in time series of counts data are affected by overdispersion.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.264-269
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• 2001

In this paper, we interpret a score as a time series and deal with the fuzzy logic-based modeling of it. The musical notes in a score represent a lot of information about the length of a sound and pitches, etc. In this paper, using melodies, tones and pitches in a score, we transform data on a score into a time series. Once more, we foml the new Lime series by sliding a window through the time series. For analyzing the time series data, we make use of the Box-Jenkins s time series analysis. On the basis of the identified characteristics of time series, we construct the fuzzy model.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.701-716
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• 2022

Purpose: This study aims to predict the dry cargo transportation market economy. The subject of this study is the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) time-series, an index representing the dry cargo transport market. Methods: In order to increase the accuracy of the BDI time-series, we have pre-processed the original time-series via time-series decomposition and data augmentation techniques and have used them for ANN learning. The ANN algorithms used are Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to compare and analyze the case of learning and predicting by applying time-series decomposition and data augmentation techniques. The forecast period aims to make short-term predictions at the time of t+1. The period to be studied is from '22. 01. 07 to '22. 08. 26. Results: Only for the case of the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) indicator, all ANN models used in the research has resulted in higher accuracy (1.422% on average) in multivariate prediction. Although it is not a remarkable improvement in prediction accuracy compared to uni-variate prediction results, it can be said that the improvement in ANN prediction performance has been achieved by utilizing time-series decomposition and data augmentation techniques that were significant and targeted throughout this study. Conclusion: Nevertheless, due to the nature of ANN, additional performance improvements can be expected according to the adjustment of the hyper-parameter. Therefore, it is necessary to try various applications of multiple learning algorithms and ANN optimization techniques. Such an approach would help solve problems with a small number of available data, such as the rapidly changing business environment or the current shipping market.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.149-163
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• 2023

Affected by external factors, errors in time series data collected by sensors are common. Using the traditional method of constraining the speed change rate to clean the errors can get good performance. However, they are only limited to the data of stable changing speed because of fixed constraint rules. Actually, data with uneven changing speed is common in practice. To solve this problem, an online cleaning algorithm for time series data based on dynamic speed change rate constraints is proposed in this paper. Since time series data usually changes periodically, we use the extreme learning machine to learn the law of speed changes from past data and predict the speed ranges that change over time to detect the data. In order to realize online data repair, a dual-window mechanism is proposed to transform the global optimal into the local optimal, and the traditional minimum change principle and median theorem are applied in the selection of the repair strategy. Aiming at the problem that the repair method based on the minimum change principle cannot correct consecutive abnormal points, through quantitative analysis, it is believed that the repair strategy should be the boundary of the repair candidate set. The experimental results obtained on the dataset show that the method proposed in this paper can get a better repair effect.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.9D no.2
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• pp.251-258
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• 2002

There has been much research on data mining techniques for applying more advanced applications. However, most of those techniques has focused on transaction data rather than time series data. In this paper, we introduce a approach to convert time series data into virtual transaction data for more useful data mining applications. A virtual transaction is defined to be a collection of events that occur relatively close to each other. A virtual transaction generator uses time window or event window methods. Our approach based on time series data can be used with most conventional transaction algorithms without further modification.

• The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.7-21
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• 2012

The fuzzy time series is introduced by Song and Chissom([8]) to construct a pattern for time series with vague or linguistic value. Many methods using the interval and fuzzy logical relationship related with historical data have been suggested to enhance the forecasting accuracy. But they do not fully reflect the fluctuation of historical data. Therefore, we propose the interval rearranged method to reflect the fluctuation of historical data and to improve the forecasting accuracy of fuzzy time series. Using the well-known enrollment, the proposed method is discussed and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated. Empirical studies show that the proposed method in forecasting accuracy is superior to existing methods and it fully reflects the fluctuation of historical data.