• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.579-588
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• 2020

Obligor defaults are cross-sectionally correlated as obligors share common economic conditions; in addition obligors are longitudinally correlated so that an economic shock like the IMF crisis in 1998 lasts for a period of time. A longitudinal correlation should be used to construct statistical scenarios of stress test with which we replace a type of artificial scenario that the banks have used. We propose a Bayesian model to accommodate such correlation structures. Using 402 obligors to a domestic bank in Korea, our model with a dynamic correlation is compared to a Bayesian model with a stationary longitudinal correlation and the classical logistic regression model. Our model generates statistical financial statement under a stress situation on individual obligor basis so that the genearted financial statement produces a similar distribution of credit grades to when the IMF crisis occurred and complies with Basel IV (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, 2017) requirement that the credit grades under a stress situation are not sensitive to the business cycle.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제30권4호
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• pp.175-193
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 영업레버리지와 재무레버리지 위험 사이의 관련성을 살펴보았다. 한국거래소에 상장되어 있는 제조업체를 대상으로 1990년부터 2009년까지 20년간의 자료를 사용하여 분석한 결과 영업위험과 재무위험이 외국에 비해 상대적으로 높은 수준을 나타냈으며, 1997년 외환위기 이전까지 지속적으로 상승하는 추세가 2009년에 다시 하락하였다. 그리고 영업레버리지도와 재무레버리지도 사이에는 양의 상관관계가 존재하는 것으로 분석되었으나, 연도별로는 일정한 규칙을 나타내고 있지 않았다. 분석대상 제조업체를 자산규모 세부 요소를 기준으로 구분한 소그룹별 분석에서는 각 그룹별로 상이한 결과를 얻었다. 특히 재무의사결정행태가 레버리지도 수준에 따라 크게 다르게 나타나고 있다. 또한 외환위기 전후로 분석한 결과 영업레버리지는 외환위기 후가 높지만 재무레버리지는 외환위기 전이 높았다. 그러나 영업레버리지는 통계적으로 유의한 차이를 나타내지 않았고, 재무레버리지는 통계적으로 유의한 차이를 나타내고 있다. 이는 외환위기 이후 기업의 위험관리가 재무적인 면에서 강하게 작용하는 것으로 파악된다. 또한 외환위기 후의 영업레버리지와 재무레버리지 크기의 따라 주식수익률이 유의한 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 산업융합연구
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.187-216
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• 2004

After Asian financial crisis hit the Korea, Korean government and Korean firms need to restructure their system. Specially financial sector has to renew its system. One way renew its system was adjust company's labor system. The forms of labor adjustment are external numerical flexibility, externalization, internal numerical flexibility, functional flexibility and wage flexibility. These five forms based on two big categories which are wage flexibility and employment flexibility. This study only focus on th effect of employment flexibility in financial sector in Korea. Employment flexibilities can be practice as employment adjustment. Also we concentrate on separation and re-accessors to other financial institute after the separation. The result shows that Korean financial sector are in the range of 10.78% and the job destruction rates are about 11.26%. During the period from year 1998 to year 2002, the numbers of accession has down about 30%. The logit statistical analysis for separation shows that demographical variables and the reasons of separation affected separation and reemployment.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권9호
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• pp.169-178
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• 2020

In this paper, we provide an overview of financial development in Vietnam. Particularly, a new approach of this study is to measure financial development through improvements in depth, efficiency and access of the banking system and stock market. Further, the study examines the factors significantly affecting financial development in Vietnam. The data are collected in Vietnam, an emerging country with a limited financial development. We employ the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, which generates a high reliability and suits data characteristics of emerging countries like Vietnam. We observe that Vietnam's banking system plays a key role in supplying credits to the economy while the nascent stock market at a limited size shows its potential for a considerable growth in the future. We also find the influential determinants of financial development in Vietnam including real estate market (RE), economic growth (EG), consumer price index (CPI), and global financial crisis (GFC). These findings are essential for Vietnamese authorities in providing practical solutions in order to build a sustainable and synchronous financial development. They are also first empirical evidence relating to an overview of financial development in an emerging country, so they are not only valuable to Vietnam but also crucial to other emerging economies.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.55-73
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• 2018

The substantial slowdown of economic growth since the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 is rekindling debate on whether developing Asia should use fiscal expansion to boost aggregate demand. A key factor in the debate is the effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy in the region. The global crisis, as well as the fiscal stimulus packages implemented by developing Asian countries at that time, give some clues to this important issue. The region weathered the global crisis well and experienced a robust V-shaped recovery. According to conventional wisdom, the fiscal stimulus packages put in place by Asian governments played a key role in the region's recovery. The central objective of this paper is to empirically test this wisdom by using cross-country panel data. Our main finding is that the stimulus has had a limited but positive impact on developing Asia's output during the global crisis. This lends some support to the notion that countercyclical fiscal policy can help the region cope with severe external shocks. The broader, more fundamental implication for regional policymakers is that the region's long-standing commitment to fiscal discipline can yield significant benefits beyond macroeconomic stability. An important consequence of this commitment - relatively healthy fiscal balance sheets - enabled the region's governments to quickly and decisively embark upon fiscal stimulus programs.

• 한국농촌건축학회논문집
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.45-54
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• 2015

This paper aims to find out the effective solutions for overcoming the crisis of school closure in rural villages. Fortunately, we have some relevant cases that show the important roles of local communities providing rental houses to the potential residents. This study researches eight cases of elementary schools and their communities in Jeju which have overcome the crisis by providing rental houses to the immigrants. The results are as follows. First, it is effective to provide rental houses to prevent school closure crisis. Second, it is highly recommended to consider advancing schools for students and to offer possible jobs for their parents in order to make sustainable schools and communities. Third, in addition to the treatments for overcoming crisis of school closure, comprehensive measurements for improving new residents' quality of lives along with the collaboration between schools and communities, relations between natives and immigrants, and financial aids from central and local government should be implemented.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제36권3호
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• pp.203-211
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• 2010

This study examines a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model where parameters are subject to switch across the regimes in the term structure of interest rates. To employ the regime switching framework, the Markov-switching vector error correction model (MS-VECM) is allowed to the regime shifts in the vector of intercept terms, the variance-covariance terms, the error correction terms, and the autoregressive coefficient parts. The corresponding approaches are illustrated using the term structure of interest rates in the US Treasury bonds over the period of 1958 to 2009. Throughout the modeling procedure, we find that the MS-VECM can form a statistically adequate representation of the term structure of interest rate in the US Treasury bonds. Moreover, the regime switching effects are analyzed in connection with the historical government monetary policy and with the recent global financial crisis. Finally, the results from the comparisons both in information criteria and in forecasting exercises with and without the regime switching lead us to conclude that the models in the presence of regime dependence are superior to the linear VECM model.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.141-190
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• 2004

Income inequality in Korea has increased after the economic crisis, and the main reason for the widening of income distribution is due to the increase of the unemployed when analyzed using the Urban Household Report(UHR). However, income inequality has not decreased although the rate of unemployment decreased after 2000. Further data bases for income-related statistics are necessary to examine the exact causes of changing income inequality as a whole since the UHR covers only statistics on urban employees' wage and salary in Korea.

• 융합경영연구
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.1-5
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• 2019

Purpose - Along with the rise of foreign investments in the Korean stock market, there has been a variety of studies on their influence. The conflicting findings on the question of information asymmetry of foreign investors among existing literatures appear to be a result of mixture of research method problems, what information is defined as being comparable, individual business levels, or the entire stock market. This paper empirically investigates what factors contribute to foreign investments in firms in the Korean stock market. Research design, data, and Methodology - Samples are constructed by manufacturing firms listed on the stock market of Korea as well as those who settle accounts in December from 2001 to 2018. Financial institutions are excluded from the sample as their accounting procedures, governance and regulations differ. This study adopted the panel regression model to assess the sample construction including yearly and cross-sectional data. Result - This paper find that firms' R&D, dividends, size give significant positive impact to foreign investment, whereas debt gives significant negative impact to foreign investment. This relationship does not change when the samples are divided before and after the 2008 global financial crisis. Conclusion - This results support the literatures that foreign investors favor firms lowering their information asymmetry.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.133-143
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• 2023

The detrimental impacts of financial instability on the world economy during the financial crisis highlighted the requirement to understand the existing financial circumstances. Stability and developments in financial conditions are important for economic prosperity. This study analyses the impact of geopolitical risk on the economic conditions of some specific emerging economies using monthly data from January 1999 to September 2016 by applying a fixed-effects panel data model. The estimation results demonstrated that geopolitical risk has a significant, negative impact on financial conditions. It shows geopolitical risk could be seen as a key factor that contributes towards financial conditions. Further, it implies that negative shocks of high geopolitical risk experienced by emerging economies are one of the primary reasons for the financial conditions' deterioration. The findings provide important insights for governments, policymakers, and investors. For instance, governments and politicians should refrain from expressing or producing tension, economic discomfort, or news that is likely to increase a high geopolitical risk. Maintaining a close eye on geopolitical risk and its sources may also help to stabilize financial conditions and develop a well-functioning financial system. As a result, investors would be better informed about an economy's economic and financial conditions, allowing them to diversify their international portfolios and devise investing strategies during uncertain economic times.