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Stage Costume Design for Performance Hamlet (II) - The Study on Pattern and Manufactured Product - (햄릿 공연을 위한 무대의상 디자인 (II) - 패턴 및 실물제작 -)

  • Kim, Soon-Ku;Hwang, Seong-Won
    • Fashion & Textile Research Journal
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2004
  • This research proposes the on-stage costumes for the play Hamlet of Shakespeare performed by Yunheedan Guhri Pae - the Street Theater Troupe. Stage costumes have an important role in displaying the characteristics of each characters to the audience and has big visual effects. However, in order to design the costumes in the object viewpoints of the audience, the survey on the images of the characters who had actually watched the performance was taken place and proposed the costume design according to the results of the survey. Hamlet a: This result was applied to propose a sweater in black color, black leather pants and vest. Hamlet b: This result was applied to propose hooded coat in purple in middle level of brightness and color spectrum and yellow coat. For free image, loose pants in blue and vest in the same color tone were proposed. Gertrude a: This result was applied to use purple (violet) with reddish tone to propose the formation of a dress applying tailored suit. Gertrude b: This result was applied to propose purple gown and the one-piece dress with black laces. Ophelia a: This result was applied to propose feminine white dress and cape in purple color tone. Ophelia b: This result was applied to propose dyed and weaved clothes. Through the surveys as above, the images of each character was driven in adjectives, and using the results driven from the brightness, coloration, and color, color images were proposed. Only one costume cannot make up for the stage costumes and because it exists as an element of stage production, it is true that costumes are limited in some areas. However, that limit can become the motive of the costume. There is a limit, which the designer cannot produce the costumes as he or she had designed but I believe it is the center of the on-stage customers to display the characteristics of the characters according to the given concept. The limit of this research is the fact that because the costumes were designed so they fit the conditions already given, thus it was difficult to regard the process of designing and producing the costume as a project done according to the interaction. And in the future, if it is possible, I wish for the joint research with the people responsible for stage art to take place as a practical stage art. It was possible to produce practical costume since they were produced for actual performance and the production of costumes considering the dance steps, line of flow, and acting, was able to reduce the trial and error on stage. Through this research, I felt that the understanding and smooth interaction on diverse other areas not limited to the costume design should be taken place and believe that this was a research that proposes new research method since there had been only a few previous research regarding the on-stage costumes for actual performances. Therefore, this research had depended on the surveys given to the audiences to endow objectivity, however, I wish this research can contribute to defining effective process and methods for the on-stage costumes with more active researches with diverse methods and in diverse areas. I am sorry that the costume production for all the characters and all the scenes in Hamlet couldn't be done due to many limitations. As the following research assignment, I am planning on designing the costumes for all the scenes.

Analysis of Industrial Linkage Effects for Farm Land Base Development Project -With respect to the Hwangrak Benefited Area with Reservoir - (농업생산기반 정비사업의 산업연관효과분석 -황락 저수지지구를 중심으로-)

  • Lim, Jae Hwan;Han, Seok Ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.77-93
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    • 1999
  • This study is aiming at identifying the foreward and backward lingkage effects of the farm land base development project. Korean Government has continuously carried out farmland base development projets including the integrated agricultural development projects. large and medium scale irrigation projects and the comprehensive development of the four big river basin including tidal land reclamation and estuary dam construction for the all weather farming since 1962. the starting year of the five year economic development plans. Consequently the irrigation rate of paddy fields in Korea reached to 75% in 1998 and to escalate the irrigation rate, the Government had procured heavy investment fund from IBRD. IMF and OECF etc. To cope with the agricultural problems like trade liberalization in accordance with WTO policy, the government has tried to solve such problems as new farmland base development policy, preservation of the farmland and expansion of farmland to meet self-sufficiency of foods in the future. Especially, farmland base development projects have been challanged to environmental and ecological problems in evaluating economic benefits and costs where the value of non-market goods have not been included in those. Up to data, in evaluating benefits and costs of the projects, farmland base development projects have been confined to direct incremental value of farm products and it's related costs. Therefore the projects'efficiency as a decision making criteria has shown the low level of economic efficiencies. In estimating economic efficiencies including Leontiefs input-output analysis of the projects could not be founded in Korea at present. Accordingly this study is aimed at achieving and identifying the following objectives. (1) To identify the problems related to the financial supports of the Government in implementing the proposed projects. (2) To estimated backward and foreward linkage effects of the proposed project from the view point of national economy as a whole. To achieve the objectives, Hwangrak benefited area with reservoir which is located in Seosan-haemi Disticts, Chungnam Province were selected as a case study. The main results of the study are summarized as follows : a. The present value of investment and O & M cost were amounted to 3,510million won and the present value of the value added in related industries was estimated at 5.913million won for the period of economic life of 70 years. b. The total discounted value of farm products in the concerned industries derived by the project was estimated at 10,495million won and the foreward and backward linkage effects of the project were amounted to 6,760 and 5,126million won respectively. c. The total number of employment opportunities derived from the related industries for the period of project life were 3,136 man/year. d. Farmland base development projects were showed that the backward linkage effects estimated by index of the sensitivity dispersion were larger than the forward linkage effect estimated by index of the power of dispersion. On the other hand, the forward linkage effect of rice production value during project life was larger than the backward linkage effect e. The rate of creation of new job opportunity by means of implementing civil engineering works were shown high in itself rather than any other fields. and the linkage effects of production of the project investment were mainly derived from the metal and non-metal fields. f. According to the industrial linkage effect analysis, farmland base development projects were identified economically feasible from the view point of national economy as a whole even though the economic efficiencies of the project was outstandingly decreased owing to delaying construction period and increasing project costs.

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The Effect of Meta-Features of Multiclass Datasets on the Performance of Classification Algorithms (다중 클래스 데이터셋의 메타특징이 판별 알고리즘의 성능에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Kim, Jeonghun;Kim, Min Yong;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.23-45
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    • 2020
  • Big data is creating in a wide variety of fields such as medical care, manufacturing, logistics, sales site, SNS, and the dataset characteristics are also diverse. In order to secure the competitiveness of companies, it is necessary to improve decision-making capacity using a classification algorithm. However, most of them do not have sufficient knowledge on what kind of classification algorithm is appropriate for a specific problem area. In other words, determining which classification algorithm is appropriate depending on the characteristics of the dataset was has been a task that required expertise and effort. This is because the relationship between the characteristics of datasets (called meta-features) and the performance of classification algorithms has not been fully understood. Moreover, there has been little research on meta-features reflecting the characteristics of multi-class. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to empirically analyze whether meta-features of multi-class datasets have a significant effect on the performance of classification algorithms. In this study, meta-features of multi-class datasets were identified into two factors, (the data structure and the data complexity,) and seven representative meta-features were selected. Among those, we included the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), originally a market concentration measurement index, in the meta-features to replace IR(Imbalanced Ratio). Also, we developed a new index called Reverse ReLU Silhouette Score into the meta-feature set. Among the UCI Machine Learning Repository data, six representative datasets (Balance Scale, PageBlocks, Car Evaluation, User Knowledge-Modeling, Wine Quality(red), Contraceptive Method Choice) were selected. The class of each dataset was classified by using the classification algorithms (KNN, Logistic Regression, Nave Bayes, Random Forest, and SVM) selected in the study. For each dataset, we applied 10-fold cross validation method. 10% to 100% oversampling method is applied for each fold and meta-features of the dataset is measured. The meta-features selected are HHI, Number of Classes, Number of Features, Entropy, Reverse ReLU Silhouette Score, Nonlinearity of Linear Classifier, Hub Score. F1-score was selected as the dependent variable. As a result, the results of this study showed that the six meta-features including Reverse ReLU Silhouette Score and HHI proposed in this study have a significant effect on the classification performance. (1) The meta-features HHI proposed in this study was significant in the classification performance. (2) The number of variables has a significant effect on the classification performance, unlike the number of classes, but it has a positive effect. (3) The number of classes has a negative effect on the performance of classification. (4) Entropy has a significant effect on the performance of classification. (5) The Reverse ReLU Silhouette Score also significantly affects the classification performance at a significant level of 0.01. (6) The nonlinearity of linear classifiers has a significant negative effect on classification performance. In addition, the results of the analysis by the classification algorithms were also consistent. In the regression analysis by classification algorithm, Naïve Bayes algorithm does not have a significant effect on the number of variables unlike other classification algorithms. This study has two theoretical contributions: (1) two new meta-features (HHI, Reverse ReLU Silhouette score) was proved to be significant. (2) The effects of data characteristics on the performance of classification were investigated using meta-features. The practical contribution points (1) can be utilized in the development of classification algorithm recommendation system according to the characteristics of datasets. (2) Many data scientists are often testing by adjusting the parameters of the algorithm to find the optimal algorithm for the situation because the characteristics of the data are different. In this process, excessive waste of resources occurs due to hardware, cost, time, and manpower. This study is expected to be useful for machine learning, data mining researchers, practitioners, and machine learning-based system developers. The composition of this study consists of introduction, related research, research model, experiment, conclusion and discussion.

Analysis Corrosion Products Formed on the Great Buddha Image of Kotokuin Temple in Kamakura (고덕원 국보 동조아미타여래좌상의 표면에 생성한 부식생성물의 해석)

  • Matsuda Shiro;Aoki Shigeo;Kang, Dai-il
    • 보존과학연구
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    • s.17
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    • pp.161-182
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    • 1996
  • In natural atmosphere, copper and copper alloy have been used to make buddha statues and ornaments of historic buildings since the abovementioned metals have corrosion resistance in some extent, and the patinaformed on the surface of the metals has provided the people aesthetic satisfaction with its beauty. But in atmosphere polluted by $SO_x$and $NO_x$, the patina layer does not work as a protective film, and it allows damages of the metal. Since 1992, Tokyo National Research Institute of Cultural Properties(TNRICP)has conducted studies on the influence of atmospheric pollution on metal cultural property held under open air. The Great Buddha Image which is located in Kamakura about 50km west from Tokyo, has been selected as one of the objects to study because it is made by copper alloy and it has stood exposed in the air for about a few hundreds years. Furthermore it is also the reason to study on it that there are many cultural properties in the surroundings of it. We have analysed the components and the structure of the corrosion products formed on the surface of the Buddha, have carried out exposure tests using the alloy samples which have simulated the components of the Great Image, and have observed climated and polluted air in order to discuss the relation between corrosion of metals in open air and conditions of the atmosphere. In this paper, the authors have described the components and the structure of the corrosion product formed on the surface of the Great Image by means of X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction. The conclusions are as follows. (1) Sulfate patina composed mainly with brochantite were detected on the all sides of the Image and the amount of the patina is found more on the back of the Image facing to north. (2) Antlerite were detected on the back and a park of the left side facing to west, and formation of it was considered to have close relation with malignant atmosphere. (3) A big amount of chloride patina which mainly composed of atacamite were observed on the front facing to south. (4) Carbonate patina mainly composed of malachite were detected on the area where brochantite was often detected as well. It suggested that malachite had been transformed into brochantite by deteriorated atmosphere. (5) On the all sides of the Image, patina were observed together with copper oxides mainly composed of cuprous oxide. It showed that the surface layer of the Image consists of two layers : inner layer of oxide and outer layer of patina. (6) Corrosion products of lead which was a component of copperalloy were detected on the all sides : the main lead product found on the front was chlorophosphate whereas the one on the back was sulfate.

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A study on urban heat islands over the metropolitan Seoul area, using satellite images (원격탐사기법에 의한 도시열섬 연구)

  • ;Lee, Hyoun-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.40
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    • pp.1-13
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    • 1989
  • The brightness temperature from NOAA AVHRR CH 4 images was examined for the metropolitan Seoul area, the capital city of Korea, to detect the characteristics of the urban heat island for this study. Surface data from 21 meteorological stations were compared with the brightness temperatures Through computer enhancement techniques, more than 20 heat islands could be recognized in South Korea, with 1 km spatii resolution at a scale of 1: 200, 00O(Fig. 3, 4 and 6). The result of the analysis of AVHRR CH 4 images over the metropolitan Seoul area can be summerized as follows (1) The pattern of brightness temperature distribution in the metropolitan Seoul area shows a relatively strong temperature contrast between urban and rural areas. There is some indication of the warm brightness temperature zone characterrizing built-up area including CBD, densely populated residential district and industrial zone. The cool brightness temperature is asociaed with the major hills such as Bukhan-san, Nam-san and Kwanak-san or with the major water bodies such as Han-gang, and reservoirs. Although the influence of the river and reservoirs is obvious in the brightness temperauture, that of small-scaled land use features such as parks in the cities is not features such as parks in the cities is not apperent. (2) One can find a linerar relationshop between the brightenss temperature and air temperature for 10 major cities, where the difference between two variables is larger in big cities. Though the coefficient value is 0.82, one can estimate that factors of the heat islands can not be explained only by the size of the cities. The magnitude of the horizontal brightness temperature differences between urban and rural area is found to be greater than that of horizontal air temperature difference in Korea. (3) Also one can find the high heat island intensity in some smaller cities such as Changwon(won(Tu-r=9.0$^{\circ}$C) and Po-hang(Tu-r==7.1$^{\circ}$~)T. he industrial location quotient of Chang-won is the second in the country and Po-hang the third. (4) A comparision of the enhanced thermal infrared imageries in 1986 and 1989, with the map at a scale of 1:200, 000 for the meotropolitan Seoul area showes the extent of possible urbanization changes. In the last three years, the heat islands have been extended in area. zone characterrizing built-up area including (5) Although the overall data base is small, the data in Fig. 3 suggest that brightness tempeautre could ge utilized for the study on the heat island characteristics. Satellite observations are required to study and monitor the impact of urban heat island on the climate and environment on global scale. This type of remote sensing provides a meams of monitoring the growth of urban and suburban aeas and its impact on the environment.

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2013 Records Regime Issues and Prospects for Public Records Management in Korea (한국 공공기록관리의 쟁점과 전망 2013년 기록관리체제를 위하여)

  • Ahn, Byung-Woo;Lee, Sang-min;Sim, Seong-Bo;Nam, Kyeong-Ho;Kim, Jin-Sung;O, Dong-Seok;Jeong, Tae-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.34
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    • pp.3-28
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    • 2012
  • The year of 2013 is the first year that the new president takes the power and administrates the national affairs. In Korea, when the new president comes, the new administration brings big changes in the politics, economy, and society. The government management style has been changed according to the orientation and styles of the new president. Public records management is a critical and effective business tool to establish and carry out the government policies as well as an essential tool for democracy. Modern democracy is based on good governance. Creation and free use of full and accurate public records makes the good communication between the government and the public possible, and people's participation in the policy-making and surveillance of government activities for public good can work. During the present administration, communication between the president and the people was cutoff and people's participation in the national affairs have been further limited. Furthermore, in the present administration, the public records management was not regarded important, Whatever new administration comes, the year of 2013 is the time for the new administration to realize again the importance of the public records management and put it back to the normal track. Here are the major issues in the public records management to be concerned and resolved; (1) to ensure technological and institutional management of the electronic records in the government and safe transfer of the massive electronic records, (2) to establish an independent national records management and archives authority to be based on good governance, (3) to innovate the public records management in the public agencies including their agency records offices (RMO) and records management systems (RMS) (4) to establish local government archives and document local government policies and activities (5) supporting and promotion for documentation of the total society as a public service (6) expanding employment of professional records managers and archivists in the central and local governments, and standardization of professional competency and certification. In this paper, I will introduce the major issues in the public records management and suggest the policies and solutions that the Korean records professionals considered and discussed. This analysis and suggestions are the outcome of our professional considerations and discussions.

Estimation of Optimal Size of the Treatment Facility for Nonpoint Source Pollution due to Watershed Development (비점오염원의 정량화방안에 따른 적정 설계용량결정)

  • Kim, Jin-Kwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.149-153
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    • 2008
  • The pollutant capacity occurred before and after the development of a watershed should be quantitatively estimated and controlled for the minimization of water contamination. The Ministry of Environment suggested a guideline for the legal management of nonpoint source from 2006. However, the rational method for the determination of treatment capacity from nonpoint source proposed in the guideline has the problem in the field application because it does not reflect the project based cases and overestimates the pollutant load to be reduced. So, we perform the standard rainfall analysis by analytical probabilistic method for the estimation of an additional pollutant load occurred by a project and suggest a methodology for the estimation of contaminant capacity instead of a simple rational method. The suggested methodology in this study could determine the reasonable capacity and efficiency of a treatment facility through the estimation of pollutant load from nonpoint source and from this we can manage the watershed appropriately. We applied a suggested methodology to the projects of housing land development and a dam construction in the watersheds. When we determine the treatment capacity by a rational method without consideration of the types of projects we should treat the 90% of pollutant capacity occurred by the development and to do so, about 30% of the total cost for the development should be invested for the treatment facility. This requires too big cost and is not realistic. If we use the suggested method the target pollutant capacity to be reduced will be 10 to 30% of the capacity occurred by the development and about 5 to 10% of the total cost can be used. The control of nonpoint source must be performed for the water resources management. However it is not possible to treat the 90% of pollutant load occurred by the development. The proper pollutant capacity from nonpoint source should be estimated and controlled based on various project types and in reality, this is very important for the watershed management. Therefore the results of this study might be more reasonable than the rational method proposed in the Ministry of Environment.

A Study of the Japanese Colonial Era Rock-Carved Seated Avalokiteśvara Statue at Ganghwa Bomunsa Temple (일제강점기 강화 보문사 마애관음보살좌상 연구)

  • Lee, Jumin
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.53 no.3
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    • pp.62-79
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    • 2020
  • The rock-carved seated Avalokiteśvara statue at Ganghwa Bomunsa Temple is a giant rock-carved Buddhist statue that was built in 1928 during the Japanese colonial era. Although it is a year-recorded Buddhist statue that occupies a prominent place in modern Korean Buddhist sculpture history, it has not been the subject of in-depth discussion due to weak research on modern Buddhist sculptures. In this study, to examine the various significant aspects of the rock-carved Seated Avalokiteśvara statue at Bomunsa Temple as a modern Buddhist sculpture, I have managed to determine its construction year, artificers, and patrons by deciphering the inscription around the rock-carved statue; in addition I have researched the effects of the rock shapes and landforms on the formation of the Buddhist statue by comparing and analyzing the points of view of both artificers and worshipers. I have also identified the specific circumstances of the time of construction from interviews with the descendants of artificers. A monk from Geumgangsan Mountain, Lee Hwaeung, took the role of sponsor and chief painter to construct the rock-carved seated Avalokiteśvara statue at Bomunsa temple. In the beginning of its construction in 1928, more than 100 donators jointly sponsored the construction of the statue. Gansong Jeon Hyoungphil sponsored alone at the time of the place of worship's expansion in 1938. Bomunsa Temple has been regarded as one of the top-three sacred places of Avalokiteśvara Bodhisattva together with Naksansa Temple in Yang Yang and Boriam in Nam Hae, due to the construction of the rock-carved statue. It took about three months to construct the statue. Lee Hwaeung drew a rough sketch and then Un Songhag and five masons from Ganghwa Island took part in the carving process. We can observe the line drawing technique around the rock-carved statue because the statue was carved based on the rough sketch of the monk painter. The aspect of Lee Hwaeung as a painter is revealed; therefore, we can identify the clue of painting pattern leading to Seogongchulyou- Hwaunghyoungjin- Ilonghyegag. The rock-carved seated Avalokiteśvara statue at Bomunsa Temple is a typical Avalokiteśvara that wears a jeweled crown and holds Kundica. It makes a strong impression as it has a big square-shaped face and a short neck and is unsophisticated in general. The artificers solved the issue of visual distortion of the rock-carved statue caused by carving on a 10-meter high and 40-degree sloping rock by controlling motion to its maximum, omitting detailed expression by emphasizing symmetry, and adjusting the head-to-body proportion to be almost one-to-one. In this study, especially, I presume the unified form of sacred sculptures and Buddhist altars, without making a Buddhist altar like the rock-carved seated Avalokiteśvara statue at Bomunsa Temple, to be a key characteristic of modern Buddhist sculptures. Furthermore, I make newly clear that the six letters of Sanskrit carved on nimbus, which had been interpreted as a Six-Syllable Mantra, are a combination with Jeongbeopgye and Sabang Mantras. In addition, three iron rings driven on eaves rock were used as a reference point, and after construction they were used as a decoration for the Bodhisattva with hanging wind chimes.

A Study on Traditional Costume of China's Minorities(II) - Centering Around Yunnan Province Minorities - (중국소수민족(中國少數民族)의 민족복식(民族服飾)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)(II) - 운남성(雲南省)의 소수민족(少數民族)을 중심(中心)으로 -)

  • Kim, Young-Sin;Hong, Jung-Min
    • Journal of Fashion Business
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.65-80
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    • 1999
  • In this study, the researcher studied the historical background and the traditional culture about dress and ornament of Yunnan Province of China. The Results of the study are as follows. 1. In the Past, Derung's dress was very simple due to the influence of various factors, such as geography and history. Men wore shorts and covered diagonally a piece of cloth from left shoulders to right armpits and tied up the two ends on chests. Women covered crisscross two pieces of cloth from both shoulders to knee. 2. Achang people's dress and adornment has its own unique characteristic. Generally, men wear Jackets with buttons down the front and black trousers. Unmarried men like to wear white turbans, while most of married men usually wear dark blue ones. Women usually wear tight-sleeve blouses with buttons down the front and skirts. Unmarried women wear the hair in braids coil them on the top of their heads. They wear short blouses and trousers. Married women wear their hair Into buns and like to entwine black or blue cloth into high trubans. They wear short blouses and knee-length straight skirts. Achang knife enjoys high reputation and has a long history and an exquisite workmanship. All the men like to wear it. 3. The dress and adornment of the Lahu nationality has both the characteristic of farming culture and the style of nomadic culture of early times. Men usually wear short shirts with round necks and buttons down the front, loose-legged trousers, turbans or dark blue cloth caps Women's dress and adornment can be categorized into two styles. One is black cloth gown with buttons diagonally on the right front and waist-length slits on both sides. The edges of fronts and cuffs are edged with Silver ornaments and lace. They also wear trousers. The other is short blouse with round neck and short opening on th right front, straight skirt and colourful leggings with embroidered patterns. 4. The Hani people, men and women, old and young, like black colour and are fond of wearing black clothes. Men usually wear shirts with buttons down the front and trousers, entwining their heads with black or white cloth. The elderly people wear calottes. Women wear cloth blouses, skirts and trousers or shorts. Slight differences exist in the clothing and adornments according to region, branch and age 5. Blang people's dyeing technique with an exquisite method has a long history. Men wear dark blue long sleeve shirts with round necks and buttons down the front or arranged diagonally on the front and loose-legged trousers. Elderly men wear big turbans wdress and adornment varies greatly in different regions. 6. The Lisu people culture of dress and adornment has some unique characteristics. The styles and colours of their dress and adornment differ slightly from place to place. In the Nujiang area, Women wear black velvet Jackets over blouses with buttons arranged diagonally on the right front and long pleated ramie skirts. Men usually wear wraparound ramie gowns, with center vent, made of fabrics alternated with white and black cross stripes. They also wear cloth waistbands and trohile youngsters keep their hair short. Women's users. In the Lushui area, the dress and adornment is similar to that in the Nujing region, but women wear aprons and trousers instead of skirts. 7. The Nu people dress and adornment is simple but elegant Women are proficient in ramie-weaving. Men usually wear gowns With overlapping necks, knee-length trousers and leggings. They like to wear their hair long and entwine dark blue or white turbans. Women wear black and red vests over blouses with buttons arranged diagonally on the right front and ankle-length skirts. They also wear their hair long, make it into braids, and entwine dark blue or colourful cloth turbans. 8. Pumi men usually wear ramie shirts With buttons arranged diagonally on the right front, loose trousers and white sheepskin vests. Some also wear overcoats made of "pulu". Women's dress and adornment varies in different areas. In the Lanping and Weixi regions, women wear white short blouses with buttons arranged diagonally on the front and dark brown embroidered vests. They also wear trousers and blue or black cloth turbans. In the Ninglang and Yongsheng regions, women wear hemmed blouses With buttons arranged diagonally on the right front and drape sheepskin capes. They also wear white pleated skirts and use broad colourful cloth as their waistbands.

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Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects (손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정)

  • KU, Sukmo;LEE, Sunghoon;LEE, Seungjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.