• 제목/요약/키워드: Temperature forecast

검색결과 390건 처리시간 0.023초

신경회로망을 이용한 냉방부하예측에 관한 연구 (The Study on Cooling Load Forecast using Neural Networks)

  • 신관우;이윤섭
    • 설비공학논문집
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    • 제14권8호
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    • pp.626-633
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    • 2002
  • The electric power load during the peak time in summer is strongly affected by cooling load, which decreases the preparation ratio of electricity and brings about the failure in the supply of electricity in the electric power system. The ice-storage system and heat pump system etc. are used to settle this problem. In this study, the method of estimating temperature and humidity to forecast the cooling load of ice storage system is suggested. And also the method of forecasting the cooling load using neural network is suggested. For the simulation, the cooling load is calculated using actual temperature and humidity, The forecast of the temperature, humidity and cooling load are simulated. As a result of the simulation, the forecasted data is approached to the actual data.

압력센서와 온습도센서를 이용한 일기예보 시스템의 개발을 위한 데이터 분석 (Data analysis for weather forecast system using pressure, temperature and humidity sensors)

  • 김원재;박세광
    • 센서학회지
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.253-258
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    • 1999
  • 본 논문은 일기에 관한 대표적인 정보인 온도, 습도, 그리고 기압의 변화를 감지하여 일기를 예측하는 일기예보시스템을 개발함으로써, 가정에서 쉽게 일기에 대한 정보를 얻을 수 있도록 하는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 기상청으로부터 기상정보와 일기와의 관계를 분석하여, 차후 측정된 기상정보로부터 일기예보를 하는데 필요한 판단기준을 마련하였다. 또한, 자체적인 데이터 수집을 위해 반도체 압저항성을 이용한 압력센서와 온습도센서를 제작하고, 마이크로프로세서를 이용하여 시스템을 제작하였다.

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장기체공무인기를 위한 제주도 모슬포 지역의 기상환경 분석 (The Analysis of Meterological Environment over Jeju Moseulpo Region for HALE UAV)

  • 조영준;안광득;이희춘;하종철;최규용;조천호;김수복
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.469-477
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the characteristics of main wind direction, vertical temperature and wind speed profile near the Moseulpo airfield for HALE UAV(High Altitude Long Endurance Unmaned Aerial Vehicle) is investigated. The results are summarized as follows, main wind direction is governed by air mass according to season and local wind such as land-sea breeze. The directions of landing and take-off of HALE UAV will be selected as the south-east direction in June ~ August, north-west direction in October ~ March, and south-east direction at daytime in April ~ May, September. Annual variation of temperature at 100 hPa showed that temperature in summer season is lower than winter season. On the other hands, wind speed at 250 hPa in winter season is higher than summer season. The threshold values of temperature and wind speed for HALE UAV flight are $-75^{\circ}C$ and $90ms^{-1}$, which were determined by 5 % frequency value($1.96{\sigma}$), respectively.

관개계획을 위한 일기예보의 신뢰성과 활용성 (Reliability and Applicability of Weather Forecasts for Irrigation Scheduling)

  • 이남호
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제41권6호
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study is to analyse the accuracy of weather forecasts of temperature, precipitation probability , and sky condition and to evaluate the applicability of weather forecasts for the estimation of potential evapotranspiration for irrigation scheduling. Five weather station s were selected to compare forecasted and measured climatcal data. The error between forecasted and measured temperature was calculated and discussed. The accuracy of temperature forecast using relative frequency of the error was calculated . The temperature forecasting showed considerably high accuracy. Average sunshine hours for forecasted sky conditions were calculated and showed reasonable quality. From the reliability graphs, the forecasting precipation probabililty was reliable. Potential evapotranspirations were calculated and compared using forecast and measured temperatures. The weather forecast is considered usable for irrigation scheculing.

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The Study on Cooling Load Forecast of an Unit Building using Neural Networks

  • Shin, Kwan-Woo;Lee, Youn-Seop
    • International Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.170-177
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    • 2003
  • The electric power load during the summer peak time is strongly affected by cooling load, which decreases the preparation ratio of electricity and brings about the failure in the supply of electricity in the electric power system. The ice storage system and heat pump system etc. are used to settle this problem. In this study, the method of estimating temperature and humidity to forecast the cooling load of ice storage system is suggested. The method of forecasting the cooling load using neural network is also suggested. The daily cooling load is mainly dependent on actual temperature and humidity of the day. The simulation is started with forecasting the temperature and humidity of the following day from the past data. The cooling load is then simulated by using the forecasted temperature and humidity data obtained from the simulation. It was observed that the forecasted data were closely approached to the actual data.

외기에 면한 초고층 아파트 천정 내부결로 예측 (Forecast on Internal Condensation at Ceiling of Super-high Apartment Building Faced with Open Air)

  • 안재봉;송영웅;최윤기
    • 한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국건설관리학회 2003년도 학술대회지
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    • pp.626-629
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    • 2003
  • 본 연구는 외기에 면한 초고층 아파트 최상층부의 발코니 천장내부에 있는 H-Beam(내화피복+단열재로 구성)과 Parepet 부위 내부결로 발생가능성에 대한 예측을 해 봄으로써 해당공간 거주자의 쾌적한 환경 만족 및 불안을 해소 하는데 그 목적이 있다. 외주부를 성하고 있는 Curtain wall, Stone panel 또는 슬래브 바닥하부 등의 열적 취약공간에 대해 2차원 정상상태(온도평형) 열전도해석 Program을 이용, 온도예측과 온도분포해적을 통해 해당부위의 습기압분포에 따른 내부결로 예측을 실시하였다.

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지형을 고려한 기온 객관분석 기법 (Objective analysis of temperature using the elevation-dependent weighting function)

  • 이정순;이용희;하종철;이희춘
    • 대기
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.233-243
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    • 2012
  • The Barnes scheme is used in Digital Forecast System (DFS) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for real-time analysis. This scheme is an objective analysis scheme with a distance-dependent weighted average. It has been widely used for mesoscale analyses in limited geographic areas. The isotropic Gaussian weight function with a constant effective radius might not be suitable for certain conditions. In particular, the analysis error can be increased for stations located near mountains. The terrain of South Korea is covered with mountains and wide plains that are between successive mountain ranges. Thus, it is needed to consider the terrain effect with the information of elevations for each station. In order to improve the accuracy of the temperature objective analysis, we modified the weight function which is dependent on a distance and elevation in the Barnes scheme. We compared the results from the Barnes scheme used in the DFS (referred to CTL) with the new scheme (referred to EXP) during a year of 2009 in this study. The analysis error of the temperature field was verified by the root-mean-square-error (RMSE), mean error (ME), and Priestley skill score (PSS) at the DFS observation stations which is not used in objective analysis. The verification result shows that the RMSE and ME values are 1.68 and -0.41 in CTL and 1.42 and -0.16 in EXP, respectively. In aspect of spatial verification, we found that the RSME and ME values of EXP decreased in the vicinity of Jirisan (Mt. Jiri) and Taebaek Mountains. This indicates that the new scheme performed better in temperature verification during the year 2009 than the previous scheme.

신경회로망을 이용한 일일 냉방부하 예측에 관한 실험적 연구 (Experimental Study on Cooling Load Forecast Using Neural Networks)

  • 신관우;이윤섭;김용태;최병윤
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2001년도 합동 추계학술대회 논문집 정보 및 제어부문
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    • pp.61-64
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    • 2001
  • The electric power load during the peak time in summer is strongly affected by cooling load. which decreases the preparation ratio of electricity and brings about the failure in the supply of electricity in the electric power system. The ice-storage system and heat pump system etc are used to settle this problem. In this study, the method of estimating temperature and humidity to forecast the cooling load of ice-storage system is suggested. And also the method of forecasting the cooling load using neural network is suggested. For the simulation, the cooling load is calculated using actual temperature and humidity. The forecast of the temperature, humidity and cooling load are simulated. As a result of the simulation, the forecasted data approached to the actual data.

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연속 순위 확률 점수를 활용한 통합 앙상블 모델에 대한 기온 및 습도 후처리 모델 개발 (Enhancing Medium-Range Forecast Accuracy of Temperature and Relative Humidity over South Korea using Minimum Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) Statistical Correction Technique)

  • 복혜정;김준수;김연희;조은주;김승범
    • 대기
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2024
  • The Korea Meteorological Administration has improved medium-range weather forecasts by implementing post-processing methods to minimize numerical model errors. In this study, we employ a statistical correction technique known as the minimum continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) to refine medium-range forecast guidance. This technique quantifies the similarity between the predicted values and the observed cumulative distribution function of the Unified Model Ensemble Prediction System for Global (UM EPSG). We evaluated the performance of the medium-range forecast guidance for surface air temperature and relative humidity, noting significant enhancements in seasonal bias and root mean squared error compared to observations. Notably, compared to the existing the medium-range forecast guidance, temperature forecasts exhibit 17.5% improvement in summer and 21.5% improvement in winter. Humidity forecasts also show 12% improvement in summer and 23% improvement in winter. The results indicate that utilizing the minimum CRPS for medium-range forecast guidance provide more reliable and improved performance than UM EPSG.

WRF-UCM (Urban Canopy Model)을 이용한 서울 지역의 도시기상 예보 평가 (Evaluation of Urban Weather Forecast Using WRF-UCM (Urban Canopy Model) Over Seoul)

  • 변재영;최영진;서범근
    • 대기
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.13-26
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    • 2010
  • The Urban Canopy Model (UCM) implemented in WRF model is applied to improve urban meteorological forecast for fine-scale (about 1-km horizontal grid spacing) simulations over the city of Seoul. The results of the surface air temperature and wind speed predicted by WRF-UCM model is compared with those of the standard WRF model. The 2-m air temperature and wind speed of the standard WRF are found to be lower than observation, while the nocturnal urban canopy temperature from the WRF-UCM is superior to the surface air temperature from the standard WRF. Although urban canopy temperature (TC) is found to be lower at industrial sites, TC in high-intensity residential areas compares better with surface observation than 2-m temperature. 10-m wind speed is overestimated in urban area, while urban canopy wind (UC) is weaker than observation by the drag effect of the building. The coupled WRF-UCM represents the increase of urban heat from urban effects such as anthropogenic heat and buildings, etc. The study indicates that the WRF-UCM contributes for the improvement of urban weather forecast such nocturnal heat island, especially when an accurate urban information dataset is provided.