• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.40-49
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• 2013

Current service system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for blooming date forecasting in spring depends on regression equations derived from long term observations in both temperature and phenology at a given station. This regression based system does not allow a timely correction or update of forecasts that are highly sensitive to fluctuating weather conditions. Furthermore, the system cannot afford plant responses to climate extremes which were not observed before. Most of all, this method may not be applicable to locations other than that which the regression equations were derived from. This note suggests a way to replace the location restricted regression equations with a thermal time based phenology model to complement the KMA blooming forecast system. Necessary parameters such as reference temperature, chilling requirement and heating requirement were derived from phenology data for forsythia, azaleas and Japanese cherry at 29 KMA stations for the 1951-1980 period to optimize spring phenology prediction model for each species. Best fit models for each species were used to predict blooming dates and the results were compared with the observed dates to produce a correction grid across the whole nation. The models were driven by the KMA's daily temperature data at a 5km grid spacing and subsequently adjusted by the correction grid to produce the blooming date maps. Validation with the 1971-2012 period data showed the RMSE of 2-3 days for Japanese cherry, showing a feasibility of operational service; whereas higher RMSE values were observed with forsythia and azaleas.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.133-140
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• 2002

Site-specific minimum temperature forecasts are critical in a short-term decision making procedure for preventive measures as well as a long-term strategy such as site selection in fruits industry. Nocturnal cold air pools frequently termed in mountainous areas under anticyclonic systems are very dangerous to the flowering buds in spring over Korea, but the spatial resolution to detect them exceeds the current weather forecast scale. To supplement the insufficient spatial resolution of official forecasts, we developed a GIS - assisted frost risk assesment scheme for using in mountainous areas. Daily minimum temperature data were obtained from 6 sites located in a 2.1 by 2.1 km area with complex topography near the southern edge of Sobaek mountains during radiative cooling nights in spring 2001. A digital elevation model with a 10 m spatial resolution was prepared for the entire study area and the cold air inflow was simulated for each grid cell by counting the number of surrounding cells coming into the processing cell. Primitive temperature surfaces were prepared for the corresponding dates by interpolating the Korea Meteorological Administration's automated observational data with the lapse rate correction. The cell temperature values corresponding to the 6 observation sites were extracted from the primitive temperature surface, and subtracted from the observed values to obtain the estimation error. The errors were regressed to the flow accumulation at the corresponding cells, delineating a statistically significant relationship. When we applied this relationship to the primitive temperature surfaces of frost nights during April 2002, there was a good agreement with the observations, showing a feasibility of site-specific frost warning system development in mountainous areas.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.253-257
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• 2018

Climate models forecast more frequent and a longer period of drought events which may impact forest soil carbon dynamics, thereby altering the soil respiration (SR) rate. We examine the simulated drought effects on soil $CO_2$ effluxes from soil surface partitioning heterotrophic and autotrophic soil respiration sources. Three replicates of drought plots ($6{\times}6m$) were constructed with the same size of three control plots. We examined the relation between $CO_2$ and soil temperature and soil moisture, each being measured at a soil depth of 15 cm. We also compared which factor affected $CO_2$ efflux more under drought conditions. Total SR, autotrophic respiration (AR) and heterotrophic respiration (HR) were positively correlated with soil temperature (p < 0.05), and the relationships were stronger in roof plots than in control plots. Total SR, AR, and HR were negatively correlated only in roof plots, and the only HR showed a significant correlation (p < 0.05, r = -0.59). Soil respiration rates were more influenced by soil temperature than by soil moisture, and this relationship was more evident under drought conditions.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.11-19
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• 2017

This study examined the relationship between the initiation timing typhoon season in the Northwestern Pacific and the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) using a numerical simulation. The initiation timing of the typhoon season is closely associated with SSTs over the Indian Ocean (IO) and the eastern Pacific (EP) in the preceding winter and early-spring. The experiment based on the Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model showed that the start date of the typhoon season is delayed for about one month when the SSTs over the IO and the EP increase in the preceding winter. The forced tropical SST pattern induces anticyclonic anomalies in the Northwestern Pacific, which is an unfavorable condition for typhoon development, and hence it could delay the initiation of the typhoon season.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.435-442
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• 2024

We investigated the accuracy of surface air temperature prediction according to the selection of land-use data and initial meteorological data using the Weather Research and Forecasting model-v4.2.1. A numerical experiment was conducted at the Daegu Dyeing Industrial Complex. We initially used meteorological input data from GFS (Global forecast system)and GDAPS (Global data assimilation and prediction system). High-resolution input data were generated and used as input data for the weather model using the land cover data of the Ministry of Environment and the digital elevation model of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. The experiment was conducted by classifying the terrestrial and topographic data (land cover data) and meteorological data applied to the model. For simulations using high-resolution terrestrial data(10 m), global data assimilation, and prediction system data(CASE 3), the calculated surface temperature was much closer to the automatic weather station observations than for simulations using low-resolution terrestrial data(900 m) and GFS(CASE 1).

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.173-182
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• 2016

The objective of this study is to quantitatively analyze climate change effects by using statistical trends and a watershed model in the Yongdam dam watershed. The annual average air temperature was found to increase with statistical significance. In particular, greater increases were observed in autumn. Also, this study was performed to evaluate the potential climate change in the streamflow and water temperature using a watershed model (HSPF) with RCP climate change scenarios. The streamflow of Geum river showed a decrease of 5.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in the baseline data for the 2040s and 2080s. The seasonal impact of future climate change on the streamflow showed a decrease in the summer and an increase in the winter. The water temperature of Geum river showed an average increase of 0.7~1.0℃. Especially, the water temperature of Geum river showed an increase of 0.3~0.5℃ in the 2040s and 0.5~1.2℃ in the 2080s. The seasonal impact of future climate change on the water temperature showed an increase in winter and spring, with a decrease in summer. Therefore, it was determined that a statistical analysis-based meteorological and quantitative forecast of streamflow and water temperature using a watershed model is necessary to assess climate change impact and to establish plans for future water resource management.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.24 no.12
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• pp.1657-1671
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• 2015

In this study, the wind direction and the wind speed of the nearest temperature observations point of the National Weather Service was analyzed in order to investigate the rapid rise and drop of water temperature in the East Coast appeared after passing of the 2015 typhoon No. 9 and 11. Then the figures were simulated and analyzed using the WRF(weather research and forecast) model to investigate in more detailed path of the typhoon as well as the changes in the wind field. The results were as follows. A sudden drop of water temperature was confirmed due to upwelling on the East coast when ninth typhoon Chanhom is transformed from tropical cyclones into extra tropical cyclone, then kept moving eastwards from Pyongyang forming a strong southerly wind after 13th and this phenomenon lasted for two days. The high SST(sea surface temperature) is confirmed due to a strong northerly wind by 11th typhoon Nangka. This strong wind directly affected the east coast for three days causing the Ekman effect which transported high offshore surface waters to the coast. The downwelling occurred causing an accumulation of high temperature surface water. As a results, the SST of 15m and 25m rose to that of 5m.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.220-237
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• 2001

Over the 20th century global temperature increase has been 0.6$^{\circ}C$. The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8$^{\circ}C$ over the period 1990 to 2100. Nearly all land areas will have higher maximum temperature and minimum temperature, and fewer cold days and frost days. More intense precipitation events will take plate over many areas. Over most mid-latitude continental interiors will have increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought. By 2100, if the annual surface temperature increase is 3.5$^{\circ}C$, we will have 15.9$^{\circ}C$ from 12.4$^{\circ}C$ at present. Also the annual precipitation will range 1,118-2,447 mm from 972-1,841 mm at present in Korea. Consequently the average crop periods for summer crops will be 250 days that prolonged 32 days than at present. In the case of gradual increase of global warming, an annual crop can be adapted to the changing climate through the selection of filial generations in breeding process. The perennial crops such as an apple should be shifted the chief producing place to northern or high latitude areas where below 13.5$^{\circ}C$ of the annual surface temperature. If global warming happens suddenly over the threshold atmospheric greenhouse gases, then all ecosystems will have tremendous disturbance. Agricultural land-use plan, which state that farmers decide what to plant, based on their climate-based advantages. Therefore, farmers will mitigate possible negative imparts associated with the climate change. The farmers will have application to use agricultural meteorological information system, and agricultural long-range weather forecast system for their agroecosystems management. The ideal types of crops under $CO_2$ increase and climate change conditions are considered that ecological characteristics need indispensable to accomplish the sustainable agriculture as the diversification of genetic resources from yield-oriented to biomass-oriented characteristics with higher potential of $CO_2$ absorption and primary production. In addition, a heat-and-cold tolerance, a pest resistance, an environmental adaptability, and production stability should be also incorporated collectively into integrated agroecosystem.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.427-441
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• 2018

This study examines the impact of the urban parameterization scheme and the land cover change on simulated near surface temperature using Unified Model (UM) over the Seoul metropolitan area. We perform four simulations by varying the land cover and the urban parameterization scheme, and then compare the model results with 46 AWS observation data from 2 to 9 August 2016. Four simulations were performed with different combination of two urban parameterization schemes and two land cover data. Two schemes are Best scheme and MORUSES (Met Office Reading Urban Surface Exchange Scheme) and two land cover data are IGBP (International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme) and EGIS (Environmental Geographic information service) land cover data. When land use data change from IGBP to EGIS, urban ratio over the study area increased by 15.9%. The results of the study showed that the higher change in urban fraction between IGBP and EGIS, the higher the improvement in temperature performance, and the higher the urban fraction, the higher the effect of improving temperature performance of the urban parameterization scheme. 1.5-m temperature increased rapidly during the early morning due to increase of sensible heat flux in EXP2 compared to CTL. The MORUSES with EGIS (EXP3) provided best agreement with observations and represents a reasonable option for simulating the near surface temperature of urban area.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.315-329
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• 2015

We investigated the characteristics of meteorological conditions related to the strong downslope wind over the leeward side of the Taebaek Mountains during the period 2005~2010. The days showing the strong wind exceeding $14ms^{-1}$ in Gangwon province were selected as study cases. A total of 15 days of strong wind were observed at Sokcho, Gangneung, Donghae, and Taebaek located over the Yeongdong region. Seven cases related to tropical cyclone (3 cases) and heavy snowfall (2 cases) and heavy rainfall (2 cases) over the Yeongdong region were excluded. To investigate the characteristics of the remaining 8 cases, we used synoptic weather chart, Sokcho radiosonde, Gangneung wind profiler and numerical model. The cases showed no precipitation (or ${\leq}1mm\;day^{-1}$). From the surface and upper level weather chart, we found the pressure distribution of southern high and northern low pattern over the Korean peninsula and warm ridge over the Yeongdong region. Inversion layer (or stable layer) and warm ridge with strong wind were located in about 1~3 km (925~700 hPa) over mountains. The Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) indicated that warm core and temperature ridge with horizontal temperature gradient were $0.10{\sim}0.23^{\circ}C\;km^{-1}$ which were located on 850 hPa pressure level above mountaintop. These results were summarized as a forecasting guidance of downslope windstorm in the Yeongdong region.